Pittsburgh vs. Utah Huge Bet
By JoeDuffy.net Administrator
From ScoresOddsPicks.com is a preview of Pittsburgh and Utah. The big play on this game is from Big Red. It’s the strongest game on college football schedule tonight for sure.
The No. 15 Pittsburgh Panthers are hoping for a big season—possibly even a BCS Bowl appearance if all goes according to plan. The schedule certainly doesn’t have any breaks early on, though, as the Panthers are underdogs on college football odds to open the season; Utah is favored by 2.5 points in this match up.
No. 15 Pittsburgh at Utah (-2.5) – Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET (Versus)
Despite winning 10 games last year, it was a large disappointment for Pittsburgh; the team settled for a victory over North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Everything fell apart in the season finale, when Pitt blew a 21-point lead to Cincinnati. Now, though, the Panthers are optimistic they have what it takes to get it done.
Dion Lewis is the centerpiece of the offense. He exploded for 1799 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman, and he’ll be the bell cow once again. The big-play threat might have to do a lot of the work by himself, though, as the line is inexperienced. The quarterback situation also isn’t particularly sound, with both Tino Sunseri and Pat Bostick vying for time. Lewis and receiver Jonathan Baldwin are being counted on to have massive seasons.
Pittsburgh’s defense features two dynamite ends in Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. Their play will be crucial against Utah’s spread offense. The line is breaking in two new defensive tackles but there’s enough depth here to get the job done.
Quarterback Jordan Wynn didn’t start a ton of games for Utah last season but, when he did, he was fantastic, averaging about 250 yards per game. Now a sophomore, he’s poised to lead Utah’s spread offense to the next level. The Utes have a fine power running game to compliment the pass, led by Eddie Wide (1069 yards last year). Matt Asiata, who was penciled in as the starter ahead of Wide last season, is also back in the mix.
Utah has two solid defensive tackles in Sealver Siliga and Dave Kruger, which should help at least slow Dion Lewis. The ends are solid too, making for a formidable front. The defensive backs are the real weak spot, though Pitt probably won’t throw the ball a ton on Thursday.
Both teams are gearing up for what they hope are breakthrough seasons. Lewis is a superstar in the making and, while Utah has a great line to slow him down, the running back will still draw plenty of attention. That will allow Baldwin to run free, much like he did last year en route to 1111 yards and eight scores.
Top expert pick on this game: The biggest outlaw book in the southeast is “Catfish Parker”. He also is in constant contact with his colleagues from around the nation. Nobody has a better pulse on where “outlaw money” is going. At 4:03 ET he says there is big, big time local strong “local” money (not tracked by offshore or Vegas books) on the Pittsburgh-Utah national TV side.
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September 2nd, 2010
Other MasterLockLine Sports Service Picks Free in Football
By JoeDuffy.net Administrator
BettorsAdvice.com in conjunction with the Power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine will pass along some free sports service picks that do not rise to the level of “biggest plays from the best handicappers in their highest rated sports.”
They are generally picks from handicappers whose hype exceeds the actual record such as Right Angle Sports, Mark Lawrence, Wayne Root, Brandon Lang, Doc’s Enterprises, Dr. Bob Stole.
These are bonus picks and only premium picks count on the MasterLockLine’s record. They will continue to base premium picks on performance only and the likelihood to win, not on potential sales from bigger named handicappers.
NFL Fantasy Football Props: Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers
By JoeDuffy.net Administrator
Yesterday, we discussed common NFL betting player props like predicting the NFL’s yardage leaders in passing, receiving and rushing. Today’s let’s look at a different kind of prop: head-to-head player props.
These props pit two players (usually at the same position) against each other; bettors can predict who will outperform the other in a specific stat category. Here’s a look at some NFL quarterback touchdown pass head-to-heads for 2010 – with a sports betting blog pick included for each.
