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May 22, 2019

Square Bettors: Stop Making This Inane Blunder, You Know You Are

There are ceaseless illustrations of how counterintuitive understanding is one of the potent tools of the sharp player. This prose is neither my first nor last story that shares formulas befitting under the classification of winning sports systems that are contrary to expectation.

If I had .01 bitcoin for every time I’ve heard the canard about isolating teams that are much better on the road than they are at home and ride this dichotomy, I’d be a bitcoin millionaire. Okay, maybe hyperbole in an article refuting urban legends was over-the-top but grant me some literary license.

To illustrate, let’s say a team is 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 12 points per game, yet 0-6 SU and ATS on the road, losing by an average of 12 points per game, the “angle” would command to bet them at home and against them on the road.

I positively identify Sportsbook Review to be valuable for a lot of information, but this is as emblematic of square falsities of an article ever scripted about fabled home/road dichotomy. Correcting the grammar, which was every bit as inept as the claim, “The numbers don’t lie, brother, and it’s never a bad idea to really focus on bets when good home teams play bad road teams,” urging us to bet the home teams, while using inductive, not deductive evidence. As said prevarication was written about baseball, let’s commence on MLB wagering.

When a home team has a home winning percentage a whopping .490 better than the visitors away winning percentage, it must be a lock to unload on the home team? Not so fast. Under those exact parameters, the home team is 416-403, but for -144.22 units. With the juice and betting against the splits wins 96.16 units, said vig accounting for the variance in betting for and against the assumption.

When a home underdog has a home winning percentage of .150 or better than their opponent’s away winning percentage, going with the home puppy with great splits would be a good wager, correct? Conventional logic and the clones who regurgitate the same “home/road dichotomy” theory would scream yes. #FakeNews. The away favorite with inferior splits is +61.49 units and even better on the runline at +78.8 for 7.3 ROI.

Ah, but indubitably employing home/road dichotomy triumphs in the NBA, correct? Maddux Sports says so. “Consider the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Effect. This is the team that cannot be beaten at home and cannot win on the road. They exist, and you should bet on them when at home and also bet against them when on the road until the NBA oddsmakers make a home/road dichotomy adjustment.”

When a team is a home underdog of five or more in defiance of their home winning percentage being .110 or higher than the chalk’s away winning percentage has to be a gift from heaven, right? Risk with them on the money line will have high returns the folk tale would strongly insinuate. Nope, such teams are 75-200 straight up and 124-165-6 against the spread the factual data rejoins.

The reasons the oxymoronic “conventional logic” keeps the bookies prosperous and fully financed for us sharks is rudimentary. Oddsmakers comprehend public proclivities and modify accordingly. Bookies and sharps zig, while most bettors zag. But history bears witness to the fact considerable home/road splits are an outlier. Regression towards the standard home court/field advantage occurs more times than not.

Jekyll and Hyde (as so far as utterly different at home than on the road) teams are genuinely an aberration. You can bet on it.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the one-stop shop for best sports picks and vetted sportsbooks. Follow him on Twitter @OffshoreInsider His mastery of advanced analytics is why he has been a full-time gambler and handicapper since 1988. Theories are tested, enabling facts to supersede bias. Check out his sports betting YouTube channel

December 20, 2018

Gasparilla Bowl Betting Info, Sharp Moves in Basketball Odds

Filed under: Press Releases,Sports Betting News — Tags: — Joe Duffy @ 4:53 PM

Marshall takes on South Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. Marshall is currently laying from -4 at BetOnline, home of the opening line to -4.5 at GTBets. The total is 51 across the board, though 50.5 in Vegas as some shops. Marshall has 65 percent of bets and 61 percent of the money, while 54 percent of bets and 67 percent of funds are on the under. That is rare as the public generally prefers betting overs. Winds may be a minor factor at 12 mph at kickoff but increasing to 16 mph as the game goes on. There is a 49 percent chance of rain at the opening, but any storms are expected to taper.

Marshall is 11-3 SU in bowls including six straight wins, 5-0 under mentor Doc Holliday with a double-digit margin of cover. Some may question South Florida’s motivation as they were an early frontrunner with rival Central Florida to be the top fly-in-the-ointment top non-power five team before the wheels fell off. 

