May 20, 2009

It's a Sure Bet How Republicans Can Win Back Their Base

The Republican Party’s self-induced mad dash for irrelevancy is headlined by their reckless disregard for the Golden Rule of winning elections: first solidify the base.

The Party of Lincoln’s negligence commenced with George W. Bush’s “compassionate conservatism”. Conservatives preach tough love, but Bush distorted the “compassionate conservatism” redundancy into an oxymoron by defining “compassion” using the glossary of Jimmy Carter.

With the aid of a Republican Congress, Bush benevolently spent like a drunken Kennedy. His renunciation of conservative principals of conscientious expenditure failed miserably not only in courting the left hell-bent on destroying him, but disenfranchised conservatives of every ilk.

But Bush and the Republicans’ implosion was just in its infancy.

Speaking of aliens, the President from the once law-and-order party adopted a do-nothing course of action when it came to preventing illegal aliens from journeying across the Rio Grande. If only crossing a Manhattan intersection could be done with such ease.

A new low point was achieved in the Terri Shiavo circus. Once a “family values” party, religious insurgents demanded that the excruciating life and death decision involving the brain-damaged comatose women should be decided not by her next-of-kin, but by a bunch of empty suits inside the Beltway.

While the Reaganites allowed Christian jihads to seize occupancy of the conservative movement, the rest of the party distanced themselves by nominating John McCain for President, the most center-left entrant in modern Republican history.

Lagging miserably in the polls, McCain skyrocketed once he threw a bone to traditional conservatives and chose Sarah Palin as his running mate. While her gaffes made her easy fodder for the left-leaning “if you can’t beat them, destroy them” media, it was centrist McCain who permitted Barack Obama to achieve the impossible.

Liberal Barack Obama successfully courted abandoned Reagan conservatives by convincing them that he would cut taxes for middle-class Americans more than McCain would.

But Barney Frank has pulled the granddaddy of them all in dismembering the disremembered conservative movement. Somehow, someway, the unapologetic left-winger has positioned himself to the right of most Republicans on gambling civil liberties.

Personal responsibility and creating new streams of tax revenue was once etched-in-stone bare essentials of the Republican Party and remains basic principles in the non-religious nutter dieing wing of conservatism.

Fully legalizing the legitimate pastime of online gambling, while relishing in the cash flow that would funnel into the economy, should be embraced by the Republicans.

Yet so-called Republicans such as John Kyl and Bill Frist have declared mutiny on traditional conservatism and hijacked it to the point where estranged Reaganites acknowledge that Barney Frank represents their constituency much more than the derelict traitors who deceitfully call themselves Republicans.

Republicans are oblivious to how they alienated their base with spendorama “compassion”, a see-no-evil approach to illegal immigration, and allowing a left-wing presidential candidate to abduct their lower-taxes mantra.

By voting for full legalization of online gambling, they have an opportunity to return to their pro-business, anti-government intrusion roots. But consistent with their political death wish recent history, Republicans have allowed a progressive Congressman from Massachusetts to shanghai and pirate what should be a conservative calling card.

Ronald Reagan once said that that he didn’t leave the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left him. Now posthumously, the Republican Party has done the same.

Barney Frank is now the knight in shining armor to dyed-in-the-wool conservatives. Republican enablers have assured this Armageddon lasts well beyond the next mid-terms.

Supporting online gambling could be the Republicans last chance to court back conservatives. Here’s betting they instead choose to subvert themselves further into irrelevancy.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the most respected sports betting site on American sports.

April 20, 2009

AccuScore Picks

We’ve been asked about Accuscore simulations. They are a big part of the Top Computer plays on the MasterLockLine, which is more than just the top sports service picks. Most importantly in beating the MLB betting line

It helps us balance out other computer and power ratings in making the best sports picks” says Cy McCormick who heads the power of 620 sports services behind every selection. The Top Computer Plays have especially been dominant in football betting picks domination.

March 31, 2009

MLB Handicappers

The 2009 MLB season is here and the best baseball handicappers are at the premier betting site OffshoreInsiders.com

The founder of forensic sports handicapping, Stevie Vincent is without any debate the king of the over/under in all sports, MLB betting included. Professional gamblers the world over consider his baseball totals bets must-reads.

Long time gamblers remember Joe Duffy as “JD of the ACC” when he became the top scorephone handicapper to ever live. When the telephone scoreboards became a dinosaur, Duffy made the transition and teamed with established Internet gambling pioneer Mike Godsey to form GodTips.

