I’m Joe Duffy, CEO of picksdepot.com, uur brand new website, where we’re going to focus on the best US sports books and of course, the top handicappers in the country.
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Now before I get to the specific bets, I want to tell you a little bit about my strategy.
First of all, when you’re talking about and in this report, it’s going to be about NFL over-unders in terms of wins.
Strength of schedule can be a little bit dicey because you’re asking to look maybe 9 and 10 weeks into the schedule and then guess which teams are the biggest disappointments and the biggest busts and whether or not they’re going to have injuries. I weigh strength of schedule more lightly
than most people would, in part because strength of schedule is definitely taken into account when the odds are made.
But I really think that is probably the least scientific part of really predicting whether a team is going to go over or under those wins.
I always start with guys who touch the ball. Of course, you want to have great offensive lineman. Of course, you want to have a tremendous defense, but the key to winning?
I’m sorry it does start with the quarterback and then the wide receivers tight end and running backs. And yeah, I know running backs aren’t nearly as important as when I first started handicapping back in 1988. The biggest disappointments and the biggest bust are usually the ones with the quarterbacks that either exceed their expectations or go below it.
And then after that it’s guys who do touch the ball. It’s very rare that a quarterback lives up to performance and they still are disappointing.
Surprising teams, although you could argue that the team closest to where I’m broadcasting this from, the Atlanta Falcons might be the exception to the rule.
They do have one of the league’s premier quarterbacks, but haven’t really at least in recent years lived up to expectations.
Also, disappointing teams from the previous season tend to be the ones that come into this season. Overvalued, and obviously, teams that exceeded expectations the previous season are often the ones that come into this season overvalued. We take that into consideration. So, my first pick for the 2021-2022 NFL season when it comes to over unders in wins from picksdepot.com is the LA Rams to go under the ten wins.
Matt Stafford, it’s no secret, I’ve always known that he was an overrated quarterback, and quite frankly, I’ve been right about that. Yeah, I do think there is a possibility of a honeymoon period and quite possibly even the best bet here would be to wait till the Rams get off to a decent start and maybe that total goes up.
I think it’s going to be kind of similar to what Cam Newton was with the Patriots last year. Remember, he started out looking like he was going to be the answer and then there was a point of diminishing return.
Matt Stafford is another one of these quarterbacks that has the tremendous arm, but he’s not a very good.
The reason that his teams are always busts, Matt Stafford needs to look in the mirror. I saw this when he was in college. He made bad decisions when games were on the line, he was able to take defeat from the jaws of victory. And then he’s been doing that in the NFL. The Rams are overrated, they were heisted.
In addition to that trade, they also lost a ton on defense. Again, I didn’t say that defense is irrelevant. I just said that defense is something that I’m not.
In a way quite as heavily as I am going to be, the guys that touched the ball but they lost Johnson and Hill all the pressures on Matt Stafford and frankly, Stafford hasn’t handled the pressure.
Now I don’t question his mental toughness and his physical toughness. I know he’s been through so much with his wife. I mean, I respect the man and I respect him as a family. I know he does take a beating. He’s in many respects like Jeff George. Physical toughness is one thing, but as far as his ability to perform in big games, and as far as his production matching his talents now he does constantly make bad decisions.
And Matt Stafford, by the way, as an aside, and this is really important. Stafford’s been a guy that if you know the truth is I don’t really do as much live betting. Maybe as I should.
By the time the game starts, I like to going out to a sports bar with my friends or the last year with the plague, I watched everything from home.
A lot of my software, my systems, my models are based on full games, but when I do mess around, Matt Stafford is one of these guys that I like to say is predictably unpredictable.
If Stafford falls behind in a game, he’s a great bet on the live line. If he takes a big lead in a game, he’s a great bet to fade, because Stafford can look like an all-pro quarterback one quarter and then it could look like a second stringer the next quarter, so he’s one of those guys.
Sean McVay, He’s typical of, you know, give me talent and I’ll coach him up.
That’s why he’s overvalued, but people think that Sean McVay is a genius. But you know why? People thought Sean McVay was a genius because he was able to turn around, Jared Goff. Jared Goff had that rookie year where was a disappointment.
Then McVey took over and all of a sudden Goff looked like he was one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.
Then he regressed under this alleged genius. So, I think people are expecting that this marriage between McVay and Stafford is going to be somehow magical.
I don’t believe it. If he was that great of a coach, Jared Goff would still be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.
Again, because I do think there is going to be a honeymoon period, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams get off to a decent start, but I think they’re going to continue to drop down.
But still my official bet for this report is the Rams to go under the ten wins. Also from picksdepo: Well, you could have predicted. This the Detroit Lions over the five wins. And yeah, it’s a little confusing.
