TNF Buccaneers vs. Falcons Pro Bettors Preview

The official betting preview of pro gamblers for Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. 

  • 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB
  • Friday CFB total 
  • Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors
  • Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner.

Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com

Tampa-Atlanta (-1.5,44)

Opened: Atlanta -3, 44

75% of bets, 86% of money on Tampa

80% of bets, 75% of handle on OVER 

Free winning bet:

Tampa-Atlanta UNDER 44

Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet. 

Systems:

Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)

Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home team’s home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)

First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)

Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)

Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)

Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)

Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)

  • Public loves overs, so books need unders says it’s not coincidental 

Trends

Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years

Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lights 

Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetime 

Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogs 

Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him

Notes:

Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68

Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson

Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer 

Prop bets

Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards

Integrated more into offense and Tampa’s WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passes 

Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carries 

He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries

Power ratings:

Massey: Tampa 23-20 (TB ATS and money)

OddsTrader: Atlanta 22-19 (lean UNDER)

Sportsline: Atlanta 24-23

BetQL: Atlanta 23-21

StatSharp: 22-22 tie

Action: Atlanta -2, 44

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NFL Week 5 Winning Bet

Joe Duffy’s NFL week 5 winning bet is on: 

MIAMI +1 New England MyBookie review

The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.

🏈 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB. 📊 Friday CFB total 🔥 Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors. 🏈Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner. All this at OffshoreInsiders.com

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NFL Opening Lines Week 5, Line Moves Compared to Lookahead Lines

Are the Commanders for real? Can anyone beat Minnesota? Will the Jags ever earn a W?  The best NFL handicappers know this answer.

A lot of storylines emerged from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and again, there were a lot of upsets. 

Below, we take a peek ahead into Week 5. 

Every Friday, Betonline releases look-ahead lines for the following week. The look-ahead numbers are taken down on Sunday right before the games start, and then they are re-opened Sunday evening. 

If there’s significant movement (1.5 points or more) from the look-ahead spread or total that are released prior to Week 4, that will be notated under the opening line below.  

NFL Week 5 spread are subject to change at Betonline from these NFL opening lines.

NFL Week 5 Opening Odds 

Thursday, October 3 

  • Bucs @ Falcons (-2.5, 42.5) 

Sunday, October 6 

  • Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5, 41.5) 
  • Panthers @ Bears (-4.5, 43.5) 
  • Ravens @ Bengals (+1.5, 48.5) 

(Look-ahead total was 47) 

  • Dolphins @ Patriots (PK, 36) 

(Look-ahead total was 42.5) 

  • Browns @ Commanders (-3, 44) 
  • Colts @ Jags (-2.5, 45.5) 
  • Bills @ Texans (+2.5, 47) 

(Look-ahead spread was Bills -1) 

  • Raiders @ Broncos (-2, 36) 
  • Cardinals @ 49ers (-7, 48.5) 
  • Packers @ Rams (+3, 46.5) 
  • Giants @ Seahawks (-6, 42) 
  • Cowboys @ Steelers (-2, 41) 

(Look-ahead spread was a pick ‘em) 

Monday, October 7 

  • Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43) 

(Look-ahead total was 45.5) 

Get the winning bets at OffshoreInsiders.com We uses NFL opening lines, lookahead lines, with other power ratings, computer sims, betting models and more.

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Opening Lines Week 6 College Football

What a week we had in college football and opening lines and point spreads are up for this week.

We saw No. 6 Ole Miss go down to Kentucky, while Alabama and Georgia produced a battle of the ages. 

I thought the below opening Week 6 NCAAF spreads may be of interest to you. They’re courtesy of Betonline  

College Football Week 6 lines are subject to change. Visit Betonline to see line moves.  BetOnline review.

Note: FBS vs FCS game lines don’t get posted until later in the week. 

