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December 25, 2007

Central Michigan-Purdue Betting Preview

Central Michigan takes on Purdue in the Motor City bowl. The Boilermakers are an eight-point favorite with a total of 71.5-72, so shop around at our vetted sportsbooks.

Taken from our sports betting previews from articles around the Internet, Purdue players have expressed how they want to go out on a high note after losing their final three regular season games including to rival Indiana (a GodsTips.com Wise Guy winner for sports bettors.

This is a rare bowl rematch as Purdue crushed the Chippewas 45-22 back on Sept. 23.

The Bowl previews told you that offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets 27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2 more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7 fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly even.

CMU went 7-2 straight up down the stretch and 5-3-1 against the spread during that span. They also exceeded the total in seven of their last eight. Purdue went 3-6 against the spread to close out the regular season, including three straight losses outright.

 


December 20, 2007

OffshoreInsiders

Utah takes on Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl in what is all but assured of being another windfall bowl season for sports bettors. The sportsbooks have Utah as a 7.5 point favorite, though they’ve gone up to eight in some houses. The total is 64.5-65.

Taken from our sports betting previews from articles around the Internet we note that the Utes are as healthy as they’ve been all year. Both defensive tackle Gabe Long and cornerback Brice McCain will play. The Naval Academy is healthy as well.

Navy is very one dimensional with their triple option as they average only 93.1 passing yards per game. Navy’s head coach Paul Johnson left to take the same job at Georgia Tech.

Also from our bowl previews we note that the big underdogs Midshipmen have the numbers on the offensive side of the ball. They get 4.8 more first downs per game, 81.8 total yards and 1.1 more yards per play. However while Navy gets 187.8 more rushing yards per game, Utah passes for 106.1 more.

Navy gets 1.7 more rushing yards per attempt and 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. Surprising to many, the Naval Academy also gets 6.1 more passing yards per reception.

The Utes come back and have the edge in most defensive stats. They allow 6.2 fewer first downs per game, 118.4 fewer yards on 1.6 less yards per play. They allow 3.1 less passing yards per attempt and they have a monster advantage in passing percentage allowing 18.7 less. The Utes have the upper hand in turnover ratio by 11.

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Utah allowed just 9.5 points per game in the second half of the season. While the Middies averaged 40 points per game, they were just 1-3 straight up to bowl teams.

December 19, 2007

Betting the Bowls and Winning With VegasExperts

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December 18, 2007

Bowl Breakdowns, Part 5

This is Part-5 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Jan. 1.

Wisconsin-Tennessee

The offensive stats are close. Tennessee gets 2.0 more first downs per game on 25.1 more total yards. However, Wisconsin has the most modest of edges, getting .1 more yards per play. Yet the Vols get 62.6 more passing yards per game. Talk about conflicting stats, the Badgers get 1.1 more passing yards per attempt and 2.7 more passing yards per reception.

The numbers give Wisconsin the check marks on defense. They allow 5.3 fewer first downs per game on 83.9 less yards. The Volunteers permit .2 fewer rushing yards per attempt. Every other comparison gives a small edge to the Badgers. But Tennessee has a turnover ratio of nine better than Wisky.

Arkansas-Missouri

While Missouri gets 6.1 more first downs per game on 35.4 more yards, Arkansas has the upper hand in the most important category (according to sports betting expert Joe Duffy), getting .3 more yards per play. But it’s a battle of differing styles as much as any bowl game. Arkansas picks up 131.7 more rushing yards per game; Mizzou 167.1 more passing yards per game. The Razorbacks get a significantly more 1.8 more rushing yards per attempt but Missouri .8 more passing yards per attempt. The Razorbacks have a more efficient passing game, accumulating .9 more passing yards per reception, yet the Tigers complete 11.9 more percent of their pass attempts.

It’s see-saw on defense as well. Missouri allows 29.1 less rushing yards per game, but Arkanas 50.3 fewer passing yards per game. The two most significant differences on defense are the Tigers permitting 1.8 less passing yards per reception, but the Razorbacks with a humungous passing percentage against superiority of 16.6.

Michigan-Florida

Florida has the huge upper hand on offense getting 4.7 more first downs per game, 110.8 yards per game, 1.8 more yards per play including 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. The Gators also complete 13.1 more percent of their passes.