Aaron Rodgers vs Drew Brees (-3)
As much as Drew Brees racks up offensive numbers, Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s just as good. Brees threw for 34 scores last season; he’s hit that mark two years in a row, setting a career high. But whereas it took Brees until his seventh NFL season as a starter to throw 30 TD passes, Rodgers did it in his second. Rodgers appears to have a higher ceiling. I think he’ll top Brees this year.
Free pick: Rodgers +3
Peyton Manning (-5) vs Tony Romo
Love Romo on this one. Manning and Romo already posted fairly comparable passing stats last year. This season, Romo is playing in the best offense he’s ever had around him. Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, Marion Barber, Roy Williams – he has tons of viable weapons. I think Romo will explode into MVP consideration this year, so staying within five touchdown passes of Manning seems very doable.
Free pick: Romo +5
Jay Cutler vs Tom Brady (-2.5)
Sports betting players should be careful not to overthink this one. Yes, Cutler should have a breakout season under new offensive co-ordinator “Mad” Mike Maritz. But I see that translating into mega passing yards, not mega touchdowns. Cutler will still turn over the ball too much to pass the far more efficient Brady in touchdown passes.
Free pick: Brady -2.5
Brett Favre vs Matt Schaub (-2)
I’m somewhat bearish on Favre this year. He’s another year older and two of his favorite targets, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, are major health concerns. Rice is already out at least half the season with hip surgery and Harvin hasn’t solved his migraine woes yet. Favre could regress statistically whereas Matt Schaub, who led the NFL in passing yards last year, is only getting better.
Free pick: Schaub -2
Pac-10 Preview From Bodog Sportsbook
By JoeDuffy.net Administrator
Oh baby, Bodog has the college football lines up for week one. They also preview the Pac-10.
Oregon is the favorite on NCAA football odds in the Pac-10 this season. Can USC get back on track after losing head coach Pete Carroll to the NFL? This is our Pac-10 Conference overview.
The Ducks have 5/2 odds to earn the Pac-10 title. Oregon is loaded on offense, particularly with an impressive offensive line, but the defense leaves a bit to be desired. And while USC couldn’t prevent Carroll from leaving, it should be able to prevent offenses from moving the ball; the Trojans (8/1 Pac-10 odds) might have the best “D” in the conference.
Oregon State is also expected to contend with 3/1 odds to win the Pac-10. An electric running game should power the Beavers this season. The Washington Huskies, meanwhile, are interesting value picks with 9/2 odds and potential NFL star Jake Locker back under center.
Get your NCAA Football Odds in the Bodog Sportsbook! Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s expert take: Oregon, Southern Cal, Oregon State, Arizona, and Stanford in that order, are the powerhouses. Chic team Washington is not there yet.
Free Sports Picks
By JoeDuffy.net Administrator
Open up a new account at JustBet Sportsbook, tell them OffshoreInsiders.com sent you and get free picks from either forensic sports handicapping founder Stevie Vincent or power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine.
$300 deposit: get a free week
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Simply:
- Open a new account at JustBet
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- Email us at via the Contact Us form on OffshoreInsiders.com with your user name (don’t give us your password)
- Tell us whether you want Stevie Vincent or the MasterLockLine premium service
- Once we verify, we will send login info
Forensic Sports Handicapping
By JoeDuffy.net Administrator
A revolutionary sports service that experts say will change the landscape of sports betting is celebrating three plus years of unprecedented winning: Stevie Vincent’s BetOnSports360 which is exclusively part of OffshoreInsiders.com Stevie Vincent is the forefather of “forensic handicapping” based on the principal of forensic economics.
Already considered the leading authority on probability and statistics as it applies to sports gaming, Vincent took it a step further. Captivated by a research paper authored by a University of Pennsylvania professor who used forensic economics to argue a significant percentage of college basketball games were fixed, Vincent used data mining software and a web crawler unearthing consistent patterns of when teams were likely to cover or fail to cover the spread.
