No Joke, Only Fools Are On the Outside Looking In

Saturday, April 1, 2006

 

Our Million Dollar March extends to early April as the Dream Team of Godspicks.com is 21-10 with CBB Wise Guy plays including South
Carolina
in the NIT Final. We have both Final 4 sides
and a total and two Final 4 Wise Guys among them. The ENTIRE card is
just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
 
    

Don’t fret college coming to an end, because the news is
getting better: Check out our phenomenal offer for
baseball season
, every play, every day, and every
sport for $7.29 per day.

NBA

SAN ANTONIO -10’ Washington

It’s a very tough spot for the Wizards playing their sixth
consecutive road game including their fourth in six nights. Remember that
quality teams take out their frustrations, not just a game after a defeat but several.  The Spurs are off of consecutive double digit
road wins since losing at Seattle.

Over their last 10 home games the Spurs are outscoring
teams 101-88.  While Washington
is admittedly playing better ball on the road lately, they’ve been suspect for
the year overall.  Tired and playing a
Spurs team that is angry off their loss a few games ago, we see yet another
Spurs home blowout.

Final Four Details



Saturday, April 1, 2006

 

South Carolina
Thursday made it 21-10 with college Wise Guy plays. Though it’s pedestrian by our standards, yet
again the Center of the Handicapping
Universe
Godspicks.com, led by Mr. March Joe Duffy, is the Industry Standard.

We have both Final Four sides, including a Wise Guy and a
Wise Guy total. That’s just to
start! We may have the other total and
we are working on the NBA to send late morning.
The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.

Don’t fret college coming to an end, because the news is
getting better: Check out our phenomenal
offer for baseball season
, every play, every day, every sport for
$7.29 per day.

CBB

·       
Showing the different paces they play, UCLA averages
7.7 fewer FG attempts against on defense but Memphis
attempts 7.7 more per game

·       
Florida
makes 2.0 percent more of their shots per game, but George Mason holds foes to
1.2 less

·       
George Mason is a perfect 7-0 this year against
teams called for less than 17 fouls per game

·       
Florida
is 9-1 this year when allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games

·       
Florida
is 10-1 in all tournament games this year

·       
UCLA has gone under 12-2 this year if they are
4-1 in their last five SU

 

UCLA-LSU

Mercury News

Unfortunately for the Bruins, they might not be at full
strength up front. Friday morning, starting center Ryan Hollins
incurred a bruise above his right knee during the morning practice at the RCA
Dome. He has swelling and was expected to spend much of Friday night and this
morning getting ice and stimulation treatments. Thursday, reserve center
Lorenzo Mata broke his nose in practice. Trainer Tony Spino
snapped the cartilage back into place, and Mata will play wearing a protective
mask.

News and Notes for Saturday



Friday, March 31, 2006

Darn, only three games left in college basketball. We hit
our only hoop Wise Guy play last night on the ‘Cocks in a rout.  At this point it looks like at least one Wise
Guy side for tomorrow’s Final Four and a Major on the other.  We still have some research on the
totals.  But tonight we have three NBA
Major plays. 

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  THE FOUR-DAY pass takes you through Monday’s
national championship game and perhaps get a taste of our small favorite and
dog baseball prowess.

Don’t fret college coming to an end, because the news is
getting better: Check out our phenomenal
offer for baseball season
, every play, every day, every
sport for $7.29 per day.

NBA

Grizzlies-Hornets

New Orleans Times Picayune

New Orleans is
after a 4-14 showing since the All-Star break outside the playoff teams. Yes,
the swooning, slapdash Hornets (33-37) remain in the hunt for the eighth and
final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Entering tonight’s game against
the Memphis Grizzlies (41-31) at Ford
Center
, the Hornets are two games
out—with 12 to go. In the conference, six teams are established in playoff
position, while four others vie for the final two spots. The Los Angeles Lakers
(38-34) played the late game Thursday, but entered that day in the seventh spot
and two games ahead of the Sacramento Kings (36-36). They returned to Oklahoma
City
from a 1-3 road trip after stealing an 86-85
victory from Golden State
late Wednesday night, despite missing four key players in the final minutes.
Entering tonight’s game, forward Desmond Mason (knee) is doubtful, and center P.J. Brown (ankle), guard Speedy Claxton (toe) and forward
David West (ankle) are questionable.

