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May 22, 2020

UFC Fight Night, UFC 250 Odds Updated

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 8:24 AM

UFC Fight Night and UFC 250 odds are set. Bet at MyBookie  Joe Duffy will have outsourced picks at OffshoreInsiders.com  and hopes for baseball season returning in early July.

Saturday, 30th May 2020 ML
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24201 Gilbert Burns 155
24202 Tyron Woodley -175
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24205 Hannah Cifers 330
24206 Mackenzie Dern -410
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24209 Augusto Sakai -120
24210 Blagoy Ivanov EV
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24213 Klidson Abreu 110
24214 Jamahal Hill -130
Saturday, 6th June 2020 ML
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24101 Felicia Spencer 450
24102 Amanda Nunes -600
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24105 Raphael Assuncao 125
24106 Cody Garbrandt -145
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24109 Devin Clark 185
24110 Alonzo Menifield -225
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24113 Gerald Meerschaert 105
24114 Ian Heinisch -125
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24117 Jussier Formiga 120
24118 Alex Perez -140
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24121 Maki Pitolo 155
24122 Charles Byrd -175

 

May 9, 2020

How to Exploit Yards Per Point Stat In Mastering Football Betting

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 4:09 PM

Every season all sports are an enriching experience in sports betting. I constantly reflect and critique myself, evaluate what modifications have been implemented by the oddsmakers and how the alterations in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the register of strategy refinements many football seasons ago was the understanding that I stumbled upon a football handicapping Holy Grail about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slide through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s enterprises. I believe that was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by points scored. On defense, its yards allowed divided by points given up. The supposition is it measures efficiency on both sides of the ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not waste yardage or leave points on the field so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful defensive stands. However, conventional thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one would be better off fading the stat. That is, one should bet on the least efficient team. Here is that magic phrase yet again: regression to the mean.

In fact, based on net yards per play (offensive yards per play-offense yards per play allowed) favorites with a net edge of at least two yards per play are a go-against of 248-208-7. We have a subsystem in our database that is even better.

That being said, such teams that are underdogs despite an efficiency edge 43-32-1. Perhaps this 57.3 angle, albeit with a low sample size, suggests a team is what the stats say they are. That is, when the statistically better team is getting points, take the dog.

I’ve typed countless articles and recorded sports betting podcasts on how we measure the accuracy and validity of a team’s performance. In summation, I exploit net yardage record (a team that gets more yards wins) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others rank teams by total yards per game in passing, rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to the cumulative average of their opponents to date. Foxsheets is quite good for that.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com, but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated they are capable of more than their bottom-line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats. The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal of fortune–literally.

Many years ago, I beta tested (tracked but did not bet) the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially, it proved to be a great a great way to buy low and sell high and apply it to handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The sharpest bettor thanks to facts-based proven systems and theories is Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

 

 

May 6, 2020

Super Bowl 2021 Odds: Chiefs vs. Saints Most Likely Combatants

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 3:26 PM

According to the oddsmakers, we’re going to see the Chiefs and Saints square off in Super Bowl LV.

SportsBetting created odds for the exact Super Bowl matchup (hopefully) next February. A Chiefs-Saints Super Bowl has 25/1 odds while the 49ers-Chiefs rematch and a Bucs-Chiefs marquee match are both listed at 28/1.

Meanwhile, tied for the worst odds to meet in Super Bowl LV are teams with the top two picks in the draft, Cincinnati and Washington.

Top 10 Super Bowl Matchup Odds

Saints vs. Chiefs +2500

49ers vs. Chiefs +2800

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs +2800

Saints vs. Ravens +3000

49ers vs. Ravens +3000

Buccaneers vs. Ravens +3000

Cowboys vs. Chiefs +3300

Cowboys vs. Ravens +4000

Eagles vs. Chiefs +4000

Seahawks vs. Chiefs +4000

Bottom 10 Super Bowl Matchup Odds

Panthers vs. Dolphins +200000

Panthers vs. Jets +200000

Lions vs. Bengals +200000

Lions vs. Jaguars +200000

Giants vs. Bengals +200000

Giants vs. Jaguars +200000

Redskins vs. Jets +200000

Panthers vs. Bengals +300000

Panthers vs. Jaguars +300000

Redskins vs. Jaguars +500000

Redskins vs. Bengals +500000

There isn’t enough room in this email to list all of the 250+ matchups and odds, but you can find your team here:

