OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

It’s time to take a look at some of the latest betting odds on key sports, entertainment and world events. Big Brown, Barack Obama, and now David Cook are all favorites in the diverse world culture betting markets.

BetUs Sportsbook has made Big Brown the overwhelming favorite to win the Preakness Stakes as well as a good shot to capture the Triple Crown. These overwhelming odds are despite his reputation of a Barry Sanders like feast or famine performance.

Brown not only is 1/3 to win at Pimlico, but is now expected to win the Triple Crown at 1/2 The nation’s top sports betting expert Joe Duffy says history and the unpredictable running of Brown, make “no” at 3/2 a great betting proposition.

Once known as the “other David,” David Cook has leapfrogged David Archuleta as the favorite to win American Idol. Cook is now 2/4, Archuleta has dropped to the No. 2 spot at 7/5. Syesha Mercado is given little respect by the sportsbooks at 20/1.

Meanwhile the top sports handicapping site has two of the top three key indicators as to who the next President of the United States will be on the same page. The Vegas odds for President now have Barack Obama as the favorite at 4/5, while John McCain at 7/5.

Intrade projects Obama a 55.8 percent chance to win the White House, compared to just 38.2 for McCain.

The third of the top three indicators is the RealClearPolitics consensus poll, which gives Obama an edge over McCain by 2.6 percentage points.

The top sports betting site OffshoreInsiders.com has announced they are giving away free sports picks to the best sports services in the world. “Many of our long-term clients go their picks from us the first time via our partnership with sportsbooks” admits CEO Joe Duffy.

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Hillary Clinton is heavily favorite to win the Indiana Democratic Primary. According to the Vegas political betting odds, or more accurately the offshore odds, Clinton is -600, while Barack Obama is +350.

When betting on elections, Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy says he always compares the betting odds to the consensus polls at RealClearPolitics.com. The RCP average has Clinton +5.0 percentage points, though Zogby Tracking has Obama up by two points.

This is a clear, well Real Clear, change from about a week ago when Obama held the three-point lead.

Clinton has been aided by his slow initial condemnation of the racist and anti-American rants of Obama’s former pastor Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

Obama is still expected to get the nomination as he is a prohibitive 4/13 favorite to be the Democratic candidate for the White House. Clinton is given a punchers chance at 4/1.

The General Election odds are tightening up. Arizona Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee actually barely trails Obama. McCain is 5/4 compared to Obama at 6/5. Clinton is still given a chance at 4/1, oddly (so to speak) the same as her chances of being the nominee.

There were statements made by politicos recently that had serious direct ramifications to the gambling rights community. One avowal was made by the current President of the United States, George W. Bush. The other assertion was by one of the final three contenders for the White House, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In his State of the Union, President Bush claimed, “The people’s trust in their government is undermined by congressional earmarks—special interest projects that are often snuck in at the last minute, without discussion or debate. Last year, I asked you to voluntarily cut the number and cost of earmarks in half. I also asked you to stop slipping earmarks into committee reports that never even come to a vote. Unfortunately, neither goal was met. So this time, if you send me an appropriations bill that does not cut the number and cost of earmarks in half, I’ll send it back to you with my veto,” said Bush to applause from both sides of the aisle.

The “To Bet a Man Square Massacre” was a result of the so-called Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, a pork barrel favor to conservative traitor Bill “Jesus” Frist attached to the completely unrelated Security and Accountability For Every Port Act of 2006.

Knowing that respecting the democratic process would mean defeat, Frist was able to circumvent debate and discussion by waiting until midnight on the final night before Congress adjourned for the 2006 elections.

Could there possibly be a better (if not bettor) example of as Bush said “special interest projects that are often snuck in at the last minute, without discussion or debate”? What the President failed to mention is he signed the bill.

More recently, Democratic President hopeful Hillary Clinton sat down with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News in what appeared to be more of a courtship between forbidden lovers than a no-spin interview.

In response to how she would control spiraling oil prices, Clinton answered, “Nine of the 13 biggest oil-producing countries that are in OPEC are also members of the WTO. I would file complaints.”

The direct implication that statement has on online gambling is that the United States deemed the World Trade Organization irrelevant when the international body rightfully ruled that the US unfairly targeted offshore websites by passing the anti-gambling rights act while making an exemption for US firms that offer off-track betting on horse racing.

In his two-part love fest with Clinton, O’Reilly opted to follow up with scripted softballs instead of challenging Clinton’s courting of the WTO.

Would it not make imperative that Clinton insist we honor the WTO rulings against America before appealing to them for assistance against OPEC? Why should OPEC respect a ruling against them anymore than the US has?

