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The 5-2 record does not tell the story as it includes 2-0 with Wise Guys plus the first of many money line underdogs wins with Washington +145. as Joe Duffy’s Picks has dominated the NFL since the mid-1980s scorephone days more than any handicapper has in any sport.
TAMPA +10 -115 New Orleans
We are honored to continue getting new clients. Here is one of our secrets to NFL handicapping: we successfully know when to bet on unpredictability. Jameis Winston was drafted No. 1 for a reason. After being completely outplayed by Marcus Mariota in opening week, we look for the resiliency that made Shame Us one of the all-time great college QBs. The tea leaves indicate Mike Evans should return at WR, a huge boost. Still 10 points is too much against a Saints team that lost stud TE Jimmy Graham in a trade.
Not shockingly, underdogs of 4.5 or more off a loss of 28 or more is 123-78-5 for 61.2 percent.
CLEVELAND +1.5 Tennessee
Home Underdog Game of the Year
I am just not buying it at all. Of course Marcus Mariota made one of the most impressive debuts in NFL history. If you think he will not have bouts of inconsistency in his rookie year, especially following up a great game, then bet on the Tits now on the Super Bowl futures. Oh I am definitely betting on him to come down to earth playing his second straight road game.
Here is what I am buying: Johnny Manziel has tried to turn if life around and at least short-term will breathe life into this terrible offense. How is losing Josh McCown, the worst starting QB in the league, a drop off?
Manziel has taken all first-team reps this week. He has been reading his own press clippings and they have not been very good. A talented, humbled, a more mature J Football will seize the opportunity.
CINCINNATI -3 -118 San Diego
Philip Rivers has a long history of following up great games with a thud. In the greatest comeback at home in team history, the Chargers rallied from an 18 point deficit in the first half for a remarkable 33-28 victory over the Detroit Lions. He enters this game with 20 straight completions, but if he has the ability to sustain momentum, he would be a slam-dunk Hall-of-Famer.
Now that he hits the road against a talented defense, he is all but assured of a thud. I am no big fan of Andy Dalton, but he is much less likely to give a game away than Matt Stafford on the road.
BUFFALO +1 New England
Contrary to popular belief, Bill Belichick has not done all that well to young QBs. The theory being his alleged genius is have a lot of film to study, something he does not have with Tyrod Taylor.
In 2013, the Jets lost to the Patriots 13-10 and beat them 30-27, in what were Geno Smith second and seventh career starts. Also in 2013, the Patriots barely beat EJ Manuel and the Bills, winning 23-21 in what was Manuel first career start.
If defense wins, the home dog is a lock because they have the superior defense. Rex Ryan is a great short-term fix. Yes his act wears thin, but that is down the road. The short-term effect of a new coach and a new QB is more than enough for the outright win.
DETROIT +2 Minnesota
Matt Stafford predictably unpredictable hence off 19-30 with 2 int, history says he will rebound with good effort. He already plays well to Nordic Explorers with aTD-INT ration of 14-4 vs. the Vikings.
Teddy Bridgewater goes hunter to hunted. Yes he improved late in season, but second-year QB is perfect candidate to regress.
His worst game in 2014, as measured by passer rating, was at home against the Lions when he was intercepted three times, was sacked eight times and lost a fumble. The Vikings are overvalued overall and Detroit is undervalued in this spot.
PITTSBURGH -6.5 San Francisco
What a tough spot for the Niners off a late MNF traveling 2260 miles and playing at 10 PST. Bet against team off win as home underdogs is 367-270-18.
This is a much better offense that San Francisco beat last week. We will grant you that Pittsburgh perhaps has too much rest off opening up on Thursday. Still the travel, short week, west coast body clock should mean Pittsburgh owns the game late.
WASHINGTON +145 St. Louis
This is on the moneyline. Going against road team off win as home underdogs +117.8 units.
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