Week 6 College Football Lines. Spread winners will be at OffshoreInsiders.com

Thursday, October 3, 2024 

  • Texas State (-15) @ Troy 
  • Sam Houston (-10) @ UTEP 

Friday, October 4, 2024 

  • Jacksonville State (-14) @ Kennesaw State 
  • Houston @ TCU (-16.5) 
  • Michigan State (-24) @ Oregon 
  • Syracuse @ UNLV (-4) 

Saturday, October 5, 2024 

  • Tennessee (–13.5) @ Arkansas 
  • Pittsburgh (-2) @ North Carolina 
  • UCLA @ Penn State (–27.5) 
  • Michigan @ Washington (-2) 
  • USC (–8.5) @ Minnesota 
  • Clemson (–14.5) @ Florida State 
  • Baylor @ Iowa State (–12.5) 
  • Utah State @ Boise State (-27) 
  • Indiana (–11.5) @ Northwestern 
  • Rutgers @ Nebraska (-7) 
  • Purdue @ Wisconsin (–12.5) 
  • Texas Tech @ Arizona (–5.5) 
  • Missouri @ Texas A&M (–2.5) 
  • SMU @ Louisville (-7) 
  • Massachusetts @ Northern Illinois (–17.5) 
  • Boston College @ Virginia (–3.5) 
  • Wake Forest @ NC State (–5.5) 
  • Navy (–7.5) @ Air Force 
  • Army (–10) @ Tulsa 
  • Tulane (–14) @ UAB 
  • Western Michigan (–7.5) @ Ball State 
  • Auburn @ Georgia (–23.5) 
  • Iowa @ Ohio State (-20) 
  • Ole Miss (–9.5) @ South Carolina 
  • Temple @ UConn (–13.5) 
  • Virginia Tech (–6.5) @ Stanford 
  • App State @ Marshall (-2) 
  • Miami (OH) @ Toledo (–6.5) 
  • Bowling Green (–14) @ Akron 
  • East Carolina (–7.5) @ Charlotte 
  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (-5) 
  • Alabama (–24) @ Vanderbilt 
  • Colorado State @ Oregon State (–13.5) 
  • Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina (-5) 
  • South Alabama (–3.5) @ Arkansas State 
  • James Madison (–14.5) @ UL Monroe 
  • Louisiana (–14 @ Southern Miss) 
  • Nevada @ San José State (–7.5) 
  • UCF @ Florida (–1.5) 
  • Duke @ Georgia Tech (–8.5) 
  • Kansas @ Arizona State (–2.5) 
  • Hawai’i @ San Diego State (–2.5) 
  • Miami (–12.5) @ California 
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Free College Football Bet Backed By One of the Greatest Betting Systems in Sports

Free winning pick from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com

OKLAHOMA STATE +5 Kansas State at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie

Bubble burst angle that has to do with fading teams off a heartbreaking loss. We have several versions of it with similar concept, but slightly different metrics, all with uncanny results. This one is 96-29-4. It has to do with teams off their first loss of the season and it being a blowout loss. 

Frankly, because it has not been as automatic in recent years, it is not a premium bet at this moment, but our free picks are either premium bets or our top games that we are considering for premium.  

Joe Duffy has💥 2 Friday bets, including an insane 62-14-1 super system

Saturday🔥 FSI Total of the Year !🎯 Another named play winner among 4 Wise Guys 🤯 and 11 Majors 🎲

🏆 11 Sunday NFL: AI super systems 🤖, outsourced bets (biggest picks from MasterLockLine), contrarian intel

⚡ 2 MNF matchups lined up! 🏈🎯all at OffshoreInsiders.com

Everything Bettors Must Know For Giants-Cowboys Betting Including Prop Angles

Super sharp intel from the top NFL handicapper in history Joe Duffy

Opening Line: Cowboys -4, Total 44.5
Current Line: Cowboys -6, Total 45.5
Betting Percentages:

  • Dallas: 83% of bets, 80% of money
  • Over: 66% of wagers, 60% of handle

  • Thursday Night Road Teams in Close Games: Teams like Dallas, playing on the road on a Thursday night when the game is not expected to be a blowout, have historically thrived, going 35-9 ATS (Against The Spread).
  • Home Underdogs Off a Road Win: The Giants find themselves in a favorable spot here. Home underdogs coming off a win as a road underdog, in specific situational trends like this, are 164-117-13 ATS, pointing to a potential cover by New York.
  • Fumbles and Third Downs: Dallas also benefits from a key stat—teams that fumbled in their previous game but are now playing an opponent with fewer than 12 third-down conversions (as the Giants have) are 562-435-20 ATS. This stat edges in Dallas’ favor.
  • High Fumble Totals and the Over: Since 2015, if one team had at least one fumble in its last game and the current total is 45 or higher, the game tends to go over the total, hitting at 137-99-4. This points toward a potential over play in this matchup.

