OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

The 133^rd running of the Preakness Stakes goes at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday, as Big Brown tries to add the second jewel of the Triple Crown to his growing list of accomplishments.

Big Brown dominated at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, easily winning the Kentucky Derby by 4 ¾ lengths. The Derby victory maintained Big Brown’s perfect record, which now sits at 4-0. Big Brown will break from the seventh post at the Preakness, which has held five wins in the past 19 years.  It will be a shocker if Big Brown doesn’t make it 5-0 at Pimlico on Saturday, especially as a huge ½ race favorite.

Big Brown won the Derby so easily that only one other horse that raced at Churchill Downs will also be racing at Pimlico on Saturday. That lone horse is Gayego, who didn’t even challenge in the Derby, finishing well back in 17^th place out of 20 horses. This will be the first time since 1980 that only two horses from the Derby will compete in the Preakness. The two returnees in 1980 were Codex and Derby winner Genuine Risk, with Codex winning in an upset.

Before Gayego became a late Preakness addition, the No. 1 challenger to Big Brown appeared to be Behindatthebar, who was listed at 10/1. Things quickly changed on Friday after Behindatthebar became a late scratch from the race due to a bruised front left foot. This was the second horse to bow out after Recapturetheglory was force to withdraw due to a fever.

With Behindatthebar out, the odds quickly rise after the top two with a pair of horses - Kentucky Bear and Yankee Bravo - both listed at 15/1. Kentucky Bear doesn’t have a Stakes race win under his belt this season, which makes him unlikely to win his first at the Preakness. Yankee Bravo won the California Derby earlier this year, but followed that up with a fourth place in the Santa Anita Derby and a third place in the Louisiana Derby. Yankee Bravo may not have the speed to keep up with Big Brown and the rest of the race leaders.

The nation’s top sports handicapper Joe Duffy of GodsTips has the top four finishers in order at OffshoreInsiders.com

Among the rest of the field, the strongest horse with a chance to upset Big Brown looks to be Hey Byrn at 20/1. Hey Byrn has raced against Big Brown once this season in the Florida Derby where he finished in fourth place, while Big Brown went on to the winner’s circle. However, Hey Byrn did win the Holy Bull Stakes last month, which is run at the same distance as the Preakness.

Pimlico Race Course – Preakness Stakes Odds

Big Brown ½
Gayego 8/1
Behindatthebar - Scratched
Kentucky Bear 15/1
Yankee Bravo 15/1
Hey Byrn 20/1
Macho Again 20/1
Giant Moon 30/1
Icabad Crane 30/1
Racecar Rhapsody 30/1
Riley Tucker 30/1
Stevil 30/1
Tres Borrachos 30

In addition to the traditional horse racing odds for Saturday’s 2008 Preakness Stakes, the world’s top sportsbooks have interesting proposition odds. For example which will be greater, the margin of victory for Big Brown or the number of assists Kobe Bryant gets in Game 6 against the Utah Jazz?

How about Big Brown’s margin of victory or the number of goals in the FA Cup Final in England? Cardiff City takes on Portsmouth in the 127^th final. One can also bet if this year’s crowd breaks last year’s record or if the winner does so in record time.

There are also the individual match-ups. Handicappers can predict who will be the higher finisher Icabad Crane or Yankee Bravo, Gayego or Giant Moon, Riley Tucker is paired against Tres Borrochos.

In one of the more intriguing possibilities, one of the sportsbooks asks if all the NBC announcers will pick Big Brown to win.

Much like gamblers can bet quarter and halftime lines in basketball and football, horse racing bettors are asked where Big Brown will be a the quarter poll. Sixth or below pays an incredible +1400.

It’s time to take a look at some of the latest betting odds on key sports, entertainment and world events. Big Brown, Barack Obama, and now David Cook are all favorites in the diverse world culture betting markets.

BetUs Sportsbook has made Big Brown the overwhelming favorite to win the Preakness Stakes as well as a good shot to capture the Triple Crown. These overwhelming odds are despite his reputation of a Barry Sanders like feast or famine performance.

