Panthers vs. Falcons Bettors’ View From Top NFL Wagering Handicapper

It may be an ugly game for non-bettors (if there is such a monster), but it’s a great opportunity for gamblers as the disappointing Atlanta Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta is 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, going over 4-3. Carolina is 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, splitting 3-3 on totals. Falcons WR Julio Jones has been on the injury report most of the season, but has been taken off,

Odds: Carolina is -2.5, though in some books at -115 or -120. The total is 48, though in a couple of shops barely juiced to the over as the under can be had for -105. Check out NFL live lines as the lines opened at -3 +100 and 51.5.

Public betting percentages: Bettors prefer Carolina with 63 percent of bets and 52 percent of cash on the home team. Sixty-six percent of bets and 69 percent of money are on the over.

Power ratings and computer simulations ATS and OU:: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found 55 percent of simulation favor Atlanta with 64 percent going over. Another has Atlanta covering 53.3 percent of the time with 60.3 going under. Power ratings say Carolina should be -.5 and 50.5 with a 24-23 final expected in favor of Carolina.

Against the spread trends: Atlanta 2-8 after playing Lions, 6-22 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 6-1 road. Carolina 7-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 3-8 favorites.

Over-under trends: Atlanta under 10-0 after playing Detroit but over 20-8 versus an opponent with a losing record. Series under 11-3.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. And here we go! 13-7 NFL. Never, ever jump off the bandwagon of the greatest capper in history. Why do you think I’ve been a full-time handicapper since 1988? Thursday, NFL total.  Get the picks now

NFL Free Pick Patriots vs. Bills

Joe Duffy is 26-9 named plays in football including just the last two weeks: NFL GOY, SEC GOY, College Football GOY all winning. 13-7 NFL! For this weekend, SEC East GOY, AAC GOY among 10 college football winners for Friday and Saturday. Sunday, six NFL winners a side and five totals all at OffshoreInsiders.com

NEW ENGLAND +3.5 Buffalo

  • Buffalo is 5-2 SU, New England 2-4 SU so records imply Buffalo is better team significantly
  • Yet only -3.5 at home
  • Team with substantially worse SU record is not getting more than four points on road 142-81-7 including 65.5 percent if not getting more than 3.5
  • Not sold on Josh Allen
    • Completed 70% or more 3 times, all in first 4 games
    • Almost did last week, but against Jets
    • 3 INTs last three, one first four
    • Prove to me he’s among elite
  • Buffalo 2 wins to Jets, one to Fins
  • Newton needs wakeup call
    • Took benching like a man

NFL Betting Primer Week 7

Everything bettors must know for NFL betting for Sunday, October 25.

Best teams to bet on according to margin of cover. Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Team ATS Record ATS margin
Miami 4-2 10.9
Pittsburgh 4-1 7.2
Arizona 4-2 6.7

Best teams to bet against in terms of margin of cover.

Team ATS Record ATS margin
NY Jets 0-6 -11.3
Dallas 0-6 -8.9
Jacksonville 2-4 -5.7

Best over teams based on average number of points they’ve gone over by

Team Over Record Over-Under margin
New Orleans 5-0 10.8
Dallas 4-2 10.7
Las Vegas 4-0-1 10.6
Tennessee 4-1 10.1

Best under teams based on average number of points they’ve gone under by

Team Under Record Over-Under margin
Arizona 6-0 -4.8
LA Rams 4-2 -4.1
NY Giants 5-2 -3.4

Sunday, 10 NFL winners led by Wise Guy from Joe Duffy’s Picks. Oh, last week Detroit wins as NFL GOY and yesterday Oklahoma UNDER as College Football Total of the Year.  Get the picks now

ATS Trends

  • Kansas City 13-2 all
  • Chargers 0-7 home favorites
  • Seattle 7-0 road favorites
  • Detroit 3-12 last 15

