The industry has undergone many changes since I got started many years ago. A journeyman handicapping by the name of Brandon Link approaches a Hollywood producer and as Brandon Lang becomes an overnight success, the kind of marketing coup the likes of Jim Feist, Wayne Allen Root or Stu Feiner used to be able to pull off.

Covers com and Vegas Insider were probably the first two major sports betting sites on the internet. Vegasinsider shot themselves by getting into bed with the likes of Wayne Root. WWW covers com in now in bankruptcy and many other sports betting sites are struggling.

Top sportsbooks are suffering thanks to anti-gambling legislation. Sportsbook com was the biggest for a long time. BetUs Sportsbook is now up there with Bodog Sportsbook now known as NewBodog replacing defunct BetOnSports as industry leaders.

Others listed on www.linetrackers.com include BetCris and Olympic Sportsbook, AKA the Greek. WSEX is a big international book as well.

I particularly like Johnny-come-lately like this Jonathan Stone and his stone cold locks or Sports Memo comes out of nowhere.

Regardless, while the squares like the bells and whistles of Brandon Lang, the sharpies will always have OffshoreInsiders.com

Sports handicapping news and notes for college football betting comes directly from the private clipboard of OffshoreInsiders.com

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.

Missouri-Illinois

Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las Vegas sports bettors and online gamblers, the consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois. “There is a lot of pressure on Missouri in this game. I see serious upset potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment. Although he has 15 starters back, only one offensive lineman returns at his original position.

Houston-Oregon

Houston must replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high powered Oregon team, trying to match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum battling for the No. 1 spot. They have thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has been experimenting with a new 4-2-5 defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in an unfamiliar alignment.

Baylor-TCU

Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs. Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”. Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com, generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a blowout or to keep a game close.

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili, the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson is out with personal issues. He was supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

For free sports betting picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com

Sports handicapping news and notes for college football betting comes directly from the private clipboard of OffshoreInsiders.com

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.

Missouri-Illinois

Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las Vegas sports bettors and online gamblers, the consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois. “There is a lot of pressure on Missouri in this game. I see serious upset potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment. Although he has 15 starters back, only one offensive lineman returns at his original position.

Houston-Oregon

Houston must replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high powered Oregon team, trying to match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum battling for the No. 1 spot. They have thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has been experimenting with a new 4-2-5 defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in an unfamiliar alignment.

Baylor-TCU

Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs. Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”. Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com, generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a blowout or to keep a game close.

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili, the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson is out with personal issues. He was supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

For free sports betting picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com

The Bears have a much more difficult schedule than a year ago when they won 13 games but the NFC North is so weak that it will be difficult for Chicago not to win 10 or 11 games and capture a third straight division title. (2006 regular season records in parentheses):

CHICAGO BEARS (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): It was a memorable off-season for the Bears who dispatched team offensive MVP Thomas Jones, took a hard line with disgruntled LB Lance Briggs, and parted ways with troubled DT Tank Johnson. Chicago was second in the NFL in points scored last year, although leading the league in points off turnovers was the main reason for that success. Cedric Benson takes over at RB for Jones with much maligned Rex Grossman still behind center. The Bears will win with their solid defense but the specter of just one Super Bowl loser even making the post-season in the past six years, looms over their heads.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 68-76
ATS: 73-64-7
HF: 19-18-1
HD: 21-13
AF: 4-4-2
AD: 28-29-4
Sportsbook Buster: The Bears are a combined 17-2-1 ATS versus AFC West teams (San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland), all of whom they play this year.
NFL Betting Angle: Chicago is just 1-6 as a favorite after a bye week. This year, the Bears are at Oakland (Nov. 11) after a week off.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS): First year Head Coach Mike McCarthy’s West Style offense helped the Packers win twice as many games as the previous season but continued improvement could be difficult to attain this year. QB Brett Favre is still the mainstay of an offense that will miss RB Ahman Green and doesn’t have a stud at wide receiver. The line is a work in progress. On defense, the Packers improved dramatically once DT Cullen Jenkins moved outside, finishing in the middle of the pack (so to speak), statistically. This is not a very good team but this is not a tough division, either.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 84-60
ATS: 68-72-4
HF: 29-3-1-1
HD: 4-6-1
AF: 14-17-2
AD: 21-18
Sportsbook Buster: The Packers are 6-0 ATS versus the Redskins, who they play Oct. 14.
NFL Betting Angle: Green Bay has failed to cover seven straight games as a home underdog.

