Tuesday GodsTips

By Mike Godsey

Tuesday, February 27,
2007

RECENT RUN: 5-2 CBB WISE GUY PLAYS,
OVER 60 PERCENT THIS YEAR, 7 WINNERS, 3 WISE GUY PLAYS

Promises Made,
Promises Delivered
goes 3-1 with CBB Wise Guy
plays last night. We have two college Wise Guy plays that both are gifts from
the schedule maker. We explain why. One is on ESPN. We may have tournament steam
inclusive in all purchases. Click now to
purchase

CBB

KANSAS STATE +2 Oklahoma State

Six losses in its last seven games, including four in a
row, have Oklahoma State
on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. This includes two straight
double digit home losses.

The Massey Comparison Ratings, combining the strengths and
weaknesses of all the top power ratings has Kansas State No. 49 and OSU No. 61. To say the least, K State is playing OSU at the right time.

 


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Tuesday Computer Trends

By Mike Godsey

Tuesday, February 26, 2007

All trends are ATS and from private and commercial
databases used by the OffshoreInsiders.com
elite handicappers: Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com,
Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com
and MasterLockLine.com

NBA

·       
New Orleans
over five straight road games

·       
Indiana
9-1 home to Phoenix

·       
Washington
over 20-6 off spread win

 

CBB

·       
Michigan
State 4-1 their last five games

·       
Pittsburgh
is 10-3 versus West Virginia

·       
BYU under 10-0 road
opponent attempts 53 or fewer shots per game

·       
Michigan
State
under 8-0 after two straight games with five or less steals

 

 


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March Madness Betting: ESPN Study Confirms What We’ve Said For Years

By Mike Godsey

Over the years, we have written many articles exposing betting urban legends. We warned you about the guards dominate inductive non-thinking. In a football article, we enlightened gamblers of a truth that applies in all ATS sports gambling, “Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping”. Our article about how great offensive teams win big games was an epiphany for many.

Peter Tierana of ESPN.com has written a series of articles that are the “Top 10 indicators of overachievement” in the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament as well as the “bottom five” or more accurately stated: the top five indicators of underachievement.

Frankly little we read surprised us. Using objective numbers, ESPN measured “Performance against seed expectations” which simply put is a study of how often the higher seeded team wins, and what factors are most common when the lower seeded team wins.

Clients know we consider units won to be the most accurate way to measure a gambling system rather than winning percentage, because it takes sample size into consideration. We have decades of experience to prove that is more statistically reliable.

ESPN ranks their attributes based what they call PASE (performance against seeded expectations). At least from a handicapping standpoint, much like above, we consider the actual +/- wins to be the higher confidence level. Thus I used ESPN’s data but based statistical confidence using a different criterion.

Here’s a newsflash: most gamblers lose.  In a related note, the overwhelming belief is “defense wins” championships and big games. We tell you time and time again, defensive intensity rises in the postseason making teams that can score big and tough baskets considerably more important.

Where’s Richard Dawson when you need him? Survey says teams that average scoring three points more than the tourney field are +46.8 victories. It is no surprise to us the highest +/- in the study using a single attribute.

Mercy me, guess what the worst +/- in the field is? Teams that have a points allowed per game below the tourney field average are -33.6 wins. The short of it is the biggest victim of upsets: superior defenses. The biggest culprits of pulling off upsets: superior offenses. Luckily for us, the subsidize-the-books gaming public believes it’s the polar opposite.

Teams with a margin of victory of 15 points or more had 244.7 “expected wins” but 288 actual wins, a +43.3 wins ratio. Margin is so much more accurate than wins and losses because luck plays no small part in winning or losing close games. Margin of victory validates a team’s truth strength.  Of course from the gamblers standpoint, margin of victory is everything.

Tieran then did a follow-up article on “attribute pairings”. That is simply when combining two factors, what were the results.  Of course because fewer games would be involved, by and large the +/- were not as high as when only one factor was needed. However PASE scores were generally higher.

The highest PASE of them all is at .509.  It says teams that got more than 60 percent of the scoring from the frontcourt and at least one preseason All-American win at the most disproportionate rate relative to seed.