GodsTips is the king of the underdog and the small favorite in mastering the MLB odds, exactly as sharp bettors remember from the scorephone days. Duffy is also founder of the top sports betting blog.

All the top MLB sports service plays are part of the power of 620 sports services behind every selection at MasterLockLine. This consensus sports service has all the top sports service plays from all the top handicappers in their highest rated sports. They monitor every single top sports service pick so you don’t have to. Best of all you get these same highly anticipated plays for pennies on the dollar.

Of course ScoresOddsPicks.com has baseball scores and odds and the best free betting databases.

The combination of OffshoreInsiders.com baseball handicappers and reliable sportsbooks will mean gamblers no longer have to wait on the NFL betting odds to rake in the money.

March 17, 2009

NIT Brackets 2009: First Round Betting Previews

The NIT brackets are out and OffshoreInsiders.com presents betting previews for the NIT Tournament. The college basketball odds are updated live. All records are against the spread unless spread records are specified.

Davidson-South Carolina

The Wildcats are 54-20-3 off ATS loss and a very impressive 42-18 on the road versus teams with home winning percentage of .600 or better. They enter though on a 1-6-1 overall skid.

The Gamecocks are 8-20 at home versus an opponent with a winning road record. They are 6-0 off a double digit home loss.

Rhode Island-Niagara

The Rams are 13-4 in nonconference games, while the Purple Eagles are 38-17 under the same circumstances.

Morehead State-Alabama State

This is of course the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Eagles of Morehead are 16-5 against teams with a winning record but yet 5-25-4 in nonconference action. Alabama State enters on a 6-1 streak.

George Mason-Penn State

The Patriots are 1-6 overall their last seven. The Nittany Lions are 9-3 off an straight up loss.

Northeastern-Wyoming

The Cowboys have covered 8-of-10 at home.

UAB-Notre Dame

Notre Dame is 3-11 against teams with a winning record.

UNLV-Kentucky

UNLV 8-1 off double digit home loss but are on an 0-6 skid entering the NIT.

Weber State-San Diego State

Weber State is 8-0 road versus teams with a winning home record and they are 7-0 off a ATS loss.

Nebraska-New Mexico

The Cornhuskers are 12-26 on the road.

UTEP-Nevada

UTEP is 9-2 in the WAC. Nevada is 8-20 opponent winning percentage of .600 or greater. The Wolf Pack are 3-13 at home versus opponent with a losing road record.

Washington State-St. Mary’s

The Gaels are 7-2 off an ATS loss. All the winning March Madness picks and predictions against the spread for the 2009 NIT Tournament, CBI, and College Insider Tournament will be at OffshoreInsiders.com

2009 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews For Thursday

The world’s top March Madness picks and predictions site OffshoreInsiders.com presents a look at the 2009 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament from the standpoint of beating the bookmakers.

All quoted records are against the spread unless over/under records are specified. For the latest Big Dance Vegas odds and betting line check out the college basketball odds.

Radford-North Carolina

North Carolina is 26-6 off an straight up loss and 40-18 in nonconference games. They are 0-7 against teams with a winning record.

USC-Boston College

USC is 5-0 overall. Boston College is 22-8 on neutral courts and they’ve covered five straight NCAA Tournament games.

Butler-LSU

Butler is 37-15 in nonconference games. The Tigers are 5-0 off a double digit home loss, but 1-7 on neutral courts.

Michigan-Clemson

Michigan is 3-7 their last 10 on neutral courts.

Morgan State-Oklahoma

Morgan State is 3-9 nonconference games. Oklahoma is 0-5 against teams with a winning record.

Akron-Gonzaga

Gonzaga is 2-6 in the NCAA Tournament.

Western Kentucky-Illinois

The Hilltoppers are 16-5 on neutral courts and 40-17 their last 57 nonconference games according to the sportsbooks. Illinois

Binghamton-Duke

The Blue Devils have dropped four straight Big Dance games.

Minnesota-Texas

The Golden Gophers come in on a 4-11 slump. Texas is 3-7 against teams with a winning record.

Cal State Northridge-Memphis

Memphis is 11-2 their last 13 against teams with a winning record. The Matadors are 7-2 off straight up win.

Maryland-California

California 1-5 overall run.

Mississippi State-Washington

Mississippi State is 6-0 overall. Washington is 7-0 off a loss.

Northern Iowa-Purdue

Northern Iowa is 7-2 to the Big 10 yet 2-10 their last 12 nonconference overall. Purdue is 0-6 to the Missouri Valley.