However, Vincent does not believe the anomalies are evidence of underworld influence, but proof that not only are there distinct patters of when a team will peak and bottom out, but forensic handicapping exploits when oddsmakers overuse recent data resulting in “overlays” or “underlays” (bad lines) by the oddsmakers. He also believes some off lines are intentional in anticipation of predictably inaccurate public perception.
Vincent’s research answers one of handicapping’s great mysteries: how to weigh long term versus short term data. “It depends, but it is now ascertainable how and when to evaluate the fluid variables” asserts Vincent.
In short, forensic handicapping evaluates data and detects the confluence of team, oddsmaker and public tendencies producing an end product being the most scientifically valid sports selections ever.
Vincent is former Executive Editor of the popular scorephone “Tailgate Parties” and has been a consultant to several top sports handicappers
BetOnSports360 on OffshoreInsiders.com takes sports betting into a new age with “forensic handicapping” using ground-breaking techniques employed successfully in other fields.
Sports Bettors Can Cash in Their Clunker Sports Handicapper
By Mike Godsey
The top sports
handicapping site in
OffshoreInsiders.com has announced Cash for Clunkers program for sports bettors
who purchased a lemon from inferior sports betting services.
“There are about 650 sports touts, handicappers, and
sports services out there. Only 40-50 or so turn a profit per season and less
than a dozen will for an entire year, all sports combined” explains
OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy,
only Grandmaster sports handicapper.
He continues, “We are going to allow the disenfranchised
bettor to get cream-of-the-crop selections without having to invest anymore
money.”
It’s pretty simple. Gamblers will trade in their login
information from their sports service and in return get MasterLockLine or
Stevie Vincent picks for the same duration or until Aug. 31, whichever comes
first.
“It’s win, win for everyone but the
Handicapper Stevie Vincent. Gamblers turn losing plays into winning plays and
we know once bettors see our product, we will develop a mutually profitable
relationship for years to come,” says Vincent matter-of-factly.
To trade their clunker handicapper for their choice of
world class services, the
or Stevie Vincent’s
gamblers simply follow these steps:
Email info@offshoreinsiders.com
with the login information to the clunker handicapper
Specify whether which sports service
MasterLockLine or Stevie Vincent it is being cashed in for
Often within minutes, receive login info for elite service
Restrictions:
Vincent or MasterLockLine password will last
until “cashed in” password stays active or Aug. 31, whichever comes first
Offer only good for current subscription. No
additional days are given for renewing “clunker” handicapper
There is no catch whatsoever. No credit card or payment
information is needed. OffshoreInsiders.com is confident enough “Cash for
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MLB Handicappers
By Mike Godsey
The 2009 MLB season is here and the best
premier betting site
The founder of forensic
handicapping, Stevie Vincent is without any debate the king of the
over/under in all sports, MLB betting included. Professional gamblers the world
over consider his baseball totals bets must-reads.
Long time gamblers remember Joe Duffy as “JD of the ACC”
when he became the top scorephone handicapper to ever live. When the telephone
scoreboards became a dinosaur, Duffy made the transition and teamed with
established Internet gambling pioneer Mike Godsey to form GodTips.
GodsTips is the king of the underdog and the small
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exactly as sharp bettors remember from the scorephone days. Duffy is also
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All the top MLB sports
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Betting On March Madness: NCAA Tournament Myths
By Mike Godsey
For the last several years we’ve touted Pete
Science as a valuable tool in Big Dance handicapping. While the science is
oriented towards forecasting the March Madness bracket pool, there are sundry
In fact, as our diverse range of regular clients have seen
us assert in our analysis—the dichotomous ATS and straight up game as an
example—handicapping is in large part the art of isolating overvalued and
undervalued teams.
The voluminous articles on Bracket Science are centered on
isolating characteristics of underachieving and overachieving teams in the NCAA
Tournament.
If there is a downside to this mechanism, the findings are
more corroborating my own experiences as a handicapper than enlightening me on
new angles. Rest assured that a large component of my success in the industry
since the 1980s is that I am quite swayable and have made many adjustments,
often debunking unfound theories of my fledgling early years.