Brown not only is 1/3 to win at Pimlico, but is now expected to win the Triple Crown at 1/2 The nation’s top sports betting expert Joe Duffy says history and the unpredictable running of Brown, make “no” at 3/2 a great betting proposition.

Once known as the “other David,” David Cook has leapfrogged David Archuleta as the favorite to win American Idol. Cook is now 2/4, Archuleta has dropped to the No. 2 spot at 7/5. Syesha Mercado is given little respect by the sportsbooks at 20/1.

Meanwhile the top sports handicapping site has two of the top three key indicators as to who the next President of the United States will be on the same page. The Vegas odds for President now have Barack Obama as the favorite at 4/5, while John McCain at 7/5.

Intrade projects Obama a 55.8 percent chance to win the White House, compared to just 38.2 for McCain.

The third of the top three indicators is the RealClearPolitics consensus poll, which gives Obama an edge over McCain by 2.6 percentage points.

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Hillary Clinton is heavily favorite to win the Indiana Democratic Primary. According to the Vegas political betting odds, or more accurately the offshore odds, Clinton is -600, while Barack Obama is +350.

When betting on elections, Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy says he always compares the betting odds to the consensus polls at RealClearPolitics.com. The RCP average has Clinton +5.0 percentage points, though Zogby Tracking has Obama up by two points.

This is a clear, well Real Clear, change from about a week ago when Obama held the three-point lead.

Clinton has been aided by his slow initial condemnation of the racist and anti-American rants of Obama’s former pastor Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

Obama is still expected to get the nomination as he is a prohibitive 4/13 favorite to be the Democratic candidate for the White House. Clinton is given a punchers chance at 4/1.

The General Election odds are tightening up. Arizona Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee actually barely trails Obama. McCain is 5/4 compared to Obama at 6/5. Clinton is still given a chance at 4/1, oddly (so to speak) the same as her chances of being the nominee.

There were statements made by politicos recently that had serious direct ramifications to the gambling rights community. One avowal was made by the current President of the United States, George W. Bush. The other assertion was by one of the final three contenders for the White House, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In his State of the Union, President Bush claimed, “The people’s trust in their government is undermined by congressional earmarks—special interest projects that are often snuck in at the last minute, without discussion or debate. Last year, I asked you to voluntarily cut the number and cost of earmarks in half. I also asked you to stop slipping earmarks into committee reports that never even come to a vote. Unfortunately, neither goal was met. So this time, if you send me an appropriations bill that does not cut the number and cost of earmarks in half, I’ll send it back to you with my veto,” said Bush to applause from both sides of the aisle.

The “To Bet a Man Square Massacre” was a result of the so-called Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, a pork barrel favor to conservative traitor Bill “Jesus” Frist attached to the completely unrelated Security and Accountability For Every Port Act of 2006.

Knowing that respecting the democratic process would mean defeat, Frist was able to circumvent debate and discussion by waiting until midnight on the final night before Congress adjourned for the 2006 elections.

Could there possibly be a better (if not bettor) example of as Bush said “special interest projects that are often snuck in at the last minute, without discussion or debate”? What the President failed to mention is he signed the bill.

More recently, Democratic President hopeful Hillary Clinton sat down with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News in what appeared to be more of a courtship between forbidden lovers than a no-spin interview.

In response to how she would control spiraling oil prices, Clinton answered, “Nine of the 13 biggest oil-producing countries that are in OPEC are also members of the WTO. I would file complaints.”

The direct implication that statement has on online gambling is that the United States deemed the World Trade Organization irrelevant when the international body rightfully ruled that the US unfairly targeted offshore websites by passing the anti-gambling rights act while making an exemption for US firms that offer off-track betting on horse racing.

In his two-part love fest with Clinton, O’Reilly opted to follow up with scripted softballs instead of challenging Clinton’s courting of the WTO.

Would it not make imperative that Clinton insist we honor the WTO rulings against America before appealing to them for assistance against OPEC? Why should OPEC respect a ruling against them anymore than the US has?

O’Quixote opted not to derail his dalliance with Clinton. He sidestepped asking her what say she about the obvious conundrum. Get a room you two.

Frankly the chances of a potential President Clinton making good to the WTO is about the same as Bush refusing to sign Frist’s earmarks.