Additionally, the sportsbook rolled out odds for the 2020 Comeback Player of the Year. Big Ben sits atop the board while JJ Watt, A.J. Green, Nick Foles, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford round out the top 5 best odds. Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Ben Roethlisberger +250

JJ Watt +500

AJ Green +600

Nick Foles +600

Cam Newton +800

Matthew Stafford +800

Myles Garrett +1200

Antonio Brown +2000

Andy Dalton +3300

CJ Mosley +3300

DeSean Jackson +3300

Joe Flacco +3300

Derwin James +4000

Jordan Reed +5000

Akiem Hicks +6600

Alex Smith +6600

Alshon Jeffrey +6600

Bradley Chubb +6600

Keanu Neal +6600

Kwon Alexander +6600

Malcolm Butler +6600

Stephen Gostowksi +6600

Lamar Miller +8000

Trent Williams +8000

TY Hilton +8000

Xavien Howard +8000

Eli Manning +10000

Josh Rosen +10000

Visit OffshoreInsiders.com for the best gambling picks in the world.

 

UFC 249 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 9:44 AM

American sports fans will finally get some live shots Saturday night as UFC 249 is set to go down in Florida.

Gamblers are eager for the action as well, and outside of the main fight odds, SportsBetting has rolled out a Super Bowl-size set of prop bets for the event.

Will Bruce Buffer wear a mask, which fighter will bleed first, the quickest fight and who the victors will call out afterward are just some of the props available to bet on.

You can see a select set of the props below and the full list here:

First to bleed

Justin Gaethje -120

Tony Ferguson -120

First to bleed

Anthony Pettis +140

Donald Cerrone -180

Will Gaethje/Ferguson winner say “Khabib” in post-fight octagon interview?

Yes -200

No +150

Will Gaethje/Ferguson winner say “corona” or “COVID” in post-fight octagon interview?

Yes +200

No -300

Will Pettis/Cerrone winner say “Conor” or “McGregor” in post-fight octagon interview?

Yes +160

No -220

Will Bruce Buffer wear a mask in the octagon during main card?

Yes +500

No -1000

Will any ref wear a mask in the octagon during main card?

Yes +200

No -300

Quickest fight to finish

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Francis Ngannou +110

Justin Gaethje vs Tony Ferguson +150

Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum +170

Yorgan De Castro vs Greg Hardy +185

Sam Alvey vs Ryan Spann +225

Niko Price vs Vicente Luque +450

Uriah Hall vs Ronaldo Souza +900

Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis +1000

Charles Rosa vs Bryce Mitchell +1500

Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo +2000

Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar +2000

Michelle Waterson vs Carla Esparza +3000

Total event decisions by points

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Total event knockouts and TKOs

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Total event submissions

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Props for every main card fight:

Will fight end in a draw, end in Round 1, go the distance

Will fight be won by decision, submission, TKO/KO

This is brought to you by DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions from MyThirtyOne Gifts. Please like, subscribe, and comment on the official dad jokes YouTube channel. Also, follow Abby D’s official Twitter account for episode updates, and future fun!

 

 

May 4, 2020

Korean Baseball Odds Set: KBO Opening Day and League Championship

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — PiotrAbelo @ 1:46 PM

American baseball fans won’t see their beloved MLB in action for at least another month, but those looking for any hardball semblance will start seeing live action this week.

ESPN has announced a deal to broadcast six KBO League games each week as the South Korean’s baseball season gets underway tomorrow. And of course, where there is live sports there will be odds to bet on.

According to the latest odds from SportsBetting, the Doosan Bears are favored to win the KBO League. The Kiwoon Heroes and SK Wyverns are second and third on the odds board, respectively.

2020 KBO League Odds

Doosan Bears +350

Kiwoom Heroes +450

SK Wyverns +450

NC Dinos +600

KIA Tigers +750

LG Twins +750

Samsung Lions +1000

Lotte Giants +2000

Hanwha Eagles +2000

KT Wiz +2200

KBO teams are limited to three foreign-born players on their rosters, but there are plenty of former MLB players in the league including Dan Straily, Adrian Sampson, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Preston Tucker and Aaron Altherr.

