We’re six days away from the seedings coming out for the NCAA Tournament and to whet your appetite, there are 21 conference tournaments ongoing this week.
The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
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Go with big away favorites versus opponent off a cover in a game that is expected to be high scoring is 237-153-4. BetQL has their projected line as -28 as one of their stronger bets. SportsLine gives us a slight edge with Coastal winning by 22. BettingPros has us with a slight edge.
Not a big contrarian bet, but our contrarian index does have squares betting on Temple. Public dogs generally die.
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Each Thursday or Friday, Betonline releases their look-ahead lines for the following week’s NFL matchups. These lines offer bettors an early glimpse into the spreads, but they are only available for a limited time. They are taken down on Sunday before the games kick off, only to be re-opened once the day’s action concludes.
Injuries and other major developments over the weekend can lead to significant line movements, as demonstrated this week with Jordan Love’s injury. When there’s a major shift between the look-ahead lines and the new lines, these movements are highlighted below. NFL Week 2 spreads are subject to further change at Betonline
NFL Week 2 Lines:
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Bills at Dolphins (-1½)
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Saints at Cowboys (-6½)
Buccaneers at Lions (-6)
Colts (-3) at Packers Note: The line opened with the Packers as -4 favorites, but shifted significantly after Jordan Love’s injury.
Jets (-4) at Titans
49ers (-5) at Vikings Note: Line opened at 49ers -6½.
Seahawks (-3½) at Patriots
Giants at Commanders (-3)
Chargers (-4½) at Panthers
Browns at Jaguars (-3)
Raiders at Ravens (-8½)
Rams (-2½) at Cardinals
Steelers (-3) at Broncos
Bengals at Chiefs (-6) Note: Line opened at Chiefs -4.
Bears at Texans (-6½) Note: Line opened at Texans -3½.
Monday, September 16, 2024
Falcons at Eagles (-6) Note: Line opened at Eagles -4.
These lines reflect the latest updates from Betonline as of this writing. Be sure to check back frequently for adjustments, as they can shift based on news, injuries, and public betting patterns.
The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are set to clash in what promises to be a thrilling NFL matchup. With Philadelphia currently favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 49 according to MYBookie, this game has already seen interesting movements in betting action. If you’re trying to find an edge in betting this game, examining the betting splits can offer valuable insights into where the sharp money is landing.
Opening Line Movement
The game opened with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite, and the total sitting at 49. These numbers have remained steady, but it’s important to look beyond the static odds and examine the betting activity for more context. MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
Betting Splits: Packers Popular, But Not with Big Money
As of now, 67% of all bets are on the Green Bay Packers, indicating that the public favors Aaron Rodgers and company to cover the spread. However, just 32% of the money is backing the Packers, signaling a potential disconnect between public opinion and sharper betting activity.
When we see a high percentage of bets on one side but a lower percentage of money backing the same team, it’s often a sign that larger, more informed bets are coming in on the other side – in this case, the Eagles. Philadelphia, as the home favorite, may be the play of sharper bettors looking to capitalize on public overconfidence in Green Bay.
Over/Under: Public Loves the Over, Sharps Less Certain
On the total, 77% of tickets are on the OVER, yet just 55% of the money is following suit. This is another clear indicator that while casual bettors expect a high-scoring affair, larger wagers are more cautiously optimistic. The smaller percentage of money on the OVER suggests sharper bettors may anticipate a defensive battle or believe that the total line of 49 is a bit too high.
What the Experts Are Saying
💰💰💰 Top expert pick: Betting expert Joe Duffy is among the sharpest minds in NFL wagering, and he’s got a strong opinion on the side for this game. Duffy’s reputation for finding value where others don’t is unmatched, and he’s got his eyes not only on this NFL matchup but also on key college football plays this weekend.
For those looking to bet with confidence, Joe Duffy’s picks can be found at OffshoreInsiders.com, where his track record speaks for itself. From reading between the lines on betting splits to leveraging insider information, Duffy provides a comprehensive approach to maximizing your sports betting outcomes.
Final Thoughts
Betting splits give us insight into the minds of both public and professional bettors. In the Packers vs. Eagles matchup, the public is favoring Green Bay and the OVER, but the money percentages suggest the sharp play may be on Philadelphia and potentially the UNDER. Whether you’re tailing the sharps or following the public, make sure you have the right information to guide your betting decisions.