DETROIT LIONS (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS): Offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system did not work well in Detroit where a weak offensive line was responsible for the Lions finishing dead last in the league in rushing. Head Coach Rod Marinelli was equally disappointed by his freshly installed defensive scheme which finished 30^th in the NFL in points allowed. Detroit fans are hoping that a full year under the new systems will yield better results this season and they may be right.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 46-98
ATS: 68-73-3
HF: 11-17-1
HD: 26-16-1
AF: 0-6
AD: 31-34-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Lions have covered five straight games against the Buccaneers, who they play at home, Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle: Detroit has proven to be a solid home underdog and terrible home favorite over the last nine years.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS): Second year Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress, the offensive architect in Philadelphia, hopes that the addition of draft choices RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) and WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina) will improve an attack that ranked just 26^th in scoring last season. Having Tarvaris Jackson as your starting QB could be a problem, though. The defense lead the NFL against the run but was last against the pass last season. A better pass rush is needed if Minnesota is to stay ahead of Detroit in the fight to avoid the NFC North basement.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 79-65
ATS: 67-74-3
HF: 30-28-1
HD: 8-5
AF: 12-19-2
AD: 17-22-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS versus the Cowboys, who they play in Dallas, Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle: Minnesota is a bad road team ATS, especially as an away favorite.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

Article is courtesy of the Greek Sportsbook one of the few sportsbooks good enough to get the highest endorsement from the wagering experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

Granted, New Orleans isn’t going to surprise anyone this year but with a solid cast, a new winning attitude, and only Carolina as serious division opposition, the Saints should march to another NFC South title. The Panthers look good enough to battle for an NFC wild card. (2006 regular season records in parentheses):

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS): Sean Payton did the impossible in New Orleans last season, turning a moribund 3-13 team into a Super Bowl contender. With the return of QB Drew Brees, twin RB threats Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and emerging WR star Marques Colston, the offense is lethal. The defense also showed improvement under first year coordinator Gary Gibbs but lacked aggression, finishing 31^st in the NFL in takeaways in 2006. The line, led by Charles Grant and Will Smith, is solid but the Saints need more big-play potential at linebacker and in the secondary. Still, an offense as potent as New Orleans’ will win a lot of games.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 64-80
ATS: 69-72-3
HF: 14-24-1
HD: 10-16-2
AF: 9-6
AD: 32-25
Sportsbook Buster: The Saints are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games versus the 49ers, who they play in San Francisco, Oct. 28.
NFL Betting Angle: New Orleans has been a miserable bet at home, compiling just a 24-40-3 record ATS the last nine seasons.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (8-8 SU, 5-9-2 ATS): Injuries ravaged the Panthers and the team that made it to the Super Bowl a year earlier couldn’t even make to a winning record in 2006. The offense struggled last year with inconsistent play from QB Jake Delhomme and a ground game that finished 24^th in the NFL, prompting Head Coach John Fox to fire offensive coordinator Dan Henning and replace him with Jeff Davidson. The Carolina defense was as good as the offense was bad last year with DE Julius Peppers leading the way. The Panthers also have a quality secondary and hope that No. 1 draft choice Jon Beason (Miami) will be the playmaker they need at linebacker.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 64-80
ATS: 71-66-7
HF: 20-27-1
HD: 13-9-2
AF: 8-12-1
AD: 27-19-3
Sportsbook Buster: The Panthers are 6-0 ATS versus the Saints, their last half-dozen meetings.
NFL Betting Angle: Carolina is 3-12 ATS as a favorite of between four and seven points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS): While the Saints were going from worst to first, the Buccaneers were heading in the opposite direction, from first to worst last year. Head Coach Jon Gruden hopes that savvy QB Jeff Garcia, who the Buccaneers acquired through free agency, will be able to run his complex West Coast offense with more precision than Chris Simms or Bruce Gradkowski did in 2006. Tampa Bay has gotten old on defense, falling from the top 10 in the league for the first time in a decade last season while ranking 31^st in sacks with just 25.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 77-67
ATS: 69-69-6
HF: 30-26-2
HD: 9-2-1
AF: 15-18
AD: 15-21-2
Sportsbook Buster: The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS versus the Rams, who they play at home, Sept. 23.
NFL Betting Angle: Tampa Bay was 3-1 ATS last year and is 9-2-1 ATS the last nine seasons in the role of a home underdog.