Over-Under trends

  • Pittsburgh under 36-8-2 road
  • Cleveland over 7-0 favorites

Injuries

  • Cardinals superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable
    • 47 catches, 601 yards, 2 TDs
  • Jets WR Jamison Crowder is doubtful
    • Already 29 catches for 383 yards, 2 TDs
  • Saints WR Emmanuel Crowder out
    • 26 catches, 304 yards, 2 TDs
  • Buffalo is down to one true TD, Tyler Croft with has 6 catches
  • Rams WR Robert Woods is probable for Monday
  • Pats WR Julian Edelman questionable
    • 20 catches for 302 yards
  • Jets QB Sam Darnold is probable
    • Another shaky year with 3 TD and 4 INT
    • See above, likely to be without top WR

Top consensus plays in terms of percent of bets: Green Bay (69), Dallas (64), Seattle (64) as the usual public love of road favorites keeps rolling along.

Top consensus plays in terms of percent of money: Green Bay (97), Tennessee (88), Seattle (84)

Free Pick Florida State-Louisville

Superstar Joe Duffy is off a great football betting weekend and has a ton more coming up at OffshoreInsiders.com Here is a free play.

FLORIDA STATE +5 Louisville

  • The turbo-charged version of short road underdogs that you have heard about on satellite radio is 824-698-44
  • Home teams off bad offensive games are a go-against of 262-169-14
    • Louisville scored seven points to ND
  • Fading home teams off three straight road losses is 132-90-2
  • Don’t like that they are a trendy dog with 69 percent of bets
  • FSU OL showing progress and with Jordan Travis at QB, he buys time with his mobility
    • Banged up but probable
  • Cards literally have alternated solid defensive games with horrible ones
    • Last week allowed 12 to ND after allowing 46 to GA Tech
    • Likely to come up with a thud

Bills-Chiefs Betting Preview Written By Pro Gambler For Serious Whale Bettors

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday evening football in a start time made possible thanks to the disaster that is 2020. Each team is 4-1 SU and 3-2 in the back pocket. As the over-under is concerned, KC is 2-2-1 but Buffalo is 4-0-1 to the over. In fact, each team is off their first loss of the season. Teams off a loss in a game in which they were laying at least 9.5 bounce back to the tune of 101-72-5, though only 2-5 the last seven. This includes 63-40 on the road. This super system favors the Chiefs. Teams with at least three wins and off their first loss, when it is a blowout of 25 or more points, are 0-6 ats since 1992. That would say to fade Buffalo and bet on KC. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .800 or better are 61-40-3. This would favor Buffalo.

Odds: The Chiefs opened up at -3.5 and 58, but are up to -5.5, though the total has dropped to 55.5.

Public betting percentages: As is almost always the case, the public is betting the road favorite with 64 percent of bets and 87 percent of cash on KC. A slight majority of 55 percent of tickets are on the over, with 52 percent of money on under.

Power ratings: The premier power ratings say Kansas City should be -6.5 and 50.5 with a projected final of the Chiefs winning 28-21.

Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found KC covering the -5.5 by 51 percent, with 62 percent going under the 55.5. Their projected final is 29-22 in favor of the road teams. The other elite simulator has KC covering 53.9 percent of the time with 56.6 percent exceeding the total. Their game projection has KC winning by an average of 32.8-26.3.

Against the spread trends: Kansas City is 8-1 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo is 6-2 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo 7-3 series.

Over-under trends: KC over 11-4 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Promised made, promises delivered does it again. The outlier start that could only happen in 2020 is behind us. Winning days Saturday and Sunday, including 7-1 Sunday, sweeping Wise Guys led by NFL Game of the Year Detroit in a beatdown. In fact, the only NFL winner we had to sweat was big underdog Bengals blowing a 21-point lead but holding on.

5 ET NFL side. We told you we are about to explode and here we are. Together!  Get the picks now

6-0 Early Sweep Led by the Industry’s NFL Game of the Year; SNF and NLCS

Never, ever, ever doubt the greatest handicapper to ever live. It’s been a 2020 hindsight start to the year you could say. But a complete 6-0 sweep of the early card, only the Bengals were a sweat! The entire industry’s NFL Game of the Year on the Lions wins! Were you on the outside looking in? Still time to win! SNF total, plus NLCS Game 7, heavily discounted. See night only option! Get the picks now

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.