Here are the odds for Opening Day:

 

(ESPN)

NC Dinos -130

Samsung Lions +110

Over/Under 8

Kiwoom Heroes -125

KIA Tigers +105

Over/Under 7.5

Lotte Giants +115

KT Wiz Suwon -135

Over/Under 9

Doosan Bears -145

LG Twins +125

Over/Under 8.5

 

Hanwha Eagles +120

SK Wyverns -140

Over/Under 8.5

 

This is brought to you by DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions.

April 30, 2020

Filed under: Uncategorized — PiotrAbelo @ 12:34 PM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hqyWPvNNVz

https://www.youtube.com/embed/hqyWPvNNVz

April 29, 2020

AP NFL Coach of the Year Odds 2020-21

Filed under: Uncategorized — PiotrAbelo @ 7:23 PM

Odds are set for the Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year for the 2020-21 season. Do the Player of the Year odds reveal a decent dark horse? Odds are from Bovada  

The favorite, Belichick is of course intriguing. If the Patriots make the playoffs in the post-Brady era, he would be tough to beat. There are plenty of rumors of Deshaun Watson landing in New England, which would lessen the shock of the Pats making the postseason. But if Belichick accomplished this with unproven Jarrett Stidham, he’d be a virtual lock for Coach of the Year. 

I’ve preached for years how use oddsmakers’ knowledge against them. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is +1000 to win the MVP, putting him as the No. 4 favorite. Should Murray make a serious run at MVP, his coach Kliff Kingsbury would get serious consideration for COY and at 18-1 is very tempting. At the same odds, Kevin Stefanski is in very good position. He is taking over last year’s bust Cleveland, a team that has nowhere to go but up. 

If Baker Mayfield rises to the level of elite QB—and he showed great flashes two years ago—newcomer Stefanski becomes the favorite. 

All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1. 

AP NFL Coach of the Year 2020-21 

  • Bill Belichick+650 
  • Kyle Shanahan+1600 
  • Mike Vrabel+2000 
  • Andy Reid+2000 
  • Bruce Arians+1200 
  • Frank Reich+2000 
  • ·       Kevin Stefanski+1800 
  • Kliff Kingsbury+1800 
  • Mike McCarthy+2000 
  • Sean McDermott+1800 
  • John Harbaugh+2200 
  • Sean Payton+2400 
  • Brian Flores+1600 
  • Mike Tomlin+2800 
  • Sean McVay+3000 
  • Vic Fangio+2500 
  • Zac Taylor+2800 
  • Anthony Lynn+3000 
  • Doug Pederson+2500 
  • Pete Carroll+2800 
  • Ron Rivera+3000 
  • Dan Quinn+3000 
  • Matt LaFleur+3300 
  • Mike Zimmer+2500 
  • Matt Rhule+4500 
  • Joe Judge+3500 
  • Jon Gruden+4000 
  • Matt Nagy+4000 
  • Adam Gase+5500 
  • Bill O’Brien+5500 
  • Doug Marrone+5500 
  • Matt Patricia+5000 

OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy, has been winning since scorephone days. Surely you follow us on Twitter

April 27, 2020

Sports Handicapping Strategy: Never Bet With Your Broken Heart

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Joe Duffy @ 3:21 PM

In my handicapping infancy in the late 80s, the Dutchman (recall that bloke scorephone junkies?) was doling out copies of some advice column along the lines of Golden Rules of Handicapping. I can’t even recollect most of the provisions, but do recall they ranged from the obvious like, “Bet with your head, not your heart,” to the total bullshit, “Only wager on an underdog to cover if you think they will win outright.”

All the other theorems were fairly unmemorable. I can’t “credit” the author, because I’m not sure who it was. Yes, stuff did go viral back then. However, previous to high tech overtaking the world, going viral meant a 15thgeneration photocopied note changing hands. 

Lost in the prudent, yet blatantly evident “not betting with your heart” is a more significant reality: don’t gamble with your broken heart. I’m distressed at how often I hear something along the lines of, “I refuse to bet on any game involving the Detroit Lions. Each time I bet on them whether for or against, I get it wrong.” 

