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April 30, 2020

Filed under: Uncategorized — PiotrAbelo @ 12:34 PM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hqyWPvNNVz

https://www.youtube.com/embed/hqyWPvNNVz

April 29, 2020

AP NFL Coach of the Year Odds 2020-21

Filed under: Uncategorized — PiotrAbelo @ 7:23 PM

Odds are set for the Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year for the 2020-21 season. Do the Player of the Year odds reveal a decent dark horse? Odds are from Bovada  

The favorite, Belichick is of course intriguing. If the Patriots make the playoffs in the post-Brady era, he would be tough to beat. There are plenty of rumors of Deshaun Watson landing in New England, which would lessen the shock of the Pats making the postseason. But if Belichick accomplished this with unproven Jarrett Stidham, he’d be a virtual lock for Coach of the Year. 

I’ve preached for years how use oddsmakers’ knowledge against them. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is +1000 to win the MVP, putting him as the No. 4 favorite. Should Murray make a serious run at MVP, his coach Kliff Kingsbury would get serious consideration for COY and at 18-1 is very tempting. At the same odds, Kevin Stefanski is in very good position. He is taking over last year’s bust Cleveland, a team that has nowhere to go but up. 

If Baker Mayfield rises to the level of elite QB—and he showed great flashes two years ago—newcomer Stefanski becomes the favorite. 

All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1. 

AP NFL Coach of the Year 2020-21 

  • Bill Belichick+650 
  • Kyle Shanahan+1600 
  • Mike Vrabel+2000 
  • Andy Reid+2000 
  • Bruce Arians+1200 
  • Frank Reich+2000 
  • ·       Kevin Stefanski+1800 
  • Kliff Kingsbury+1800 
  • Mike McCarthy+2000 
  • Sean McDermott+1800 
  • John Harbaugh+2200 
  • Sean Payton+2400 
  • Brian Flores+1600 
  • Mike Tomlin+2800 
  • Sean McVay+3000 
  • Vic Fangio+2500 
  • Zac Taylor+2800 
  • Anthony Lynn+3000 
  • Doug Pederson+2500 
  • Pete Carroll+2800 
  • Ron Rivera+3000 
  • Dan Quinn+3000 
  • Matt LaFleur+3300 
  • Mike Zimmer+2500 
  • Matt Rhule+4500 
  • Joe Judge+3500 
  • Jon Gruden+4000 
  • Matt Nagy+4000 
  • Adam Gase+5500 
  • Bill O’Brien+5500 
  • Doug Marrone+5500 
  • Matt Patricia+5000 

OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy, has been winning since scorephone days. Surely you follow us on Twitter

April 27, 2020

Sports Handicapping Strategy: Never Bet With Your Broken Heart

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — Joe Duffy @ 3:21 PM

In my handicapping infancy in the late 80s, the Dutchman (recall that bloke scorephone junkies?) was doling out copies of some advice column along the lines of Golden Rules of Handicapping. I can’t even recollect most of the provisions, but do recall they ranged from the obvious like, “Bet with your head, not your heart,” to the total bullshit, “Only wager on an underdog to cover if you think they will win outright.”

All the other theorems were fairly unmemorable. I can’t “credit” the author, because I’m not sure who it was. Yes, stuff did go viral back then. However, previous to high tech overtaking the world, going viral meant a 15thgeneration photocopied note changing hands. 

Lost in the prudent, yet blatantly evident “not betting with your heart” is a more significant reality: don’t gamble with your broken heart. I’m distressed at how often I hear something along the lines of, “I refuse to bet on any game involving the Detroit Lions. Each time I bet on them whether for or against, I get it wrong.” 

Even though I haven’t done an academic inquisition, the ensuing soliloquy generally reveals a very small sample size. Further conversations uncovers a customary paradigm is that the weeper bets on foregoing team to repeat the performance of the last time they wagered for or against them. That is, if the team they bet on got annihilated, they will bet against that team, anticipating to again put up a fiasco effort. 

“They lost outright as a 10-point favorite. Next time, I bet against them as an underdog and they won by 20 points,” is a familiar sounding shrieking of annoyance. The fact that sharps bet on capricious teams to be unpredictable notwithstanding, it’s a knee-jerk reflex to eliminate possibilities of betting for or against a certain squad based on short-term heartache. 

It’s as preposterous as swearing off unders because a few tormenting setbacks. Most of us have been there, but only squares abandon the ship. 

Perchance there is a discernable cause and effect why someone has a bad read on a team, objectively assess and determine why. Make alterations accordingly. But if you are invoking your next bet based on how a certain team executed the last time you place a bet on them—the only bad read you have is on how prosperous handicapping functions. 

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He’s been dominating handicapping publicly since the 1980s scorephone days. With all the time off during coronavirus, he both added to his systems arsenal and started the dad jokes YouTube channel Hey Abby D with his daughter. The first video is below. 

Post Draft NFL Rookie Of Year Odds Among Many Prop Bets

The draft is in the books so now it’s time to project what these highly-touted rookies will accomplish during their inaugural NFL seasons.  

SportsBetting has put up a ton of odds surrounding the 2020 rookie class, and this page will have current numbers throughout the offseason: 

It’s no surprise that Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa lead the Offensive ROY list, which you can find below (as well as DROY candidates). Justin Herbert has 12/1 odds, but he and Tagovailoa are decent underdogs just to be their team’s starters in Week 1. 