O’Quixote opted not to derail his dalliance with Clinton. He sidestepped asking her what say she about the obvious conundrum. Get a room you two.

Frankly the chances of a potential President Clinton making good to the WTO is about the same as Bush refusing to sign Frist’s earmarks.

If politicians on either side of the aisle actually practiced what come out of their big mouths, the right to gamble would never have been infringed on to begin with.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as one of the all-time great sports handicappers of all-time.

Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies will be looking to knock Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants for a loss on Sunday afternoon. Here’s your MLB Gameday for sports handicappers:

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:07pm ET
Jose Contreras (2-2, 3.98 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (2-4, 3.26 ERA)

Contreras hasn’t been striking out a lot of batters so far this season (just 16 over his first five starts), but he’s been a pretty solid pitcher for the White Sox. The righthander gave up four earned runs in each of his first two outings versus the Tigers, another four earned runs versus the Yankees on April 22, and he’s held the Orioles to one run twice.

Halladay has been tagged with a loss in each of his past three starts, although he did manage to go the distance in each of those contests. In fact, the righthander has tossed four straight complete games with only a 1-3 record to show for those outings. Halladay has walked just seven batters while striking out 31 over his six starts so far this season.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, 1:35pm ET
Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA)

Lincecum is helping Giants fans forget about the struggles of Barry Zito. The young righthander has gone 4-1 with a no-decision in his six starts this season, and he’s managed to keep his ERA under 2.00. Lincecum’s worst outing of the year came on Tuesday versus the Rockies, but he gave up just three earned runs over seven innings.

Hamels bounced back from a couple of rough outings to pitch a strong game against the Padres last time out (7 1-3 innings, two earned runs on five hits, six strikeouts). The lefthander gave up just two earned runs over his first three starts of the year, but he then surrendered nine earned runs over consecutive losses to the Mets and Brewers.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, 3:05pm ET
Derek Lowe (2-1, 2.88 ERA) vs. Aaron Cook (4-1, 2.41 ERA)

Lowe gave up six runs in a no-decision versus the Marlins last time out, but only three of those runs were earned. That kept the righthander’s ERA under 3.00 for the season. Lowe has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his six starts so far in 2008, but he’s only managed to pick up two wins for his troubles, with one defeat and three NDs.

Cook has been on fire for the Rockies, as he’s earned the victory in each of his last four outings. The righthander surrendered just six earned runs over 28 innings in those starts to drop his ERA below 2.50 in 2008. Cook held the Giants to just two unearned runs on Tuesday, giving up 10 hits and two walks and fanning three over seven innings. Handicapper Stevie Vincent has this game among six pro baseball winners. Click now to purchase

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10pm ET
Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (4-1, 3.13 ERA)

Santana could only manage a no-decision in his start versus the Pirates on Tuesday, but he allowed just two earned runs on two hits over 5 2-3 innings of work and struck out seven batters. The lefthander has allowed more than three earned runs in only one start so far this season (on April 12 versus the Brewers), and he’s struck out 39 batters.

Haren has also allowed more than three earned runs in only one start this year - that came on April 23 when the Dodgers got to him for five earned runs over 4 2-3 innings. The righthander has picked up either a win or a no-decision in each of his other five outings, and he only walked seven batters (while striking out 29) in his six starts in April.

Though most American Idol watchers in our unscientific survey agree that the American Idol winner will be “one of the two Davids,” a popular prediction site suggests that long shot Syesho Mercado may beat the betting odds.

DialIdol.com’s often accurate software indicates that Syesha Mercado at 50/1 is gaining momentum and could stun co-favorites David Archuleta and David Cook, both who are now 20/21. The other finalist, Jason Castro checks in at 25/1.

Another popular reality show has sports handicappers intrigued. ABC’s Dancing With the Stars has narrowed down the field and like American Idol, the initial favorite is holding strong. Kristi Yamaguchi is still the overwhelming choice according to the sportsbooks at 4/11.

Former Miami Dolphin Jason Taylor is 2/1, Mario is 10/1 (no word on Luigi) while the long shots are Cristian de la Fuente and Marissa Jaret Winokur at 40/1.

NewBodog offers odds on whether George Clooney will reprise his role in the 15^th season of ‘ER’. No is -130 with yes at -110.

The betting line is also heating up for Hell’s Kitchen as Christina remains the choice at 5/6. Louross at 4/1 and Jen at 7/1 are place and show favorites.