On defense, it’s the Wolverines who are superior. They allow 4.7 less first downs per game on .5 fewer yards per play. However, Florida allows 27.4 fewer rushing yards per game on .6 less rushing yards per attempt. Michigan’s advantage is 98.2 fewer passing yards per game on 1.2 less passing yards per attempt and 1.6 less passing yards per reception. Michigan has a turnover ratio upper hand of seven.

Texas Tech-Virginia

High powered Tech gets 6.1 more first downs per game, 210.8 total yards per game on 2.4 more yards per play. However, the Cavs have the advantage in rushing yards per game by 61.8. The Red Raiders accumulate 2.1 more passing yards per attempt. They also have a commanding superiority in completion percentage by 13.8.

It’s pretty close on defense. The Cavs allow 62.7 less rushing yards per game, and 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt. But the Red Raiders permit 14.2 fewer passing yards per game. They have minimal edges as well in passing yards per attempt, passing yards per reception and passing percentage against. Virginia has the upper hand in turnover ratio by nine.

Illinois-USC

Contrary to what many may believe, Illinois actually averages a slight 4.9 more total yards per game on offense led by a superiority of 80.3 yards rushing. They also get 1.0 more rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 more passing yards per reception. The Trojans though complete 5.8 more percent of their passes.

USC allows 3.3 fewer first downs per game on 96.6 fewer total yards per game and 1.1 less yards per play. It’s a clean sweep of superiority on defense for Southern Cal giving up 1.3 less passing yards per attempt, 1.4 less passing yards per reception, and a completion percentage against of 4.8 less.

Hawaii-Georgia

Hawaii gets 7.3 more first downs per game on 143.6 more yards offensively. However, the Bulldogs run the ball much better getting 97.6 more yards per game on .8 more rushing yards per attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have a completion percentage of 16.8 better than the Dawgs.

The defensive comparison shows the teams closer than many may think. UGA allows 24.7 fewer yards per game, but Hawaii actually concedes .2 fewer yards per play. Hawaii allows .6 fewer passing yards per attempt on .7 less passing yards per reception. Turnover ratio comparison goes to the Bulldogs by five.

 

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December 13, 2007

Bowl Breakdowns, Part 4

This is Part-4 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 30-Dec. 31.

Colorado-Alabama

Offensively, the pure numbers could not be closer as Colorado gets 6.0 more yards per game on .1 more yards per play.

Defensively, the Crimson Tide permits 48.7 less yards per game on .7 fewer yards per play. While the Buffs allow .2 less rushing yards per play, Alabama allows .5 less rushing yards per attempt and .5 less passing yards per attempt. They have the turnover ratio edge by eight.

Air Force-California

Air Force gets 148.8 more rushing yards per game and California more 97.2 passing yards per game. The Falcons accumulate .5 more rushing yards per attempt and .5 more passing yards per attempt as well as completing 4.3 percent more of their passes.

On defense, Air Force allows 16.8 less rushing yards per game but the Golden Bears have the upper hand in passing yards allowed by 28.8 per game. The Falcons allow .7 less rushing yards per attempt but the Bears permit .5 less passing yards per attempt.

Air Force allows a completion percentage of 5.8 less and they have a turnover margin of seven better than Cal.

Oregon-South Florida

Oregon gets 3.7 more first downs per game and 39.6 more yards. South Florida though gets 11.2 more passing yards per game. While the Ducks gets .8 more rushing yards per attempt, South Florida gets .4 more passing yards per attempt and .6 more per catch.

USF leads in every major category on defense, but not overwhelmingly. They allow 57.8 less total yards per game and .7 less per play. The biggest edge is the Bulls allowing 1.4 less passing yards per reception. USF also has a turnover ratio of eight better.

Fresno State-Georgia Tech

Fresno has slight edges on offense. They get 21 more total yards per game on .3 more yards per play. Tech gets .1 more rushing yards per attempt while Fresno accrues 1.1 more passing yards per attempt, yet the Yellow Jackets .9 more passing yards per reception. The Bulldogs have a huge edge completing 12.6 more percent of their pass attempts.

On the other side of the ball, Tech allows 99.5 less total yards per game on .9 less yards per play. The Yellow Jackets have a humungous edge allowing 2.2 less rushing yards per attempt, but the Bulldogs allow .7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.9 less passing yards per reception.