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS): The Falcons didn’t figure to be a playoff contender with QB Mike Vick so their fortunes are even dimmer now that Vick is likely to miss the season defending himself against a federal indictment for dog-fighting sand gambling. New Head Coach Bobby Petrino will have to overhaul an offense that has been dependent on Vick since his arrival in Atlanta seven years ago. The defense, which played well last year, gets a new coordinator in Mike Zimmer, from Dallas.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 70-73-1
ATS: 68-70-6
HF: 22-21-2
HD: 10-17
AF: 9-6-1
AD: 27-26-3
Sportsbook Buster: The Falcons are 4-0 ATS versus the Lions at home their last four meetings. The teams meet in Tampa Bay, Nov. 11.
NFL Betting Angle: Atlanta is 9-2 as an underdog after a bye week. This year, Atlanta travels to Tampa Bay, Nov. 4, after its open week.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

Article is courtesy of the Greek Sportsbook one of the few sportsbooks good enough to get the highest endorsement from the wagering experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

Disposed NBA referee Tim Donaghy is being displaced off the sports gambling headlines for the time being. Though it’s safe to say the NBA betting scandal that may or may not involve point shaving is only temporarily on page two, it’s now the Toledo point shaving allegations that are coming back to the forefront.

Former Toledo and current Tampa Bay Buccaneers bubble QB Brad Gradkowski is under the microscope. He has emphatically denied any role or knowledge of the supposed point shaving.

This is coming on the heels of highly esteemed online gambling casino and sportsbook Bodog Sportsbook losing their URL in a legal dispute.

The Day that Will Live in Infamy in online sports gambling was of course when the DOJ went after sportsbook giant BetOnSports, essentially shutting down their operations. Now online gambling pioneer the Shrink takes a look at the new book, “The Rise and Fall of BetOnSports”.

Lost in the PETA circus of Michael Vick pleading guilty to dog fighting charges is that Vick was likely involved in bookmaker high stakes bets on the outcome. He will address the gambling charges with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

All this overshadows that today is the beginning of the college football betting season not to mention NFL betting continues as the preseason wraps up.

More good news is that fantasy football geeks can now bet their expertise at Vegas sportsbooks. Of course offshore sportsbooks have had fantasy football proposition bets for years.

It’s the favorite time of the year for sports bettors. Luckily for sharp players there are enough football betting dunces to keep the books in business, but OffshoreInsiders.com will make sure you are among the elite college football bettors as we give you free premium sports service selections.

Today, the only handicapper to achieve the status of Master Handicapper, Joe Duffy of GodsTips says goes with Utah State getting 6.5 against UNLV. His premium pick analysis is as follows.

The Aggies finally have something to look forward to and so do their fans. After years of neglect, USU took a big step toward respectability and competitiveness by opening the $12.5 million North End Zone Complex at Romney Stadium. It’s only the second time since 1998 they open at home, so this is a big one.

Utah State coach Brent Guy hasn’t taken any shortcuts while trying to rebuild the program. His first three recruiting classes have focused on freshmen instead of transfers. That hasn’t helped Guy’s record, but this will be his deepest team yet.

The Aggies have won seven games in the last three seasons, but two of those victories came against Rebels. In all, Utah State is 9-1 in its last 10 games against UNLV. Utah State is much better at home than on the road and we see no reason why their mastery of UNLV won’t continue.

More college football free picks as well as premium sports service plays are at OffshoreInsiders.com

This time last year, sports handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl was the preferred betting syndicate advisor in reference to college football picks and NFL picks. Unfortunately, Doctor Bob had a mediocre year at best for those who wager on football.

Simultaneously, Stevie Vincent a veteran football handicapping expert was turning the sports betting industry, both Vegas sportsbooks and online sportsbooks, upside down with his revolutionary forensic handicapping.

Vincent’s meteoric rise, among high rollers betting on sports, was not overnight. Ironically Vincent was successful at handicapping sports but hesitant to gamble for personal reasons. He did admit a “family member” had a major gambling problem but “not sports betting” so he was resistant to bet.

He was Executive Editor of the famed scorephone Tailgate Party, which in the pre-internet days was the choice for real-time sports betting information and free football gambling picks.

MVP Sportsbook had a program for would-be sports handicappers. Their model was to build and market a site for anyone who wanted to open a sports service. In return, parent company, the VO-Group would have exclusive rights to advertise their sportsbook and online casinos on such site.

Vincent reluctantly started his career as a professional sports handicapper via MVP Sportsbook, which was under the direction of online sportsbook pioneer Dalton Wagner.

Joe Duffy, now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, took advantage of their marketing relationship with VO-Group when he was General Manager of Freescoreboard.com.

“We used their program as sort of an American Idol for sports handicappers.” MVP had about 300 handicappers in their program. According to Duffy, “About 98 percent of them were William Hung,” a reference to American Idol’s most infamous contestant. Continuing with his American Idol metaphor, “There was really only one Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood.”