NFL Picks Organic Factors to Consider:

  • Motivation vs. Perception: Bettors should be cautious of wagering on the “team that needs it more.” Dallas may have shown fight in their previous game, but some argue the final score made it look closer than it was.
  • Series Dominance: The Cowboys completely dominated the Giants in last season’s matchups, winning both games by a combined 89-17. However, division games can be notoriously unpredictable, especially with erratic quarterbacks on both sides.
  • Sharp Insight on 1st Quarter: One sharp bettor loves Dallas to come out strong after last week’s humiliating performance. Their first-quarter bet on Dallas -0.5 is a strategy to watch for those seeking early game value.

  • Giants’ Resilience: New York has shown a knack for bouncing back after being an underdog. They are 13-0 over the past three seasons in games where they were an underdog of 4.5 points or more and were tied no more than once during the game. This suggests they perform well under pressure.
  • Brian Daboll’s Magic: Giants head coach Brian Daboll is 15-2 ATS when his team is not winless and coming off a game in which they were not favored by at least 4.5 points.
  • Giants’ Home Under Trend: Since 2020, Giants home games have trended under the total, going 24-8 in games where they aren’t seeking revenge within the same season.

Computer Models & Power Ratings:

  • BetQL: Cowboys 27.5, Giants 19 (Slight lean to Dallas)
  • Sportsline: Cowboys 25, Giants 19
  • Action Network: Cowboys -4.7, Total 45.1
  • Massey Ratings: Cowboys 24, Giants 19
  • Oddstrader: Cowboys 26, Giants 17 (Lean to Dallas)
  • BettingPros: Cowboys -6, Total 42.5 (Slight lean to the under)

Despite some variance across models, the consensus leans toward a Dallas win by roughly 5-6 points.


Player Prop Bets to Watch:

  • Wan’Dale Robinson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ zone defense is likely to leave Robinson as a safety valve. He could see a boost in targets, especially if the Giants are trailing.
  • Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ two-headed running attack with Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott suggests the younger, fresher Dowdle could see significant work, especially if Dallas builds a lead. The Giants have been vulnerable against the run, making this a solid play.
  • CeeDee Lamb Over Props: Lamb should be motivated after owning up to mistakes from the previous week. With Andru Phillips out for the Giants, Lamb finds himself in a major mismatch against Deonte Banks, setting him up for a potential breakout performance.

Conclusion:
Dallas looks poised to cover, especially with systems favoring Thursday night road teams and fumble-related trends working in their favor. However, the Giants’ impressive home underdog trends and Brian Daboll’s track record suggest they could keep it closer than expected. This game may also lean toward the over, given the historical trends surrounding higher totals with fumbles in play. Prop bettors should focus on Lamb, Robinson, and Dowdle for value plays.

Expect a competitive NFC East clash with plenty of betting angles to explore!

Cowboys-Giants Thursday Night Football Betting Splits: Fading the Public and Contrarian BetsCowboys-Giants

Game Overview

  • Matchup: Dallas Cowboys (-6) vs. New York Giants
  • Total Points: 45.5
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -4, 44.5

Betting Splits

  • Spread: 83% of bets and 80% of the money are on the Cowboys.
  • Total Points: 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle are on the OVER.

Analysis

The betting splits for this Thursday Night Football game show a significant public lean towards the Dallas Cowboys. With 83% of bets and 80% of the money backing Dallas, this presents a classic opportunity for contrarian bettors to fade the public. Historically, betting against the public in such lopsided scenarios can be profitable, especially when the line has moved from its opening position of Cowboys -4 to -6 at sportsbooks.

The total points market also shows a majority of bets on the OVER, with 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle. This indicates that the public expects a high-scoring game, which might be another angle for contrarian bettors to consider.

