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November 27, 2007

Conference Championship Bettors Preview

From the standpoint of the sports better, the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com breaks down some key statistical comparisons for the conference championship games.

MAC

Central Michigan-Miami Ohio

The Chippewas have the upper hand in most offensive categories, but the RedHawks have the statistical advantage defensively.

CMU amasses 78.9 more total yards per game on .7 more yards per play. One of the more prominent areas is in rushing yards per attempt where Central has the edge by 1.1. Miami Ohio though relies much more on the big play. Despite completing 11.2 percent less of their passes, the RedHawks get 1.7 more passing yards per reception.

On defense, it’s Miami with a superiority of 94.3 fewer yards allowed per game on .8 less yards per play. They also allow a completion percentage of 7.2 less.

Conference USA

Tulsa-Central Florida

It’s yet another contest where one team has a fairly significant edge on offense, while the other gets the numbers their way on defense. Offensively, Tulsa has a yards per game pre-eminence if 124.9 total yards per game. But it’s because of 181.4 yards per game passing difference as UCF rushes for 56.5 more yards per game. The Golden Hurricanes do average 1.2 more yards per play, a telling statistic say most top gamblers.

However, likewise UCF accrues .5 more yards per rush, but Tulsa 2.3 more yards per pass and 3.6 more yards per catch.

The Golden Knights allow 102.1 fewer yards on .9 less yards per play allowed. Perhaps the biggest numerical disparity is in turnover ratio. Tulsa is -7, but UCF +5, a net advantage of 12 for Central.

ACC

Virginia Tech-Boston College

Although BC has an edge of 105.5 more total yards per game, Tech rushes for 27.8 extra yards. The Eagles get 7.6 more first downs per game. In the ever important yards per play category, it’s Boston College getting .7 more. Tech though has a pretty significant numerical dominance of 1.1 more yards per catch.

On defense, the check marks favor V Tech by 48.7 total yards per game and .4 yards per play. BC though allows 20.6 fewer rushing yards on a few half-yard less per attempt. The Hokies have a huge turnover margin upper hand by 10.

SEC

Tennessee-LSU

Numerically, the Tigers are better on both sides of the ball. LSU gets 44.8 more yards per game, though the Vols accumulate 27.8 more passing yards. The biggest discrepancy is in passing yards per reception where LSU gets 2.0 more. With Tennessee completing 7.3 higher percent of the passes, the overall offensive upper hand for LSU is fairly nominal.

Defensively LSU permits 121.8 fewer yards on 1.2 less yards per play. Tennessee is less vulnerable to the big play, allowing 1.3 fewer passing yards per attempt. LSU has a turnover ratio better by 12.

Big 12

Oklahoma-Missouri

These two teams are fairly close on paper. In fact, while Mizzou gets 49.8 more yards per game, Oklahoma accumulates .3 more yards per play. Oklahoma has the edge in both rushing yards per attempt and passing yards per attempt by .2 and 1.4 respectively and they also get 2.4 more passing yards per reception.

Also the Sooners have slight edges in most defensive categories including yards per game of 56.2 and .4 fewer yards per play allowed. Yet the Tigers allow .1 less passing yards per attempt and .4 less passing yards per reception.

By popular request, OffshoreInsiders.com brought back the college and NFL football-only packages through the Super Bowl for both Joe Duffy’s GodsTips and Stevie Vincent. Get the rest of the season beginning now just in time for Green Bay-Dallas and the conference championship games. Get it at OffshoreInsiders.com


November 25, 2007

NFL Injuries For November 25

The top handicapping experts of OffshoreInsiders.com give you NFL injuries for fantasy football players and sports bettors.

Titans-Bengals

Tennessee starting defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is a game time decision.

Raiders-Chiefs

Chiefs running back Larry Johnson is out. Of course his back-up Priest Holmes retired.

Seahawks-Rams

The Seahawks wide receiver D.J. Hackett is very probable. Running back Shaun Alexander is out again. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck missed practice early in the week, but will likely play with bruised ribs.

Vikings-Giants

Will superstar Adrian Peterson make his return for Minnesota? Not likely tells Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine.com. Peterson is very doubtful.

Reports say the Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress’ ankle has gotten worse and will be limited. The huge story is long-time scorephone sports handicapping expert Sean Michaels is the No. 1 football handicapper this year. The NFL Game of the Year goes from him on the Vikings-Giants game. He’s selling it for $50, but the MasterLockLine has it for just $16 part of a package of top sports service plays. Click now to purchase

Bills-Jaguars

Buffalo star running back Marshawn Lynch is out.

