Turkey day college and NFL market report. My word, OffshoreInsiders.com has the strongest industry bets in every football game, plus Duffy with massive college basketball portfolio.
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: NY Giants,
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Ole Miss
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Dallas -7 to -10; Ole Miss -5.5 to -1.5
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets.
There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
Below you will find a cornucopia of Thanksgiving Day props for the trio of NFL games, courtesy of at Betonline, the home of the opening line .
Also, speaking of being thankful…have you ever wondered which NFL fanbase complains the most about officiating?
Well, a semi-scientific Twitter study was recently conducted to find out which team’s fans whine about the refs the most, and the results are a bit surprising.
BetOnline conducted the study using geo-tagged Twitter data via an API trends software. From Week 1 to Week 11, the sampling compiled and analyzed tweets, hashtags and keyword phrases tracking negative fan tweets about NFL officiating for each team.
To find out who complains the most, the team looked at the total number of fan tweets (in general) and then determined what percentage of those tweets were complaints about refs.
For example, we looked at all tweets with the fan hashtag #ChiefsKingdom, that also included phrases like, “bad call,” “horrible call,” “bad officiating,” “horrible officiating,” “missed call,” “horrible refs,” “refs beat us,” “refs screwed us,” etc. Then repeated this for all the other teams and their hashtags.
🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Cleveland, Oklahoma City; Atlanta OVER
🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota; Indiana UNDER, Boston OVER
🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Chicago, Cleveland UNDER, Indiana UNDER
🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: New Orleans -5.5 to -10.5, LA Clippers -4.5 to -1
Onward to college hoops:
🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Arizona
🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Florida Gulf Coast
🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Miss State, South Florida
🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Abilene Christian +3 to -2.5, Cal Riverside +1 to -3.5, Kansas State -8.5 to -11.5
💰💰💰Top expert pick Already reduced to $299, get Turkey Week Special of Bet it Trinity Weekly for $269! Yes if you have current subscriptions, we will add that to the end of your account.In about 80 percent of cases, you are better beating the line moves and wagering early in the week. Yesterday, those who did not buy until Sunday got Atlanta as a winner and are 9-3, though officially my bets this week 8-3-1 NFL including Cowboys as 4:25 ET Game of the Year. Laying -1.5 they won 40-3!MNF side, NBA Wise Guy. 2:30 ET and two night college basketball added! Get the picks now
Thanksgiving week is one of the biggest in football betting. In between beating World Cup odds, here is the early steam report in NFL and college football betting from sportsbooks all over the world such as vetted LUX Sports.
Early NFL steam:
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LA Chargers, Tennessee, Miami; Minnesota UNDER
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington; Minnesota UNDER
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: No significant line moves yet
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: LA Rams, NY Jets; San Francisco UNDER
Early college football steam:
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LSU, Auburn, UNC
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Eastern Michigan -1.5 to +1.5, Utah State -14.5 to -16.5
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Boston College, USC
There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
College football top over and under teams at top sportsbooks for college football and NFL odds based on margin of cover.
Top over teams:
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Houston
9-2
+12.6
South Florida
7-3-1
+8.7
Toledo
6-5
+8.2
In terms of percentage, Rice, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Memphis, Colorado, Penn State, USC, Arkansas are all 8-3 to the over, tied for second to Houston. Rice has the highest cover margin of said teams, going over by an average of 6.0 points per game.
Top under teams in college football:
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Iowa State
2-9
-12
Marshall
2-9
-11.5
Virginia
2-7-1
-11.4
Troy
4-7
-10.1
Kentucky
1-10
-9.1
Colorado State is second in terms of under percentage at 1-9-1 but only by an average of -6.8 points per game.
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
This is the intel you get every damn day. Of course the ONLY loser is when a 28.5 dog explodes for the final eight points of the game for a horrific bad beat so we settle for 5-1. Did you read the intel? Joe Duffy, OffshoreInsiders.com
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
NFL
Wise Guy
TENNESSEE +3 Green Bay
Interconference Prime Time Game of the Year
Fade teams in a short week off an overtime game is 21-2. In fact, underdogs are 8-4 SU. Fade home teams that had good fortune based on penalties resulting in first downs last game is 554-432-35. Fading offenses as favorites with at least 90 more snaps is 223-173-10.
CBB
Major
CHARLESTON -3.5 Davidson
This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource. Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.
CREIGHTON -18.5 UC Riverside
Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our tremendous data-engineering model has our pick covering 62 percent of time by 22 points per game.
ARIZONA -28.5 Utah State
Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our best advanced computer model has Zona covering 64 percent of simulations by an average of 32 points.
NBA
Wise Guy
San Antonio-Sacramento OVER 236
Western Conference Total of the Month
When the total is much higher than that of the total of each teams last game, listen to what the oddsmakers are telling us because it goes over 595-413-52. Our top-rated simulator program has them going over 74 percent of time with an average of 250 points scored.
Major
Detroit-LA Clippers UNDER 216
Total relative to last two games goes under 393-237-21. Total relative to recent numbers goes under 2069-1410-148.
This is a basic theory that crosses over all sports and makes you and me a fortune in totals betting and each sports involves samples sizes of several thousand games.