Joe Duffy’s Insights

Joe Duffy, a renowned sports handicapper, is kicking off his third consecutive winning week with a strong lineup of bets. His picks for Thursday Night Football include both the side and total, along with a college football side, an NFL player prop, and an MLB side. Duffy’s track record this season is impressive, with a 6-0 record on named plays in football and an 11-5 record in the NFL. His latest success includes hitting the Bills OVER as the Monday Night Football Total of the Year.

For more detailed analysis and picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com.

Week 5 College Football Lines Up

Week 5 NFL lines from Betonline

For all the winning bets, it’s OffshoreInsiders.com

Week 5 College Football Lines

Thursday, September 26, 2024

  • Army (-13) @ Temple

Friday, September 27, 2024

  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (-17)
  • Washington @ Rutgers (-3)

Saturday, September 28, 2024

  • Northern Illinois @ NC State (-7)
  • Maryland @ Indiana (-6½)
  • Buffalo @ UConn (-4½)
  • Western Kentucky @ Boston College (-11)
  • Kentucky @ Ole Miss (-17)
  • Nebraska (-9½) @ Purdue
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (-5½)
  • Navy (-2½) @ UAB
  • South Florida @ Tulane (-6½)
  • Wisconsin @ USC (-14)
  • Oklahoma (-3) @ Auburn
  • Minnesota @ Michigan (-10)
  • Arkansas @ Texas A&M (-5½)
  • BYU @ Baylor (-3)
  • TCU @ Kansas (-2½)
  • Colorado @ UCF (-13)
  • Ball State @ James Madison (-19)
  • Texas State (-8) @ Sam Houston
  • Cincinnati @ Texas Tech (-3½)
  • Louisville @ Notre Dame (-5)
  • Louisiana @ Wake Forest (-3)
  • Liberty (-3) @ App State
  • Fresno State @ UNLV (-4)
  • San Diego State (pk) @ Central Michigan (pk)
  • Georgia Southern (pk) @ Georgia State (pk)
  • Western Michigan @ Marshall (-5½)
  • Akron @ Ohio (-12½)
  • Massachusetts @ Miami Ohio (-17)
  • Eastern Michigan (-13½) @ Kent State
  • North Carolina @ Duke (-2½)
  • UTSA @ East Carolina (-4½)
  • Mississippi State @ Texas (-40)
  • Old Dominion @ Bowling Green (-9)
  • Louisiana Tech (-2) @ Florida International
  • Stanford @ Clemson (-21½)
  • Iowa State (-12½) @ Houston
  • UL Monroe @ Troy (-9)
  • Charlotte @ Rice (-6½)
  • Tulsa @ North Texas (-7½)
  • Georgia (-2) @ Alabama
  • Middle Tennessee @ Memphis (-24½)
  • Illinois @ Penn State (-17½)
  • South Alabama @ LSU (-20½)
  • Florida State @ SMU (-5½)
  • Washington State @ Boise State (-7)
  • New Mexico (-7) @ New Mexico State
  • Ohio State (-24½) @ Michigan State
  • Air Force (-2½) @ Wyoming 
  • Arizona @ Utah (-12)
  • Oregon (-24) @ UCLA

Week 4 NFL Opening Lines, With Line Moves From Lookahead

Every Thursday or Friday, Betonline opens up look-ahead lines for the following week. They are taken down on Sunday right before the games start. Here are the opening lines and lookahead lines for week 4. 

Then they are re-opened once the games end. OffshoreInsiders.com exploits this intel. 

Sometimes there can be a massive change based on injuries or poor play. 

If there’s a big line movement from the look-ahead lines, that will be notated.

As you’ll see below, Week 4 has had by far the biggest changes from the look-ahead lines.