Joe Duffy continues to make your Christmas merrier and is helping you pay of Hanukah bills! We do both in the Duffy family. We go 5-2 last night, including 4-0 NBA. Thursday, college football side and two NBA winners. One of the essential secrets of our success in dominating bowls is knowing big myths. Let’s say that helps us won tonight. Get the picks now

NBA sharp moves

The most significant public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Houston OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and most significant sportsbook liabilities: none

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: LA Clippers UNDER

The most significant line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

College basketball sharp moves

The most significant public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and most significant sportsbook liabilities: none

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: James Madison UNDER, Purdue UNDER

The most significant line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Ball State opened at -20, now -15.5 includes added rotation games you can wager on at Bet Now

 

 

November 14, 2018

11 Free College Football Winning Picks To Bet Now at BetNow

These are added rotation picks using same metrics Joe Duffy’s Picks has used to pick winners in the regular rotation games at OffshoreInsiders.com

Bet Now has ability to deposit, withdraw, and bet from any mobile device. Also get up to a 100 percent initial and reload bonus. All at Bet Now They are without question the best sportsbook for added rotation games in college football and basketball.

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet. MLB picks are based on pitchers unless otherwise noted.

Wise Guy

Jackson State-Alcorn State UNDER 42 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Youngstown State-Illinois State UNDER 39.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Jacksonville State-Kennesaw State UNDER 47.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Lamar-McNeese State UNDER 46 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

North Dakota-Northern Arizona UNDER 49.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

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CS Sacramento-UC Davis OVER 68.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The over version goes over 901-705.

Monmouth-Garner Webb OVER 61 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Sam Houston State-Houston Baptist OVER 71.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

South Dakota State-South Dakota State OVER 72.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

Eastern Illinois-SE Missouri State OVER 77 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

James Madison-Townson OVER 66.5 at Bet Now

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under 684-408.

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September 7, 2018

Carson Wentz Returns: Odds Set By Top Offshore Sportsbook BetDSI

Filed under: Press Releases — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 4:03 PM
BetDSI  is offering prop bets on when Carson Wentz will return to action for the Philadelphia Eagles, and the odds reflect a longer-than-expected absence.

“Our sources are confirming that Wentz will not only be out a few more weeks, but that it’s highly likely he won’t return until after Philly’s bye,” a BetDSI oddsmaker said. “There’s no reason to rush him back from injury when they have an advantageous early-season schedule and a competent backup quarterback.”

According to BetDSI oddsmakers, Wentz is only worth 3-4 points to a spread (depending on the opponent) because Nick Foles is his backup. However, if a player like Geno Smith or Blaine Gabbert was the backup, Wentz’s value would be higher.

Which week will Carson Wentz start for the Eagles?

Week 2, 3 or 4 (+450)

Week 5 (+500)

Week 6 (+750)

Week 7 (+750)

Week 8 (+1000)

Week 10 or later (+150)

Does not start in 2018 (+2500)

Eagles’ record when Carson Wentz makes first start (must start in reg. season for action)

Losing Record +600

Winning Record -1000

Eagles’ Super Bowl odds when Carson Wentz makes first start (must start in reg. season for action)

Over 8-1 (-115)

Under 8-1 (-115)

Joe Duffy, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com says Wentz will return as soon as the Eagles lose a game. He does not think they win the first four games, hence weeks 2-4 at +450 is the best at BetDSI

September 6, 2018

Kellyane Conway Authored NY Times Resistance Article: You Can Bet On It…Literally

Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Vice President Mike Pence are the most likely leakers in the New York Times bombshell editorial, “I Am Part of the Resistance” according to Bovada sportsbook. All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1.

Of course, the current “Deep Throat” may not be revealed for decades, but longshot Kellyanne Conway, whose husband is a noted Trump critic, is tempting at +500.

Who will be revealed to have written the “I am part of the resistance” New York Times Op-Ed? 