Mavericks-Magic

Dallas Morning News

The Mavericks put up a good fight. But it’s clear now that
they can’t get it done in the NBA’s high-rent district without Josh Howard.
Their record since he went out with a strained left hamstring is 8-6. He came
back for 13 minutes in one game. But since that false
start nine games ago, they’re 5-4. Avery Johnson hasn’t lost three games in a
row in his coaching career, and he doesn’t want to change that now. The Orlando
Magic may be headed to the lottery. But at this point, with the Mavericks on a
downturn, nothing can be taken for granted. None of the Mavericks believe their
recent mediocrity is reason to fret.

Howard will be back, presumably
healthy and rested. Adrian Griffin isn’t far behind. Devin Harris is due back
next week, perhaps. Each absence cannot be overstated. Harris has missed 10
consecutive games and the Mavericks are 5-5. Harris, Griffin
and Howard are the Mavericks’ three best perimeter
defenders. Getting them all back soon ensures the future isn’t bleak.

Nuggets-Timberwolves

Daily Camera

Despite being third in the Northwest Division, Minnesota
is dangerously close to being eliminated from playoff contention.  The T-wolves got their second win in a row on
Wednesday, beating Orlando
103-91.  Kevin Garnett scored 27 points
and grabbed 19 rebounds.  Minnesota
is 0-8 on the road this month and 8-27 for the season, including 0-1 in Denver.
With 10 games to go, Denver’s magic
number for clinching the Northwest Division is 61/2.  The Nuggets fell at home to second-place Utah
115-104 on Wednesday.

Wizards-Rockets

Washington Times

The Wizards had
put the finishing touches on preparations for tonight’s game against the
Houston Rockets, and the light mood was understandable considering what the
Wizards have endured on this six-game road trip, which has thus far produced
three wins in four games.     Most recently, the Wizards
beat the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night without the league’s fourth-leading
scorer, Gilbert Arenas, who had flu-like symptoms, and reserve center Brendan
Haywood (back).     It was a remarkable win, considering
the Wizards have relied on Arenas (fifth in the league in minutes a game)
perhaps as much as any team in the league has relied on one player. And the
Wizards hadn’t won in Sacramento since 1996. The Wizards (37-33) have won three
games in six days, a showing that belies their struggles on the road: It took
them four months just to win 10 road games before this Western Conference road
trip began.

Gaming Matchups, Sports Predictions From Top 3 Sources

Get the top sports service plays on today’s games with the
Handicappers
Sampler Rundown
of who is hot and who has the big plays featuring the  Bet it Trinty sites featured at JoeDuffy.net:
Godspicks.com,
AllianceHandicapping.com,
KnockoutPicks.com 
 






Response To Professor’s Contention About Point Shaving

University of Pennsylvania, not to be confused with my alma mater California University of Pennsylvania, economist Justin Wolfers wrote a paper in which he used “forensic economics” to find alleged patterns of cheating in college basketball in online casino betting.

Wolfers asserts that point shaving is occurring in about five percent of games that involve large pointspreads. If only the good professor read any of our sports gaming articles such as “It is Good to Pick Bad” he wouldn’t have come up with such preposterous conclusions, knowing there is a very logical reason large underdogs cover more than 50 percent of the time.

To the surprise of no sharp sports handicapper, Mr. Wolfers found that big underdogs cover a disproportionate percentage of close spread outcomes. Wolfers’ statistical “big dog” is a team getting 12 or more points.  As the NY Times puts it “There is a strange dearth of games in which 12-point favorites win by, say, 13 or 16 points. And there are a lot of games that they win by 11 points or slightly less. There is just no good explanation for this.”

Poppycock. While I am sure the Ivy League lecturer is a competent economist, he needs to take Professor Joe Duffy’s “Sports Handicapping for Dummies” class, ah I guess whenever I offer one.

Without question the first factoid, on the first day of class will be that the point spread is not and will never be a prediction on the outcome of the game.  It is a “prediction” on what the spread needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of money on each side.  Second factoid in my lecture will be that the public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this of great magnitude and indisputable fact is accounted for in the college basketball betting line.

Professor Wolfers research paper claims the spread is “a market-based forecast of home team’s winning margin”.  Don’t get caught up in semantics as the “winning margin” could also be a negative number. Damn numbers crunchers.   However his misconception of what the spread actually is proves fatal to his conclusions.  The “market based forecast” is predicting perception, not eventual reality.