Florida State-Kentucky

On offense it’s Kentucky in most major categories except passing yards per reception where the Noles get .9 more. But it’s the Wildcats in total yards by 78.6 per game, .5 more yards per play, and .7 in passing yards per attempt. They get a phenomenal 7.8 more first downs per game.

FSU allows 39.8 less total yards per game, though Kentucky permits 35.8 less passing yards per game. FSU has a considerable edge of 1.2 on rushing yards per attempt, but Kentucky is superior by 1.0 passing yards per reception

Indiana-Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State gets 89.9 more total yards per game on .9 more yards per play. The biggest edges are on rushing yards per attempt, where OSU gets the checkmark by 1.2 and passing yards per reception by 2.3. The Hoosiers though complete 2.5 more percent of their pass attempts.

On defense, the Cowboys allow 2.2 less first downs per game but the Hoosiers 49.1 less total yards per game. Indiana permits .9 less yards per play. The Hoosiers pass defense is much better, allowing 1.4 less passing yards per attempt and per catch as well as permitting a completion percentage of 4.8 less.

Auburn-Clemson

Clemson gets 2.7 more first downs per game, 50.3 more total yards per game on .7 more yards per play. The SEC Tigers though gets .8 more passing yards per reception. Clemson completes a considerable 8.9 more percent of their passes.

Clemson also leads in most defensive classifications but modestly. They allow 25.1 less total yards per game, but are dead even in yards per play. Clemson has a turnover margin of 10 better.

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Bowl Breakdowns, Part 3


This is Part-3 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 28-Dec. 29.

Michigan State-Boston College

To say the least, these two teams are closely matched statistically on both sides of the ball. BC does get 3.3 more first downs per game but they are dead even in yards per play. Michigan State gets 93.5 more rushing yards per game but Boston College accrues 103.8 more passing yards. It’s a net edge of 10.3 for the Eagles.

However, the Spartans do get .9 more rushing yards per attempt and .8 more passing yards per reception.

Boston College allows19.9 fewer total yards per game on .7 less yards per play and 66 fewer rushing yards per game. However, MSU allows 46.1 fewer passing yards per game. In the key areas of yards per play, BC has the upper hand in rushing yards per attempt allowed of 1.6, passing yards per attempt of .6 and passing yards per reception of .9. Even the turnover ratio is close with Mich State having a net edge of two.

TCU-Houston

It’s Houston as the mathematically superior team on the offensive side of the ball, but TCU on defense. Houston gets 3.7 more first downs per game, 124.8 more yards, 1.4 more yards per play. This is on 1.3 more rushing yards per attempt, 1.8 more passing yards per attempt and 1.2 more passing yards per reception. The Cougars also complete 9.5 more percent of the passes.

The only exception to Houston winning every offensive and TCU every defensive matchup is Houston allowing 2.6 less percent pass completions on defense. Other than that, the Horned Frogs are allowing 46.6 fewer total yards per game, on 1.1 less yards per play. The biggest edge is in yards per catch allowed at 3.6.

Maryland-Oregon State

Oregon State has slight total yards advantages on both sides of the ball, but not so much in all the yards per rush/pass/play categories. OSU has a 20.3 yards per game upper hand on offense. However the Terps get a slight .2 yards per play edge. Maryland gets 1.8 more passing yards per attempt and 1.3 more passing yards per reception. The Terrapins also complete 8.8 more percent of the passes.

Oregon State allows 42.9 less yards per game and .8 less yards per play. Maryland though does allow 18.8 fewer passing yards. The Beavers allow 1.8 fewer rushing yards per attempt, but Maryland allows .2 less passing yards per attempt and 1.9 less passing yards per reception. Oregon State allows 7.4 less percent of their opponents passes to be completed. Maryland has a turnover ratio advantage of six.

Central Florida-Mississippi State

Central Florida has accrued 121.3 more total yards per game on 1.4 more yards per play. UCF gets 1.6 more rushing yards per attempt and 1.6 more passing yards per attempt as well as 1.3 more passing yards per reception. The Golden Eagles complete 7.2 more percent of their passes.