Like we said, so many teams have quality backcourts.  There are so few teams have top level front courts. But those that do will advance in the Dance.

The “attribute pairings” in a modest surprise did though produce the highest +/-.  Teams with more than four straight tourney bids and a one-game losing streak entering the tourney had 207.6 expected wins but 258 actual wins a +50.4 margin.

Not that the four-letter conglomerate needs any help from us, but ESPN Insider over the years has produced copious content of value to the sports investor. March Madness bracketology is high on the list of categories.

Be warned, the data takes a lot of time to synthesize, parse and apply to sports betting. Perhaps a better alternative is to find a professional handicapper who does it for you. Ahem.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

categoriaSports Gambling Strategy Articles | commentoNo Comments dataFebruary 25th, 2007
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Sunday BetOnSports360.com

By Mike Godsey

2-25-07

ANOTHER BLUE RIBBON PLAY 43-8
ALL-TIME, GAME OF A GENERATION TOO 83.3 %

The Great One
is a stunning 43-8 all time with BLUE RIBBON plays including Sacramento
on 2-22 and Texas A&M on 2-21. He is 5-1 all-time
with his GAMES of a GENERATION. He has his Collegiate Basketball GAME of a
GENERATION plus an NBA O/U as a BLUE RIBBON play. Click now to
purchase

PRO BASKETBALL

>>>FREE PLAY is on
DETROIT over Chicago

Forensic ATS information on this game: Chicago 1-12 road
off an under this year, 8-20 road, 2-10 road off game as home favorites, 7-19
road, 2-8 road underdogs,

 


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Saturday Computer Trends

By Mike Godsey

Saturday, February 24, 2007

All trends are ATS and from private and commercial
databases used by the OffshoreInsiders.com
elite handicappers: Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com,
Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com
and MasterLockLine.com

CBB

·       
Cincinnati
3-11 skid

·       
George Washington 1-7 road

·       
Syracuse
7-1 at Providence

·       
North Carolina
State
10-1 at Florida
State

·       
Air Force 4-10 last 14

·       
Michigan
1-7 last eight

·       
Florida
8-3 to LSU

·       
Stanford 8-1 at UCLA

·       
Murray
State
10-2 to Tennessee
Martin


categoriaUncategorized | commentoNo Comments dataFebruary 24th, 2007
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By Mike Godsey

As most of you know, we had technical problems that caused
a new operating system to be installed.
When it became obvious that the problems would last longer than originally
told, we forwarded OffshoreInsiders.com
to our sister site TheOffshoreInsiders.com

Of course as luck would have it, shortly after we
forwarded it, the site was fine. Because
of propagation it’s
not as easy as turning a switch off and on. Hence, for the rest of the day, the
URL OffshoreInsiders.com may bounce back and forth between TheOffshoreInsiders.com and OffshoreInsiders.com

Please note, even if you entered the URL OffshoreInsiders.com Thursday,
you may have been forwarded to our sister site.
PLEASE ACCESS PLAYS FROM THE SITE
PURCHASED, essentially the site that “looks” the same: either OffshoreInsiders.com or TheOffshoreInsiders.com

Please remember to access plays from the site
purchase. Also note, if OffshoreInsiders.com is bouncing to TheOffshoreInsiders.com , please
try a proxy server like www.hidemyass.com
(yes that’s the actual name) and enter OffshoreInsiders.com
The
site may show up there.

We
apologize for the inconvenience and propagation should be complete shortly.


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Stevie Vincent Thursday

By Mike Godsey

2-22-07

TEXAS A&M MAKES IT A STUNNING 42-8 ALL TIME BLUE RIBBON, 18-6
NBA RUN, BLUE RIBBON + ANOTHER LEVEL 5 THURSDAY

The
Great One’s
remarkable run continued last night. Thanks to Texas A&M,
excluding pushes, The Great One is not 42-8 (84%)
with BLUE RIBBON plays. He has another
tonight, an NBA O/U. Remember forensic
handicapping is even more dominant with O/U plays. He also has a Level 5 college basketball.