NFL Week 4 Lines

Thursday, September 26, 2024

  • Dallas (-5½) @ New York Giants
    • Note: Dallas opened -6½.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

  • New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1½)
  • Los Angeles Rams (-1) @ Chicago
    • Note: Chicago opened -3.
  • Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2)
  • Pittsburgh (-2) @ Indianapolis
    • Note: Indianapolis opened -1.
  • Denver @ New York Jets (-7½)
  • Philadelphia (-2½) @ Tampa Bay
    • Note: Game opened as a pick’em.
  • Cincinnati (-6½) @ Carolina
  • Jacksonville @ Houston (-4½)
  • Washington @ Arizona (-4½)
  • New England @ San Francisco (-10½) 
  • Cleveland (-1½) @ Las Vegas
  • Kansas City (-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers
    • Note: KC opened -3½.
  • Buffalo @ Baltimore (-2½)

Monday, September 30, 2024

  • Tennessee (-1) @ Miami
    • Note: Miami opened -2½.
  • Seattle @ Detroit (-4½)

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Biggest Public Betting Moves For Saturday College Football

As we dive into the latest college football betting landscape, it’s essential to understand where the public money is going, which teams are seeing sharp action, and how line moves are reflecting market sentiment. This week’s college football betting activity is a fascinating mix of heavy public support, sharp bettor interest, and significant line movement. Let’s take a closer look at the trends that we bet at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie:

Public Betting Trends: % of Bets

📊 Ohio State, Army, Iowa
The Buckeyes of Ohio State are once again a public favorite, with a large percentage of bettors throwing their support behind the perennial powerhouse. Army and Iowa round out the teams receiving the majority of public backing. This trend indicates strong confidence in these teams’ ability to cover the spread, even as oddsmakers adjust lines to account for this wave of betting activity.

Where the Big Money is: % of Money

💵 Duke, UTSA, Toledo, Ohio State
While Ohio State dominates in terms of the number of bets, larger amounts of money are also coming in on the Blue Devils of Duke, UTSA, and Toledo. When big money is flowing in a particular direction, it often suggests that more experienced or high-stakes bettors are confident in their picks. Keep an eye on these teams as they could be indicators of where the sharps are leaning.

Sharp Action

🔪 Troy, Boise State
The sharp bettors—those considered to have inside information or advanced analytical skills—are targeting Troy and Boise State this week. When sharp action piles up on a team, it often means there’s hidden value in the lines that the general public hasn’t spotted yet. This sharp action could lead to further line movement as sportsbooks adjust to balance their risk.

Line Movements

📈 Line moves are an essential tool in any bettor’s arsenal, as they reflect how sportsbooks are reacting to incoming bets. This week, we’ve seen significant movement in several games:

  • Clemson opened at -14.5 and has been bet up to -18.5, indicating strong confidence in the Tigers to cover a big spread.
  • FAU opened at -2 but is now sitting at +1.5, a 3.5-point swing. This kind of movement suggests heavy action on their opponent.
  • SMSU has seen its line move from -13 to -16.5, reflecting increased belief in a dominant performance.
  • Memphis saw their line shrink from -12.5 to -9.5, which may indicate concerns about their ability to cover a double-digit spread.
  • North Texas opened at -10 but has moved to -7, a key move around a critical number in football betting.
  • Baylor flipped from a 1-point underdog to a 2-point favorite, a massive swing suggesting strong public and sharp confidence in the Bears.
  • Oregon State opened as a 6-point favorite but now sits at -3, reflecting significant action on their opponent.

What These Trends Mean for Bettors

Understanding the dynamics between public betting, sharp action, and line movement can give you a strategic edge. Public money can inflate lines, providing value on the opposite side. Sharp action often indicates hidden value, while line movements can reveal where sportsbooks are trying to balance their books.

As the week progresses, keeping an eye on line shifts and where the big money is going will help you make more informed bets. Whether you’re riding with the public on Ohio State or following sharp action on Boise State, understanding these trends can be the difference between cashing a ticket and coming up short.

Conclusion
This week’s college football betting slate offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on public trends, sharp action, and evolving lines. Stay updated, and use these insights to make smarter wagers as the season unfolds. Keep in mind that the most successful bettors are those who combine knowledge of these factors with discipline and strategy.

Happy betting, and good luck!

Joe Duffy is the strongest gambler in history and has three Wise Guy bets leading an incredible portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com


By using data from the betting market, including public money, sharp action, and line movements, you can better position yourself to make informed decisions when wagering on college football. Stay sharp, and watch for late line shifts as kickoff approaches!

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