Who are the best teams to bet on and against this season? OffshoreInsiders.com has the answer. Top NFL teams this season based on margin of cover:
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover:
As we file this report, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 37-18 in football for the season, college and pro, starting with the HOF Game winner. Please see menu for latest update of winners. I have eight NFL sides, totals, plus a prop bet now at OffshoreInsiders.com
Week 3 NFL free pick
NY JETS +9.5 Dallas
Week 2 is definitely about overreaction and teams off massive covers are a stunning 16-0 fade, just 3-13 SU under specific situations that apply in this game. Other full season regression angles apply as well. Of course nobody wants to bet on the stiff QB the Jets have, nor bet against the Cowboys who looked like the best team in the league last week. That’s what gives this team value.
Pro gamblers keep rolling. Joe Duffy’s Picks went 4-0 last night and thanks to pro gambler metrics now 37-18 football, college and NFL going back to preseason. A combination of pro systems, best simulators and models, contrarian intel, and outsourced picks from “organic” betting pros, this is what whales all over the world got last night at OffshoreInsiders.com
MINNESOTA +7.5 Philadelphia
We have several overreaction angles relative to week 1 results, including one that is 67.5 percent, another is 163-110.
NAVY +14.5 Memphis
Big conference road dogs in a game the oddsmakers say will be low scoring is 436-321-21.
MILWAUKEE (HOUSER +102) Miami (Perez)
The model’s simulation average moneyline probability of 62.0% is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 50.98.
Minnesota-White Sox OVER 9.5 (Maeda-Urena)
We have angles that compare total to season to date averages for pitcher, team, and also recent play for each. A combo angle in which all apply goes over at a rate of 56.8 percent with thousands in the sample size and it is up for 2023.
It is week 1 of NFL and the bets are up. Joe Duffy and the pro bettors nailed Detroit Thursday as Duffy improves to 18-9 since preseason. We are up toseven NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy.2 Sunday NFL player props added at OffshoreInsiders.com
Week 1 NFL Free Pick
HOUSTON +9.5 Baltimore
Week 1 teams that missed playoff previous season versus opponent that made the playoffs is 85-56-2. Squares hate 9.5 but under this system is is 6-0 and at 9 or 9.5 it is 9-1. There is a bizarre fear of 9.5 because of 10 being a key number and people think it’s one of the worst numbers in sports, but covers in all situations at 54.5 percent all-time as opposed to 10 at just 50.5.
This is one of those that could easily become a premium bet as of my few sharps has Houston with nobody on Baltimore.
There will likely be more picks added but at press time, Joe Duffy’s Picks continues to humiliate the bookies. Oh all I am is 27-12 this football season. Saturday, Non-Conference Game of the Year among 5 Wise Guys, 2 Majors. First 4 NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy all at OffshoreInsiders.com. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling.
This is one of those picks that could possibly be elevated to premium play, but not just yet. Only 37.5 points is expected to be scored in this game, making the 14.5 loom that much larger. I have an angle that says to go with a large underdog in a game anticipated to be low-scoring is 238-188-13.
Also, after an audit, we told you I am weighing some of my outsources a little heavier. When my “organic” trusted sources agree with my computer systems, the winning is insane and one of the few sharps who wins consistently in college football has my back here.
It’s not a premium play at least yet because the quoted system isn’t as good as other ones using different parameters, but the same philosophy. This is in part due to the fact the better versions of this angle have held up even better in recent years. Also, the fact it is an early public bet has kept it from the premium threshold. But stay tuned depending on further corroboration.
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