It is $40 per day. Check it out at TheOffshoreInsiders.com

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

>>>FREE PLAY is on
RICE over Memphis

Forensic ATS information on this game: Rice is 17-8, 7-0
loss as a favorite, 9-0 off game as home favorites, 22-8 after a game in which
they made 20% or more of their 3 point shots, 6-0 off double digit home loss,
8-3 overall, Memphis 6-15 won but failed to cover last game,


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Stevie Vincent Wednesday Play

By Mike Godsey

2-21-07

ONLY L5 PLAY AUSTIN PEAY WINS, NOW BLUE RIBBON PLAY 41-8 ALL TIME, LAST ONE
2-17 ON
FAIRFIELD

It’s a 17-6 pro basketball run, but the big story is
Stevie goes to 30-6 all time with VEGAS INSIDER plays with Austin Peay last night. The Great One has a BLUE RIBBON CLUB tonight,
it’s 41-8 all time. The best place to get it is today
is TheOffshoreInsiders.com for
$40.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

>>>LEVEL 4 PLAY is
on MARSHALL over East
Carolina

Forensic ATS information on this game: East Carolina is
0-10 off road loss to the conference, 0-8 the last two years if they are 5-15
their last 20 SU, 1-10 off consecutive games as dog, 4-17 off 3 straight conference games the last
two years, Marshall 6-0 off consecutive
home games,

 


categoriaUncategorized | commentoNo Comments dataFebruary 21st, 2007
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MasterLockLine Tuesday

By Mike Godsey

To be more in line with the marketplace, MasterLockLine.com
will be $16 per day beginning 3/1. Packages will also change
accordingly. Feel free to lock into a long-term package now.

MasterLockLine.com can be purchased at TheOffshoreInsiders.com (PLEASE NOTE THE ALTERNATIVE SITE)

2-20-07

 

GETZ HIGHLY ANTICIPATED BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK WVU-PROV

Here is your locked and loaded menu for Tuesday, February
20, 2007

 

·       
Leo Getz is the
premier Big East handicapper in football and basketball as well as the top A-10
hoop analyst. He’s a stunning 12-1 this year with A-10 Majors, and 38-8 the
last 46 football and basketball Big East Game of the
Month, Game of the Week and Game of the Year plays. Big East Game of the Week West Virginia-Providence

·       
Bill Tanner is the No. 1 college and NBA
handicapper combined since 1995. Stats are out of 620 services monitored,
rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per play. He’s from the
basketball crazed state of Indiana
and his Platinum Plays in hoops hit around 62 percent. He also hits above 60 percent in college
football with “Plats”.   About 10 years ago, he lapped dinosaur “Doc” as the
top Big 10 handicapper in the land. 2
NBA and a college Platinum

·       
EXCLUSIVE: Kongpop Sukhibomrong, head of the
famed Pan-Asian Syndicate which dominated Asian and European soccer for years
has now taken over the North American sports scene. Pop’s
syndicate is the most requested source of winners in the history of the
SuperLockLine and MasterLockLine.
Today get 2 NBA steam

 

Team
Vegas, a top sports service rates their plays from Category 1 to Category
5. We pass along their Cat 5 plays to
you as premium. Cat 4 Sacramento

 

 

 

Key to rankings ALL
BASED ON ONE UNIT PER PLAY—

ROI—based on units risked versus units won ratio, minimum 50
units risked to qualify

Total net units won—how much money a service won based on one
unit per play including the juice

Winning percentage—self explanatory, minimum of 50 plays in
quoted category to quality for rankings

MasterLockLine.com gives you the highest rated
plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We
search our database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet,
scorephones, television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number
handicappers, tip sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more
times than not at a fraction of the cost. Please
note, in most cases we will not always release every top play from a specific
service, because in some cases such plays are cancelled out by other elite
service plays on the opposite side. These are top service plays that are
generally corroborated by other services and are not nullified by overwhelming
conflicting selections.


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By Mike Godsey

Current clients to OffshoreInsiders.com
will have the plays emailed
manually as our programmer changes the operating system. To purchase any plays of the “Bet It
Trinity”: Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360.com,
MasterLockLine.com, and Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com please simply visit our
backup site TheOffshoreInsiders.com,
same plays, same price!


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