  • Jeff Sessions+250
  • Mike Pence+350
  • John Kelly+450
  • James Mattis+450
  • Nikki Haley+1000
  • Javanka+2000
  • Dan Coats+500
  • Don McGahn+1500
  • Melania Trump+5000
  • Donald Trump+2500
  • Kellyane Conway+5000

Bet now at Bovada

February 25, 2017

Official System Review of Trabeplom Betting System

Filed under: Sports Gambling Strategy Articles — Joe Duffy @ 1:28 PM

Is Trabeplom betting system a scam or for real? Get a slideshow breakdown.

Trabeplom system review from Joe Duffy

For actual winning picks however, this is your every day stop

May 22, 2015

This is Why Elite Gamblers Win Year and and Year Out in Every Sport

Filed under: Press Releases — Joe Duffy @ 10:19 PM

Big day Thursday off a fantastic portfolio Wednesday. Approaching our 27th anniversary with Joe Duffy’s best public, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 10-4 the last 14 including the Game of the Month at +163 on Texas. So, do you still want to be on the outside looking on or are you sick and tired of settling?

NBA

Wise Guy

CLEVELAND +2 Atlanta

It looks like DeMarre Carroll will play. If anything, I was worried that Atlanta would rally around the injury and pull out a win. Truthfully if Carroll is ruled out and the line swings to -2 the other way, I will middle the game. So grab Cleveland at the widely available +2.

Cavs are easily the better team and the run Atlanta made at the end masked it. It is only a matter of whether or not a nice middle opportunity comes up.

MLB

Wise Guy

TEXAS (LEWIS +163) NY Yankees (Pineda)

AL Game of the Month

The Yankees are 1-7 the last eight. They have has a slugging percentage of just .300 the last seven. Colby Lewis has an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP Of 1.120 for the season. On the road it is a staggering 2.55 and 1.216.

Texas has a slugging percentage edge of .152 higher in their last five games. Texas is 11-1 road versus an opponent with a winning home record.

NHL

Major

TAMPA -130 NY Rangers

Tampa has taken control of the series and now Henrik Lundqvist has gone from the rock of the team to sieve. NY has no answer for the Lightening top line. We may see a multiple goal win here.

May 21, 2015

Yet Another Miserable and Hot Summer For Bookmakers

Filed under: Press Releases — Joe Duffy @ 10:46 PM

Oops, we did it again. Joe Duffy’s Picks 8-3 the last two days. It will be such a long and hot summer for the bookmakers. Again. Too bad. This is what you pay us to do!

NBA

Major

HOUSTON +10.5 Golden State

Truthfully I wish overrated Dwight Howard was out and the line adjusted. He is overrated, though from a straight up standpoint, of course they are better with him. Big playoff underdogs off a loss have been a great bet.

The Warriors got their win, so there is not a sense of urgency for a blowout. The Rockets clearly have been resilient. This game goes down to the wire.

MLB

Wise Guy

LA ANGELS (SHOEMAKER +101) Toronto (Dickey)

The Angels are 10-4 the last 14. Toronto is 2-9 the last 11. The road team is 6-1 in Shoemaker starts and Toronto is 12-1 with him on the road since last year. Toronto is 2-6 with RA Dickey. Dickey has been lit up for 13 ER in 11 IP. Dickey has a 7.34 ERA in his last five starts.

Going back to last year, Angels are 54-24 in their last 78 vs. a team with a losing record.

Philadelphia-Colorado OVER 9.5 (Williams-De La Rosa)

Day Total of the Month

One of those teams or both could put the game over the total themselves. Jorge De La Rosa has a home ERA and WHIP of 11.45 and 2.455. Jerome Williams road numbers are 8.16 and 1.954. But of course playing at Coors Field will be the cure, right? Philly has an OPS of .819 their last seven games.

Major

TAMPA (COLOME -109) Oakland (Chavez)

This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

We have reduced the number of such picks after refining the metrics to raise the winning percentage. In short we have more sources that must validate it is widely authenticated.

 

 

January 1, 2015

New Year’s Day Bowls and College Football Playoff Previews ATS

Of course the world is fired up about FSU-Oregon, Ohio State-Alabama, but sharp bettors will be making a ton of money before that with Wisconsin-Auburn, Baylor-Michigan State, Missouri-Minnesota.