The first week of the college football season is officially in the books, and with it, we’ve seen some intriguing shifts in future odds across the betting landscape. Bettors and fans alike are keeping a close eye on how Week 1 performances have impacted the odds, especially as teams begin to reveal their true potential—or lack thereof.
Notable Odds Shifts Among Top Contenders
Even the top teams in the nation saw slight adjustments in their odds, reflecting a nuanced response to their Week 1 performances. While the top two teams’ odds lengthened ever so slightly, USC made a more significant leap in the futures market. The Trojans, who were previously sitting at 100/1, saw their odds shorten dramatically to 25/1. This shift likely reflects a combination of a strong opening performance and growing confidence in their potential to make a deep run this season.
Meanwhile, Clemson, despite suffering a heavy defeat at the hands of Georgia, actually saw their odds improve from 50/1 to 40/1 at Betonline, the home of the opening line. This may seem counterintuitive, but Florida State’s two conference losses have reshaped the ACC landscape, leaving Clemson as a more viable contender in the conference and, by extension, for the national title. BetOnline review.
Florida State and Florida See Odds Plummet
On the other hand, Florida State’s chances of competing for a national title took a nosedive after their poor start. The Seminoles’ odds ballooned from 66/1 to a staggering 500/1, reflecting the severe blow their championship aspirations took with those two conference losses. Florida, too, saw a significant downgrade in their odds, moving from 300/1 to 500/1. It seems that the betting markets have lost faith in both Florida schools after Week 1.
Teams on the Rise
Several teams have emerged from Week 1 with improved odds, signaling growing optimism from oddsmakers. Miami, which opened the season at 28/1, now finds itself at 18/1. The Hurricanes’ strong showing in their opener has clearly impressed, suggesting that they could be a team to watch as the season progresses.
Oklahoma also saw a positive adjustment, moving from 80/1 to 50/1. The Sooners’ odds shift is a reflection of their solid Week 1 performance and the potential for them to be a sleeper team this season.
Arizona and Nebraska both saw their odds improve from 250/1 to 150/1. These adjustments indicate that while they may still be long shots, their Week 1 performances have earned them a more favorable position in the eyes of bettors.
Teams on the Decline
Conversely, some teams saw their odds lengthen after disappointing Week 1 showings. James Madison, a team that had some preseason buzz, saw its odds skyrocket from 100/1 to 1000/1, indicating that their opening performance did not inspire confidence. Baylor also found themselves in a similar situation, with their odds lengthening from 500/1 to 1000/1, reflecting doubts about their ability to contend this season.
Final Thoughts
Week 1 has already had a significant impact on the futures market, with some teams emerging as stronger contenders while others have seen their odds lengthen dramatically. As the season progresses, these odds will continue to shift, providing valuable insights into the evolving perceptions of each team’s championship potential. Bettors should keep a close eye on these movements as they could offer opportunities for strategic wagering in the weeks ahead.
Joe Duffy is 16-10 in college football thus far and has an insane weekend of college football and NFL bets up. Must see to believe OffshoreInsiders.com
Taking Michigan State +9.5 is a solid bet for several reasons.
First, the large point spread combined with a low total in a conference game is a historically profitable angle, with a record of 437-321-23. This trend indicates that when the oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game, getting nearly double-digit points is a significant edge for the underdog with our free football pick.
Recent Performance: Michigan State’s recent win against Florida Atlantic (16-10) shows they can compete in low-scoring games. Their defense held strong, which is crucial when betting on an underdog with a large spread.
Maryland’s Inconsistency: While Maryland had an impressive win against UConn, their performance can be inconsistent. Betting on Michigan State takes advantage of potential variability in Maryland’s play.
Historical Trends: Historically, Michigan State has performed well against the spread in similar situations. This trend, combined with the large point spread, increases the likelihood of them covering.
Motivation and Rivalry: Conference games often bring out the best in teams due to the rivalry and stakes involved. Michigan State will be highly motivated to perform well against a conference opponent.
Betting Market: The betting market often overvalues favorites, especially in conference games. This can create value on the underdog side, making Michigan State +9.5 an attractive bet.
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As the college football season kicks off, Week 1 always brings with it a blend of excitement and unpredictability. For savvy bettors, this is an opportunity to find value in lines that might not fully reflect the true dynamics of a matchup. One such game this week is Stanford +9 against TCU, and here’s why you should consider backing the Cardinal.