While other handicappers made sales, Vincent was the only tipster who got clients to continue to renew on a consistent basis. “The quality of his reports, both in winning and insight was truly second to none” Duffy asserts.

“We added three handicappers from the MVP program, but Vincent was the crown jewel,” said Duffy.

Despite the presence of elite handicappers and sports services the Animal, Leo Shafto, GodsPicks (now GodsTips), and the SuperLockLine, Vincent found a niche and had a renewal rate most touts only fantasize about.

Then an even bigger breakthrough happened. University of PA forensic economist Justin Wolfers wrote a research paper in which he claimed showed overwhelming statistical evidence of point shaving in college athletics.

Vincent used some of the basic ideas in the paper to fine tune his own handicapping techniques and developed the ground-breaking science of forensic handicapping. “It was a natural progression to what I was already doing,” says Vincent modestly.

Vincent, whose plays are released on BetOnSports360.com has become the “unmitigated frontline source of sports bets for the world’s biggest betting syndicates” according to wagering expert Cy McCormick.

Vincent claims several online sportsbooks have offered him significant sums of money to give them the plays before he releases to his clients. He declined. “They will have to purchase my plays and will have equal access as everyone else.”

Here are news and notes from the standpoint of pointspread investors. Information is from the private clipboard of the OffshoreInsiders.com sports handicappers and sports betting services.

Redskins-Jaguars

Mike Godsey, the top professional football betting analyst reports that the Redskins will have key players on the field longer than most teams to in the preseason finale. Quarterback Jason Campbell, third year player, but first year starter, will see his most extensive time of the preseason. Oft-injured running back Clinton Portis is also expected to see his first snaps of exhibition play.

Cowboys-Vikings

Over/under bettors, note that the Cowboys do have a big battle for the No. 3 QB position. Look for Matt Moore and Richard Bartel to be given a chance to air it out.

Chiefs-Rams

Chief’s starting quarterback Damon Huard will not play at all as he’s nursing a sore calf. Veteran tackle Kyle Turley will play despite missing practice Tuesday for personal reasons.

Cardinals-Broncos

The Cardinals will play their starters on each side of the ball for one or two series. Denver backup signal caller Patrick Ramsey, an experienced starter, will get little or no playing time. Preston Parsons and Darrell Hackney will get most of the playing time at center. They have four completions combined this preseason.

49ers-Chargers

Cy McCormick, who is on the “winners list” of most online sportsbooks, reports that San Francisco’s starting units for each side of the ball will play 12 snaps or the entire first quarter, whichever comes first.

Bills-Lions

Buffalo’s starters will play two series at the most. J.P. Losman will get the start at QB, Craig Nall will also play a series or two than rookie Trent Edwards goes the rest of the way. Cornerback Terrence McGee is out and wise receiver Lee Evens is very unlikely to play.

What are the biggest sports service plays in the industry? MasterLockLine.com gives you only the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. You literally have the power of 620 sports services behind every selection

Preseason results are worthless in predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12 straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons.

While in the NBA and MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL. The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.

From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three Super Bowls. Their preseason mark in those years was 7-12-1.

While appearing in four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In practice contests: 6-12.

Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All he did after that was--in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom Brady fashion--efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl victory.

One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player rotation information is obtainable.

However the actual results hold no value in beating the regular season NFL odds. Even the Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in false positives or negatives.

A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is a good example. Arizona is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.

What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, is enemy No. 1 at the sports books. His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports service GodsPicks.

Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0 lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.

Twins-Indians

Cleveland’s Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late, sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie Vincent, one of the OffshoreInsiders.com top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers. Texas has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.

Angels-Mariners

The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.

Reds-Pirates

Cincinnati enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight games.

Mets-Phillies

Philadelphia southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP dictates. Fresh off the DL, he takes on the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly, Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in 2007.

Braves-Marlins

Florida is ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18 innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is 1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their previous 10 games.

Brewers-Cubs

Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago. Over his last two starts he’s given up three runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.

Nationals-Dodgers

Washington’s Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to OffshoreInsiders.com

ALPHARETTA, GA—Joe Duffy is the leading authority on sports gaming strategy and issues related to sports betting. An expert guest on several nationally syndicated radio programs, his articles have appeared on top websites and publications all over the world.

Since the bombshell that NBA ref Tim Donaghy is being investigated in a gambling scandal, speculation on how he may have affected the betting outcome of games has been rampant. Veteran sports betting expert Joe Duffy brings an educated view.

