Top NFL Teams to Bet On and Against in 2023 Based on Sweat Barometer

Who are the best teams to bet on and against this season? has the answer. Top NFL teams this season based on margin of cover:

Team      ATS Record                                          ATS margin
San Francisco2-19.7
Green Bay3-09.3
NFL betting

 Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover:

Team      ATS Record                                           ATS margin
NY Giants0-3-15.5
Chicago 0-3-15
Cincinnati 0-2-1-9
Jacksonville 1-2-8.7
NFL sweat barometer

Damian Lillard Trade Makes Seismic Shift in NBA Title Odds

On Wednesday, September 27, the clock finally struck Dame Time.

Damian Lillard is headed to the Milwaukee Bucks, creating a “Big 2” with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the new NBA Championship favorite. 

SportsBetting updated its 2023-24 title odds as soon as the trade news broke, and the Bucks went from having the third-best chances to the favorites. 

Here’s a breakdown of the NBA Finals odds changes for all of the teams involved in the Damian Lillard blockbuster:

Bucks: +700 to +370

Suns: +800 to +600

Trail Blazers: +1000 to +2000

The best NBA plays in the world have gotten better. More selective outsourced bets this season from Joe Duffy at

2023-24 NBA Championship

Milwaukee Bucks                      +370

Denver Nuggets                        +500

Boston Celtics                           +525

Phoenix Suns                            +600

Los Angeles Lakers                    +1000

Golden State Warriors               +1200

Miami Heat                               +1600

Los Angeles Clippers                  +2000

Cleveland Cavaliers                   +2500

Dallas Mavericks                       +2500

Memphis Grizzlies                     +2500

Philadelphia 76ers                     +2500

Sacramento Kings                     +4000

New Orleans Pelicans                +5000

New York Knicks                        +5000

Oklahoma City Thunder             +6000

Minnesota Timberwolves          +7000

Atlanta Hawks                           +7500

San Antonio Spurs                     +8000

Brooklyn Nets                           +10000

Toronto Raptors                        +10000

Chicago Bulls                            +12500

Houston Rockets                       +12500

Indiana Pacers                          +15000

Orlando Magic                          +15000

Utah Jazz                                  +15000

Portland Trail Blazers                +20000

Detroit Pistons                          +25000

Washington Wizards                 +25000

Charlotte Hornets                     +30000 

Week 3 NFL Winning Bet From Hottest Handicapper in World And Best Tout in History

As we file this report, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 37-18 in football for the season, college and pro, starting with the HOF Game winner. Please see menu for latest update of winners. I have eight NFL sides, totals, plus a prop bet now at

Week 3 NFL free pick

NY JETS +9.5 Dallas

Week 2 is definitely about overreaction and teams off massive covers are a stunning 16-0 fade, just 3-13 SU under specific situations that apply in this game. Other full season regression angles apply as well. Of course nobody wants to bet on the stiff QB the Jets have, nor bet against the Cowboys who looked like the best team in the league last week. That’s what gives this team value. 

Pro Gamblers Sweep Again and Again; The Gap Between Sharps and Squares Has Never Been Larger

Pro gamblers keep rolling. Joe Duffy’s Picks went 4-0 last night and thanks to pro gambler metrics now 37-18 football, college and NFL going back to preseason. A combination of pro systems, best simulators and models, contrarian intel, and outsourced picks from “organic” betting pros, this is what whales all over the world got last night at     



MINNESOTA +7.5 Philadelphia

We have several overreaction angles relative to week 1 results, including one that is 67.5 percent, another is 163-110. 



NAVY +14.5 Memphis 

Big conference road dogs in a game the oddsmakers say will be low scoring is 436-321-21. 



MILWAUKEE (HOUSER +102) Miami (Perez)

The model’s simulation average moneyline probability of 62.0% is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 50.98. 

Minnesota-White Sox OVER 9.5 (Maeda-Urena)

We have angles that compare total to season to date averages for pitcher, team, and also recent play for each. A combo angle in which all apply goes over at a rate of 56.8 percent with thousands in the sample size and it is up for 2023. 

