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Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

We are often asked what our best sport is in handicapping. At GodsTips.com we’ve gotten to the point where we are at the top of the list in every sport, so it’s difficult to single one out. However there is no question that our mastery of baseball in the early 1990s is what vaulted me to the point where professional sports handicapping would be my lifelong profession.

Yet, to be perfectly frank, while continuing to improve upon our results in other sports, over the last year and a half, I returned to the pack in baseball. It was time for some serious introspection. Fortuitously, going back to my handwritten spiral notebook scorephone days, I saved my picks, analysis and results from decades past.

Was I doing something differently all of a sudden? After a few hours of soul searching, it became obvious I slowly but surely abandoned some of the basics that got me to the pinnacle in the first place.

In some respects, I became a victim of my own success. In 2005, I had probably my best year winning what we call “Dandy Dogs”. Dandy Dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more (includes runline plays getting back 140 or more).

The downside was it led me to develop a bias against even small favorites. I’ve known and preached for years the basics of risk/reward ratio. For example, a 150 favorite needed to have a 60 percent chance of winning to be a break even bet or based on our threshold had to have 70 percent chance of winning to be a premium play. Yet there were nights I’d go 3-4 and still win money because of betting all dogs. Bit by bit, I developed personal chalk reluctance in betting.

Too many well-handicapped favorites of more than 120 became passes for me simply because of my increasing acute prejudice against laying the juice. Since returning to my roots, the 120-160 favorites have been a major reason behind my return to MLB handicapping prominence.

But even with picking our baseball underdogs, we became victims of the successes we had in other sports. We take great pride in being ahead of the curve with modern technology. The Internet made every team the “local team” from a handicapping standpoint because once regional information is now so easily accessible.

The World Wide Web has been a boon to us in preseason NFL with accurate key player rotation and motivation info. In college football and basketball it has revolutionized the way sharp players bet.

While super systems have been a great addition in all sports including baseball, our self scrutiny brought to light that we were allowing the Billy Beane and Bill James inspired new fangled stats to convince us out of winning picks.

In our first two decades of handicapping, we have had significant success with big underdogs by riding either hot but non-elite pitchers and/or fading struggling star pitchers. Yet information overload had us finding a fly ball/ground ball ratio or walks/strikeout percentage that talked us out of the same kind of plays that for decades won for us.

Let there be no doubt whatsoever that ERA and WHIP are still the two most important statistics in foretelling future results of pitchers. Likewise in handicapping offense we have streamlined with great success. Just like for 20 plus years, we returned to utilizing on base percentage and slugging percentage foremost.

We never stop fine tuning our techniques but our introspection reminds us sometimes we need to remember “if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”. Since returning to our roots in baseball handicapping, not-so-coincidently we have returned to the results our clients and we desire.

With all other sports, utilizing the Internet and cutting edge computer software is imperative to staying ahead of the curve, but MLB is the clear exception. Baseball handicapping is much like playing the game: master the basic fundamentals.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13^th last season?

As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7^th in hitting (24^th pitching).

Petco Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road, so there is no angle in the fact Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and David Wells for example do.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home. This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.

Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.

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Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Sharp players examine our daily news and notes on OffshoreInsiders.com. Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets on what to look for based on drastic changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Mets top hitters are getting healthy. Shawn Green is returning from the DL and David Wright is red hot.

Insight: The Mets June swoon has been a team effort—or lack thereof. Their pitching and offense have both been dreadful. However, last year the Mets offense was able to conceal their pitching deficiencies. Often having a margin of error is the difference for borderline set-up men being effective and not being successful.

Shawn Green was one of the Mets most productive hitters before going on the DL. He returns just as David Wright is swinging the bat well. This will take some of the heat off of slumping Carlos Delgado.

Their offense will come around and with a larger margin of error their mediocre bullpen will pitch better. It’s time to stop fading the Mets and ride the domino effect.

Update: Houston ousted closer Brad Lidge is back in a groove. He’s given up just three earned runs in his last 26 1/3 IP and has tentatively regained the role as closer.

Insight: In the name of full disclosure, as we are finishing off our article, Lidge gave up that third run to blow a save. But blowing a one-run lead aside, he is pitching much better. Lidge can be among the game’s best. A reliable closer is important not just for the obvious reasons, but also psychological reasons. Among them is that nothing can be as disconcerting as consistently blowing leads. The damaging snowball effect leads to prolonged slumps. If Lidge is back, the Astros have their edge back. We look for underachieving Houston to finally get on a roll.

Update: Roger Clemens is back, but the jugs gun says his fastball is not.

Insight: Clemens was so/so against an offensively challenged Pirate team. Clemens has stated in the past he is a power pitcher and will never be a finesse hurler. We doubt if he can adjust the way a more willing Curt Schilling has. Ironically because Clemens gives the Yankees some swagger, he may actually help them more in games he doesn’t pitch.

For those raising their eyebrows and saying how little sense that makes, be aware, we are huge believers in the Yogi-ism of “90 percent of the game is half mental”. This is more so in baseball where teams play every day. Sometimes it takes either a wake-up call or an emotional lift to turn a season around. That’s why we know from experience that getting arguably the greatest pitcher of all time will help the Yanks even when he’s not in the ballpark. Getting him past his prime though could mean good investment opportunities going against him when he pitches.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and is the Chief Analyst for Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com. Since his “JD of the ACC” scorephone days, he has been accepted as the top underdog and small favorite handicappers in the industry.

Anyone who has followed me over the years knows I preach that small favorites and underdogs are where the best value can be found in betting baseball odds. Who would have thought in a million years that I’d be looking at Randy Johnson or the New York Yankees as undervalued?

But that’s where we are thanks to slow starts by both. One of our credos in betting all sports is the Yogi Berra-ism of “90 percent of the game is half-mental”. Getting Roger Clemens into the starting rotation will pay wonders for them, not just in games he pitches.

He can be a true stopper, a pitcher who can end a team’s funk with a pitching gem. Underachieving teams are so often buoyed by a manager firing, major trade, or in this case, midseason free agent addition.

Admittedly, Johnson being undervalued will be short-lived. Just as your sportsbook was releasing odds reflective of the gambler’s belief that Johnson finally was showing his age, the future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame has been untouchable in his last four starts.

He’s given up four earned runs in his last 23 2/3 IP allowing 16 hits and just one walk. His .675 WHIP in those four starts is spectacular.

Whether it’s an overachieving or underachieving player or team, sharp players know that over a 162-game schedule, more times than not, they will play back to their mean. A high profile pitcher and a high profile team top our list of current entities bettors must keep a sharp eye on.