Even though I haven’t done an academic inquisition, the ensuing soliloquy generally reveals a very small sample size. Further conversations uncovers a customary paradigm is that the weeper bets on foregoing team to repeat the performance of the last time they wagered for or against them. That is, if the team they bet on got annihilated, they will bet against that team, anticipating to again put up a fiasco effort. 

“They lost outright as a 10-point favorite. Next time, I bet against them as an underdog and they won by 20 points,” is a familiar sounding shrieking of annoyance. The fact that sharps bet on capricious teams to be unpredictable notwithstanding, it’s a knee-jerk reflex to eliminate possibilities of betting for or against a certain squad based on short-term heartache. 

It’s as preposterous as swearing off unders because a few tormenting setbacks. Most of us have been there, but only squares abandon the ship. 

Perchance there is a discernable cause and effect why someone has a bad read on a team, objectively assess and determine why. Make alterations accordingly. But if you are invoking your next bet based on how a certain team executed the last time you place a bet on them—the only bad read you have is on how prosperous handicapping functions. 

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He’s been dominating handicapping publicly since the 1980s scorephone days. With all the time off during coronavirus, he both added to his systems arsenal and started the dad jokes YouTube channel Hey Abby D with his daughter. The first video is below. 

Post Draft NFL Rookie Of Year Odds Among Many Prop Bets

The draft is in the books so now it’s time to project what these highly-touted rookies will accomplish during their inaugural NFL seasons.  

SportsBetting has put up a ton of odds surrounding the 2020 rookie class, and this page will have current numbers throughout the offseason: 

It’s no surprise that Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa lead the Offensive ROY list, which you can find below (as well as DROY candidates). Justin Herbert has 12/1 odds, but he and Tagovailoa are decent underdogs just to be their team’s starters in Week 1. 

And what might be considered an ominous sign for the ever-questionable health of Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts has 50-50 odds to start one game for the Eagles this season.

Additionally, there are over/under season statistical prop bets for these players:

Chase Young o/u 8.5 sacks

Clyde Edwards-Helaire o/u 950 rushing yards

D’Andre Swift o/u 625 rushing yards

Jeff Okudah o/u 3 interceptions

Jonathan Taylor o/u 550 rushing yards

Justin Jefferson o/u 750 receiving yards

CeeDee Lamb o/u 850 receiving yards

Henry Ruggs III o/u 800 receiving yards

Jalen Reagor o/u 700 receiving yards

Jerry Jeudy o/u 900 receiving yards

Joe Burrow o/u 16.5 interceptions, 22.5 passing TDs, 3800 passing yards

Justin Herbert o/u 17.5 interceptions, 21 passing TDs, 3400 passing yards

Tua Tagovailoa o/u 15.5 interceptions, 19 passing TDs, 3200 passing yards

Jalen Hurts starts game at QB: Yes -120, No -120

Finally, there are already odds for next year’s No. 1 pick:

No. 1 Selection in 2021 NFL Draft

Trevor Lawrence -400

Justin Fields +500

Penei Sewell +1200

Gregory Rousseau +1800

Ja’Marr Chase +2000

Dolphins starting quarterback in Week 1

Ryan Fitzpatrick -270

Tua Tagovailoa +200

Josh Rosen +2500

Chargers starting quarterback in Week 1

Tyrod Taylor -370

Justin Herbert +260

Easton Stick +3200

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Joe Burrow +250

Tua Tagovailoa +800

Clyde Edwards-Helaire +900

Jonathan Taylor +900

Jerry Jeudy +1000

D’Andre Swift +1200

Justin Herbert +1200

Ceedee Lamb +1400

J.K. Dobbins +1600

Henry Ruggs III +1800

Cam Akers +2000

Zack Moss +2000

Denzel Mims +2200

Tee Higgins +2200

Jalen Reagor +2800

Justin Jefferson +2800

K.J Hamler +2800

Laviska Shenault Jr. +2800

Brandon Aiyuk +3300

Jordan Love +3300

Joshua Kelly +3300

Lamical Perine +3300

Chase Claypool +4000

K.J Hill +4000

Michael Pittman Jr. +4000

Tyler Johnson +4000

A.J. Dillon +5000

Jacob Eason +5000

Jalen Hurts +5000

Jauan Jennings +5000

Jake Fromm +6600

Anthony Gordon +8000

Antonio Gandy-Golden +8000

Donovan Peoples-Jones +8000

Gabriel Davis +8000

Ke’Shawn Vaughn +8000

Adam Trautman +10000

Antonio Gibson +10000

Brycen Hopkins +10000

Cole Kmet +10000

Harrison Bryant +10000

Hunter Bryant +10000

John Hightower +10000

Mekhi Becton +10000

Van Jefferson +10000

Defense Rookie of the Year

Chase Young +500

Isaiah Simmons +800

Kenneth Murray +1400

Patrick Queen +1400

A.J. Epenesa +2000

Jeff Okudah +2000

Xavier McKinney +2200

Akeem Davis-Gaither +2500

Ashtyn Davis +2500

CJ Henderson +2500

Curtis Weaver +2500

Derrick Brown +2500

Grant Delpit +2500

Javon Kinlaw +2500

Jordan Elliot +2500

Julian Okwara +2500

Kristian Fulton +2500

Trevon Diggs +2500

Troy Dye +2500

Willie Gay Jr. +2500

Jaylon Johnson +2800

K’Lavon Chaisson +2800

Marlon Davidson +2800

Zack Baun +2800

A.J. Terrell +3300

Darrell Taylor +3300

Geno Stone +3300

Jeff Gladney +3300

Josh Uche +3300

Kyle Dugger +3300

Malik Harrison +3300

Terrell Lewis +3300

Yetur Gross-Matos +3300

Davion Taylor +4000

Logan Wilson +4000

Anfernee Jennings +5000

Antoine Winfield Jr. +5000

Bradlee Anae +5000

Bryce Hall +5000

Cam Brown +5000

Kenny Willekes +5000

Nevilled Gallimore +5000

Ross Blacklock +5000

Terrell Burgess +5000

Cameron Dantzier +6600

Justin Madubuike +6600

K’Von Wallace +6600

Trevis Gipson +8000

Davon Hamilton +10000

Jalen Elliott +10000

Julian Blackmon +10000

Markus Bailey +10000

Raekwon Davis +10000

Troy Pride Jr. +10000

Alohi Gilman +15000

David Woodward +15000

During the Covid disaster, OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy and his wonderful daughter started a dad jokes YouTube channel. It is must-watch “TV” YouTube style.   

April 26, 2020

Bovada Announces Poker Play Guarantee

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 7:54 PM

Bovada and Bovada poker continue to be industry leaders. Here is the latest from them:

Players are our priority. Period.

Since launching Bovada, we have always been dedicated to enhancing your gambling experience – now, we guarantee it.

Premium Processing

100% guaranteed withdrawals to put your money back in your pocket faster.

  • We will never miss your payout
  • We will always lead the industry in withdrawal processing times
  • We will get your money to you within 24 hours for Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrency) and any player transfer vouchers

Guaranteed Gameplay

We have a zero-tolerance approach towards interruptions to your play.

  • No matter the season or the circumstances – you will always have a variety of exciting wagers to choose from in the sportsbook
  • No pre-match wager cancellations due to incorrectly posted lines or information
  • We will always follow our onsite Poker Tournament Cancellation Policy

Self-service Solutions

We want any questions you may have answered – even faster.

  • We will continue to expand our onsite Help Centre based on your feedback
  • You have access to a fully-moderated and player-led Bovada Community
  • When required, we will use a 3rd party resolution to ensure every player feels fairly treated
  • Every bonus will be issued to you according to the Bonus Terms and Conditions onsite
  • If you do prefer an agent, we’ll answer all of your chat requests within minutes and reply to your emails within 48 hours

‘No Excuse’ Notifications

We guarantee honest and timely communication without any excuses.

  • If an unexpected site outage occurs, we will let our players know the details within 60 minutes
  • If we determine that any player deserves extra consideration as result of unexpected downtime, we will resolve it within 2 days
  • You will be given notice a minimum of 24 hours before any planned maintenance
  • We will let you know 7 days in advance of any changes to existing programs, products or bonuses

Our commitment to every Bovada player is to continue working hard at improving every day, giving you the best online gambling experience possible.

Thank you for playing with us.

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