Saints-Panthers

The Saints running back Reggie Bush most likely gets the start but a final decision will be made during warm-ups. Panthers quarterback Vinny Testaverde was added to the injury list after his back tightened up. His status will also be determined after warm-ups. Stiff David Carr is available.

Ravens-Chargers

The Ravens are without starting quarterback Steve McNair and tight end Todd Heap. Cornerback Chris McAlister is a game time decision.

Browns-Texans

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Broncos-Bears

Denver has some serious issues at running back. Running back Travis Henry is out and Selvin Young is a game time decision.

Patriots-Eagles

Eagles signal caller Donovan McNabb it out. A.J. Feeley gets the start. The top sports service on the planet, GodsTips has a rare total on this game. They are also the hottest sports service going a shocking 50-24 with Wise Guy plays, many were moneyline dogs. Click now to purchase

Redskins-Buccaneers

Wide receiver James Thrash it out for the Skins.


November 17, 2007

VegasInsider Betting Info

We will update NFL injuries in the morning for fantasy football and pointspread handicappers. For anyone who is ready to beat the sportsbooks and who handicaps the NFL on their own we preesnet the NFL betting information compiled by sports betting expert Joe Duffy and Mike Godsey, the top NFL handicapper, each of GodsTips.com

Cardinals-Bengals

The Cardinals win last week not only was another easy winner as GodsTips NFL Game of the Year, but it snapped their three-game straight up losing streak. Arizona has lost 8-of-9 to the AFC, but their only win was in Week 4 to Pittsburgh. That game was one of the few moneyline releases GodsTips has had this year, a huge +270 winner.

Cincinnati is 10-3 outright in their last 13 to the NFC. Though they are 1-4 on the road this season, the Bengals are 2-2 at home. For those who bet fourth quarter sides and totals, note that surprisingly, the Cardinals lead the conference and are second overall to New England with 85 fourth quarter points.

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Browns-Ravens

Baltimore has won four straight at home in the series by a combined 103-46. The Ravens though enter with a three-game losing streak, putting up just seven points each of the last two weeks. Kyle Boller gets the start for Baltimore at QB as Steve McNair is out.

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Panthers-Packers

In one of the strangest stats in the NFL, the road team is 9-1 straight up and against the spread in the Panthers games. Green Bay has won 12-of-13 going back to the end of last season.

Saints-Texans

The Saints had their four-game winning streak snapped last week losing at home to the St. Louis Rams. They are 1-5 their last six to the AFC.

Houston is off a bye, but is 1-4 straight up following the week off. Houston is 1-5 at home to the AFC. This is a Houston defense that allowed just 80 yards per game on the ground in their first four games, but 159.6 in their last five.

Chiefs-Colts

Kansas City has won two straight road games and in fact the road team is 5-1 straight up in their last six. The Colts have gone from thinking 16-0 to trying to stop a two-game losing streak. However, the Colts are probably much better than their record as their six wins are by an average of 17.4 and their two losses by 3.0.

Brody Croyle will likely get the start at QB for the Chiefs this season. We will double check key injuries in the morning at OffshoreInsiders.com

Chargers-Jaguars

After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have squeezed out four wins in their last five. Jacksonville is expected to get back quarterback David Garrard. GodsTips, the premier NFL service of all time, has the AFC Game of the Year on this game. Last week, the NFL Game of the Year won when Arizona beat Detroit by 10. Detroit though was GodsTips NFC Game of the Year on Sept. 23 when they beat the Redskins. Continue the domination with the AFC Game of the Year. Click now to purchase

Raiders-Vikings

Oakland is 17-56 straight up since going to the Super Bowl, the worst record in that span. All-everything running back Adrian Peterson is out for Minnesota. Minnesota is 1-7 their last eight to the AFC. The only win though was this year to San Diego, which just so happened to be GodsTips NFL Upset of the Year. GodsTips is the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as the top NFL sports service of all time.

In starting out 2-2, the Raiders averaged scoring 25.5 points per game. Since then, they’ve lost five straight averaging 11.2 points per game.

Giants-Lions

The Giants must bounce back after their six-game winning streak has snapped when Dallas beat them by double digits at home. There is a clear-cut reason the Giants are playing better. In five games since returning from an injury, Giants running back Brandon Jacobs is averaging 103.8 yards, three times passing the century mark.

Detroit has had a three-game winning streak at Arizona snapped. Sharp players knew that was coming and cleaned the sportsbooks as it was the NFL Game of the Year on the Cardinals from the top sports betting service in the world, GodsTips.com

Detroit has won both meetings this century by a combined 25 points. Detroit is 4-0 at home.