Let me give you an analogy.  Let’s say Professor Wolfers wanted to do a study on which movie critics are the most and least accurate at predicting the Academy Award winners.  He studied 20 critics’ lists from the last 15 years.  But as an example, 14 of the critics were listing who they felt should win, while six were actually predicting who they think would win.  In many cases there is a huge differentiation.  But if the professors’ study were oblivious to this, it makes his entire paper greatly flawed if not totally irrelevant.

As we mention in the above “It is Good to Pick Bad” article, I have flat out had gamblers tell me, “If I am going to lose, I’d rather lose betting (the vastly superior team) than betting on (the grossly inferior team).” Never in my life have I heard a more self-fulfilling prophecy.

Quite cognizant of the betting patterns of the gambler, the oddsmakers adjust accordingly. If Duke is playing Eastern Michigan and the spread “should be” without public betting tendencies taken into consideration, 14 points, the spread will be posted at say 16.  If it “should” be 24, the line will open at 27 or even higher.

We exploit that indisputable fact on a regular basis with our “official outlaw line”.  Premium customers are told several times a week that many plays are based on the deviation and that “The official outlaw line is what the odds would be if there was no consideration given to public perception and balancing the action.  It is the more accurate line from the standpoint of the bettor.”

Well Professor, if you only asked I could have told you with large pointspreads there is an unbalanced digression when it comes to “off lines”.  It is because of public betting inclinations that big dogs get too many points more often than any subset. Here is gambling economics—if big favorites covered 50 percent of the time, the books would lose money because square players love betting big favorites.  As a result one has to pay retail not wholesale often when betting big favorites by laying an extra point or two.

So “off lines” will involve what should be a 14 point spread instead being 16 much more often than four being six or two points.  The difference between 14 and 16 points means a lot of big dogs will cover close spread games.

Nothing, I mean nothing in the professor’s paper should surprise any sharp player except his defective supposition. Furthermore I strongly doubt that most fixed games will involve a team covering by only one or two points.  Too much is left to chance if that happened.

In my educated opinion, most fixed games would involve covering by large margins, a pattern the Quaker educator admits to not finding with his fallacious forensics.

I’m not claiming in any way that there is no chicanery involved in the outcome of games.  But I am saying the only thing Wolfers proved is he has no idea what a point spread is based on.

Ironically my highly unscientific study tells me that most gamblers and handicappers suspect just the opposite in college sports—if anything too often coaches run up the score for no reason.

I know nothing about fixing games, but I suspect those who could, would be wealthy alum who have a lot of influence with the coaching staff.  We already know about the improprieties of alumni and boosters in recruiting.  I can’t help but highly doubt no booster has asked for any favors in return for those thousand dollar handshakes.

A simple don’t ask, don’t tell conversation could go along the lines of “coach, I am going to make a donation to the athletic program on Monday.  I sure will be feeling much more generous though if you guys win this Saturday by 15 or more points.  Can you help me feel charitable coach?” Wink.

Do I have any substantiation of my suspicions?  No, nothing that rises above the water cooler burden of proof, but I’d argue it’s a notch above what the professor’s so easily refuted evidence presents us.

The biggest irony of his paper is that he may not realize he may have uncovered something even more significant: forensic handicapping.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are the most sought after in the world. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Wednesday News and Notes

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services is DAILY on the Handicappers
Sampler.

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Baseball is almost here, but we are winding up another
great college hoop season with a 2-1 NIT last night and with all plays are
latest run is 28-14
with Wise Guy plays.  Often we can go 5-6
days or more without an NBA Wise Guy play but tonight we have three in one
night.  It includes our NBA Twosome Side
and Total of the Month.
  We
also have an NBA Major.

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Also we now have yearly and other packages
available via
Western
Union
. Every
play, every sport for a year is $2,450. 
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NBA

Pacers-Hawks

Indy Star

The Pacers are 0-3 this season against the Hawks, who have
the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference. A loss tonight would make the
Pacers the only team Atlanta will
sweep this season.

Mavericks-Cavaliers

Cleveland Plain Dealer

The Cavaliers (41-29) have not lost since spitting up a
53-34 halftime lead at American Airlines Arena, winning five straight to set up
tonight’s rematch against the Mavericks (54-16) at The Q. The third quarter in Dallas
was the worst of the season and arguably one of the worst in the 36-year
history of the Cleveland franchise.
In being outscored, 27-8, the Cavaliers shot 19 percent (3-of-16) from the
field.