Articles related to recent scandals involving possible point shaving include:

NBA Totals Would Be the Easiest For Maverick Ref to Exploit

I will try a different approach of getting into the mind of a potential game fixer. If hypothetically I wanted to influence the betting outcome of an NBA game with the aid of an NBA ref, how would I do it without leaving telltale signs?

Rampant Speculation about Donaghygate

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Blackmail, Not Just Bribery Can Lead to Pointshaving

Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game. This is not necessarily so.

Response To Professor’s Contention About Point Shaving

The pointspread is not and will never be a prediction on the outcome of the game. It is a “prediction” on what the spread needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of money on each side. The public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this is accounted for in the line.

It is Good to Pick Bad

Every wannabe detective thinks they found the statistical smoking gun that Tim Donaghy pointshaved games. These conclusions are based in no small part on the epiphany that big underdogs cover at a disproportionate rate. No kidding, sharp players have known that for years.

ABOUT JOE DUFFY:

Joe Duffy is CEO of AJA Enterprises, which produces many of the top sites in the sports betting industry: OffshoreInsiders.com, JoeDuffy.net, another others. He is founding GM of Scorephone.com/Freescoreboard.com, which was the nation’s premier audiotext sports information source.

ABOUT OFFSHOREINSIDERS.COM:

OffshoreInsiders.com is the premier source for free sports picks, live betting odds, real time sports scores and free sports gaming information.

MEDIA NOTE:

Radio, TV, print and Internet media are free to quote any articles written by Joe Duffy. Please attribute to Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com Duffy is available for media inquires by contacting him at joeduffy@joeduffy.net

The premier sports handicapping experts of Covers-Experts.com take a look at some early betting news and notes for the first week of college football.

Tennessee-California

It’s of course a huge revenge game for the Golden Bears. Last year, the Volunteers crushed Cal in the season opener 35-18. Cal returns 16 starters, eight on one of the top offenses in the country.

UL Lafayette-South Carolina

South Carolina free safety Emanuel Cook, an All-SEC selection last year as a freshman, is suspended as is Gamecocks starting quarterback Blake Mitchell.

Washington State-Wisconsin

New Badgers quarterback Tyler Donovan has only two starts under his belt. However, he does have proven playmakers returning to help with his transition: tight ends Travis Beckum and Andy Crooks, tailback P.J. Hill and wideouts Paul Hubbard and Luke Swan.

Utah-Oregon State

The Utes were to return 10 starters on offense. On the other hand, offensive lineman Jason Boone was lost for the season. According to Stevie Vincent, “All reports are that Utah is much more prepared for the season then they were last year.” Vincent has replaced football handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl as the lead betting source for large betting syndicates.

Kansas State-Auburn

Moneyline bettors will want to note that Auburn is 11-1 in home night games this century, including four wins to nationally ranked teams. They’ve won 12-of-14 and 20 of their last 23 SU at home. However, note that Auburn must replace RB Kenny Irons and their all-time leading receiver Courtney Taylor. Returning players accounted for only 42.5 percent of their rushing yards last year and 55.6 percent of their receptions. Also four starters are gone from their offensive line.

Eastern Michigan-Pittsburgh

EMU was 1-11 last year and has lost 35 straight games straight up to BCS conference teams. Eastern Michigan though has a more proven QB as their starter Andy Schmitt started 7-of-12 games last year. Pittsburgh has a virgin QB Bill Stull and a rebuilt linebacking unit.

Marshall-Miami

Master college football handicapper Joe Duffy of GodsTips reports that new Miami coach Randy Shannon plans on playing both true and redshirt freshman. “That backdoor could be wide open” says Duffy of a potential pointspread cover for Marshall, while the Hurricanes are breaking in the new talent.

Premium college football sports service plays are available from the nation’s top ranked sports handicapping experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2008 Democratic nomination for US President according to one of the leading sportsbooks. Clinton is a prohibitive -275 favorite. Master handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is best known as the top American sports punter and sports betting handicapper, but has shown to be quite fair and balanced in political handicapping as well.

“This far removed from the primary elections; I do not remember a non-incumbent who was this close to being a betting lock” says the sports betting expert of Mrs. Clinton.

BetUs Sportsbook lists Barack Obama next at +190. The only potential presidential candidate who could beat Clinton for the Democratic nomination is Al Gore. The former Vice President under popular Democratic two-term President Bill Clinton, Gore has not declared his candidacy.

Bumbling John Edwards is +700 according to the oddsmakers. Dark horses include Joseph Biden at +2500, Mike Gravel at +3500 and Bill Richardson at +3500. Gadfly Dennis Kucinich is given as much chance of winning as Michael Vick. There are betting odds on neither.