Buccaneers-Falcons

Tampa is off a bye week, but they are only 6-12 straight up following a week off. Atlanta won both games last year in the series by a combined 31-9. Tampa still holds a 5-2 straight up edge in Hotlanta. Atlanta enters with a two-game winning streak.

Dolphins-Eagles

Miami is winless in nine games, but five losses are by three points. The Fins though are 6-3 outright on the road to the other conference since 2003.

Steelers-Jets

The 7-2 Steelers are on a three-game winning streak. Pittsburgh is 17-2 all-time to the Jets. This includes postseason play. They’ve held the Jets to an average of 5.6 points in the last seven meetings.

Redskins-Cowboys

Washington has alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, meaning they are “due” for a win. For those who bet quarter lines, note that Dallas far and away leads the NFL with 104 points in the third quarter, 34 more than the No. 2 team Indianapolis.

Rams-49ers

St. Louis is off their first win of the year. After averaging 11.3 points per game in their fist seven games, they’ve averaged 28.5 the last two.

After a 2-0 start, the Niners have lost seven in a row. The 49ers are 15-42 straight up going back to 2004.

Bears-Seahawks

Chicago has won three straight road games. The road team is 5-0 in their last five games. Chicago won both games last year (including postseason). Running back Shaun Alexander is out for Seattle.

Patriots-Bills

The undefeated Patriots are off a bye week. They have won 12 straight regular season games since last year. Guess who has the second longest winning streak in the conference at four? It’s the Bills.

Don’t look for Buffalo to win this one though. New England is on an 8-0 tear in the series by a combined 232-76.


November 14, 2007

Controversies and Scandals Have Lessons in Handicapping


Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they can be summed up in what we preach time and time again. The key to successful sports betting is getting an edge as often as possible.

This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive about the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise every source to get the accurate lowdown.

Coaches believe the more he knows about the injury status of his and his opponent’s key players, the more of an edge his team will get. It’s the same way with gamblers against their sportsbook opponent.

It’s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy and likely soon-to-be former Texas A&M football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant. Investing is sports scores is much like Wall Street betting. “Inside information” that coaches and refs have access to is the sports broker’s version of insider trading.

So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don’t get the state’s evidence directly from a coach or referee that we are out of luck? The answer is absolutely not. “Inside” information is far from the only way to get the upper hand on betting the odds.

A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because information is public does not mean it’s widely circulated.

So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the odds have been posted, often somewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in response. We’ve long touted Google News as our favorite aggregator of sports betting information such as injuries, expert analysis on how teams match up, motivation recognition and other very useful bullet points.

However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to compete with Google News. Replacing their “Sitelines” section, ESPN has partnered with Topix to create “ESPN local”. This new feature aggregates articles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google News still reigns supreme, but the ESPN/Topix synergy has potential for the handicapper.

We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an example of a coach pulling out all the stops to get the leg up on the competition or more accurately to counter the eminence of their foe.

Georgia finally ended Florida’s series domination in college football. In said game, the Bulldogs had a choreographed excessive celebration penalty after their first touchdown. Head coach Mark Richt admitted he told the team, “I expect you guys to celebrate to the point where the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.”

Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his team because he felt they needed to play with more passion. He did not specifically verify, but we strongly suspect that the fact that Florida had won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1.

The handicapping ramifications are to never underestimate the importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players on both Florida and Georgia were being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gone through several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly Richt knew that a well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one team and a “culture of losing” from the other.

Sports bettors should not completely disregard historical data even if the period precedes every player and coach who will affect that outcome of the game being handicapped. I honestly believe if Georgia had the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the need to manufacture boastfulness and confidence.

Then there was the short-lived, though periodic speculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home games. For our purposes, the veracity of these accusations is not as relevant as the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if the Colts are bending rules.

Again, crowd noise can give a home team—we will say it again—“the edge”. Few coaches or players will dispute the affect of the “12th man” in football or the “6th man” in basketball.

This is why we love it when we read that a team has for example “only the third sellout in two years” or that the small town mayor held a noon pep rally the day of a big game.

Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be affected by a pep rally, but such seemingly innocuous events are symptoms of how significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going to be.

In college, we always keep an eye out for when the non-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student body is on winter break. The level of home court and home field advantage is fluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower profile schools where sellouts are far from a given.

What the average gambler takes for granted, the sharp player yearns for. No edge is too banal for smart money players. Best of all, one need not always have access to a private booster newsletter or collude with a rogue official. So often the most indispensable information to the gambler can be in the fourth paragraph of a squad’s hometown newspaper or within the official team press release.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers and free sports betting information.