Tag Archives: sports betting

Inside Info NBA Betting, MLB Injuries, Weather; Free Sports Pick

From Joe Duffy, get eight winning Wise Guy bets among 11 winners. This includes a mind-boggling system that is 751 units on the plus side. This is literally the greatest betting system known to mankind based on units won. Get the picks now

Tampa-Boston UNDER 9 (Snell-Godley)

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 2890-2277-271.

MLB injuries

  • Ronald Acuna is questionable for Braves. The superstar is having an okay season for Atlanta hitting .258 with 4 HR and 9 RBI
  • Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun is back from injury
  • 3B Yoan Moncada will not start. He is hitting .278 with 3 HR and 7 RBI
  • Detroit’s Austin Romine not in starting lineup. C is averaging .308 with 2 HR and 9 RBI
  • JaCoby Jones is not in lineup for Detroit with 5 HR and 12 RBI
  • Cleveland winds blowing in at 11 mph
  • Houston wind blowing to centerfield at 11 mph

NBA injuries

  • Pacers G Victor Oladipo is questionable for Pacers. He averages 14.4 points per game, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists
  • Pacers forward T.J. Warren, who has become bubble star is 19.8 points per game, 4.2 rebounds
  • OKC’s Dennis Schroder 18.9 points per game, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists
  • OKC’s Danilo Gallinari is expected to return. He averages 19.1 points per game, 5.3 rebounds

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Square Bettors: Stop Making This Inane Blunder, You Know You Are

There are ceaseless illustrations of how counterintuitive understanding is one of the potent tools of the sharp player. This prose is neither my first nor last story that shares formulas befitting under the classification of winning sports systems that are contrary to expectation.

If I had .01 bitcoin for every time I’ve heard the canard about isolating teams that are much better on the road than they are at home and ride this dichotomy, I’d be a bitcoin millionaire. Okay, maybe hyperbole in an article refuting urban legends was over-the-top but grant me some literary license.

To illustrate, let’s say a team is 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 12 points per game, yet 0-6 SU and ATS on the road, losing by an average of 12 points per game, the “angle” would command to bet them at home and against them on the road.

I positively identify Sportsbook Review to be valuable for a lot of information, but this is as emblematic of square falsities of an article ever scripted about fabled home/road dichotomy. Correcting the grammar, which was every bit as inept as the claim, “The numbers don’t lie, brother, and it’s never a bad idea to really focus on bets when good home teams play bad road teams,” urging us to bet the home teams, while using inductive, not deductive evidence. As said prevarication was written about baseball, let’s commence on MLB wagering.

When a home team has a home winning percentage a whopping .490 better than the visitors away winning percentage, it must be a lock to unload on the home team? Not so fast. Under those exact parameters, the home team is 416-403, but for -144.22 units. With the juice and betting against the splits wins 96.16 units, said vig accounting for the variance in betting for and against the assumption.

When a home underdog has a home winning percentage of .150 or better than their opponent’s away winning percentage, going with the home puppy with great splits would be a good wager, correct? Conventional logic and the clones who regurgitate the same “home/road dichotomy” theory would scream yes. #FakeNews. The away favorite with inferior splits is +61.49 units and even better on the runline at +78.8 for 7.3 ROI.

Ah, but indubitably employing home/road dichotomy triumphs in the NBA, correct? Maddux Sports says so. “Consider the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Effect. This is the team that cannot be beaten at home and cannot win on the road. They exist, and you should bet on them when at home and also bet against them when on the road until the NBA oddsmakers make a home/road dichotomy adjustment.”

When a team is a home underdog of five or more in defiance of their home winning percentage being .110 or higher than the chalk’s away winning percentage has to be a gift from heaven, right? Risk with them on the money line will have high returns the folk tale would strongly insinuate. Nope, such teams are 75-200 straight up and 124-165-6 against the spread the factual data rejoins.

The reasons the oxymoronic “conventional logic” keeps the bookies prosperous and fully financed for us sharks is rudimentary. Oddsmakers comprehend public proclivities and modify accordingly. Bookies and sharps zig, while most bettors zag. But history bears witness to the fact considerable home/road splits are an outlier. Regression towards the standard home court/field advantage occurs more times than not.

Jekyll and Hyde (as so far as utterly different at home than on the road) teams are genuinely an aberration. You can bet on it.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the one-stop shop for best sports picks and vetted sportsbooks. Follow him on Twitter @OffshoreInsider His mastery of advanced analytics is why he has been a full-time gambler and handicapper since 1988. Theories are tested, enabling facts to supersede bias. Check out his sports betting YouTube channel

Thursday Night Football Betting Inside Info Rams-49ers, Temple vs. USF

Here is gambling intel on the Thursday night college and NFL portfolio. JDP goes 8-3 in college football last week. Actually 8-2-1 for most of you, but we are counting Texas Tech as a loss. The Lions on MNF make us 37-19 going back to preseason.  Thursday NFL and college football picks for another sweep. Get the picks now

ESPN’s Outside the Lines and Top Handicapper Exposes DFS and Sports Betting Hypocrisy

ESPN’s Outside the Lines dips into sports betting podcast territory by exposing the hypocrisy and political expediency of the professional sports leagues.