While the war on terror is the main issue in the campaign, let’s hope the winner has views on legal sports gambling that are in the same camp as Ron Paul, another dark, dark horse presidential hopeful or even in tune with the pro online gambling views of Libertarian Wayne Root.

Root, a former employee of Jim Feist, owns a sports betting site.

If only the oddsmakers were as clueless as the media scribes and the talking suits. Why can’t Mike Lupica, Len Pasquarelli or one of their minions such as Oscar Dooley post the online sports betting odds on whether and when Michael Vick will play again?

After hearing all the doomsday predications about Mike Vick’s future, I was disappointed to see that BetUs Sportsbook has much more reasonable odds of even money on “Will M Vick ever throw another pass as an NFL QB?”

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com says, “Let me make this perfectly clear. Barring an act of God, the chances of Vick playing in the NFL again are 100 percent.”

Multi-millionaires, with a dream team collection of lawyers, do not serve long jail terms. This is especially when the victims are not human beings. Leonard Little killed a person when driving drunk. He’s still in the NFL.

Ray Lewis was charged with murder—also of a human being. With high society attorneys, he was able to plead down. Now the same hacks who are writing Vick’s professional obituary tell us how Lewis is one of the great leaders in the NFL.

How long with the NFL suspend Vick? The online sportsbook betting odds of one-to-six months is tempting at +10,000 though admittedly it will likely be longer.

But let’s get back to having to bet only -120 with the juice as to No. 7 playing again. Vick will find religion, declare his repentance and most importantly assert how much he’s matured. The lifelong underachiever’s insistence that’s he’s grown up with be music to the ears of any coach or GM in need of a quarterback.

I’m still searching to see if any of the online sports betting outfits will post long odds on which team Vick will play for. Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank has a lot of his Home Depot residuals invested in Vick.

When Vick said it was head coach Dan Reeves responsible for his shortcomings, Blank fired Reeves. Then the Falcons’ signal caller threw Reeves successor Jim Mora, Jr. under the bus. Mora became unemployed.

Blank can talk the tough talk now, but he will be first in line to forgive and forget the kid he’s coddled since the day the twain met. Plus while Vick spends minimal time in the federal detention center, the Dirty Birds will lose more than enough to draft a blue chip wide receiver as the yellow ribbon ‘round Vick’s old oak tree.

Vick starts more games the rest of his career than Joey Harrington does.

When the Tim Donaghy scandal broke, NBA Commissioner David Stern held his somber press conference concerning the alleged “rogue, isolated criminal”. Sounding more like Howard Stern, David clearly has replaced Senator Bill Frist as the current poster child for online sports betting hypocrisy.

Stern asserted that is was his understanding the Donaghy and his associates bets were “not placed in Vegas”. It’s been inferred, but not yet confirmed, that Donaghy’s bets were placed at online offshore sportsbooks.

However, thanks to Senator Frist and his infringement on gambling civil liberties and self-responsibility, the sharp sports bettor has more advantages in pointspread betting than in the recent past. “More and more of the betting wise guys and sports gambling syndicates are returning to the corner bookie” says Vegas insider Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com.

The result is both offshore sportsbooks and Las Vegas casinos will have less access to sharp versus square information, hence the advantage to beating the NFL odds and college football betting lines for football bettors.

A few years ago, Dr. Bob Stohl, who appropriately enough operates Dr. Bob Sports, was all the rage among sports gamblers. Several betting syndicates would move tens of thousands of dollars on his picks. Offshore sportsbook directors often called it the “Dr. Bob Factor.” Betting odds were moved several points based purely on Stohl’s sports handicapping picks.

This phenomenon was seen a decade or so previous on the Las Vegas Strip with Doc’s Enterprises. Once a cutting edge sports betting analyst and one of the foremost Vegas advisors, Doc’s Big 10 plays would move the Las Vegas betting line several points. Since then, a lesser known sports tout, Bill Tanner has become the top Big 10 betting expert.

It was déjà vu in recent years with Dr. Bob Stohl. Luckily for the sportsbooks, Dr. Bob proved to be not much of a sports betting expert and the bookmakers cleaned up thanks to his sub .500 sports wagers. Since then, most betting syndicates have become disciples of forensic handicapping founder Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com.

Major sportsbooks have offered Vincent incentive to release his plays to Costa Rican oddsmakers before he does his clients, but Vincent insists this is not an option. “They can purchase my plays and have equal access” but Vincent is a professional gambler himself and has refused overtures to be a double agent.