Critical breaking news! Jan. 1 is the best day of the bowl season for bettors. To say the least this is major breaking news. Get the College Football Moneyline Game of the Year and College Bowl Total of the Year among far and away a season high of five bowl Wise Guys plus a Major. Yes this is every bit as strong as our NFL Money Line GOY in the NFL on Oakland +230 to Buffalo. We now have both playoff sides (or is one of the sides the Money line GOY) and both totals, all as Wise Guys. Once you read the analysis, you will see this is not mere hype. The intel will flat out leave your jaws on the floor.

NBA is 9-1 last ten including a 6-0 run. We will look fully at basketball and may add some! Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com

 

 

October 7, 2013

Greatest Ever NFL Season Well Under Way

Filed under: Press Releases — Joe Duffy @ 11:14 PM

At the beginning of the year we promised best ever football season for very specific reason. Our specialty, the NFL has exceeded it.

On Thursday, we gave pro bettors this from Joe Duffy’s Picks:

Major

CLEVELAND -4 Buffalo

Cleveland 2-0 straight up and against the spread since QB change to Brian Hoyer, 0-2 before that.  When analyzing home field advantage, too many people forget, the home crowd has to have something to root for in order to be that so-called 12th man. For the first time in a long, long time, the Dog Pound has reasons for optimism.  Now playing a marquee Thursday night game, look for as big of a home field edge as has been seen in Cleveland since the pre-Ravens days.

True we do generally state that rookie QBs, which Buffalo of course has, can be underrated against the spread. But the home team is 4-0 against the spread in Buffalo contests and the young Bills will be playing just their second road game of the year in what we do expect to pretty raucous.

Also rookie Cleveland TE Jordan Cameron quietly having spectacular season and he and Hoyer clicking big time. Bills did very well without top three DBs but can they do it again on a short-turnaround? Cleveland is holding teams to a full yard below their normal average. Though not a blowout, the Browns get the green by seven.

Just as Buffalo developed some life in their running game, each of their two top backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson got banged up and now must work on a short week.

We came back Sunday with:

NFL

Sunday

Wise Guy

OAKLAND +4.5 San Diego

Terrelle Pryor has given Oakland life. His status fluctuated last week before he was finally scratched and replaced with the poor man version of Scott Mitchell, Matt Flynn who had one good game in his life, a meaningless win when the Packers rested Aaron Rodgers a few years ago.

Philip Rivers is a long-time predictably unpredictable QB. Off a big win last week, look for him to come out with a disaster as he often has off big wins. Oakland is banged up, which is why they are getting so many points. But no way they should be getting 4.5 at home from a grossly overrated QB.

Denver-Dallas OVER 56

You may have heard that Denver is scoring a lot of points and given up a few too. Their games are averaging 67.4 points per game. Nobody has ever had to twist the arm of Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to abandon the running game. A game plan of keep away is extremely unlikely.

They are averaging 33.5 points per game at home. We also expect Dallas to keep the game closer than the Broncos first four foes, so Denver will not have the luxury of scheming against the pass every play. Denver is getting an outlandish 9.3 yards per pass but also giving up a pretty generous 7.3.

It is just not in the nature of Jason Garrett to slow things down and he has some weapons at his disposal. High total? Nope, not with the Broncos and Dallas only corroborates it.

Philadelphia-NY Giants OVER 53

When the Eagles offense played on a short week, the Sunday to Thursday turnaround, the game went under. All three other games with normal rest have produced overs by eight, 12, and 14.5.

While some keep speculating that Chip Kelly will refine his offense and slow things down, it will not happen this week. The Giants will be without Aaron Ross (back) and Jayron Hosley (hamstring), and starting cornerback Corey Webster (groin) is doubtful. That leaves them with just Prince Amukamara, Trumaine McBride and Terrell Thomas. Amukamara and McBride likely will start on the outside

We use efficiency rankings and rating ahead of the raw numbers. Chip Kelly and Eagles have lost three straight and are a classic good offense, lousy defense team of contrasts. Philly passing game ranks in the top 10 in just about all the key indicators, but its pass defense ranks No. 27 or worse in those same categories.

Eli Manning has been a huge bust this year, but his arm is strong and this is the perfect team to take out some frustrations on.