If politicians on either side of the aisle actually practiced what come out of their big mouths, the right to gamble would never have been infringed on to begin with.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as one of the all-time great sports handicappers of all-time.

Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies will be looking to knock Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants for a loss on Sunday afternoon. Here’s your MLB Gameday for sports handicappers:

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:07pm ET
Jose Contreras (2-2, 3.98 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (2-4, 3.26 ERA)

Contreras hasn’t been striking out a lot of batters so far this season (just 16 over his first five starts), but he’s been a pretty solid pitcher for the White Sox. The righthander gave up four earned runs in each of his first two outings versus the Tigers, another four earned runs versus the Yankees on April 22, and he’s held the Orioles to one run twice.

Halladay has been tagged with a loss in each of his past three starts, although he did manage to go the distance in each of those contests. In fact, the righthander has tossed four straight complete games with only a 1-3 record to show for those outings. Halladay has walked just seven batters while striking out 31 over his six starts so far this season.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, 1:35pm ET
Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA)

Lincecum is helping Giants fans forget about the struggles of Barry Zito. The young righthander has gone 4-1 with a no-decision in his six starts this season, and he’s managed to keep his ERA under 2.00. Lincecum’s worst outing of the year came on Tuesday versus the Rockies, but he gave up just three earned runs over seven innings.

Hamels bounced back from a couple of rough outings to pitch a strong game against the Padres last time out (7 1-3 innings, two earned runs on five hits, six strikeouts). The lefthander gave up just two earned runs over his first three starts of the year, but he then surrendered nine earned runs over consecutive losses to the Mets and Brewers.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, 3:05pm ET
Derek Lowe (2-1, 2.88 ERA) vs. Aaron Cook (4-1, 2.41 ERA)

Lowe gave up six runs in a no-decision versus the Marlins last time out, but only three of those runs were earned. That kept the righthander’s ERA under 3.00 for the season. Lowe has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his six starts so far in 2008, but he’s only managed to pick up two wins for his troubles, with one defeat and three NDs.

Cook has been on fire for the Rockies, as he’s earned the victory in each of his last four outings. The righthander surrendered just six earned runs over 28 innings in those starts to drop his ERA below 2.50 in 2008. Cook held the Giants to just two unearned runs on Tuesday, giving up 10 hits and two walks and fanning three over seven innings. Handicapper Stevie Vincent has this game among six pro baseball winners. Click now to purchase

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10pm ET
Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (4-1, 3.13 ERA)

Santana could only manage a no-decision in his start versus the Pirates on Tuesday, but he allowed just two earned runs on two hits over 5 2-3 innings of work and struck out seven batters. The lefthander has allowed more than three earned runs in only one start so far this season (on April 12 versus the Brewers), and he’s struck out 39 batters.

Haren has also allowed more than three earned runs in only one start this year - that came on April 23 when the Dodgers got to him for five earned runs over 4 2-3 innings. The righthander has picked up either a win or a no-decision in each of his other five outings, and he only walked seven batters (while striking out 29) in his six starts in April.

Though most American Idol watchers in our unscientific survey agree that the American Idol winner will be “one of the two Davids,” a popular prediction site suggests that long shot Syesho Mercado may beat the betting odds.

DialIdol.com’s often accurate software indicates that Syesha Mercado at 50/1 is gaining momentum and could stun co-favorites David Archuleta and David Cook, both who are now 20/21. The other finalist, Jason Castro checks in at 25/1.

Another popular reality show has sports handicappers intrigued. ABC’s Dancing With the Stars has narrowed down the field and like American Idol, the initial favorite is holding strong. Kristi Yamaguchi is still the overwhelming choice according to the sportsbooks at 4/11.

Former Miami Dolphin Jason Taylor is 2/1, Mario is 10/1 (no word on Luigi) while the long shots are Cristian de la Fuente and Marissa Jaret Winokur at 40/1.

NewBodog offers odds on whether George Clooney will reprise his role in the 15^th season of ‘ER’. No is -130 with yes at -110.