Celtics-Knicks

Boston Globe

The Knicks are 4-12 since acquiring Francis from Orlando
Feb. 22 and have lost their last five.  New
York
’s last victory came against Eastern
Conference-leading Detroit March 17.

Grizzlies-Nets

Sports Ticker

The hottest team in the NBA, the Nets have won nine in a
row, with the last two among their best victories all season. They went on the
road to knock off Eastern Conference-leading Detroit
on Sunday before dominating Pacific Division-leading Phoenix
on Monday. The Grizzlies carried a seven-game winning streak into a 98-97 loss
to Seattle on Tuesday.

Wednesday Godspicks



Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Yes we did go 2-1 in the NIT again last night led by Wise
Guy South Carolina and we sure
hate to see college hoops with only a few games left.  But remember baseball, the sport thanks to
underdogs you can hit higher than 100 percent has us licking our chops. But
tons of money are to be made between now and first
pitch.

Like we said anyone and everyone who cares about long term
domination is already a permanent client of The Center of the Handicapping Universe Godspicks.com.  For those who want to hop on the hot hand
before beginning the rest of your gambling life with us, we are 28-14 our last 42 Wise Guy plays
and have THREE in the NBA tonight including our NBA Side and Total Twosome of
the Month.

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Also we now have yearly and other packages
available via
Western
Union
. Every
play, every sport for a year is $2,450. 
Email us at the contact form at Godspicks.com to make arrangements or
for Neteller payments. Updated and advance news and
notes FREE
at JoeDuffy.net—a MUST for March Madness.

NBA

TORONTO +7 Miami

This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU game.  We discount 98 percent of trends, but this
has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around
the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or
visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are
most under or overvalued.

Even though Miami
is 17-3 their last 20 SU, they are 4-12 their last 16.  It’s tough to get a good price on Miami.  Yes we know Toronto
will be without Chris Bosh which is a big reason this does not rise to the
level of premium play.  That is yet
another reason for Miami to sleep
walk as with 12 games remaining and a big lead on second-place Washington,
Miami may only have to win two more
games to clinch the division.

After a nightmare start, Toronto
has been competitive over the last few months. 
It’s just too many points at home against a team looking ahead to the
postseason.

Tuesday Sampler

Tuesday, March 28,
2006

Last night we improved to 27-12 our last 39 Wise Guy plays
when underdog New Jersey won
outright by 38 points. We have Wise Guy plays on both NIT sides and we have an
NIT Total. We also have an NBA Wise Guy and four NBA Majors.  That’s eight gifts for Tuesday in all
including us going to 30-12 with Wise Guy plays. 

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Also we now have yearly and other packages
available via
Western
Union
. Every
play, every sport for a year is $2,450. 
Email us at the contact form at Godspicks.com to make arrangements or
for Neteller payments. Updated and advance news and
notes FREE
at JoeDuffy.net—a MUST for March Madness.

Ah again the 16-18 hour days pay
off for you and me.  Surely you are not
still on the outside looking in, are you? Don’t let the baseball dog and small
favorite domination pass you by.

Today’s good stuff:

Get 107 lines at Canbet if you tell them JoeDuffy.net sent you.

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juice on Tuesdays
and free ½ points on Fridays at MyBookie

Today’s news and notes, as well as advanced news and notes
are up now.

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from Sports-Handicapper.com are daily at a sister site. Prices reduced.  Reduced
juice Tuesdays and free half point Fridays and more here.

 

Sports-Handicapper.com
just keeps winning.  Every period you can
come up with, weeks, months or years, Sports-Handicapper.com
is better than 60-65 percent. Even the proprietors of Sports-Handicapper.com
are shocked at how accurate having the power of 620 sports services behind
every selection has been. 

This is your Sports-Handicapper for Tuesday,
March 28, 2006

We told you yesterday Going
back to the days of the free scorephone Super Lock days, since 1980 only 17
times has a sports service ever released a Game of the Year play while ranked
No. 1 in that sport.  It’s hit at a 14-2-1 rate.  History tonight!  The No. 1 NBA sports service stats are out of
620 services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit
per play has their 2006 NBA Game of the Year cashed in with Utah Jazz in a
blowout!