Meanwhile, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy destroys any and all arguments about whether or not DFS is gambling and if sports betting is skilled based.


Duffy is CEO of the top sports picks website.

The Power of 620 Sports Services With All of Your Sports Betting

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We not only focus on
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college conference play is where regional and conference specialists rise to
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Shark (Pac-10, Mountain West, WAC).

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We are part of the OffshoreInsiders.com handicapping
network. Have you checked out the super popular
Gambling News
section? It focuses on breaking news on your right to bet online and other key
industry news.

We also hand pick (no news aggregator) the best articles
and game previews from the standpoint of the sports bettor with Sports Betting
taken from hometown newspapers and the team’s own websites.

We have everything you need. As an example get NBA Live Odds,
Chalk Gaming NBA
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Central Michigan-Purdue Betting Preview

Central Michigan takes on Purdue in
the Motor City
bowl. The Boilermakers are an eight-point favorite with a total of 71.5-72, so
shop around at our vetted sportsbooks.

Taken from our sports betting
from articles around the Internet, Purdue players have expressed
how they want to go out on a high note after losing their final three regular
season games including to rival Indiana (a GodsTips.com
Wise Guy winner for sports bettors.

This is a rare bowl rematch as Purdue crushed the
Chippewas 45-22 back on Sept. 23.

The Bowl
told you that offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched
statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets
27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2
more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per
attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more
passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but
not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7
fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper
hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less
passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than
CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly

CMU went 7-2 straight up down the stretch and 5-3-1 against the spread during that
span. They also exceeded the total in seven of their last eight. Purdue went
3-6 against the spread to close out the regular season, including three
straight losses outright.


NCAA Condemns Betting While Fixing Their Bets

The NCAA has long taken a harsh anti-gambling stance. They
have a well-orchestrated “Don’t Bet on It” campaign including a website

Yet, the phony organization has a $100 million gamble and
has fixed the outcome to ensure they will not lose the money they anted. The NCAA, in conjunction with their
mega-million dollar betting syndicate of six BCS conferences, college
presidents and the television networks, created the BCS 11 years ago. Topping
the list of goals of the sweepstakes is to come up with a true national
championship game.

The quandary is, ala ice skating, that the participants
are determined by a very subjective equation that consists of judges in two
polls and the computer average of six ranking systems. The compilation results
in a point system that ranks each team, with the top two meeting to determine a

However, the many imperfections of the method allows for
the possibility that the NCAA could lose their bet. The winner of that alleged
championship game may not wind up with the most BCS points when the point
system was applied after the bowl games.

The new calculations could produce a top ranked team that did
not even participate in the BCS Championship game. We saw an example of that
when LSU earned a spot in this year’s game, leapfrogging a Virginia Tech team
that won and a Georgia squad that did not play because they already finished
their season.

There are endless scenarios in which the victor of Ohio
State-LSU could also be leapfrogged. For example, LSU supporters point out that
both of the Tigers losses were in overtime, hence their setbacks should be
weighted less.

Okay, so what if the BCS Championship game also goes into
overtime, should that victory be weighted less, allowing impressive bowl wins
by Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia,
USC or Kansas to bypass them?

What if Hawaii
stuns Georgia
in impressive fashion? All of a sudden that sheds new light on their record and
validates them as the only undefeated team in the country.

Well aware of the nightmare scenario, the NCAA has fixed
the outcome. Coaches have as much right to vote their conscience as constituents
do in Cuban elections. Regardless of who a coach believes should be No. 1
following the postseason results, they are mandated to declare the winner of
the BCS’ gamble as champion. Is this not blatant shaving of the BCS’s own point

In fact, the Bowl Championship Series Rankings are not
even recalculated following the bowls. A true final poll could reveal the BCS
lost their wager. No problem, the NCAA comes up with a point system then
manipulates the ultimate outcome to guarantee there will be no undesired
results. If a player does that, it’s called point shaving. When the NCAA does
the same thing, they call it the Bowl Championship Series.

College athletes, visit the DontBetOnIt.org site.
Remember, when the NCAA informs you about all the evils of gambling and point
shaving, do as they say, not as they do.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com.
Make sure you are happy with the outcome of the college football bowls by
getting his GodsTips winning selections at OffshoreInsiders.com

NFL Injuries For November 25

The top handicapping experts of OffshoreInsiders.com
give you NFL injuries for fantasy football
players and sports bettors.


starting defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is a game
time decision.


