Promise made: The Weekday Afternoon Dandy Dog AL Game of the Year is among four, yes four day winning picks. It is the best weekday afternoon day portfolio of 2014.
Promise delivered 3-1 including that Weekday Afternoon Dandy Dog AL Game of the Year on Toronto +150, Miami +135, and Washington on the run line getting back a small vig. Here is what pro gamblers got again today at OffshoreInsiders.com
TORONTO (HAPP +150) Detroit (Verlander)
Weekday Afternoon Dandy Dog AL Game of the Year
Toronto has won four straight and 18-of-22 and 23-of-30. Detroit has lost four straight and 12-of-16. There is something about fading a large favorite that has lost as many in a row as their opponent has in their last 22 that appeals to me. In fact, Toronto has won nine straight as an underdog and are 10-1 their last 11 road games.
Detroit has failed in six straight as a favorite. Last five games Toronto has a slugging percentage edge of .465 to .329. In their last 10 games it is .497 to .344.
Of course Detroit has a big pitching edge, hence the great value. However, recent form says otherwise. Toronto has won 3-of-4 with A.J. Happ. They have won both of his road starts as his day and road splits are much better than home and night.
In his last four games Justin Verlander has a 6.84 ERA and he has been lit up for three additional unearned runs. His WHIP is 1.72 in his last four. The road team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. His day ERA is 4.06 in six starts.
OAKLAND (POMERANZ +152) NY Yankees (Tanaka)
Oakland has won five straight all by three runs or more. New York has lost four in a row getting outscored 29-10. Oakland is 20-10 on the road +9.2 units while the Yanks are -8.6 at home.
Last five games Oakland has a slugging percentage of .538 to just .325 to New York. In their last 10 games it is .490 to .315. Athletics are 24-6 in their last 30 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 42-20 road versus an opponent with a losing home record. Oakland has won six straight in the series.
Drew Pomeranz ERA and WHIP of 2.37 and 1.184 including 2.59 and 1.151 in five starts in which Oakland is 4-1. Masahiro Tanaka is tough to argue against, so it is not a Wise Guy play, but what great value at this price.
MIAMI (TURNER +135) Tampa (Odorizzi)
Tampa has lost nine straight and 20-of-28 and 9-23 with a total of 7-8.5. Miami has won three straight. Once a road fade, they have won 5-of-6 on the highway and although Tampa is a bit north of Miami, they will same climate that perhaps contributed to the Marlins great home mark. Tampa is 2-8 the last 10 with Odorizzi (-7.6 units) and 0-6 with him following a team loss.
Jacob Turner has an OBP against of .091 less on the road. He is also better in days games. Miami has won nine straight interleague games as an underdog. Tampa is 0-8 in IL games to teams with a winning record.
WASHINGTON (FISTER -1.5 +115) Philadelphia (Kendrick)
This is a runline winner. Philadelphia has failed in five straight to runline, all by 2.5 or more. They have been outscored 24-6 their last three games.
Washington has won 4-of-5 to runline all wins by 2.5 or more and the one loss by .5. In five starts Doug Fister ERA and WHIP of 3.34 and 1.079. At home it is 2.77 and 0.923.