True, the oddsmakers may catch up to Vincent’s techniques the way they had with Doc’s Enterprises and Doctor Bob, but especially with betting over/unders, Vincent’s winning has rate never been seen before in the sports betting circles.

Even smaller players can get free sports handicapping information in beating the NFL pointspread as the famed “Tailgate Party” is at BettorsAdvice.com this year. It is the same information that previously was on the local and toll-free scorephones: NFL real-time injuries, live weather radar, free sports service picks, insight from professional sport handicappers and more.

Simply put, the sports bettor adjusts to the changes in the landscape. All gamblers should be furious at the anti-online sportsbook and online casino climate. Yet clearly the professional gambler can turn a huge negative into a positive with the aforesaid Vegas edge.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Everyone, this author included, has theories on the precise details of how rebel NBA ref Tim Donaghy may have affected the outcome of games in which he officiated. Theories by definition are conjecture. They need only be plausible using the known facts. Even reasonable suppositions may not prove to be 100 percent correct.

There are many rational hypotheses on the scandal and then again, there is other guesswork that can easily have holes poked through it. There are a small number of postulators who, to their credit, have been able to gravy train this scandal into purporting themselves as gambling experts. Unfortunately, to the more seasoned and authentic authorities in sports gambling, too often the notions of the squeakier wheels may get the oil even if the views rarely hold water.

At the very least the more seasoned are much less apt to scream proof in the crowded theatre of nattering nabobs. The USA Today’s Danny Sheridan correctly observes, “You can make all kind of cases with numbers. But if you have the exact games, then it’s like black and white.”

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Thanks for proving the oddsmakers are adept, damn savvy in fact. Any two bit gambler was aware of this bombshell. To embellish on a line from the Simpson’s, it seems to me a rather obvious find from a rather mediocre genius. This discovery was classic dog bites man though some gullible media saps bought it hook, line and sinker as man bites dog.

If even a higher percentage of games were going down to the pointspread wire with Donaghy, this would be evidence that he likely did not, repeat not affect the outcome. How anyone could imply the opposite is beyond me.

However, if a forensic statistician found that Donaghy had the highest percentage of games that were not even close to the pointspread, that would be a potential straw in the wind unlike the polar opposite (non) finding.

But wait, the “betting expert” has all his bases covered. He found that in games Donaghy officiated in 2007, the average number of points was 13 point higher than the average posted total.

So the “smoking gun” is too many games were too close to the pointspread, but then again, the other smoking gun is that too many over/unders were not close to the pointspread. The ghost of Joe McCarthy lives and the legacy of Mike Nifong thrive.

The so-called gambling experts seem to be missing the point, though cynics will tell you the only point is that the worst publicity is no publicity for wannabes. After all, no purported conclusive evidence means no real story and no media exposure.

Granted, we still do not know every detail, and perhaps never will regarding the Tim Donaghy scandal. However, from what we have seen so far, it appears point shaving was likely not as commonplace and may not even be part of the criminal allegations against him.

We do know for a fact that he supplied “inside information”. As a gambler who handicaps games legitimately, I can assure you that we are always, always looking for an “edge”—any and all major advantages—over the long-run. Getting “inside information” does not mean we bet the mortgage on a particular sporting event, but it can increase our long-term winning percentage.

Examples are the injury status of a key player. Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade and Pau Gasol are instances of star players whose game time status was often uncertain to the gambler. However, Donaghy would have access to unpublished injury information, the type of privy data that would give a gambler a huge upper hand.

As another example, perhaps a team was playing five contests in seven nights and their flight into town was delayed four hours, they got to town at 11:00 A.M. on game day. Knowing when situations like this occur would also provide bettors with a huge edge.

Simply “if”, any player, coach or ref were involved in point shaving, it is highly doubtful if his chicanery would result in the final scores being disproportionately close to the spread. It would be quite the opposite.

So of the two bodies of evidence thrown against the wall by the err “betting expert,” one that says too many games were close to the number and the other that says too many games were not close to the number, the latter is much more likely to stick.

My educated estimation, based on what I heard so far, is that Donaghy supplied the gamblers version of “insider trading” as illustrated above. Game day unpublished information would be the holy grail for sharp players, and it appears that is exactly what Donaghy supplied.

When the specific contests that Donaghy bet on comes out, of course an inordinate percentage will be in matches he officiated. The Johnny-come-lately experts will scream there is the damning evidence they knew was coming.

Not so fast. Of course Donaghy is going to have access to inside information on a game when he’s already on site. How can he do undercover work on a matchup that is 400 miles from his own two eyes and ears?