NFL

Wise Guy

DETROIT -3 Jacksonville 1 ET

NFL Game of the Year

We have an angle that deals with fading struggling home underdogs that is a stunning 33-0 ats since 2012. Go with bad road teams off a loss that was not a blowout is 252-151-5. Road favorites off bye under specific circumstances that apply today are 69-33 for 67.6 percent.

CINCINNATI +7.5 Indianapolis 1 ET

Going with road underdogs off a road game is a very good play. There are many systems that apply to that, but the best one is 89-25-5 for 78.1 percent in the history of our database. However, another that has to do with coming off a rout loss is 57-19-1. One of our simulators has the Bengals covering 57.9 percent, which for NFL sides is a high percentage and in fact the strongest side this week.

Major

ATLANTA +4 Minnesota 1 ET

Many angles about going with bad teams, especially on the road apply. Historically, the NFL is the top regression to the mean sport. One about going with winless underdogs is 114-65. We also preach how it is tough to manufacture emotion. The firing of Dan Quinn will light a fire under this underachieving team.

Cincinnati-Indianapolis OVER 46 1 ET

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The over version goes over at a rate of 750-530-26 including 102-53-6 since 2018. It has never had a losing season. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found nearly 60 percent of simulations going over.

Houston-Tennessee OVER 53.5 1 ET

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The over version goes over at a rate of 750-530-26 including 102-53-6 since 2018. It has never had a losing season.

Bears vs. Panthers Winning Football Picks

Literally finalizing picks, but big NFL Sunday, probably biggest of year and most likely the NFL Game of the Year is coming from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Chicago-Carolina (-1)

  • Fading quality teams off win as a home underdog is 121-70-4
  • Bears pretty healthy, though S Deon Bush is out
  • Teddy Bridgewater most underrated QB in NFL
  • Robby Anderson, DJ Moore two excellent WRs
    • 4th NFL in yards after catch
    • RBs 3rd in NFL in yards after contact
  • RB Mike Davis with 21 broken tackles
  • Bears only 5.7 yards per pass teams normally allowing 7.1 and 5.1 yards per play to 5.8
  • Chicago slightly above average defense, but well below offense
    • Allow 344 ypg and get only 323
  • Panthers 399.6 yards per game allow 355.6

Pick: PANTHERS -1

Ravens vs. Eagles Free NFL Pick

Free winning pick from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Ravens (-7.5)-Eagles

  • Baltimore is 4-1 SU including 2-0 road, Philly 1-3-1 SU, 0-1-1 home
  • Sets up anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 142-108-11 (Eagles)
  • Eagles 1-4 ats -5.8 but sets up a great regression to the mean angle about betting on bad teams 194-116-13
  • Yes Jackson is one of the top road QBs, but you can’t bet retroactively and 7.5 points on the road is a ton
  • Eagles allowed to have about 6,000 fans
  • Admittedly our power ratings, two say the line is about right; another simulator likes Ravens and big road favorites have been good plays in recent years
  • Probably short of premium play

FREE: EAGLES

Bet NFL live lines, latest odds

No Dak Prescott? Pokes Still NFC East Favorites With Andy Dalton

The bookies still believe Dallas can get it done with Andy Dalton. Or maybe they just don’t have faith in any of the other teams from the feeble NFC East.

The Cowboys were -150 favorites to capture the division going into Week 4, and their odds only slightly worsened as they move forward without Dak Prescott.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Cowboys still have relatively low Super Bowl odds, coming in at 25-1.

Despite their loss yesterday, the Chiefs remain Super Bowl LV favorites. The Ravens and Seahawks round out the top 3 on the board.

All odds are current from SportsBetting a licensed online sportsbook in Colorado.

