Envision if as an oppossing coach you had the authority to literally use Michael Jordan’s talent against him. Or Wayne Gretzky’s. I am speaking of in their prime. It’s not a trick question. That describes what advanced analytics is and why all the supreme handicappers harness this edge.
If I could summarize what many angles in next gen handicapping boast in one word, it would be “counterintuitive.” Longstanding clients are already in the know. If one couldn’t even name one player or was untaught of the rules of a sport, she could still dominate betting by going contrary to normal better expectations. As an example, she could simply eyeball SU records, compare it to the pointspread and observing the line makes no sense, based on said, criterion, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them.
Case in point. Team A has a stronger winning percentage than Team B. Yet Team A is a home underdog. Squares will go giddy trusting the home underdogs are a “lock.” Sharps make the oddsmaker’s forte their own. We pros know that road favorites despite inferior records are 220-183-5 in the NBA. Because home court is worth 3-4 points, a team with the same record “should” be favorite at home.
As the sharp knows, that is fake news. Road favorites with an identical winning percentage as their opponent are 91-78-2. That’s a combined 311-261-7 using the oddmaker’s knowledge against them.
There are skilled handicappers out there and I have no problem admitting that many of them probe personnel matchups much better than I do. Their challenge from a handicapping standpoint is that oddsmakers know the talent discrepancies as well as anyone. The linesmakers are the Michael Jordans of handicapping, so to speak.
Rather than just scouting the teams, we know and exploit the strengths of the linesmaker and make their metier our own.
There are countless examples beyond the most basic one above. In short, if the point spread in comparison to the straight up records “just doesn’t make sense,” there is a very good chance it makes dollars instead.
The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place to go for best sports picks and vetted sportsbooks. He is the top expert on next generation handicapping.
The NY Mets are at the Atlanta Braves on ESPN. Jacob deGrom takes the bump for New York, with Mike Soroka starting for the home team.
New York is 3-7 this season for -5.5 units, while Atlanta is 7-3, including 5-0 at home. Despite all this, the Mets are -125 on the road with a total of 8 at Bovada. The public likes the home underdog with 59 percent of bets on Atlanta and 81 percent of the money. A whopping 81 percent of tickets are on the under, yet 77 percent of cash on the over, indicating very sharp money on a high-scoring game.
When a team is laying at least 115 on road, despite a winning percentage deficit of at least .300, going with the chalk is 82-36 for +34 units and 20.5 ROI. When a team is undefeated at home with at least five home wins, yet home underdogs, the road team is a perfect 5-0 all-time, with three of the wins by at least three runs. Both of these supersystems favor the Mets.
NY has an OBP of .343 last 10 games, compared to .316 for Atlanta. New York has gone under 6-0 with deGrom after scoring two or fewer runs previous game. Atlanta has won seven straight games on grass. New York has gone under 8-1 as road chalk. The Braves are 7-1 at home in series.
The teams and pitchers met on Opening Day, with NY winning 1-0. Hence deGrom enters with a 1.64 ER, Soroka 1.59. deGrom is 7-7 with a 1.90 ERA in 22 career starts to the Bravos, with Soroka 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts to the Metropolitans.
Underachieving slugger Yoenis Cespedes has left the Mets and is not expected to return.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. He has the AL Runline Game of the Month as the first named play since early March. Named plays have a 7.2 percent ROI all-time on JDP. Two NBA and five MLB. The first winner is 6:30 ET. Get the picks now
Joe Duffy has the AL Runline Game of the Month as the first named play since early March. Named plays have a 7.2 percent ROI all-time on JDP. Two NBA and five MLB. The first winner is 6:30 ET. Get the picks now
SAN FRANCISCO (CUETO +123) Colorado (Gonzalez) at MyBookie
Early season away dogs off loss is +175.71 for 12 ROI. Road team versus quality foe is +176.58.
Pretty good chance picks are done for the day! The quality of the slate always determines the number of picks. Yeah, we’ve had 12 in a day. Friday, two Wise Guys, an underdog screams out as does a runline where we get juice, plus a Major in MLB. Wise Guy is a Juicy Lucy. Previously referred as a Dandy Dog, a Juicy Lucy is either a moneyline underdog or runline favorite in which we get at least +140 juice. We changed the name to reflect it includes runline chalk.
Thanks to 2-1 on Wise Guys, we squeezed out winning day 7-of-8, with six being easily winning portfolios. I am 30-21 with eight winners of 130 or more. I am 7-2 with Wise guys, with four winners of 130 or more. Get the picks now
HOUSTON (MCCULLERS -170) LA Angels (Andriese) at Bovada
I hate chalk, but it’s always facts over agenda. Very large favorites since 2015 under specific circumstances that apply today are 1611-644 for +326.12 units and a 7 ROI. Hot road teams are 263-148 for 72.89 units and a 12.8 ROI since 2017. We found that in the post-steroid era, team streaks are more stable.
- Brewers-Cards joins Phillies-Jays and Nats-Marlins as Covid cancellations
- Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is eligible to return after Covid
- Damian Lillard will return for Blazers
- 28.9 points per game, 7.8 assists despite being slowed by injury before break
- 89 percent of money on Orlando Magic, 88 on Dallas
- 87 percent of cash on Sacramento OVER, 86 percent on Boston OVER
Joe Duffy is destroying your BM we are 28-19 with seven winning picks of 130 or more. I have had winning days 6-of-7 so far. I told you I spent the disaster researching and refining new systems.
Four Wise Guys among five MLB winners.Additional winner was added at 10:37. Get the picks now
Toronto-Washington OVER 9.5 (Fedde-Ryu) at Bet Now
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The over version goes over at a rate of 2489-2176-194.
Odds are courtesy of SportsBetting and can be found here:
Will there be a World Series?
First manager fired during 2020 regular season
Scott Servais +800
Brandon Hyde +900
Dave Roberts +900
Rick Renteria +900
Bud Black +1000
Derek Shelton +1200
Ron Roenicke +1200
Don Mattingly +1400
Ron Gardenhire +1400
Dave Martinez +2500
Luis Rojas +2500
Brian Snitker +2800
Charlie Montoyo +2800
Chris Woodward +3000
Mike Matheny +3000
Craig Counsell +3300
David Bell +3300
David Ross +3300
Mike Shildt +3300
Torey Lovullo +3300
Aaron Boone +4000
Bob Melvin +4000
Gabe Kapler +4000
Joe Girardi +4000
Joe Maddon +4000
Rocco Baldelli +4000
Dusty Baker +5000
Jayce Tingler +5000
Kevin Cash +5000
Terry Francona +5000
Will an MLB manager be fired in 2020?
Total MLB managers to be fired in 2020
How many games before first manager fired
There is no other way to say it: I’m just that much better than everyone else and NBA begins tomorrow! Joe Duffy rolls along at 20-14 with six winners of 130 or more.
13 winners led by three Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are in near unanimity considered the strongest bet in sports wagering by bookmakers, pro gamblers, oddsmakers, and fellow handicappers alike.
Kansas City-Detroit UNDER 9.5 (Duffy-Boyd) and GTBets
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 2866-2260-269.