More odds are posted at OffshoreInsiders.com

It’s without question one of the great days of the year for sports bettors and sports handicappers. The San Antonio Spurs open up the Western Conference NBA Finals against the New Orleans Hornets, while in the Eastern Conference, the not-exactly-Eastern Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic.

The ‘Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sport’ arrives on Saturday with the 134^th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. According to sports betting expert Joe Duffy, the only Grandmaster sports handicapper in the world, “It’s the most profitable two minutes in sports.” He says the chalk won’t win today and he has the win, place and show at GodsTips on OffshoreInsiders.com

Out of the 20-horse field entered in the Derby, Big Brown has been singled out as the favorite at 3/1. Trained by Richard Dutrow Jr. and ridden by two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown has gone undefeated as a three-year-old with three victories which includes an impressive win in the Florida Derby. However, if Big Brown does win he’ll have to go against history to do it. Big Brown was unlucky in the post draw and drew the outside No. 20 post. In the Derby’s lengthy history, only one horse has won out of the No. 20 post in 15 attempts. That lone winner was Clyde Van Dusen way back in 1929.

Big Brown’s bad luck in the post draw could provide an opening for Colonel John or Pyro to pull off an upset. Colonel John follows Big Brown on the odds list at 4/1. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby early last month, but the Derby will be the first race he has ever run on a dirt track. All of Colonel John’s previous races were run on synthetic tracks, which could put him at a disadvantage in poor conditions. Pyro was considered to be a perennial favorite after winning his first two races of the season, but a disappointing 10^th-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes has lowered his stock a little. Even with the questions after his Blue Grass finish, Pyro is still listed at 6/1 in the Derby.

There are a number of other interesting stories scattered throughout the rest of the field of 20, including Eight Belles. Listed at 20/1, Eight Belles is the first filly entered in the Derby since 1999 when Excellent Meeting finished fifth and Three Rings was 19^th.

Trainer Barclay Tagg, who trained 2003 Derby champion Funny Cide, pins his hopes for a return to the winner’s circle on Tale of Ekati. The 15/1 underdog won the Wood Memorial earlier this season to make him an interesting dark horse on Saturday. Tagg also has Big Truck in the Derby, but he’s already been written off after receiving the worst odds in the field at 50/1.

Trainer Todd Pletcher failed to snap his long Derby drought last year and he’ll try again with a pair of horses this year. At 0-for-19 in the Derby, Pletcher’s best chance at breaking that streak appears to be Monba, who won the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this year and enters the Derby at 15/1. Pletcher’s other entry is Cowboy Cal at 20/1.

Two other horses listed at 20/1 which are noteworthy include Visionaire and Denis of Cork. Visionaire is this year’s entry for trainer Michael Matz, who trained 2006 winner Barbaro. Oddly enough, Visionaire drew the eighth post, the same position Barbaro started from the year he won. Denis of Cork will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode Street Sense to victory in last year’s Derby. The last jockey to win the Derby in back-to-back years was Ed Delahoussaye on Gato Del Sol in 1982 and on Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

Odds to win Kentucky Derby (updated live)

Big Brown 3/1
Colonel John 4/1
Pyro 6/1
Gayego 15/1
Monba 15/1
Tale of Ekati 15/1
Z Fortune 15/1
Bob Black Jack 20/1
Cool Coal Man 20/1
Court Vision 20/1
Cowboy Cal 20/1
Denis of Cork 20/1
Eight Belles 20/1
Recapturetheglory 20/1
Smooth Air 20/1
Visionaire 20/1
Adriano 30/1
Anak Nakal 30/1
Z Humor 30/1
Big Truck 50/1

Other key betting odds see that for the first time the American Idol Las Vegas odds say that David Archuleta is more likely to not win American Idol by -130 then to win at -110. Also thanks to the racist, anti-American rants of his pastor Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama is no longer considered a lock for the Democratic nomination for the President of the United States betting line. Hillary Clinton is within striking distance at 5/2.

However, Obama is still in a dead heat with John McCain in the POTUS odds at 8/7.

Whenever the NFL off-season rolls around the league and its fans begin to hold their breath.  The reason for this being that history has shown a pattern of bad behavior on behalf of the league’s players.  In the past, incidents with big name stars like Michael Vick, Ricky Williams, and just about every member of the Bengals that have either landed them in jail, or in the courtroom have made off-season drama the rule and not the exception.

The recent arrest of Colts running back Kenton Keith and incidents involving other NFL’ers have shown that this off-season is no different.  This being the case fans across the country are wondering who will be next, and what will they get in trouble for.  Looking for answers they have been flooding the largest most successful sportsbook on the web, BetUs, where oddsmakers have posted odds on all things NFL player behavior.

