OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.

July 3, 2020

History Sale Celebrates Long-Awaited Return of Sports Betting

Filed under: Press Releases — Joe Duffy @ 9:06 AM

Sports are back and the biggest sale in history from the greatest sports service is available to celebrate.

  • Purchase now as subscription will not begin until MLB back July 23-24, NBA to shortly follow
  • Unprecedented times=biggest sale in OffshoreInsiders.com history
  • Every weekly package or longer doubled until August 1
  • Weekly, monthly, 100 day, even year
  • Joe Duffy, Stevie Vincent, MasterLockLine, Bet it Trinity
  • Yes monthly=62 days
  • Don’t worry about expiration date on site
  • All packages updated manually by end of night
  • Current clients will have days added
  • However many days were left on your subscription on March 11 is how many days left upon return
  • Example, you had 20 days left, purchase weekly; you’ll have 34 days
  • New, existing, and previous clients—everyone included
  • Literally biggest sale ever, but with “new normal” we want you back…or with us for the first time

Yes, it’s as straightforward as that, but should any clarification be necessary, use contact form on the site. To get down on the offer Get the picks now

May 22, 2019

Square Bettors: Stop Making This Inane Blunder, You Know You Are

There are ceaseless illustrations of how counterintuitive understanding is one of the potent tools of the sharp player. This prose is neither my first nor last story that shares formulas befitting under the classification of winning sports systems that are contrary to expectation.

If I had .01 bitcoin for every time I’ve heard the canard about isolating teams that are much better on the road than they are at home and ride this dichotomy, I’d be a bitcoin millionaire. Okay, maybe hyperbole in an article refuting urban legends was over-the-top but grant me some literary license.

To illustrate, let’s say a team is 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 12 points per game, yet 0-6 SU and ATS on the road, losing by an average of 12 points per game, the “angle” would command to bet them at home and against them on the road.

I positively identify Sportsbook Review to be valuable for a lot of information, but this is as emblematic of square falsities of an article ever scripted about fabled home/road dichotomy. Correcting the grammar, which was every bit as inept as the claim, “The numbers don’t lie, brother, and it’s never a bad idea to really focus on bets when good home teams play bad road teams,” urging us to bet the home teams, while using inductive, not deductive evidence. As said prevarication was written about baseball, let’s commence on MLB wagering.

When a home team has a home winning percentage a whopping .490 better than the visitors away winning percentage, it must be a lock to unload on the home team? Not so fast. Under those exact parameters, the home team is 416-403, but for -144.22 units. With the juice and betting against the splits wins 96.16 units, said vig accounting for the variance in betting for and against the assumption.

When a home underdog has a home winning percentage of .150 or better than their opponent’s away winning percentage, going with the home puppy with great splits would be a good wager, correct? Conventional logic and the clones who regurgitate the same “home/road dichotomy” theory would scream yes. #FakeNews. The away favorite with inferior splits is +61.49 units and even better on the runline at +78.8 for 7.3 ROI.

Ah, but indubitably employing home/road dichotomy triumphs in the NBA, correct? Maddux Sports says so. “Consider the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Effect. This is the team that cannot be beaten at home and cannot win on the road. They exist, and you should bet on them when at home and also bet against them when on the road until the NBA oddsmakers make a home/road dichotomy adjustment.”

When a team is a home underdog of five or more in defiance of their home winning percentage being .110 or higher than the chalk’s away winning percentage has to be a gift from heaven, right? Risk with them on the money line will have high returns the folk tale would strongly insinuate. Nope, such teams are 75-200 straight up and 124-165-6 against the spread the factual data rejoins.

The reasons the oxymoronic “conventional logic” keeps the bookies prosperous and fully financed for us sharks is rudimentary. Oddsmakers comprehend public proclivities and modify accordingly. Bookies and sharps zig, while most bettors zag. But history bears witness to the fact considerable home/road splits are an outlier. Regression towards the standard home court/field advantage occurs more times than not.

Jekyll and Hyde (as so far as utterly different at home than on the road) teams are genuinely an aberration. You can bet on it.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the one-stop shop for best sports picks and vetted sportsbooks. Follow him on Twitter @OffshoreInsider His mastery of advanced analytics is why he has been a full-time gambler and handicapper since 1988. Theories are tested, enabling facts to supersede bias. Check out his sports betting YouTube channel

December 20, 2018

Gasparilla Bowl Betting Info, Sharp Moves in Basketball Odds

Filed under: Press Releases,Sports Betting News — Tags: — Joe Duffy @ 4:53 PM

Marshall takes on South Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. Marshall is currently laying from -4 at BetOnline, home of the opening line to -4.5 at GTBets. The total is 51 across the board, though 50.5 in Vegas as some shops. Marshall has 65 percent of bets and 61 percent of the money, while 54 percent of bets and 67 percent of funds are on the under. That is rare as the public generally prefers betting overs. Winds may be a minor factor at 12 mph at kickoff but increasing to 16 mph as the game goes on. There is a 49 percent chance of rain at the opening, but any storms are expected to taper.