Mississippi State has the advantage in more defensive categories though. They allow 66.1 less passing yards, though Central Florida allows 27.9 less rushing yards. The biggest edge is in turnover ratio where UCF is 10 better.

Penn State-Texas A&M

The teams could not be closer offensively with A&M getting a measly 3.8 more yards per game but they are dead even in yards per play and close in ever other category.

Penn State sweeps the defense, allowing 109.4 less yards per game on 1.3 less yards per play. The Nittany Lions allow 1.5 less rushing yards per attempt and 1.3 passing yards per attempt.

The Aggies have a turnover ratio of seven better.

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December 06, 2007

Bowl Breakdowns, Part 2

This is Part-2 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 23-Dec. 27.

East Carolina-Boise State

Boise is much better on both sides of the ball. They get 4.9 more first downs per game on 98.6 total yards per game and .7 more yards per play. East Carolina holds their own in ball control though as the teams are dead even in rushing yards per attempt. Boise gets 1.5 more passing yards per attempt but their passing yards per reception is actually less than many may think, getting a minimal .5 more than the Pirates.

The Broncos actually have slightly better margins of advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Boise boys allow 5.7 fewer first downs per game, 107.7 fewer yards on .8 less yards per play allowed. The superiority is pretty consistent though as they allow .4 less rushing yards per attempt and 1.1 less passing yards per attempt. However, ECU allows .2 fewer passing yards per reception. Boise has a commanding advantage in pass completion percentage allowing 10.2 less. Before you conclude the stats say Boise should be an even bigger chalk, note ECU protects the ball much better with a turnover ratio 10 better than BSU.

Central Michigan-Purdue

Offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets 27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2 more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7 fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly even.

Texas-Arizona State

Texas is slightly better overall offensively, but Arizona State is better in the air. The Longhorns amass 52 more yards per game on .8 more yards per play. Texas has the smash mouth upper hand by a significant 1.5 more yards per rush. However it’s ASU that accrues .4 more passing yards per attempt and .7 more passing yards per reception.

Contrary to the stereotype of the Pac-10, the Sun Devils allow 3.3 fewer first downs per game, 35.9 fewer yards and .2 less yards per play. Texas though allows 7.8 fewer yards per rush. The Longhorns get the edge in rushing yards per attempt allowed by .6, but ASU allows 1.0 passing yards per attempt but Texas .4 less passing yards per reception allowed.

ASU has significant superiority on passing percentage allowed by 10.1 and turnover ratio by 10.

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December 04, 2007

2007 College Bowl Previews, Part 1

This is Part-1 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 20-22.

Navy-Utah

The big underdogs Midshipmen have the numbers on the offensive side of the ball. They get 4.8 more first downs per game, 81.8 total yards and 1.1 more yards per play. However while Navy gets 187.8 more rushing yards per game, Utah passes for 106.1 more.

Navy gets 1.7 more rushing yards per attempt and 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. Surprising to many, the Naval Academy also gets 6.1 more passing yards per reception.

The Utes come back and have the edge in most defensive stats. They allow 6.2 fewer first downs per game, 118.4 fewer yards on 1.6 less yards per play. They allow 3.1 less passing yards per attempt and they have a monster advantage in passing percentage allowing 18.7 less. The Utes have the upper hand in turnover ratio by 11.

Florida Atlantic-Memphis

Memphis has slight edges on the offensive side of the ball, but by only 34.3 yards per game and .2 yards per play. However, showing how close they are mathematically on offense, FAU gets .5 more passing yards per reception.

Likewise Florida Atlantic gets the nod defensively, but not by much. They allow 22.4 less total yards per game and .6 less yards per play. The biggest edge by either team is on turnover ratio where Florida Atlantic has a superiority of 13.

Southern Miss-Cincinnati

The Bearcats have the numbers on offense getting 64.2 more yards on .7 more yards per play. However, the Eagles get 18.4 more rushing yards per game. Cincy gets 1.9 more passing yards per reception.

Defensively it’s very close. They are 1.4 yards per game allowed apart with Southern Mississippi getting the nominal win. But the Bearcats actually give up .3 fewer yards per play. While Cincinnati is better against the run by 42.8 yards per game and a full yard per carry, Southern Miss is superior by 44.2 passing yards per game, though it’s Cincy allowing .1 less passing yards per attempt and .6 less per catch. As is the case with many statistically evenly matched squads, where the big advantage lies is in the turnover margin category. Give that to Cincinnati by a significant margin of 21.