While even those of us who refuse to jump to rash conclusions will appropriately muse, “How could he possibly be objective in a game in which he has five dimes riding?” this is far from proof that he consciously influenced the outcome.

Don’t get me wrong, Donaghy is clearly guilty of going well over the line of any and all codes of conduct, but I am quite confident those hell bent in proving a made-for-television conspiracy will only continue to make leaps of faith that may not be backed by the evidence. A scenario in which he acquired inside information on games other those he was to officiate would be a shocking turn of events to the true “betting experts”.

Reasonable speculation is human nature. Salacious gossip backed merely by fuzzy math is irresponsible. ESPN.com proves to be the worldwide leader in tittle-tattle.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com He has written hundreds of articles on sports gaming, published on many of the top websites and in leading publications around the world and has been an expert guest on several national radio shows including Sporting News Network.

Address for site: www.masterlockline.com

E-mail: cymccormick@joeduffy.net

Website: MasterLockLine.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, August 15, 2007

“MasterLockLine Takes the SuperLockLine Several Notches into the Future”

PLAINVIEW, NY–MasterLockLine.com has its roots on a Long Island golf course when several high rollers decided to pool their money to purchase sports service selections of a dozen or so top handicapping firms. Via word of mouth, the syndicate grew to several dozen members quickly, almost all members betting several thousand dollars per game on a daily basis.

Eventually the Alliance, now MasterLockLine.com decided to go public with the plays as a business venture to subsidize their gaming combine. Why now to the general public offer the same information for $3.63 per day? “First of all, this price is an introductory price. We know clients will stay with us and while they will still get elite service selections for pennies on the dollar, it won’t be at that price when they renew” founding father Dom Vincenzio stated perhaps too matter-of-factly.

“It’s a business venture,” stated Cy McCormick. “Our original intentions have been exceeded. We are all making money on the leisurely end already. With the quality of sports services offered, we plan on turning a profit purely by reselling the plays as well.”

As members of the syndicate include major players in the computer programming field, MasterLockLine.com wrote an exclusive program that rates sports services overall and in each individual sport. Using “z-scores” a mathematical formula that weighs the statistical reliability of data, sports services are rated based mostly on long term return on investment records, but with some consideration given to “who’s hot”.

Data mining was used to determine what percentage will be assigned to weigh various factors. Included is measuring long-term versus short term record, each sport individually versus overall record, and the subcategory of higher rated plays versus “regular” rated plays, etc.

Whether it’s high profile sports services such as Doc’s Enterprises, Dr. Bob Stohl, the so called Covers Experts, Jim Feist and his family of funds, Wayne Root or the lesser known such as Bill Tanner, Kal Elner and others, the MasterLockLine.com monitors all of their top service plays, parses them and passes along only the cream of the crop to you.

In 2006, the MasterLockLine.com purchased the famed scorephone SuperLockLine, which originated in the 976-LOCK days.

MasterLockLine.com gives you the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We search our database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more times than not at a fraction of the cost.

Address for site: www.betonsports360.com

E-mail: SVincent@JoeDuffy.net

Website: Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, August 15, 2007

“Revolutionary New Sports Handicapping Site”

PLAINVIEW, NY–A revolutionary new website that experts say will change the landscape of sports betting is now live: Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com Stevie Vincent is the forefather of “forensic handicapping” based on the principal of forensic economics.

Already considered the leading authority on probability and statistics as it applies to sports gaming, Vincent took it a step further. Captivated by a research paper authored by a University of Pennsylvania professor who used forensic economics to argue a significant percentage of college basketball games were fixed, Vincent used data mining software and a web crawler unearthing consistent patterns of when teams were likely to cover or fail to cover the spread.

However, Vincent does not believe the anomalies are evidence of underworld influence, but proof that not only are there distinct patters of when a team will peak and bottom out, but forensic handicapping exploits when oddsmakers overuse recent data resulting in “overlays” or “underlays” (bad lines) by the oddsmakers. He also believes some off lines are intentional in anticipation of predictably inaccurate public perception.

Vincent’s research answers one of handicapping’s great mysteries: how to weigh long term versus short term data. “It depends, but it is now ascertainable how and when to evaluate the fluid variables” asserts Vincent.

In short, forensic handicapping evaluates data and detects the confluence of team, oddsmaker and public tendencies producing an end product being the most scientifically valid sports selections ever.

Vincent is former Executive Editor of the popular scorephone “Tailgate Parties” and has been a consultant to several top handicappers.

BetOnSports360.com takes sports betting into a new age with “forensic handicapping” using ground-breaking techniques employed successfully in other fields.