Week 1 Home Underdogs or Small Favorites Excel
Historically, Week 1 has been a fertile ground for home underdogs or small favorites. The numbers don’t lie: these teams have gone 76-47-1 against the spread (ATS) in recent years. This trend underscores the unique environment of the season opener. Home teams, especially those not expected to win by large margins, often feed off the naïve enthusiasm of both the team and the crowd. For many, it’s the first taste of live college football in months, and that energy can be palpable.
Naïve Enthusiasm and the Energized Crowd
Opening week crowds are unlike any other. The fresh start, combined with the pent-up anticipation, makes for an atmosphere that heavily favors the home team. This “naïve enthusiasm” can translate into a significant on-field advantage. Teams that might struggle later in the season often find themselves lifted by this early surge of support, making them tougher opponents than they might appear on paper.
Early Season Unpredictability: A Bettor’s Advantage
The early season is notoriously challenging for oddsmakers. With limited data on how teams have evolved during the offseason, setting accurate lines is more art than science. This unpredictability works to the advantage of sharp bettors who can identify discrepancies between the lines and their own power ratings. In this matchup, the Action Network’s power line has TCU favored by just 5.3 points, giving us a 7.4 percent edge by taking Stanford +9.
Fatigue Is Not Yet a Factor
One of the key reasons inferior teams often falter as the season progresses is the mental and physical wear that accumulates over time. However, in Week 1, this is not a concern. Every team is fresh, focused, and prepared, meaning that disparities in talent and depth are not as pronounced as they will be in later weeks. This levels the playing field and gives underdogs like Stanford a better shot at covering or even winning outright.
Conclusion: Bet Stanford +9
When you combine the historical trends favoring home underdogs or small favorites in Week 1, the energized atmosphere of a season opener, the early-season unpredictability, and the fresh legs of both teams, Stanford +9 becomes a compelling pick. Add to that the calculated edge from power ratings, and this bet offers significant value.
Back the Cardinal to keep it close against TCU and possibly even pull off the upset. Happy betting at top sportsbook
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For Week 0 of the 2024 college football season, here are some key betting odds and insights from OffshoreInsiders.com
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech:
Spread: Florida State is favored by 11.5 to 13 points, depending on the sportsbook. MyBookie review
Total (Over/Under): The total points for this game is set between 52.5 and 56 points.
Moneyline: Florida State is around -490, while Georgia Tech is +365 to +380.
Analysis: This game, played in Dublin, Ireland, is anticipated to be a high-scoring affair. Florida State is heavily favored due to their strong season last year, while Georgia Tech’s potent rushing attack could help them keep it closer than expected.
SMU vs. Nevada:
Spread: SMU is a 21.5 to 27.5-point favorite.
Total (Over/Under): The total is around 56.5 to 57 points. Bovada
Moneyline: SMU is a massive -1800 favorite, with Nevada as a +920 underdog.
Analysis: SMU is expected to dominate, but Nevada has struggled to cover the spread at home, making SMU a strong pick to cover in college football ATS bet.
Delaware State vs. Hawaii:
Spread: Hawaii is favored by 37.5 to 38 points.
Total (Over/Under): The total is around 55.5 points.
Analysis: This game is expected to be heavily one-sided, with Hawaii likely to cover due to their powerful passing game against a weaker Delaware State team.
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Tampa-Boston UNDER 9 (Snell-Godley)
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 2890-2277-271.
MLB injuries
Ronald Acuna is questionable for Braves. The superstar is having an okay season for Atlanta hitting .258 with 4 HR and 9 RBI
Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun is back from injury
3B Yoan Moncada will not start. He is hitting .278 with 3 HR and 7 RBI
Detroit’s Austin Romine not in starting lineup. C is averaging .308 with 2 HR and 9 RBI
JaCoby Jones is not in lineup for Detroit with 5 HR and 12 RBI
Cleveland winds blowing in at 11 mph
Houston wind blowing to centerfield at 11 mph
NBA injuries
Pacers G Victor Oladipo is questionable for Pacers. He averages 14.4 points per game, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists
Pacers forward T.J. Warren, who has become bubble star is 19.8 points per game, 4.2 rebounds
OKC’s Dennis Schroder 18.9 points per game, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists
OKC’s Danilo Gallinari is expected to return. He averages 19.1 points per game, 5.3 rebounds
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