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March 30, 2020

2021 NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes, Wilson, Jackson Lead Way; What About Brady?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 7:05 PM

Bovada poker winds down its $6 million Black Diamond Poker open. But their award-winning sportsbook has updated odds on the 2020-21 NFL MVP. Last year’s Super Bowl hero Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +350, while last year’s winner Lamar Jackson is +660. Mr. Consistency, Russell Wilson is next at +750. 

Last season, the consensus breakout QB was Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns. How did that work out? This season, oddmakers have Kyler Murray with that…honor. At 10-1 or +1000, clearly Bovada’s assurance is prognostic, not anything that has occured consistently on the field. Speaking of Mayfield, is he undervalued this season at +3300? 

Murray is tied with perhaps the most intriguing odds of them all. Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady—did I just say Tampa QB Tom Brady—is also 10-1. Complete odds. 

NFL MVP 2020-21

MVP Winner 

  • Patrick Mahomes+350 
  • Lamar Jackson+600 
  • Russell Wilson+750 
  • Kyler Murray+1000 
  • Tom Brady+1000 
  • Drew Brees+1800 
  • Dak Prescott+1800 
  • Deshaun Watson+1800 
  • Aaron Rodgers+1800 
  • Carson Wentz+2000 
  • Matt Ryan+3300 
  • Christian McCaffrey+3300 
  • Josh Allen (QB)+3300 
  • Baker Mayfield+3300 
  • Philip Rivers +5000 
  • Derrick Henry+5000 
  • Cam Newton+4500 
  • Ben Roethlisberger+4500 
  • Jameis Winston+5000 
  • Ezekiel Elliott+5000 
  • Saquon Barkley+5000 
  • Jimmy Garoppolo+5500 
  • Dalvin Cook+6000 
  • Matthew Stafford+6000 
  • Kirk Cousins+6600 
  • Jared Goff+6600 
  • Drew Lock+7500 
  • Daniel Jones+8000 
  • Ryan Tannehill+8000 
  • Joe Burrow+10000 
  • Aaron Donald+10000 
  • Nick Bosa+10000 
  • Khalil Mack+10000 
  • J.J. Watt+10000 

March 29, 2020

Jon Jones and UFC 249 location odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 9:55 AM
‌‌Bones Jones has been caught by the long arm of the law once again, and the oddsmakers are weighing in on how the champ’s latest misstep will impact his UFC future. 
 
Additionally, the folks at SportsBetting.ag have come up with a list of odds for the UFC 249 location, and there are some hilarious options available to wager on. 
 
UFC 249 Location
Florida +225
Russia +300
United Arab Emirates +300
Mexico +500
Saudi Arabia +800
South Africa +1000
Nevada +1400
International Waters +2500
Area 51 +8000
North Korea +10000
 
Will Jon Jones be stripped of title belt before the end of 2020?
Yes -550
No +325
 
Will Jon Jones be arrested again before the end of 2020?
Yes -150
No +110
 
Will Jon Jones spend night in jail before the end of 2020?
Yes -140
No +100
 
Will Jon Jones fight in UFC again before the end of 2020?
Yes +300
No -500
 
Best sports picks on OffshoreInsiders.com  

Odds Released for CFP, Conference Champs 2020-21

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 9:36 AM

We all hope that the college football season won’t be played without fans, but even if it is, there will still be odds for each and every outcome on the field. 

On Friday, SportsBetting posted odds for which teams will qualify for the 2020 College Football Playoff, as well as odds for each of the 10 conferences. 