Division odds –

AFC East
Bills -265
Patriots +230
Dolphins +2200
Jets +10000

AFC North
Ravens -175
Steelers +230
Browns +500
Bengals +10000

AFC South
Titans -110
Colts +120
Texans +800
Jaguars +5000

AFC West
Chiefs -1000
Raiders +600
Chargers +2500
Broncos +5000

NFC East
Cowboys -125
Eagles +120
Redskins +1200
Giants +3500

NFC North
Packers -330
Bears +340
Vikings +1500
Lions +2200

NFC South
Saints +100
Buccaneers +130
Panthers +500
Falcons +6600

NFC West
Seahawks -165
Rams +300
Cardinals +600
49ers +1000

Super Bowl odds –

Kansas City Chiefs 4-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-1
Seattle Seahawks 8-1
Green Bay Packers 10-1
New Orleans Saints 11-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-1
Buffalo Bills 14-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-1
Los Angeles Rams 18-1
Dallas Cowboys 25-1
Indianapolis Colts 25-1
New England Patriots 25-1
Cleveland Browns 28-1
Tennessee Titans 28-1
San Francisco 49ers 33-1
Chicago Bears 40-1
Las Vegas Raiders 40-1
Philadelphia Eagles 50-1
Minnesota Vikings 60-1
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Carolina Panthers 66-1
Los Angeles Chargers 80-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Detroit Lions 125-1
Miami Dolphins 150-1
Denver Broncos 150-1
Atlanta Falcons 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 250-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 300-1
Washington 2500-1
New York Giants 3500-1
New York Jets 5000-1

AFC Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 2-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
New England Patriots 12-1
Houston Texans 60-1
Cleveland Browns 14-1
Los Angeles Chargers 45-1
Tennessee Titans 14-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-2
Buffalo Bills 8-1
Indianapolis Colts 12-1
Las Vegas Raiders 22-1
Denver Broncos 75-1
New York Jets 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 125-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 150-1
Miami Dolphins 75-1

NFC Odds
New Orleans Saints 11-1
San Francisco 49ers 14-1
Philadelphia Eagles 22-1
Dallas Cowboys 10-1
Green Bay Packers 4-1
Seattle Seahawks 3-1
Los Angeles Rams 17-2
Chicago Bears 18-1
Minnesota Vikings 25-1
Arizona Cardinals 18-1
Atlanta Falcons 125-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-1
New York Giants 200-1
Detroit Lions 55-1
Carolina Panthers 28-1
Washington 125-1

OffshoreInsiders.com has all the winners on a daily basis! Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.

Critical NFL Betting Information

Joe Duffy already has several NFL plays up at press time at OffshoreInsiders.com

Las Vegas-Kansas City

  • Vegas is 3-1 ats covering by an average of 5.4 points per game, second best mark in NFL

Mami-San Francisco 

  • Jimmy Garappolo is likely to play for 49ers as starting QB was questionable
    • 4 TDs, 0 INT
  • Niners RB Raheem Mostert is questionable
    • 148 rushing, 110 receiving yards
  • Niners WR Deebo Samuel is questionable
    • 3 receptions for 35 yards

Indianapolis-Cleveland

  • Colts are 3-1 ats covering by 5.1 points per game
  • Browns are the top over team based on margin of cover, going over by 14.2 points per game, going over 3-1
  • Browns RB Nick Chubb is out

Carolina-Atlanta 

  • Falcons WR Julio Jones game-time decision
    • 15 receptions for 213 yards

Minnesota-Seattle 

  • Seattle is one of just two teams in NFL that are 4-0 ats, covering by 5 points per game

Arizona-Jets 

  • Jets are 0-4 ats failing to cover by -10.2 points per game, both worst in league
  • Joe Flacco starts at QB for Jets
  • Arizona is the top public consensus bet with 67 percent of wagers on them

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Rams-Washington

  • Terry McLaurin WR is probable
    • 26 receptions for 387 yards
  • Kyle Allen starts at QB for Washington
  • 63 percent chance of rain

Jacksonville-Houston

  • Houston is 0-4 ats failing by an average of -7.2 points per game

NYG-Dallas

  • Dallas is one of three 0-4 ats team, missing by an average of 5 points per game
  • Dallas has gone over 3-1, with a second in the league over margin of 13.1 points per game

Cincinnati-Baltimore 

  • Bengals RB Joe Mixon is questionable
    • 315 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 88 receiving yards plus another TD
  • The biggest totals consensus is on this game over with 68 percent of bets on such
  • 43 percent chance of rain