Week 1 NFL Betting Splits, Line Moves, Public Betting, Contrarian

Duffy 18-9 NFL inc preseason, 34-18 all football this season. 8 NFL sides, totals plus 8 prop bets at

Week 1 NFL betting splits 

🏈Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Washington

🏈Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Atlanta, Tennessee 

🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Tennessee, Cleveland 

🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Minnesota -7 to -5

NFL Week 1 Winning Bet

It is week 1 of NFL and the bets are up. Joe Duffy and the pro bettors nailed Detroit Thursday as Duffy improves to 18-9 since preseason. We are up to seven NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy.2 Sunday NFL player props added at

Week 1 NFL Free Pick

HOUSTON +9.5 Baltimore 

Week 1 teams that missed playoff previous season versus opponent that made the playoffs is 85-56-2. Squares hate 9.5 but under this system is is 6-0 and at 9 or 9.5 it is 9-1. There is a bizarre fear of 9.5 because of 10 being a key number and people think it’s one of the worst numbers in sports, but covers in all situations at 54.5 percent all-time as opposed to 10 at just 50.5. 

This is one of those that could easily become a premium bet as of my few sharps has Houston with nobody on Baltimore. 

Sharp Versus Square Bets Sept 9 College Football

Who the public is betting on September 9, 2023

Joe Duffy, a nice 28-13 start to football season! Saturday, Non-Conference Game of the Year among 5 Wise Guys, 2 Majors. Get the picks now 

🏈Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: UConn, Missouri 

🏈Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Sam Houston, FAU, Memphis

🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arizona State, UNLV, SMU

🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Syracuse -21 to -25, UNC -16 to -19.5, Liberty -9.5 to -13

Week 1 NFL Fantasy Football Betting Prop Stats

Joe Duffy’s Picks, already the best NFL handicapper ever, has added prop bets to the arsenal at Here are free prop trends. ALL records are single game props. 

Fantasy football QB props

  • Justin Fields under 16-9 in passing yards, under 16-6 passing attempts
  • Daniel Jones under 17-8 in passing yards, under 20-9 interceptions
  • Ryan Tannehill under 18-8 pass completions 
  • Dak Prescott over 19-10 interceptions 
  • Kenny Pickett under 9-3 interceptions, under 10-2 TD passes 
  • Trevor Lawrence under 25-11 TD passes
  • Lamar Jackson under 18-6 TD passes
  • Geno Smith over 14-7 TD passes
  • Baker Mayfield under 16-8 TD passes
  • Brock Purdy over 6-1 TD passes

Best NFL Picks Week 1

Joe Duffy’s Picks  We are up to seven NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy.2 Sunday NFL player props added. Oh Joe Duffy is 28-12 this football season at  

Fantasy football rushing props

  • Nick Chubb over 21-9 rushing yards
  • Tua Tagovailoa under 15-5 rushing yards
  • Justin Fields over 17-8 rushing yards
  • Brian Robinson Jr. over 9-2 rushing yards 
  • Joe Mixon under 17-7 rushing yards 
  • Josh Jacobs over 22-10 rushing+receiving yards
  • Christian McCaffrey over 18-7 rushing+receiving yards 
  • Tony Pollard over 22-11 rushing+receiving yards 

Fantasy football receiving props 

  • Jamal Williams under 16-4 receiving yards 
  • Chase Claypool under 19-9 receiving yards
  • Josh Jacobs over 21-11 receiving yards
  • Kadarius Toney under 11-1 receiving yards
  • Christian Kirk over 24-10 receptions
  • Jaylen Waddle under 12-3 receptions
  • Van Jefferson under 15-5 receptions
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Week 2 College Football Betting Lock

There will likely be more picks added but at press time, Joe Duffy’s Picks continues to humiliate the bookies. Oh all I am is 27-12 this football season. Saturday, Non-Conference Game of the Year among 5 Wise Guys, 2 Majors. First 4 NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy all at Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. 


SAM HOUSTON STATE +14.5 at MYBookie to Air Force 

This is one of those picks that could possibly be elevated to premium play, but not just yet. Only 37.5 points is expected to be scored in this game, making the 14.5 loom that much larger. I have an angle that says to go with a large underdog in a game anticipated to be low-scoring is 238-188-13.

Also, after an audit, we told you I am weighing some of my outsources a little heavier. When my “organic” trusted sources agree with my computer systems, the winning is insane and one of the few sharps who wins consistently in college football has my back here. 

It’s not a premium play at least yet because the quoted system isn’t as good as other ones using different parameters, but the same philosophy. This is in part due to the fact the better versions of this angle have held up even better in recent years. Also, the fact it is an early public bet has kept it from the premium threshold. But stay tuned depending on further corroboration. 

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