Chiefs running back Larry Johnson
is out. Of course his back-up Priest Holmes retired.


The Seahawks wide receiver D.J.
Hackett is very probable. Running back Shaun Alexander is out again. Quarterback
Matt Hasselbeck missed practice early in the week, but will likely play with
bruised ribs.


Will superstar Adrian Peterson make his return for Minnesota?
Not likely tells Cy McCormick of the online betting
syndicate MasterLockLine.com. Peterson is very doubtful.

Reports say the Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress’
ankle has gotten worse and will be limited. The huge story is long-time scorephone
sports handicapping expert Sean Michaels is the No. 1 football handicapper this
year. The NFL Game of the Year goes from him on the Vikings-Giants game. He’s
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Buffalo star
running back Marshawn Lynch is out.


The Saints running back Reggie Bush most likely gets the
start but a final decision will be made during warm-ups. Panthers quarterback
Vinny Testaverde was added to the injury list after his back tightened up. His
status will also be determined after warm-ups. Stiff David Carr is available.


The Ravens are without starting quarterback Steve McNair
and tight end Todd Heap. Cornerback Chris McAlister is a game time decision.


The founder of forensic handicapping Stevie Vincent is on a
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Denver has
some serious issues at running back. Running back Travis Henry is out and Selvin Young is a game time decision.


Eagles signal caller Donovan McNabb it out. A.J. Feeley
gets the start. The top sports service on the planet, GodsTips has a rare total
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Wide receiver James Thrash it out for the Skins.

VegasInsider Betting Info

We will update NFL injuries in the morning for fantasy football and
pointspread handicappers. For anyone who is ready to beat the sportsbooks
and who handicaps the NFL on their own we preesnet
the NFL betting information compiled by sports betting expert Joe Duffy
and Mike Godsey, the top NFL handicapper, each of GodsTips.com


The Cardinals win last week not only was another easy
winner as GodsTips NFL Game of the Year, but it snapped their three-game
straight up losing streak. Arizona
has lost 8-of-9 to the AFC, but their only win was in Week 4 to Pittsburgh.
That game was one of the few moneyline releases GodsTips has had this year, a
huge +270 winner.

Cincinnati is
10-3 outright in their last 13 to the NFC. Though they are 1-4 on the road this
season, the Bengals are 2-2 at home. For those who bet fourth quarter sides and
totals, note that surprisingly, the Cardinals lead the conference and are
second overall to New England with 85 fourth quarter

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Baltimore has
won four straight at home in the series by a combined 103-46. The Ravens though
enter with a three-game losing streak, putting up just seven points each of the last two weeks. Kyle
Boller gets the start for Baltimore
at QB as Steve McNair is out.

The founder of forensic
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In one of the strangest stats in the NFL, the road team is
9-1 straight up and against the spread in the Panthers games. Green
has won 12-of-13 going back to the end of last


The Saints had their four-game winning streak snapped last
week losing at home to the St. Louis Rams. They are 1-5 their last six to the

Houston is off
a bye, but is 1-4 straight up following the week off. Houston
is 1-5 at home to the AFC. This is a Houston
defense that allowed just 80 yards
per game on the ground in their first four games, but 159.6 in their last five.


Kansas City
has won two straight road games and in fact the road team is 5-1 straight up in
their last six. The Colts have gone from thinking 16-0 to trying to stop a
two-game losing streak. However, the Colts are probably much better than their
record as their six wins are by an average of 17.4 and their two losses by 3.0.

Brody Croyle will likely get the
start at QB for the Chiefs this season. We will double check key injuries in
the morning at OffshoreInsiders.com


After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have squeezed out four
wins in their last five. Jacksonville
is expected to get back quarterback David Garrard. GodsTips, the premier NFL
service of all time, has the AFC Game of the Year on this game. Last week, the NFL Game of the Year won when Arizona
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Oakland is
17-56 straight up since going to the Super Bowl, the worst record in that span.
All-everything running back Adrian Peterson is out for Minnesota.
Minnesota is 1-7 their last eight
to the AFC. The only win though was this year to San Diego,
which just so happened to be GodsTips NFL Upset of the Year. GodsTips is the
anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com and
widely accepted as the top NFL sports service of all time.

In starting out 2-2, the Raiders averaged scoring 25.5
points per game. Since then, they’ve lost five straight averaging 11.2 points
per game.


The Giants must bounce back after their six-game winning
streak has snapped when Dallas beat
them by double digits at home. There is a clear-cut reason the Giants are
playing better. In five games since returning from an injury, Giants running
back Brandon Jacobs is averaging 103.8
, three times passing the century mark.