Texas A&M-BYU

Texas A&M is 10-1 off a ATS loss and 46-22 opponent winning percentage of .600 or greater. BYU 1-6 off ATS loss.

Chattanooga-Connecticut

Connecticut has dropped seven straight NCAA Tournament games.

Robert Morris-Michigan State

The Spartans are 9-0 off straight up loss.

For March Madness 2009 picks, predictions and spread winners, it’s always OffshoreInsiders.com

March 06, 2009

Sports Bettor Alan Boston

We have gotten some questions about a professional gambler named Alan Boston and consulted the top hound of winning sports picks, Cy McCormick head of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine.com

McCormick says, “He is among the top 15-20 college basketball experts in the country.” Though Alan Boston is best known as a poker player, “in recent years he has narrowed the gap between himself and long-term college basketball betting gurus Joe Duffy of GodsTips, Bill Tanner, and Castlegate Sports.”

Get all the picks worth betting at OffshoreInsiders.com and use the databases of the pros at ScoresOddsPicks.com

Betting On March Madness: NCAA Tournament Myths

For the last several years we’ve touted Pete Tiernan’s Bracket Science as a valuable tool in Big Dance handicapping. While the science is oriented towards forecasting the March Madness bracket pool, there are sundry sports handicapping applications.

In fact, as our diverse range of regular clients have seen us assert in our analysis—the dichotomous ATS and straight up game as an example—handicapping is in large part the art of isolating overvalued and undervalued teams.

The voluminous articles on Bracket Science are centered on isolating characteristics of underachieving and overachieving teams in the NCAA Tournament.

If there is a downside to this mechanism, the findings are more corroborating my own experiences as a handicapper than enlightening me on new angles. Rest assured that a large component of my success in the industry since the 1980s is that I am quite swayable and have made many adjustments, often debunking unfound theories of my fledgling early years.

Conversely, those who subscribe to sports betting’s ultimate oxymoron “conventional logic” will have an epiphany upon reading the findings with an open mind.

Possibly topping the lists of urban legends perpetuated by hacks, talking heads, and bottom-rung handicappers alike is the pure poppycock about betting on guard oriented teams.

As stated numerous times, a team’s strength is a commodity and the less prevalent the commodity, the more value the resource is.

In a rare illustration in which “conventional logic” is factually based, most baseball fans understand that possessing a shortstop who can hit 35 runs and knock in 100 is more valuable than a first baseball who can do the same. A power hitting middle infielder is a scarcity—a rare commodity.

But the same gospel truth is abandoned elsewhere in sports. For example in the NBA playoffs, it’s a statistical truism that scoring decreases in the NBA playoffs as defensively intensity increases.

Yet “conventional logic” has Joeybagofdonuts victimized into believing that somehow when scoring goes down defensive becomes more paramount. False, a quick study proves that teams most adept at scoring consistently in the half-court are beyond reproach the most victorious in postseason NBA.

The same parallel universe applies to college basketball. There are significantly more quality backcourts than frontcourts. Most teams that fail to make the NCAA, flop in the first-round, or do not even quality for the NIT are guard oriented.

Drinking the Kool-Aid, those who perpetuate the alternate reality conclude that the preponderance of high caliber guard play and the dearth of dominant big men makes the more prevalent guard oriented teams the more cherished commodity. Basketball’s equivalent of the power hitting first baseman has become more indispensable than the shortstop who can bat cleanup.

Poppycock, balderdash; it’s a pure betting urban legend.

The goal here is neither to bootleg Tiernan’s research nor write an advertorial on his behalf, but one would be advised to consult his work for his precise and standardized metrics for defining over and underachieving.

His research concluded that since 1991, NCAA Tournament teams get 52 percent of their points from guards. He also defines the last 24 years as the modern era and divides them into three eight-year periods. Of zero surprise to us, but a revelation to countless, Tiernan concludes, “In each eight-year period of the modern era, the most frontcourt-dominant teams have overachieved,” and continuing, “The most guard-dominant squads have never been overperformers in any eight-year period of the 64-team era.” “Never” he said, no way, no how.

Using statistically overwhelming numbers to document his conclusions he again corroborates what we’ve preached for decades, “if you look at the average percentage of points that tourney advancers have gotten from guards in each eight-year period of the modern era, you’ll find that deeper advancers tend to be more frontcourt-oriented squads.”