·       
Jared Lindsey a handicapper out of Sarasota, FL
is among the Top 5
handicappers all sports combined
since 1995-present. Stats are out of 620
services monitored, rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per
play. We release his 5* plays.  He has two 5*s tonight in the NIT having hit 6-of-7

·       
Bill Tanner is the No. 1 college and NBA
handicapper combined since 1995. Stats are out of 620 services monitored,
rankings based on total net units won based on ONE unit per play. He’s from the
basketball crazed state of Indiana
and his Platinum Plays in hoops hit around 62 percent.  He also hits above 60 percent in college
football with “Plats”.    Another in the NBA goes tonight

Sports-Handicapper.com gives you the highest rated plays
from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We search
our database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones,
television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip
sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more times than not at a
fraction of the cost. REDUCED PRICES FOR ALL PLAYERS: Today’s full menu is $12,
3 day is $33, a week $75 
and
long term as little as $4.10 per day at
Sports-Handicapper.com. 

Free play: Team Vegas, a top sports service rates their plays from
Category 1 to Category 5.  We pass along
their Cat 5 plays to you.   They have a
Cat 5 tonight on Sacramento UNDER

Covers’ Experts (click here
for today’s menu)
are on a short list of other handicappers that we
respect.

 

Tuesday News and Notes

Tuesday, March 28,
2006

 

Godspicks
is 27-12 with Wise Guy
plays including New Jersey
covering by 40-plus last night. Eight winners go Tuesday including two NIT and
an NBA Wise Guy play.

To those who chose to be on the outside looking in, how
much money have you lost on your own during March Madness?  I don’t want to rub salt in the wound, but
add to that the money you would have won if you were part of yet another
successful Million Dollar March at The Center of the Handicapping Universe Godspicks.com.

It’s never too late to begin the rest of your gambling
life.  The ENTIRE card is
just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Also we now have yearly and other packages
available via
Western
Union
. Every
play, every sport for a year is $2,450. 
Email us at the contact form at Godspicks.com to make arrangements or
for Neteller payments. Updated and advance news and
notes FREE
at JoeDuffy.net—a MUST for March Madness.

NBA

All trends are ATS

·       
Dallas is 6-16 this year off a double digit win

·       
Dallas has gone under 23-6 this year following a
road game

·       
Charlotte has gone over 20-5 after having lost
3-of-4

·       
Seattle is 8-22 this year after scoring 105 or
more points

·       
Memphis has gone under 25-7 this year as a
favorite of 3’-9’ points

·       
Orlando is 7-23 against the Central Division the
last two years

Tuesday Godspicks

Keep our information free by supporting the JoeDuffy.net
store
or by using one of our APPROVED sportsbooks,
casinos and poker room.
Our store
has added satellite TV and radio to watch
and listen to the games
, sporting goods, sports magazines and more. We’ve compiled a perfect
combination of sportsbooks
for your line shopping including sharp and slower lines, low juice, free ½
points and more. Most importantly, all
have been vetted and approved. Also
remember the objective rundown of
who is hot and who has the big plays
among the nation’s elite sports
services is DAILY on the Handicappers
Sampler.

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Last night we improved to 27-12 our last 39 Wise Guy plays
when underdog New Jersey won
outright by 38 points. We have Wise Guy plays on both NIT sides and we have an
NIT Total. We also have an NBA Wise Guy and four NBA Majors.  That’s eight gifts for Tuesday in all
including us going to 30-12 with Wise Guy plays. 

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Also we now have yearly and other packages
available via
Western
Union
. Every
play, every sport for a year is $2,450. 
Email us at the contact form at Godspicks.com to make arrangements or
for Neteller payments. Updated and advance news and
notes FREE
at JoeDuffy.net—a MUST for March Madness.

NBA

PHOENIX -6’ Milwaukee

True the system is even stronger if the loss was as a road
dog, but it still applies as a road favorite.

A five point or more road favorite of a SU loss as on the
road is more than a 60 percent play since 1983. For a team to be more than a
five-point road favorite, you are almost always talking about a superior team
against a greatly inferior. 

Also even though Phoenix
was a favorite to NJ, the principle behind the system still applies, so we will
look outside the box.

For that superior team to have been a dog the previous
game, they likely were playing another top-notch team.  So it says that a superior team loses to
another superior team and takes out their frustrations on the inferior team. Even
though Phoenix was the chalk at NJ,
as we said the premise still applies.