Are the Commanders for real? Can anyone beat Minnesota? Will the Jags ever earn a W?  The best NFL handicappers know this answer.

A lot of storylines emerged from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and again, there were a lot of upsets. 

Below, we take a peek ahead into Week 5. 

Every Friday, Betonline releases look-ahead lines for the following week. The look-ahead numbers are taken down on Sunday right before the games start, and then they are re-opened Sunday evening. 

If there’s significant movement (1.5 points or more) from the look-ahead spread or total that are released prior to Week 4, that will be notated under the opening line below.  

NFL Week 5 spread are subject to change at Betonline from these NFL opening lines.

NFL Week 5 Opening Odds 

Thursday, October 3 

• Bucs @ Falcons (-2.5, 42.5) 

Sunday, October 6 

• Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5, 41.5) 

• Panthers @ Bears (-4.5, 43.5) 

• Ravens @ Bengals (+1.5, 48.5) 

(Look-ahead total was 47) 

• Dolphins @ Patriots (PK, 36) 

(Look-ahead total was 42.5) 

• Browns @ Commanders (-3, 44) 

• Colts @ Jags (-2.5, 45.5) 

• Bills @ Texans (+2.5, 47) 

(Look-ahead spread was Bills -1) 

• Raiders @ Broncos (-2, 36) 

• Cardinals @ 49ers (-7, 48.5) 

• Packers @ Rams (+3, 46.5) 

• Giants @ Seahawks (-6, 42) 

• Cowboys @ Steelers (-2, 41) 

(Look-ahead spread was a pick ‘em) 

Monday, October 7 

• Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43) 

(Look-ahead total was 45.5) 

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Super sharp intel from the top NFL handicapper in history Joe Duffy

Opening Line: Cowboys -4, Total 44.5
Current Line: Cowboys -6, Total 45.5
Betting Percentages:

• Dallas: 83% of bets, 80% of money
• Over: 66% of wagers, 60% of handle

Key Systems & NFL Betting Trends:

• Thursday Night Road Teams in Close Games: Teams like Dallas, playing on the road on a Thursday night when the game is not expected to be a blowout, have historically thrived, going 35-9 ATS (Against The Spread).
• Home Underdogs Off a Road Win: The Giants find themselves in a favorable spot here. Home underdogs coming off a win as a road underdog, in specific situational trends like this, are 164-117-13 ATS, pointing to a potential cover by New York.
• Fumbles and Third Downs: Dallas also benefits from a key stat—teams that fumbled in their previous game but are now playing an opponent with fewer than 12 third-down conversions (as the Giants have) are 562-435-20 ATS. This stat edges in Dallas’ favor.
• High Fumble Totals and the Over: Since 2015, if one team had at least one fumble in its last game and the current total is 45 or higher, the game tends to go over the total, hitting at 137-99-4. This points toward a potential over play in this matchup.

NFL Picks Organic Factors to Consider:

• Motivation vs. Perception: Bettors should be cautious of wagering on the “team that needs it more.” Dallas may have shown fight in their previous game, but some argue the final score made it look closer than it was.
• Series Dominance: The Cowboys completely dominated the Giants in last season’s matchups, winning both games by a combined 89-17. However, division games can be notoriously unpredictable, especially with erratic quarterbacks on both sides.
• Sharp Insight on 1st Quarter: One sharp bettor loves Dallas to come out strong after last week’s humiliating performance. Their first-quarter bet on Dallas -0.5 is a strategy to watch for those seeking early game value.

NFL Handicapping Trends to Watch:

• Giants’ Resilience: New York has shown a knack for bouncing back after being an underdog. They are 13-0 over the past three seasons in games where they were an underdog of 4.5 points or more and were tied no more than once during the game. This suggests they perform well under pressure.
• Brian Daboll’s Magic: Giants head coach Brian Daboll is 15-2 ATS when his team is not winless and coming off a game in which they were not favored by at least 4.5 points.
• Giants’ Home Under Trend: Since 2020, Giants home games have trended under the total, going 24-8 in games where they aren’t seeking revenge within the same season.

Computer Models & Power Ratings:

• BetQL: Cowboys 27.5, Giants 19 (Slight lean to Dallas)
• Sportsline: Cowboys 25, Giants 19
• Action Network: Cowboys -4.7, Total 45.1
• Massey Ratings: Cowboys 24, Giants 19
• Oddstrader: Cowboys 26, Giants 17 (Lean to Dallas)
• BettingPros: Cowboys -6, Total 42.5 (Slight lean to the under)

Despite some variance across models, the consensus leans toward a Dallas win by roughly 5-6 points.

Player Prop Bets to Watch:

• Wan’Dale Robinson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ zone defense is likely to leave Robinson as a safety valve. He could see a boost in targets, especially if the Giants are trailing.
• Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ two-headed running attack with Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott suggests the younger, fresher Dowdle could see significant work, especially if Dallas builds a lead. The Giants have been vulnerable against the run, making this a solid play.
• CeeDee Lamb Over Props: Lamb should be motivated after owning up to mistakes from the previous week. With Andru Phillips out for the Giants, Lamb finds himself in a major mismatch against Deonte Banks, setting him up for a potential breakout performance.

Conclusion:
Dallas looks poised to cover, especially with systems favoring Thursday night road teams and fumble-related trends working in their favor. However, the Giants’ impressive home underdog trends and Brian Daboll’s track record suggest they could keep it closer than expected. This game may also lean toward the over, given the historical trends surrounding higher totals with fumbles in play. Prop bettors should focus on Lamb, Robinson, and Dowdle for value plays.

Expect a competitive NFC East clash with plenty of betting angles to explore!