Teams to Qualify for CFP

Clemson -200

Ohio State -150

Alabama -125

Oklahoma +125

Georgia +150

LSU +200

Notre Dame +275

Florida +350

Texas +400

Texas A&M +400

Auburn +500

Oregon +500

Penn State +600

Michigan +650

Washington +1000

Wisconsin +1000

Florida State +1400

Oklahoma State +1400

Tennessee +1400

Utah +1400

Miami FL +1600

Minnesota +1600

Iowa State +2000

Nebraska +2000

Iowa +2500

California +5000

AAC

Central Florida +125

Memphis +225

Cincinnati +300

Navy +1400

SMU +1400

Houston +1600

Temple +2500

Tulane +2800

South Florida +5000

Tulsa +8000

East Carolina +10000

ACC

Clemson -600

Miami +750

North Carolina +1000

Virginia Tech +1200

Florida State +1600

Virginia +2000

Louisville +2800

Pittsburgh +2800

Wake Forest +4000

NC State +5000

Duke +6600

Syracuse +6600

Boston College +8000

Georgia Tech +25000

Big Ten

Ohio State -225

Michigan +350

Wisconsin +900

Penn State +1000

Iowa +1600

Nebraska +1600

Minnesota +2500

Michigan State +3300

Indiana +4000

Illinois +5000

Maryland +5000

Northwestern +5000

Purdue +5000

Big 12

Oklahoma -125

Texas +150

Oklahoma State +600

Iowa State +1200

Baylor +1600

West Virginia +1600

Kansas State +2500

TCU +2800

Texas Tech +4000

Kansas +10000

C-USA

Western Kentucky +200

Florida Atlantic +300

UAB +400

Louisiana Tech +550

Marshall +550

Southern Miss +600

Middle Tennessee +2500

Charlotte +2800

Florida International +2800

North Texas +4000

Rice +6600

Old Dominion +10000

UTSA +10000

UTEP +15000

MAC

Ohio +325

Buffalo +400

Central Michigan +400

Ball State +600

Miami (OH) +800

Toledo +800

Western Michigan +800

Kent State +1200

Eastern Michigan +1600

Northern Illinois +2000

Akron +10000

Bowling Green +10000

Mountain West

Boise State -200

San Diego State +325

Air Force +450

Utah State +1200

Colorado State +1400

Wyoming +2500

Fresno State +2800

Hawaii +2800

Nevada +5000

San Jose State +5000

UNLV +6600

New Mexico +15000

Pac-12

Oregon +225

USC +275

Washington +300

UCLA +400

Utah +450

Arizona State +1400

California +2000

Arizona +2500

Stanford +3300

Colorado +8000

Oregon State +8000

SEC

Alabama -120

LSU +275

Georgia +400

Florida +600

Auburn +1400

Texas A&M +1600

Kentucky +10000

Mississippi State +10000

Missouri +10000

Ole Miss +10000

South Carolina +10000

Tennessee +10000

Arkansas +25000

Vanderbilt +25000

Sun Belt

App State -200

Louisiana Lafayette +225

Arkansas State +1400

Troy +1400

Georgia Southern +1600

Georgia State +2200

Coastal Carolina +2500

UL-Monroe +4000

South Alabama +5000

Texas State +6600

Whenever football season begins, Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com will be there with winning picks led by winning sports systems

March 28, 2020

Beware of Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing When Buying Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 5:22 PM

Interested to know another yet one of the innumerable keys to me to having been a full-time handicapper for more than three decades? I don’t only scout sports teams, I also observe and absorb other handicappers. I’ve done Evelyn Wood readings, sometimes leading to careful analysis on most sports betting articles, podcasts, and videos that have ever emerged on the internet. 

It’s a big echo chamber out there and in countless instances, they are all regurgitating the same sports handicapping urban legends I’ve disproved. Still, searching for a treasure almost always means a lot of research time is invested before stumbling on a gem. 

A justifiable cynic based on peer review of countless theorems, my attention was captivated by an article posted on a Reddit betting group of all places. The essay’s affirmations were very consistent with what I’ve sermonized for years—that a majority of winning gambling systems are counterintuitive. And it was pretty well-written and articulated. 

Optimistic the author was sharing some jewels; I proceeded to one of my computer programs. Trust but verify and if these angles are true, store them for future use.

Oh snap, every last one of them was rubbish. Need proof? 

Lie #1: When an NBA team wins by 15 or more points, you might think that they’ve got momentum and will win their next game by double-digits as well. When you see a home favorite of ten points or more who are fresh off of 15-point win they only beat the spread just 42.5% of the time. The truth is, they cover 48 percent of the time. Perhaps he meant recently. Nope, in fact in recent years, they’ve covered at a higher rate, especially in 2018. 

Playing the ultimate devil’s advocate, in the preface he alleged, “or more.” In the quoted system he left that out. True, at exactly 15, it’s closer to being accurate but what’s the objective of exactly 15 points? That’s clear cherry picking with no sensible rationale. 

Lie #2: Look for any team that shot below their season average from the field and 3pt range and look over the total in their next game. Fake news yet again. This not-so-uncommon occurrence goes over 50.3 percent.

The fabrication was plausible because NBA teams do tend to bounce back. I attempted numerous combinations of if a team shot well below their season ratio in both categories and the best fusion to see the light of day was a 32-18 angle

No need to waste our time refuting every prevarication. Not one, not even by potluck, comes close to holding up. The article got 221 upvotes, until I gave it its first downvote. Facts matter. A lot of people got hoodwinked by the fraudster. Shock, he encouraged people to message him for more info. 