The betting line is also heating up for Hell’s Kitchen as Christina remains the choice at 5/6. Louross at 4/1 and Jen at 7/1 are place and show favorites.

More odds are posted at OffshoreInsiders.com

It’s without question one of the great days of the year for sports bettors and sports handicappers. The San Antonio Spurs open up the Western Conference NBA Finals against the New Orleans Hornets, while in the Eastern Conference, the not-exactly-Eastern Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic.

The ‘Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sport’ arrives on Saturday with the 134^th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. According to sports betting expert Joe Duffy, the only Grandmaster sports handicapper in the world, “It’s the most profitable two minutes in sports.” He says the chalk won’t win today and he has the win, place and show at GodsTips on OffshoreInsiders.com

Out of the 20-horse field entered in the Derby, Big Brown has been singled out as the favorite at 3/1. Trained by Richard Dutrow Jr. and ridden by two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown has gone undefeated as a three-year-old with three victories which includes an impressive win in the Florida Derby. However, if Big Brown does win he’ll have to go against history to do it. Big Brown was unlucky in the post draw and drew the outside No. 20 post. In the Derby’s lengthy history, only one horse has won out of the No. 20 post in 15 attempts. That lone winner was Clyde Van Dusen way back in 1929.

Big Brown’s bad luck in the post draw could provide an opening for Colonel John or Pyro to pull off an upset. Colonel John follows Big Brown on the odds list at 4/1. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby early last month, but the Derby will be the first race he has ever run on a dirt track. All of Colonel John’s previous races were run on synthetic tracks, which could put him at a disadvantage in poor conditions. Pyro was considered to be a perennial favorite after winning his first two races of the season, but a disappointing 10^th-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes has lowered his stock a little. Even with the questions after his Blue Grass finish, Pyro is still listed at 6/1 in the Derby.

There are a number of other interesting stories scattered throughout the rest of the field of 20, including Eight Belles. Listed at 20/1, Eight Belles is the first filly entered in the Derby since 1999 when Excellent Meeting finished fifth and Three Rings was 19^th.

Trainer Barclay Tagg, who trained 2003 Derby champion Funny Cide, pins his hopes for a return to the winner’s circle on Tale of Ekati. The 15/1 underdog won the Wood Memorial earlier this season to make him an interesting dark horse on Saturday. Tagg also has Big Truck in the Derby, but he’s already been written off after receiving the worst odds in the field at 50/1.

Trainer Todd Pletcher failed to snap his long Derby drought last year and he’ll try again with a pair of horses this year. At 0-for-19 in the Derby, Pletcher’s best chance at breaking that streak appears to be Monba, who won the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this year and enters the Derby at 15/1. Pletcher’s other entry is Cowboy Cal at 20/1.

Two other horses listed at 20/1 which are noteworthy include Visionaire and Denis of Cork. Visionaire is this year’s entry for trainer Michael Matz, who trained 2006 winner Barbaro. Oddly enough, Visionaire drew the eighth post, the same position Barbaro started from the year he won. Denis of Cork will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode Street Sense to victory in last year’s Derby. The last jockey to win the Derby in back-to-back years was Ed Delahoussaye on Gato Del Sol in 1982 and on Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

Odds to win Kentucky Derby (updated live)

Big Brown 3/1
Colonel John 4/1
Pyro 6/1
Gayego 15/1
Monba 15/1
Tale of Ekati 15/1
Z Fortune 15/1
Bob Black Jack 20/1
Cool Coal Man 20/1
Court Vision 20/1
Cowboy Cal 20/1
Denis of Cork 20/1
Eight Belles 20/1
Recapturetheglory 20/1
Smooth Air 20/1
Visionaire 20/1
Adriano 30/1
Anak Nakal 30/1
Z Humor 30/1
Big Truck 50/1

Other key betting odds see that for the first time the American Idol Las Vegas odds say that David Archuleta is more likely to not win American Idol by -130 then to win at -110. Also thanks to the racist, anti-American rants of his pastor Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama is no longer considered a lock for the Democratic nomination for the President of the United States betting line. Hillary Clinton is within striking distance at 5/2.

However, Obama is still in a dead heat with John McCain in the POTUS odds at 8/7.