Major

NY GIANTS -2.5 Philadelphia

Both of these teams have been awful, but the Eagles are genuinely bad. The Giants bounce back begins this week. Home field advantage is worth three points, so this line actually implies Philadelphia is the better team.  They are not.

As horrible as the Giants have looked, three of the losses were on the road, the other to Denver, which is a complete freight train right now.  Just ask the Eagles, who were castrated by them last Sunday?

Chip Kelly had the largest salary cap in college football at Oregon, thanks to Phil Knight. He could recruit three-deep and rotate fresh bodies in and out over an 11 or 12 game schedule. As we knew it would not, it has not worked in the NFL.

Remember in both of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin Super Bowl winning years, they were counted out during the regular season. They are in the NFC Least. They certainly can make the playoffs in this joke of a division. Three of their four losses were outside the division and this is their first divisional home game.

The Giants have a clear upside as their key numbers show they are much better than the 0-4 start suggests. They are actually getting 5.8 yards per play to teams normally permitting 5.7 and allowing 3.9 yards per rushing attempt to teams earning an average 4.2. 6.5 yards per pass to 7.0 and 5.4 yards per play to 5.7.

The Eagles chuck and duck offense has a point of diminishing return. It is no surprise they won their first game, lost their second by three, third by 10, and fourth by 32. Okay, that pattern will not continue perfectly as they will lose by less than 32. But they lose by double-digits.

While the schedule maker finally gives the Giants their second home game, this is the second of three straight road games for the clueless Eagles. Maybe they do lose by more than 32.

DALLAS +8.5 Denver

Yes Denver is a machine, but they beat four teams that may not even make the playoffs. We told you when we swept with Denver and the over on opening night, the Ravens will probably get better as the year went on, but the perfect time to play the rebuilt squad was opening week. The other three teams they beat are the Giants, Oakland, and Philadelphia. Because the NFL Least is horrible of historic proportions, in theory New York or Philly could make the postseason, but neither even comes close to playoff caliber.

Finally, Denver is playing just their second road game of the season. Dallas fits well into our predictably unpredictable angle. They look great one week, horrid the next. When you least expect it, well you know the rest. So they followed up a close win with a close loss, followed by a blowout win and semi-blowout loss. The home team is 4-0 straight up in their contests. This game will be much closer than the oddsmakers think.

Detroit-Green Bay UNDER 54.5

Green Bay is very clearly committed to running much more and passing a bit less.  Yes Matt Stafford is on top of his game right now. And that is when time and time again he comes up with a dud. As soon as he seems to turn the corner, start fading.  A dome team, their offensive numbers are much less at home.

Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley match up well against Green Bay and their rebuilt offensive line. Look for them to slow down the pack.

SAN FRANCISCO -6 Houston

This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

Oh and Monday:

Wise Guy

NY JETS +10 Atlanta

Remember, last year Atlanta had seven wins of three points or fewer. This season their only win was to St. Louis by a touchdown. They have had their share of good fortune and rarely blow teams out.

Geno Smith has 17 completions of 20+ yards are the most by a Jets QB in the first four games of a season since Joe Namath’s 17 in 1972. Again, rookie QBs are generally undervalued. That is why the Jets are 3-1 against the spread.

Absolutely he has been very sloppy. But a rookie who showed talent, but bad decision making certainly has a huge upside, especially against a suspect defense. Atlanta allows 7.7 yards per pass versus squads that usually get 6.6 and 6.3 yards per play to 5.5 as they are not good at stopping the run either. They allow 4.0 yards per rushing attempt to 3.6.

Smith has faced some good defenses and Jets get 7.1 yards per pass to teams normally allowing just 6.2. If Atlanta loses the turnover battle, they may lose outright. We cannot see them covering the huge spread.

Jets outright as a Wise Guy makes us 32-16 in the NFL since week 3 of the preseason. We go 8-1 in the NFL last week. We hit all four Wise Guys Giants OVER, Cowboys OVER, Raiders, and Jets. We have two NFL and a college football up for this weekend. Get at least the weekly Joe Duffy’s Picks or Bet it Trinity pass to access now. Get the picks now

 

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