”The NFL is part of the fabric of the lives of fans in America and their interest in their teams and players goes far beyond the field,” said BetUs spokesman Reed Richards.  “This is illustrated by the number of fans who come to us looking for analysis and predictive information regarding which star or team will be in hot water next.”

Oddsmakers at BetUs Sportsbook osted the following odds on NFL player behavior:

Team to have next player arrested
Dallas Cowboys               15/1      
New York Giants              25/1  
Philadelphia Eagles          15/1
Washington Redskins       25/1
Buffalo Bills                      25/1
Miami Dolphins                 10/1
New England Patriots        25/1
New York Jets                  25/1
Arizona Cardinals             25/1
San Francisco 49ers         25/1
Seattle Seahawks            25/1
St Louis Rams                  25/1
Denver Broncos                 20/1
Kansas City Chiefs           20/1
Oakland Raiders               20/1
San Diego Chargers          25/1
Chicago Bears                  25/1
Detroit Lions                     18/1
Green Bay Packers           25/1
Minnesota Vikings             20/1
Baltimore Ravens              25/1
Cincinnati Bengals             5/1
Cleveland Browns              25/1
Atlanta Falcons                 8/1
Carolina Panthers               25/1
New Orleans Saints           25/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers       25/1
Houston Texans               25/1
Indianapolis Colts             15/1
Jacksonville Jaguars           25/1
Tennessee Titans              25/1
 
Next NFL player arrested will be for
DUI         3/1
Robbery   15/1
Assault    4/1
Tax evasion   25/1
Dog fighting    20/1
Drug possession  2/1
Firearm possession 4/1
Breaking and entering 10/1

Will there be more arrest in the 08-09Reg Season or Offseason
Regular Season    5/12
Offseason            19/10

Total Number of In-Season Arrests
Over 7.5 2/3
Under 7.5 11/10

Will an NFL Player be arrest multiple times before end of 08-09 Regular Season
Yes  5/8
No    1/1

 
Next Professional Sport to Have an athlete arrested
NFL  2/3
NBA  2/1
MLB   5/1
NHL   8/1


For more sports and entertainment odds, visit BetUs Sportsbook


 

We already took a preview of the Kentucky Derby 2008 proposition betting opportunities.

Now OffshoreInsiders.com takes a peek at the odds to win the Run for the Roses. Currently the Las Vegas odds are similar to the more accurate offshore betting odds.

Unlike last year, there is no clear cut favorite. Big Brown is 3/1, while Colonel John is 4/1. Pyro is next at 7/1 followed by a long list of long shots, such as Denis of Cork at 14/1.

Adriano, a popular among the aforesaid proposition lines, is 20/1. Big Truck checks in a 25/1. Eight Belles, the only filly in the 20 horse field, is 16/1.

Here is how the post position draw went in order: Visionaire (16/1), Big Truck, Colonel John, Z Fortune (10/1), Pyro, Eight Belles, Anak Nakal (100/1), Court Vision (20/1), Z Humor (50/1), Monba (20/1), Smooth Air (25/1), Adriano, Bob Black Jack (50/1), Denis of Cork, Cowboy Cal (50/1), Big Brown, Tale of Ekati (25/1), Cool Coal Man (50/1), Recapturetheglory (25/1) and Gayego (25/1).

Kentucky Oaks odds have also been posted at OffshoreInsiders.com. The morning line and updated line are live.

As is usually the case, online sports bettors have many options for betting the Kentucky Derby beyond just the pari-mutuel offerings.

The 2008 Kentucky Derby betting odds are posted. Chances are that your favorite OTB betting establishment does not offer such options as which gate the winner will come from.

More serious horse racing handicappers will prefer the match-ups, such as who will win head-to-head between Big Brown (-600) or Adriano? Pyro, Colonel John, Tale of Ekati, Z Fortune, Recapturetheglory, and Monba are all paired in betting propositions against Adriano.

In fact, all of the favorites are paired up one-on-one in “fantasy” style betting match-ups

One can wager on if the winning time will be over or under 2.01.30. Of course, the magic question is asked, “Will there be a Triple Crown Winner” in 2008. Sports betting expert Joe Duffy admits, “As much as I hate chalk, laying the $800 to win $100 is as tempting as small returns on investment can get,” referring to the “no” option.

Even the inevitable fun questions, such as betting on whether the recitation of “My Old Kentucky Home” will be more than three minutes, are ready for betting prosperity.

Gamble on the number of horses to start, the crowd attendance, number of scratches, length of victory and more. Odds are from NewBodog and updated in real-time at OffshoreInsiders.com