Marshall is 11-3 SU in bowls including six straight wins, 5-0 under mentor Doc Holliday with a double-digit margin of cover. Some may question South Florida’s motivation as they were an early frontrunner with rival Central Florida to be the top fly-in-the-ointment top non-power five team before the wheels fell off. 

Joe Duffy continues to make your Christmas merrier and is helping you pay of Hanukah bills! We do both in the Duffy family. We go 5-2 last night, including 4-0 NBA. Thursday, college football side and two NBA winners. One of the essential secrets of our success in dominating bowls is knowing big myths. Let’s say that helps us won tonight. Get the picks now

NBA sharp moves

The most significant public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Houston OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and most significant sportsbook liabilities: none

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: LA Clippers UNDER

The most significant line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

College basketball sharp moves

The most significant public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and most significant sportsbook liabilities: none

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: James Madison UNDER, Purdue UNDER

The most significant line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Ball State opened at -20, now -15.5 includes added rotation games you can wager on at Bet Now

 

 

November 14, 2018

11 Free College Football Winning Picks To Bet Now at BetNow

These are added rotation picks using same metrics Joe Duffy’s Picks has used to pick winners in the regular rotation games at OffshoreInsiders.com

Bet Now has ability to deposit, withdraw, and bet from any mobile device. Also get up to a 100 percent initial and reload bonus. All at Bet Now They are without question the best sportsbook for added rotation games in college football and basketball.

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet. MLB picks are based on pitchers unless otherwise noted.

Wise Guy

Jackson State-Alcorn State UNDER 42 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Youngstown State-Illinois State UNDER 39.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Jacksonville State-Kennesaw State UNDER 47.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Lamar-McNeese State UNDER 46 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

North Dakota-Northern Arizona UNDER 49.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

This is brought to you by DuffyGifts.com the place to go for gifts for all occasions from MyThirtyOne Gifts.

CS Sacramento-UC Davis OVER 68.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The over version goes over 901-705.

Monmouth-Garner Webb OVER 61 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Sam Houston State-Houston Baptist OVER 71.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

South Dakota State-South Dakota State OVER 72.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Eastern Illinois-SE Missouri State OVER 77 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

James Madison-Townson OVER 66.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Alert! Alert! Alert! MyBookie is now a 100% bonus up to $1000. Yes, hurry for a limited time! Deposit $1,000 and have $2,000 to bet now at MyBookie! This is the single biggest bonus ever offered from a thoroughly vetted sportsbook.

September 7, 2018

Carson Wentz Returns: Odds Set By Top Offshore Sportsbook BetDSI

Filed under: Press Releases — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 4:03 PM
BetDSI  is offering prop bets on when Carson Wentz will return to action for the Philadelphia Eagles, and the odds reflect a longer-than-expected absence.

“Our sources are confirming that Wentz will not only be out a few more weeks, but that it’s highly likely he won’t return until after Philly’s bye,” a BetDSI oddsmaker said. “There’s no reason to rush him back from injury when they have an advantageous early-season schedule and a competent backup quarterback.”

According to BetDSI oddsmakers, Wentz is only worth 3-4 points to a spread (depending on the opponent) because Nick Foles is his backup. However, if a player like Geno Smith or Blaine Gabbert was the backup, Wentz’s value would be higher.

Which week will Carson Wentz start for the Eagles?

Week 2, 3 or 4 (+450)

Week 5 (+500)

Week 6 (+750)

Week 7 (+750)

Week 8 (+1000)

Week 10 or later (+150)

Does not start in 2018 (+2500)

Eagles’ record when Carson Wentz makes first start (must start in reg. season for action)

Losing Record +600

Winning Record -1000

Eagles’ Super Bowl odds when Carson Wentz makes first start (must start in reg. season for action)

Over 8-1 (-115)

Under 8-1 (-115)

Joe Duffy, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com says Wentz will return as soon as the Eagles lose a game. He does not think they win the first four games, hence weeks 2-4 at +450 is the best at BetDSI

September 6, 2018

Kellyane Conway Authored NY Times Resistance Article: You Can Bet On It…Literally

Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Vice President Mike Pence are the most likely leakers in the New York Times bombshell editorial, “I Am Part of the Resistance” according to Bovada sportsbook. All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1.

Of course, the current “Deep Throat” may not be revealed for decades, but longshot Kellyanne Conway, whose husband is a noted Trump critic, is tempting at +500.

Who will be revealed to have written the “I am part of the resistance” New York Times Op-Ed? 

