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March 28, 2020

Beware of Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing When Buying Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 5:22 PM

Interested to know another yet one of the innumerable keys to me to having been a full-time handicapper for more than three decades? I don’t only scout sports teams, I also observe and absorb other handicappers. I’ve done Evelyn Wood readings, sometimes leading to careful analysis on most sports betting articles, podcasts, and videos that have ever emerged on the internet. 

It’s a big echo chamber out there and in countless instances, they are all regurgitating the same sports handicapping urban legends I’ve disproved. Still, searching for a treasure almost always means a lot of research time is invested before stumbling on a gem. 

A justifiable cynic based on peer review of countless theorems, my attention was captivated by an article posted on a Reddit betting group of all places. The essay’s affirmations were very consistent with what I’ve sermonized for years—that a majority of winning gambling systems are counterintuitive. And it was pretty well-written and articulated. 

Optimistic the author was sharing some jewels; I proceeded to one of my computer programs. Trust but verify and if these angles are true, store them for future use.

Oh snap, every last one of them was rubbish. Need proof? 

Lie #1: When an NBA team wins by 15 or more points, you might think that they’ve got momentum and will win their next game by double-digits as well. When you see a home favorite of ten points or more who are fresh off of 15-point win they only beat the spread just 42.5% of the time. The truth is, they cover 48 percent of the time. Perhaps he meant recently. Nope, in fact in recent years, they’ve covered at a higher rate, especially in 2018. 

Playing the ultimate devil’s advocate, in the preface he alleged, “or more.” In the quoted system he left that out. True, at exactly 15, it’s closer to being accurate but what’s the objective of exactly 15 points? That’s clear cherry picking with no sensible rationale. 

Lie #2: Look for any team that shot below their season average from the field and 3pt range and look over the total in their next game. Fake news yet again. This not-so-uncommon occurrence goes over 50.3 percent.

The fabrication was plausible because NBA teams do tend to bounce back. I attempted numerous combinations of if a team shot well below their season ratio in both categories and the best fusion to see the light of day was a 32-18 angle

No need to waste our time refuting every prevarication. Not one, not even by potluck, comes close to holding up. The article got 221 upvotes, until I gave it its first downvote. Facts matter. A lot of people got hoodwinked by the fraudster. Shock, he encouraged people to message him for more info. 

Oh gosh, then he quotes a ridiculous chase system. No professional sports bettors squander time and money with this crap

The wolves in sheep’s clothing can be the lowest of the low. Neither honest and good nor dishonest and bad are synonymous. 

Once upon a time, a notorious boiler room tout had a genuine handicapper, a guy who still sells picks on a high-volume network site, make picks for him. Unfortunately, his Long Island snake oil phone room peddlers found that high-profile national TV coin flips were easier to swindle a fool from his money, than a legitimate pick from MAC. 

The valid capper “Cap” as we will refer to him, was re-assigned. For a short period of time, the charlatan tout was selling well-researched picks. On the other hand, there are genuine cappers, who will never lie about their records nor claim they have inside info, yet their picks aren’t worth squat. 

Yes, the countless articles around the net regurgitating the warnings to stay away from the hard-sell touts are correct. Be just as worried about sweet talking swindler such as the ass clown on Reddit.

Joe Duffy actually has been a full-time pro handicapper and gambler since 1988 and part-time two years before that. Currently CEO of OffshoreInsiders.comhis articles, sports betting podcasts, and videos are the industry standard.

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