Nevada Reno-New Mexico

Nevada has a substantial lead in every significant offensive category except completion percentage in which New Mexico gets the edge by 4.8. Nevada gets 130.8 more total yards per game, 1.6 more yards per play. The edge is across the board 1.5 rushing yards per attempt, 2.2 passing yards per attempt and a very efficient 5.2 more passing yards per reception. Nevada also gets 6.2 more first downs per game.

New Mexico has the better statistical defense, but by slightly smaller margins. They allow 72.3 fewer total yards on 1.0 less yards per play. Talk about consistent, New Mexico allows 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 less passing yards per attempt.

UCLA-BYU

The Cougars are a cut above on each side of the ball, especially on offense. BYU gets 125 more total yards per game, led by 8.0 more first downs and 1.1 more yards per play. They also get 1.6 more passing yards per attempt and complete a commanding 11.3 more percent of their pass attempts.

The teams are dead even defensively on the ever important yards per play category, though BYU allows 39.5 less total yards per game. All in all, the teams are extremely close in the major handicapping defensive comparisons.

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December 03, 2007

NCAA Condemns Betting While Fixing Their Bets

The NCAA has long taken a harsh anti-gambling stance. They have a well-orchestrated “Don’t Bet on It” campaign including a website (DontBetOnIt.org).

Yet, the phony organization has a $100 million gamble and has fixed the outcome to ensure they will not lose the money they anted. The NCAA, in conjunction with their mega-million dollar betting syndicate of six BCS conferences, college presidents and the television networks, created the BCS 11 years ago. Topping the list of goals of the sweepstakes is to come up with a true national championship game.

The quandary is, ala ice skating, that the participants are determined by a very subjective equation that consists of judges in two polls and the computer average of six ranking systems. The compilation results in a point system that ranks each team, with the top two meeting to determine a champion.

However, the many imperfections of the method allows for the possibility that the NCAA could lose their bet. The winner of that alleged championship game may not wind up with the most BCS points when the point system was applied after the bowl games.

The new calculations could produce a top ranked team that did not even participate in the BCS Championship game. We saw an example of that when LSU earned a spot in this year’s game, leapfrogging a Virginia Tech team that won and a Georgia squad that did not play because they already finished their season.

There are endless scenarios in which the victor of Ohio State-LSU could also be leapfrogged. For example, LSU supporters point out that both of the Tigers losses were in overtime, hence their setbacks should be weighted less.

Okay, so what if the BCS Championship game also goes into overtime, should that victory be weighted less, allowing impressive bowl wins by Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, USC or Kansas to bypass them?

What if Hawaii stuns Georgia in impressive fashion? All of a sudden that sheds new light on their record and validates them as the only undefeated team in the country.

Well aware of the nightmare scenario, the NCAA has fixed the outcome. Coaches have as much right to vote their conscience as constituents do in Cuban elections. Regardless of who a coach believes should be No. 1 following the postseason results, they are mandated to declare the winner of the BCS’ gamble as champion. Is this not blatant shaving of the BCS’s own point system?

In fact, the Bowl Championship Series Rankings are not even recalculated following the bowls. A true final poll could reveal the BCS lost their wager. No problem, the NCAA comes up with a point system then manipulates the ultimate outcome to guarantee there will be no undesired results. If a player does that, it’s called point shaving. When the NCAA does the same thing, they call it the Bowl Championship Series.

College athletes, visit the DontBetOnIt.org site. Remember, when the NCAA informs you about all the evils of gambling and point shaving, do as they say, not as they do.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. Make sure you are happy with the outcome of the college football bowls by getting his GodsTips winning selections at OffshoreInsiders.com


December 01, 2007

Are Any Radio Touts Real Football Handicappers?

Joe Wiz is joining Jonathan Stone, Freeplays, Jeff Allen, Bobby Ventura, Sebastian, Duke Wins, Mike Wynn as screaming on my radio that he never loses. Does anybody beat Joe Whiz? He is ranked No. 461 in units won this year, so the answer is yes. For the top picks from the top handicappers visit MasterLockLine.com

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