Judge for yourself as the $20 he charges for his research is pocket change for the bettor and we be paid back ten-fold if utilized correctly.

Debunking the guard-play myth is just one of my long-preached theories that have earned me the title of “Mr. March” and “Lord of the Dance” that are validated by his 24-year study.

Because I am seamlessly converting his brainpower into spread betting applications, the devil’s advocate could argue yours truly is making some leaps of faith. I’d welcome counterpoints, but among the other theorems authenticated not only by my quarter century of unprecedented winnings, but also by Tiernan’s scholarly research are:

·        Straight up winning percentage is greatly overplayed in handicapping. Scoring margin is the leading indictor

·        Bench play is extremely overvalued in Big Dance handicapping. Note that the study is purely about the NCAA Tournament. We assert that a deep bench is of great importance in the conference tournaments but overrated in the Big Dance

·        Age and experience is also overrated. “With each two-round advancement in the tourney, teams get increasingly younger,” the study says.

 

The sportsbooks thrive because “conventional logic” is too often a misnomer for “folklore” in sports betting. Those who let facts guide their conclusions will continue to prosper.

The author Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. The above research is only a scintilla of the data “Mr. March” exploits en route to being the winningest all-time sports handicapper.

March 05, 2009

Best March Madness Comebacks Against the Spread

With the whole world watching, March Madness betting produces moments that live on forever in sports lore, Among those moments are amazing comebacks – improbable rallies that have people saying “Oh my God, did you see the game?” around the water cooler the next day. Let’s check out some of the most memorable comebacks in March Madness betting history.

WHEN: 2007 South regional matchup

WHO: Ohio State over Xavier

HOW: In one of the wildest March Madness betting comebacks in recent memory, favorite Ohio State trailed by 11 points with just over seven minutes to play. But the Buckeyes fought all the way back and tied the game with Ron Lewis’ buzzer-beating three-pointer before edging Xavier 78-71 in overtime.

WHEN: 1989 Southeast Regional matchup

WHO: South Alabama over Alabama

HOW: Imagine how much you’d have won if you took a halftime sportsbook line on South Alabama, who trailed by 16 points? They fought all the way back and won 86-84 thanks to a three-point dagger by Jeff Hodge with five seconds remaining.

WHEN: 1983 Championship final

WHO: North Carolina State over Houston

HOW: How often do online betting fans see a favorite blow a six-point lead with three minutes to go? It happened in 1983, when NC State stole the championship from Houston with an improbable comeback capped by a wild Dereck Whittenberg shot that was caught and converted into an alley oop by Lorenzo Charles. NC State 54, Houston 52.

February 28, 2009

March Madness 2009 Betting Prediction: Best Ever Year For Sharps, Worst For Squares

The 2008-09 football season produced the widest gap ever between the sharp player and square player in sports betting history. All key indicators are that the Information Age will likely produce the same disparity in 2009 March Madness betting. However, it’s never been easier to choose to be on the elite side.

As previously discussed, the schism between those who win in sports betting and those who lose has never been wider. The quality of accurate information is widely available to the sportsbooks and gambler alike.

Most point spread players do not have the time or resources to exploit such Intel. The always improving and innovating OffshoreInsiders Network has streamlined and modernized everything a sharp gambler needs.

ScoresOddsPicks.com has the up-to-the minute scores and odds including game spread in college basketball and the betting line to win the 2009 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Also the same databases that the pro bettors use in their pregame picks are available directly off the home page.

Lines-Maker.com will have the exclusive news and notes that the world’s top handicappers use directly from their clipboards.

The best free picks for both the conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament, not to mention the NIT, continue to thrive at OffshoreInsiders.com

The sports betting blog JoeDuffy.net has the betting advice articles from the world’s premier experts, many on NCAA basketball Big Dance betting.

The newest entrant to the powerful nexus is BetOnSports360.com. This has the best “ezine” articles and many more will be added focusing on March Madness and Big Dance against the spread betting strategy.

Stevie Vincent, GM of the OffshoreInsiders Network says, “Gamblers can opt to be winners or they can opt to keep the sportsbooks open for those of us who are. It’s simply a matter of making the right choice.”

February 24, 2009

SportsCrew

We are not sure what has happened to Sports Crew. We know the so called To Bet a Man Massacre has hurt a lot of sites such as SportsCrew, but the SportsCrew forum was at one time one of the most active.

I had some contacts there but the information has expired. Let me know if you have any details. Meanwhile check out the new and improved ScoresOddsPicks.com to help fill the void.