Oh gosh, then he quotes a ridiculous chase system. No professional sports bettors squander time and money with this crap

The wolves in sheep’s clothing can be the lowest of the low. Neither honest and good nor dishonest and bad are synonymous. 

Once upon a time, a notorious boiler room tout had a genuine handicapper, a guy who still sells picks on a high-volume network site, make picks for him. Unfortunately, his Long Island snake oil phone room peddlers found that high-profile national TV coin flips were easier to swindle a fool from his money, than a legitimate pick from MAC. 

The valid capper “Cap” as we will refer to him, was re-assigned. For a short period of time, the charlatan tout was selling well-researched picks. On the other hand, there are genuine cappers, who will never lie about their records nor claim they have inside info, yet their picks aren’t worth squat. 

Yes, the countless articles around the net regurgitating the warnings to stay away from the hard-sell touts are correct. Be just as worried about sweet talking swindler such as the ass clown on Reddit.

Joe Duffy actually has been a full-time pro handicapper and gambler since 1988 and part-time two years before that. Currently CEO of OffshoreInsiders.comhis articles, sports betting podcasts, and videos are the industry standard.

March 27, 2020

Despite Uncertain Date, Masters Odds 2020 Are Up

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 8:32 AM

When will the Masters golf tournament 2020 be played? Nobody knows, but odds gamblers can bet now are posted at 5 Dimes, home of the high rollers. There is no clear-cut favorite with Rory McIlroy a not-so-prohibitive +650 or 13-2. All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1. 

  • Rory McIlroy +650
  • Jon Rahm +1100
  • Justin Thomas +1200
  • Tiger Woods +1200
  • Brooks Koepka +1400
  • Dustin Johnson +1600
  • Bryson DeChambeau +2000
  • Patrick Reed +2200
  • Adam Scott +2500
  • Patrick Cantlay +2500
  • Xander Schauffele +2500
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2800
  • Jordan Spieth +2800
  • Justin Rose +2800
  • Rickie Fowler +2800
  • Tommy Fleetwood +2800
  • Tony Finau +3000
  • Bubba Watson +3300
  • Sungjae Im +3300
  • Jason Day +4000
  • Phil Mickelson +4000
  • Webb Simpson +4000
  • Louis Oosthuizen +5000
  • Marc Leishman +5000
  • Matt Kuchar +5000
  • Paul Casey +5000
  • Collin Morikawa +5500
  • Gary Woodland +5500
  • Henrik Stenson +6000
  • Tyrrell Hatton +6000
  • Sergio Garcia +6600
  • Shane Lowry +6600
  • Brandt Snedeker +8000
  • Cameron Smith +8000
  • Francesco Molinari +8000
  • Lee Westwood +8000
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +8000
  • Viktor Hovland +8000
  • Branden Grace +10000
  • Cameron Champ +10000
  • Charl Schwartzel +10000
  • Danny Willett +10000
  • Ian Poulter +10000
  • Kevin Kisner +10000
  • Scottie Scheffler +10000
  • Thomas Pieters +10000
  • Abraham Ancer +12500
  • Bernd Wiesberger +12500
  • Graeme McDowell +12500
  • Joaquin Niemann +12500
  • Matthew Wolff +12500
  • Alex Noren +14000
  • Billy Horschel +15000
  • Brendon Todd +15000
  • Byeong Hun An +15000
  • Corey Conners +15000
  • Erik Van Rooyen +15000
  • Hao Tong Li +15000
  • Jim Furyk +15000
  • Matt Wallace +15000
  • Max Homa +15000
  • Rafa Cabrera-Bello +15000
  • Robert MacIntyre +15000
  • Thorbjorn Olesen +15000
  • Zach Johnson +15000
  • Charles Howell III +17500
  • Charley Hoffman +17500
  • Eddie Pepperell +17500
  • J.B. Holmes +17500
  • Jazz Janewattananond +17500
  • Keegan Bradley +17500
  • Victor Perez +17500
  • Adam Hadwin +17500
  • Aaron Wise +20000
  • Emiliano Grillo +20000
  • Jimmy Walker +20000
  • Kevin Na +20000
  • Kyle Stanley +20000
  • Lanto Griffin +22500
  • Martin Kaymer +22500
  • C.T. Pan +25000
  • Jason Kokrak +25000
  • Justin Harding +25000
  • Kiradech Aphibarnrat +25000
  • Si Woo Kim +25000
  • Paul Waring +27500
  • Lucas Bjerregaard +30000
  • Fred Couples +50000

March 26, 2020

Pro Gamblers Think the Opposite of Square Gamblers; Jaw-Dropping Examples

Most successful systems fit under umbrella of “counterintuitive.” Here are show notes from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s latest sports betting tutorial. Trapped inside while under quarantine? Check out what this vetted sportsbook has going. Hint: a lot of money to be won!