Conversely, those who subscribe to sports betting’s
ultimate oxymoron “conventional logic” will have an epiphany upon reading the
findings with an open mind.
Possibly topping the lists of urban legends perpetuated by
hacks, talking heads, and bottom-rung handicappers alike is the pure poppycock
about betting on guard oriented teams.
As stated numerous times, a team’s strength is a commodity
and the less prevalent the commodity, the more value the resource is.
In a rare illustration in which “conventional logic” is
factually based, most baseball fans understand that possessing a shortstop
first baseball who can do the same. A power hitting middle infielder is a
scarcity—a rare commodity.
But the same gospel truth is abandoned elsewhere in
sports. For example in the NBA playoffs, it’s a statistical truism that scoring
decreases in the NBA playoffs as defensively intensity increases.
Yet “conventional logic” has Joeybagofdonuts victimized
into believing that somehow when scoring goes down defensive becomes more
paramount. False, a quick study proves that teams most adept at scoring
consistently in the half-court are beyond reproach the most victorious in
postseason NBA.
The same parallel universe applies to college basketball.
There are significantly more quality backcourts than frontcourts. Most teams
that fail to make the NCAA, flop in the first-round, or do not even quality for
the NIT are guard oriented.
Drinking the Kool-Aid, those who perpetuate the alternate
reality conclude that the preponderance of high caliber guard play and the
dearth of dominant big men makes the more prevalent guard oriented teams the
more cherished commodity. Basketball’s equivalent of the power hitting first
baseman has become more indispensable than the shortstop who can bat cleanup.
Poppycock, balderdash; it’s a pure betting urban legend.
The goal here is neither to bootleg Tiernan’s
research nor write an advertorial on his behalf, but one would be advised to
consult his work for his precise and standardized metrics for defining over and
underachieving.
His research concluded that since 1991, NCAA Tournament
teams get 52 percent of their points from guards. He also defines the last 24
years as the modern era and divides them into three eight-year periods. Of zero
surprise to us, but a revelation to countless, Tiernan
concludes, “In each eight-year period of the modern
era, the most frontcourt-dominant teams have overachieved,” and continuing,
“The most guard-dominant squads have never been overperformers
in any eight-year period of the 64-team era.” “Never” he said, no way, no how.
Using statistically overwhelming numbers to document his
conclusions he again corroborates what we’ve preached for decades, “if you look
at the average percentage of points that tourney advancers have gotten from
guards in each eight-year period of the modern era, you’ll find that deeper
advancers tend to be more frontcourt-oriented squads.”
Judge for yourself as the $20 he
charges for his research is pocket change for the bettor and we be paid back
ten-fold if utilized correctly.
Debunking the guard-play myth is just one of my
long-preached theories that have earned me the title of “Mr. March” and “Lord
of the Dance” that are validated by his 24-year study.
Because I am seamlessly converting his brainpower into
spread betting applications, the devil’s advocate could argue yours truly is
making some leaps of faith. I’d welcome counterpoints, but among the other theorems
authenticated not only by my quarter century of unprecedented winnings, but
also by Tiernan’s scholarly research are:
Straight up winning percentage is greatly
overplayed in handicapping. Scoring margin is the leading indictor
Bench play is extremely overvalued in Big Dance
handicapping. Note that the study is purely about the NCAA Tournament. We
assert that a deep bench is of great importance in the conference tournaments
but overrated in the Big Dance
Age and experience is
also overrated. “With each two-round advancement
in the tourney, teams get increasingly younger,” the study says.
The sportsbooks
thrive because “conventional logic” is too often a misnomer for “folklore” in
sports betting. Those who let facts guide their conclusions will continue to
prosper.
The author Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team of GodsTips,
anchor of
The above research is only a scintilla of the data “Mr. March” exploits en
route to being the winningest all-time
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