In the biggest SEC Championship Game in NCAAF history, Georgia plays Alabama in the 2021 contest. Georgia is laying -6.5 with a total of 50.5 at MyBookie after a world opener was posted at Betonline, the home of the opening line at -4 and 50.5. Early money poured in on the Bulldogs with 86 percent of bets and 83 percent of the money on the home-state squad. Both metrics lean towards the over with 52 percent of tickets and 66 percent of the handle on a high scoring game.
Georgia is playing in their home state but doesn’t have as much of a travel edge as some may assume. The Tide will travel 187 miles, compared to 61 for UGA. The Dogs are 8-4 ATS, including 6-0 away from home, while Alabama is 6-6 in the back pocket. UGA has gone under 7-of-12 games this year, the Tide under 6-5-1.
Georgia has a big edge on offense, especially in the running game, getting 1.1 more yards per rush, 2.2 yards per pass, and 1.4 more yards per play than their opponents normally allow. Bama gets .1 yards per carry less, but 2.0 yards per pass and 1.0 yards per play above what their foes normally permit.
The Dogs hold teams to a stunning 2.1 yards per rush, 2.1 yards per passing attempt, and 2.0 yards per play (includes special teams) below their normal production. Alabama is solid as well, as teams get 1.7 yards per rush, .6 yards per pass, and 1.2 yards per play below their normal average.
Going against favorites of more than a field goal, but 10 points or less after allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt is 64-41 if both teams average at least 8.3 yards per pass. This includes 34-11 more recently. This angle favors Alabama.
Spread betting trends. All records are ATS: Georgia is 5-0 if they held their previous opponent to under 275 total yards. They are 11-4 on neutral sites. Alabama is 5-0 if they were held to under 100 rushing yards last game, but 3-7 if they hold their last foe to under 100 rushing yards. The underdog has covered 6-of-7 in the series.
Over-under trends: Georgia under 7-1 neutral, under 28-12 after allowing less than 170 passing yards previous game. The Crimson Tide have gone over 12-3 if they held their last opponent to less than 275 total yards. The series has gone over 7-1-1.
Top expert pick: Six college football winners up for Friday and Saturday. This includes Wise Guy side and total on the SEC Championship Game, first time we have had a Wise Guy on both the side and total is this doozie. Four totals, two sides at OffshoreInsiders.com
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