Detroit has
had a three-game winning streak at Arizona
snapped. Sharp players knew that was coming and cleaned the sportsbooks as it was the NFL Game of
the Year on the Cardinals from the top sports betting service in the world, GodsTips.com

Detroit has
won both meetings this century by a combined 25 points. Detroit
is 4-0 at home.


Tampa is off a
bye week, but they are only 6-12 straight up following a week off. Atlanta
won both games last year in the series by a combined 31-9. Tampa
still holds a 5-2 straight up edge in Hotlanta. Atlanta
enters with a two-game winning streak.


Miami is
winless in nine games, but five losses are by three points. The Fins though are
6-3 outright on the road to the other conference since 2003.


The 7-2 Steelers are on a three-game winning streak. Pittsburgh
is 17-2 all-time to the Jets. This includes postseason play. They’ve held the
Jets to an average of 5.6 points in the last seven meetings.


has alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, meaning they are
“due” for a win. For those who bet quarter lines, note that Dallas
far and away leads the NFL with 104 points in the third quarter, 34 more than
the No. 2 team Indianapolis.


St. Louis is
off their first win of the year. After averaging 11.3 points per game in their
fist seven games, they’ve averaged 28.5 the last two.

After a 2-0 start, the Niners
have lost seven in a row. The 49ers are 15-42 straight up going back to 2004.


Chicago has
won three straight road games. The road team is 5-0 in their last five games. Chicago
won both games last year (including postseason). Running back Shaun Alexander
is out for Seattle.


The undefeated Patriots are off a bye week. They have won
12 straight regular season games since last year. Guess who has the second
longest winning streak in the conference at four? It’s the Bills.

Don’t look for Buffalo
to win this one though. New England is on an 8-0 tear in
the series by a combined 232-76.

Controversies and Scandals Have Lessons in Handicapping

Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major
scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they
can be summed up in what we preach time and time again. The key to successful sports betting is
getting an edge as often as possible.

This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive
about the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise
every source to get the accurate lowdown.

Coaches believe the more he knows about the injury status
of his and his opponent’s key players, the more of an edge his team will get.
It’s the same way with gamblers against their sportsbook opponent.

It’s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of
disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy and likely soon-to-be former Texas A&M football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant.
Investing is sports scores is much like Wall Street betting. “Inside
information” that coaches and refs have access to is the sports broker’s
version of insider trading.

So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don’t
get the state’s evidence directly from a coach or referee that we are out of
luck? The answer is absolutely not. “Inside” information is far from the only
way to get the upper hand on betting the odds.

A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because
information is public does not mean it’s widely circulated.

So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the
odds have been posted, often somewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in
response. We’ve long touted Google News as our favorite aggregator of sports
betting information such as injuries, expert analysis on how teams match up,
motivation recognition and other very useful bullet points.

However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to
compete with Google News. Replacing their “Sitelines” section, ESPN has
partnered with Topix to create “ESPN local”. This new feature aggregates
articles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google
News still reigns supreme, but the ESPN/Topix synergy has potential for the

We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an
example of a coach pulling out all the stops to get the leg up on the
competition or more accurately to counter the eminence of their foe.

finally ended Florida’s series
domination in college football. In said game, the Bulldogs had a choreographed
excessive celebration penalty after their first touchdown. Head coach Mark
Richt admitted he told the team, “I expect you guys to celebrate to the point
where the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.”

Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his
team because he felt they needed to play with more passion. He did not
specifically verify, but we strongly suspect that the fact that Florida
had won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1.

The handicapping ramifications are to never underestimate
the importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players
on both Florida and Georgia
were being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gone
through several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly
Richt knew that a well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one
team and a “culture of losing” from the other.

Sports bettors should not completely disregard historical
data even if the period precedes every player and coach who will affect that
outcome of the game being handicapped. I honestly believe if Georgia
had the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the need to manufacture boastfulness
and confidence.

Then there was the short-lived, though periodic
speculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home
games. For our purposes, the veracity of these accusations is not as relevant
as the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if the Colts are bending

Again, crowd noise can give a home team—we will say it
again—“the edge”. Few coaches or players will dispute the affect of the “12th
man” in football or the “6th man” in basketball.

This is why we love it when we read that a team has for
example “only the third sellout in two years” or that the small town mayor held
a noon pep rally the day of a big

Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be
affected by a pep rally, but such seemingly innocuous events are symptoms of
how significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going
to be.

In college, we always keep an eye out for when the
non-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student
body is on winter break. The level of home court and home field advantage is
fluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower profile schools where
sellouts are far from a given.

What the average gambler takes for granted, the sharp
player yearns for. No edge is too banal for smart money players. Best of all, one
need not always have access to a private booster newsletter or collude with a
rogue official. So often the most indispensable information to the gambler can
be in the fourth paragraph of a squad’s hometown newspaper or within the official
team press release.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the
Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
the premier hub of world-class handicappers and free sports betting