It’s a little bit tough for me to make this mental adjustment. I’m thinking Detroit Lions? That’s Matt Stafford, quarterback of the Detroit Lions, right?
Well, now of course the Lions got the better part of this trade. They had five wins last year, but of course they have that extra game this season. Jared Goff, much like Matt Stafford mew life, and we saw what happened the last time, Jared had new life. He had a fantastic season where he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. You know, the guy that people loved McVay because of Jared Goff. Now he became Mcvay’s scapegoat.
Anthony Lynn is the offensive coordinator. He loves going out of the shotgun, which is where Goff really excelled in college.
And and also has to be a coaching upgrade here. Matt Patricia, another in a long line of these Bill Belichick assistants who were terrible as a head coach.
This is addition by subtraction. The Detroit Lions no longer have Matt Patricia as a coach. I doubt if we’ll get another chance at a head coach.
Well, he’s he’s young enough. He may, somewhere along the lines, but again, addition by subtraction.
A new coach, new players. They’re going to have the element of surprise. Some new life. Definitely. Like Detroit over the five wins at PicksDepot.
Again, follow me on Twitter @PicksDepot.
Chicago Bears to go under the seven and a half wins. The Bears had six wins as underdogs last year. No other team had more than four, so they weren’t quite as good as the record last year.
And that’s why I think they definitely come into here overvalued. Also, Andy Dalton is going to start the year as their starting quarterback.
He’s one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Fields, who may take over before the year’s out, not totally sold on him.
He kind of has that Sam Darnold ability when the game is on the line to throw big interceptions. Yes, he had the one fantastic game against Clemson his senior year, but also remember Clemson the previous year he made some big mistakes and then in the national championship game last season. Granted was against Alabama.
He had some mistakes there, so I’m not completely sold on Justin Fields. He’s a work in progress. I do think that Andy Dalton is going to be their starter for most of the year. And like I said Andy Dalton is at best like the 25th, 26th, 27th best quarterback in the league.
He’s either a good backup or a terrible starter, so Chicago under the seven and a half. The Dallas Cowboys also from PicksDepot to go under the nine and a half wins.
All right, this is going to be somewhat controversial, but don’t let your politics get in the way the facts.
The Cowboys have a low vaccination rate, especially with this delta variant, and I think they’re going to have players that are going to miss a lot of time being in the COVID protocol franchise. Quarterback Dak Prescott, he’s returning from a brutal injury and remember, Prescott clearly won the job from Tony Romo when he took over for Romo’s injury. But the truth is at best Prescott’s been in a holding pattern since then.
It looked like Dak Prescott was going to be the next one. Clearly was on his way to being a franchise quarterback, and he’s been kind of so-so since a Prescott hasn’t shown anything to me that he is ready to take that next step and become one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. And again, that was a horrific injury.
Those of you who watched it, I watched it live. This is really a tough injury to come from. So many quarterbacks have struggled to come back from injuries, and it may take him another year or so.
So Dallas is to one of these teams that on paper, yeah, I know the wide receiving core is pretty impressive.
A lot of people who I respect have them as the first, second, or third best receiving core in the NFL. They might be able to argue that they’re a little bit overrated still without question one of the elite receiving corps, but again coming back from an injury, a quarterback that really hasn’t progressed the way that we expect it in Dallas is perennially a major disappointment. They never seem to match their expectations and there might be a reason for that because they are.
They are America’s team, they’re generally going to be overvalued. So again, Dallas under the nine and a half. Remember also like the Chicago Bears under the seven and a half. These are win totals. Of course, Detroit to go over the number.
I’ve got LA Rams to go under the ten.
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Starter with total less than any recent starts goes UNDER 3097-2347-245.
Good until the end of the month, the biggest sale in the history of the MasterLockLine. Normally $325 get the monthly pick pack for $175! Historic 613-391 run. When it applies to both pitchers, it goes under 451-280-32. This is a lower total than any of Montas’s last 12 starts. But he is in a nice groove allowing 7 ER, none unearned in last five starts over 23 1/3 IP, including 3 over 12 2/3 over his last two trips. Each of Kikuchi’s last three starts had totals of 8.5 or more. Accuscore has 57.3 percent of 10K simulations going under.
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HOUSTON (ODORIZZI -135) NY Yankees (Cortes) at Betonline, the home of the opening line
The Yankees played yesterday in Seattle and make the trip to Houston, a team that last traveled on Independence Day. Nestor Cortes has nice numbers, but he is not pitching a lot of innings and his resume suggests regression is ready to come. My top model has Houston winning 72 percent of 10K simulations. AccuScore has Houston winning 63.5 percent. Jake Odorizzi has given up one run in his last four starts over 20 IP, allowing just 8 hits and walking four.
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