  • Jeff Sessions+250
  • Mike Pence+350
  • John Kelly+450
  • James Mattis+450
  • Nikki Haley+1000
  • Javanka+2000
  • Dan Coats+500
  • Don McGahn+1500
  • Melania Trump+5000
  • Donald Trump+2500
  • Kellyane Conway+5000

Bet now at Bovada

February 25, 2017

Official System Review of Trabeplom Betting System

Filed under: Sports Gambling Strategy Articles — Joe Duffy @ 1:28 PM

Is Trabeplom betting system a scam or for real? Get a slideshow breakdown.

Trabeplom system review from Joe Duffy

For actual winning picks however, this is your every day stop

May 22, 2015

This is Why Elite Gamblers Win Year and and Year Out in Every Sport

Filed under: Press Releases — Joe Duffy @ 10:19 PM

Big day Thursday off a fantastic portfolio Wednesday. Approaching our 27th anniversary with Joe Duffy’s best public, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 10-4 the last 14 including the Game of the Month at +163 on Texas. So, do you still want to be on the outside looking on or are you sick and tired of settling?

NBA

Wise Guy

CLEVELAND +2 Atlanta

It looks like DeMarre Carroll will play. If anything, I was worried that Atlanta would rally around the injury and pull out a win. Truthfully if Carroll is ruled out and the line swings to -2 the other way, I will middle the game. So grab Cleveland at the widely available +2.

Cavs are easily the better team and the run Atlanta made at the end masked it. It is only a matter of whether or not a nice middle opportunity comes up.

MLB

Wise Guy

TEXAS (LEWIS +163) NY Yankees (Pineda)

AL Game of the Month

The Yankees are 1-7 the last eight. They have has a slugging percentage of just .300 the last seven. Colby Lewis has an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP Of 1.120 for the season. On the road it is a staggering 2.55 and 1.216.

Texas has a slugging percentage edge of .152 higher in their last five games. Texas is 11-1 road versus an opponent with a winning home record.

NHL

Major

TAMPA -130 NY Rangers

Tampa has taken control of the series and now Henrik Lundqvist has gone from the rock of the team to sieve. NY has no answer for the Lightening top line. We may see a multiple goal win here.

May 21, 2015

Yet Another Miserable and Hot Summer For Bookmakers

Filed under: Press Releases — Joe Duffy @ 10:46 PM

Oops, we did it again. Joe Duffy’s Picks 8-3 the last two days. It will be such a long and hot summer for the bookmakers. Again. Too bad. This is what you pay us to do!

NBA

Major

HOUSTON +10.5 Golden State

Truthfully I wish overrated Dwight Howard was out and the line adjusted. He is overrated, though from a straight up standpoint, of course they are better with him. Big playoff underdogs off a loss have been a great bet.

The Warriors got their win, so there is not a sense of urgency for a blowout. The Rockets clearly have been resilient. This game goes down to the wire.

MLB

Wise Guy

LA ANGELS (SHOEMAKER +101) Toronto (Dickey)

The Angels are 10-4 the last 14. Toronto is 2-9 the last 11. The road team is 6-1 in Shoemaker starts and Toronto is 12-1 with him on the road since last year. Toronto is 2-6 with RA Dickey. Dickey has been lit up for 13 ER in 11 IP. Dickey has a 7.34 ERA in his last five starts.

Going back to last year, Angels are 54-24 in their last 78 vs. a team with a losing record.

Philadelphia-Colorado OVER 9.5 (Williams-De La Rosa)

Day Total of the Month

One of those teams or both could put the game over the total themselves. Jorge De La Rosa has a home ERA and WHIP of 11.45 and 2.455. Jerome Williams road numbers are 8.16 and 1.954. But of course playing at Coors Field will be the cure, right? Philly has an OPS of .819 their last seven games.

Major

TAMPA (COLOME -109) Oakland (Chavez)

This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

We have reduced the number of such picks after refining the metrics to raise the winning percentage. In short we have more sources that must validate it is widely authenticated.

 

 

January 1, 2015

New Year’s Day Bowls and College Football Playoff Previews ATS

Of course the world is fired up about FSU-Oregon, Ohio State-Alabama, but sharp bettors will be making a ton of money before that with Wisconsin-Auburn, Baylor-Michigan State, Missouri-Minnesota.

Critical breaking news! Jan. 1 is the best day of the bowl season for bettors. To say the least this is major breaking news. Get the College Football Moneyline Game of the Year and College Bowl Total of the Year among far and away a season high of five bowl Wise Guys plus a Major. Yes this is every bit as strong as our NFL Money Line GOY in the NFL on Oakland +230 to Buffalo. We now have both playoff sides (or is one of the sides the Money line GOY) and both totals, all as Wise Guys. Once you read the analysis, you will see this is not mere hype. The intel will flat out leave your jaws on the floor.

NBA is 9-1 last ten including a 6-0 run. We will look fully at basketball and may add some! Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com

 

 

Older Posts »

Powered by WordPress