  • If hotter and better teams were the teams that covered most, no bookies would be around
  • Always regression to mean
  • Best teams would generally have to play better to cover
  • Worst teams would generally have to play even worse

Know exceptions

  • NBA totals, especially recent years with rules having scores skyrocketing
    • Most top over systems with high totals
    • Most to under systems with low totals
  • Reasonable explanation as inflated scores have bettors
    • Terrified of low totals under
    • Even over players get sticker shock at 240

Conclusion

  • In sports handicapping “trusting instincts is bad”
    • Oddsmakers know what common beliefs are
  • Toughest bets to root for are generally better bets
    • Colder, inferior teams

Joe Duffy is a predictive sports modeling pioneer and still the best. His bets are at OffshoreInsiders.com   

Top NBA Pick? Oddsmakers Say Anthony Edwards

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 9:24 AM

With multiple college basketball players declaring for the NBA Draft today, odds are out for each of the top five picks.

According to odds from SportsBetting, Georgia guard Anthony Edwards will be selected No. 1 overall this summer. 

Deni Avdija, an Israeli professional basketball player, is favored to get picked in the No. 2 spot and LaMelo Ball third. Player of the Year, Obi Toppin, and James Wiseman round out the top 5.

1st Overall Pick

Anthony Edwards -150

James Wiseman +175

LaMelo Ball +400

Cole Anthony +600

Deni Avdija +600

2nd Overall Pick

Deni Avdija +125

LaMelo Ball +150

Anthony Edwards +300

James Wiseman +500

Obi Toppin +600  

3rd Overall Pick

LaMelo Ball +150

Deni Avdija +300

James Wiseman +300

Obi Toppin +500

Anthony Edwards +600

Cole Anthony +600

4th Overall Pick

Obi Toppin +200

James Wiseman +250

Deni Avdija +400

LaMelo Ball +400

Cole Anthony +600

Anthony Edwards +800

Onyeka Okongwu +800

5th Overall Pick

James Wiseman +200

Obi Toppin +250

Cole Anthony +400

Deni Avdija +600

Onyeka Okongwu +600

LaMelo Ball +800

RJ Hampton +800

Anthony Edwards +1000

The horrible coronavirus has given Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.comsome time to update podcasts and videos with sports betting secrets with tips on sports gambling strategy.  

March 25, 2020

BetOnline Offers Stunning Poker, Blackjack Bonuses and More

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 6:23 PM
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$750K Tournament Series  We have committed to over $750,000 in total prize money where players will have access to daily events that run all the way through our $150K Main Event. Adding to the excitement, most of our buildup tournaments will run as Knockout Events where you will get cold, hard cash in your pockets every time you bounce another player from contention. 
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March 24, 2020

Sports Gambling Podcast: Exploiting Splits

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 9:00 PM

Show notes on Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com superb podcast on betting splits. 

Listen to the full podcast here

What are splits?

  • How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy 
  • Most common usage is home/away stats

Sharp versus square usage 

  • Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team
    • False, such stats rarely hold up
  • Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage 
    • Road favorite is almost always sharp bet
    • “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is

Why do anti-splits do so well?

  • Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde
  • Splits regress to the mean
  • SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up
  • Use oddsmakers knowledge against them
    • Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message”

Conclusion

  • Don’t outsmart yourself
  • Think outside the box
    • Zig while square zag
  • If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell

March 23, 2020

Why Are Computer Programs the Ultimate Betting Sports Weapon?

Show notes from the top sports betting podcast on earth. Joe’s Duffy’s podcast traces roots back to 1980 on the scorephones.  

Eliminates Biases

Most love favorites, some dogs; over/under

Road favorites sucker plays in NFL, yet very good NBA

Underdogs, especially big ones, generally good bet; but not college football

Facts first

Situations where I’ve gone with big favorites in MLB, which I hate

Takes advantage of biases!

Thousands of Man Hours; Never Miss

Computer software stores the system and tells you when it applies

Old days with unranked favorites to ranked teams

So many of the best opportunities are small college football totals

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