NFL winner for Sunday, November 20 from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy.
Edit: revised line and location, the bet still applies with a strong angle.
CLEVELAND +7.5 Buffalo
Underdogs versus a great and red-hot offense is 165-101-8.
Best teams in NFL this year based on margin of cover:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
NY Jets
6-3
+7.1
Dallas
6-3
+5.1
The Titans and the Giants have the best spread winning percentages at 7-2 but only covering by an average of 1.8 points per game and 3.6 respectively. The Chargers are 6-3 but have a -4.9 margin of cover.
Best teams to bet against based on said criterion.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
LA Rams
2-6-1
-8.7
Green Bay
4-6
-5.8
LA Chargers
6-3
-4.9
Colts
4-6
-4.6
Yes the Chargers have an impressive spread record but a horrible spread margin. Conversely, Jacksonville is 3-7 to the number, but has a +3.3 margin of cover. Many believe this means the Jags are undervalued, while LA Chargers would be overvalued. New Orleans is tied for the second worst spread record at 3-7 but by only a -2.3 margin.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. 4:25 ET Game of the Year is among nine NFL winners led by four Wise Guys! Joe Duffy is widely accepted as the top college and pro football handicapper in history, hands down. Get the picks now
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Free winning bet from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is to go with:
MILWAUKEE -4 Cleveland
An angle that says to go with the more disappointing offense season to date is 449-342-16. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.
Our top power ratings have Milwaukee as -7.9 point favorite, giving the Bucks at very good 10 percent edge. Milwaukee covers an impressive 67 percent of simulations on our top computer model, winning by an average of 117-107. This is a very strong game insofar as our top two models matching up.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has at least five winning picks tonight. College football total, two college hoops sides, two NBA totals.Inspired by Billy Walters and the Vegas Computer Boys, Joe Duffy has been for decades the top data scientist in sports handicapping. Get the picks now
Top NBA over teams based on margin of cover.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Oklahoma City
9-5
+10.5
Boston
9-4-1
+10.4
Sacramento
6-6-1
+6.4
Many who compare records to margin of cover believe the Kings as an OVER team are good value. The Pistons, Hawks and are tied for second top over team with aforesaid Thunder based on percentage. Detroit goes 9-5-1 but by only 2.7 points per game, Atlanta 9-5 but by only 1.1.
Top NBA under teams based on said criterion.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
LA Clippers
3-12
-8.2
Portland
4-8-2
-5.1
Milwaukee
5-8
-4.9
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
The Eagles and the Bills lost this past week, but one is still the Super Bowl favorite.
SportsBetting updates its Super Bowl, conference, and division odds daily. Yesterday, the Eagles were +350 favorites for the NFL’s 52ndchampionship edition. Today, it’s back to the Bills, who outside of the last seven days had been the favorites since the day after Super Bowl LVI.
The Chiefs, victors of three in a row with the MVP favorite putting on weekly quarterback clinics, remain stuck in the Super Bowl odds’ second spot.
What’s interesting when looking at the NFL division odds is that outside of the AFC East, all the favorites have better than -200 (or 1-2) odds, possibly making the second half of the season not as interesting as the first half.
Buffalo is in third place in its division, yet still has -190 odds to take the AFC East. All division favorites have better than a 65% chance of becoming champs.
Here are the current odds and implied probabilities for each:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills -190 (65.5% chance Bills are division champs)
Miami Dolphins +225
New York Jets +1100
New England Patriots +1600
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens -500 (83.3% chance Ravens are division champs)
Cincinnati Bengals +350
Cleveland Browns +3300
Pittsburgh Steelers +4000
AFC South
Tennessee Titans -500 (83.3% chance Titans are division champs)
Jacksonville Jaguars +600
Indianapolis Colts +700
Houston Texans +25000
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs -2000 (95.2% chance Chiefs are division champs)
Los Angeles Chargers +700
Denver Broncos +6600
Las Vegas Raiders +10000
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles -350 (77.8% chance Eagles are division champs)
Dallas Cowboys +450
New York Giants +700
Commanders +6600
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings -5000 (98.0% chance Vikings are division champs)
Green Bay Packers +1200
Detroit Lions +3300
Chicago Bears +8000
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -400 (80.0% chance Bucs are division champs)
Atlanta Falcons +500
New Orleans Saints +900
Carolina Panthers +2500
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers -225 (69.2% chance 49ers are division champs)
For the first time in his young career, Jayson Tatum is the favorite to be named MVP.
Tatum’s Celtics are a on a tear, reeling off seven straight victories en route to the league’s best record.
The MVP odds at SportsBetting looked different Tuesday morning than they did Monday, when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic were basically co-favorites. Now, there is a crowded trio at the top of the board, led by Tatum.
Additionally, it looks as if Paolo Banchero has Rookie of the Year locked up, despite not playing for more than a week due to an ankle injury.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 37 points for the second consecutive night Tuesday to boost his Most Improved Player chances while Russell Westbrook remains the heavy favorite for Sixth Man of the Year.
#1 rated sportsbook for live betting. 1K signup bonus
Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.
You must be logged in to post a comment.