And what might be considered an ominous sign for the ever-questionable health of Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts has 50-50 odds to start one game for the Eagles this season.

Additionally, there are over/under season statistical prop bets for these players:

Chase Young o/u 8.5 sacks

Clyde Edwards-Helaire o/u 950 rushing yards

D’Andre Swift o/u 625 rushing yards

Jeff Okudah o/u 3 interceptions

Jonathan Taylor o/u 550 rushing yards

Justin Jefferson o/u 750 receiving yards

CeeDee Lamb o/u 850 receiving yards

Henry Ruggs III o/u 800 receiving yards

Jalen Reagor o/u 700 receiving yards

Jerry Jeudy o/u 900 receiving yards

Joe Burrow o/u 16.5 interceptions, 22.5 passing TDs, 3800 passing yards

Justin Herbert o/u 17.5 interceptions, 21 passing TDs, 3400 passing yards

Tua Tagovailoa o/u 15.5 interceptions, 19 passing TDs, 3200 passing yards

Jalen Hurts starts game at QB: Yes -120, No -120

Finally, there are already odds for next year’s No. 1 pick:

No. 1 Selection in 2021 NFL Draft

Trevor Lawrence -400

Justin Fields +500

Penei Sewell +1200

Gregory Rousseau +1800

Ja’Marr Chase +2000

Dolphins starting quarterback in Week 1

Ryan Fitzpatrick -270

Tua Tagovailoa +200

Josh Rosen +2500

Chargers starting quarterback in Week 1

Tyrod Taylor -370

Justin Herbert +260

Easton Stick +3200

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Joe Burrow +250

Tua Tagovailoa +800

Clyde Edwards-Helaire +900

Jonathan Taylor +900

Jerry Jeudy +1000

D’Andre Swift +1200

Justin Herbert +1200

Ceedee Lamb +1400

J.K. Dobbins +1600

Henry Ruggs III +1800

Cam Akers +2000

Zack Moss +2000

Denzel Mims +2200

Tee Higgins +2200

Jalen Reagor +2800

Justin Jefferson +2800

K.J Hamler +2800

Laviska Shenault Jr. +2800

Brandon Aiyuk +3300

Jordan Love +3300

Joshua Kelly +3300

Lamical Perine +3300

Chase Claypool +4000

K.J Hill +4000

Michael Pittman Jr. +4000

Tyler Johnson +4000

A.J. Dillon +5000

Jacob Eason +5000

Jalen Hurts +5000

Jauan Jennings +5000

Jake Fromm +6600

Anthony Gordon +8000

Antonio Gandy-Golden +8000

Donovan Peoples-Jones +8000

Gabriel Davis +8000

Ke’Shawn Vaughn +8000

Adam Trautman +10000

Antonio Gibson +10000

Brycen Hopkins +10000

Cole Kmet +10000

Harrison Bryant +10000

Hunter Bryant +10000

John Hightower +10000

Mekhi Becton +10000

Van Jefferson +10000

Defense Rookie of the Year

Chase Young +500

Isaiah Simmons +800

Kenneth Murray +1400

Patrick Queen +1400

A.J. Epenesa +2000

Jeff Okudah +2000

Xavier McKinney +2200

Akeem Davis-Gaither +2500

Ashtyn Davis +2500

CJ Henderson +2500

Curtis Weaver +2500

Derrick Brown +2500

Grant Delpit +2500

Javon Kinlaw +2500

Jordan Elliot +2500

Julian Okwara +2500

Kristian Fulton +2500

Trevon Diggs +2500

Troy Dye +2500

Willie Gay Jr. +2500

Jaylon Johnson +2800

K’Lavon Chaisson +2800

Marlon Davidson +2800

Zack Baun +2800

A.J. Terrell +3300

Darrell Taylor +3300

Geno Stone +3300

Jeff Gladney +3300

Josh Uche +3300

Kyle Dugger +3300

Malik Harrison +3300

Terrell Lewis +3300

Yetur Gross-Matos +3300

Davion Taylor +4000

Logan Wilson +4000

Anfernee Jennings +5000

Antoine Winfield Jr. +5000

Bradlee Anae +5000

Bryce Hall +5000

Cam Brown +5000

Kenny Willekes +5000

Nevilled Gallimore +5000

Ross Blacklock +5000

Terrell Burgess +5000

Cameron Dantzier +6600

Justin Madubuike +6600

K’Von Wallace +6600

Trevis Gipson +8000

Davon Hamilton +10000

Jalen Elliott +10000

Julian Blackmon +10000

Markus Bailey +10000

Raekwon Davis +10000

Troy Pride Jr. +10000

Alohi Gilman +15000

David Woodward +15000

During the Covid disaster, OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy and his wonderful daughter started a dad jokes YouTube channel. It is must-watch “TV” YouTube style.   

April 26, 2020

Bovada Announces Poker Play Guarantee

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 7:54 PM

Bovada and Bovada poker continue to be industry leaders. Here is the latest from them:

Players are our priority. Period.

Since launching Bovada, we have always been dedicated to enhancing your gambling experience – now, we guarantee it.

Premium Processing

100% guaranteed withdrawals to put your money back in your pocket faster.

  • We will never miss your payout
  • We will always lead the industry in withdrawal processing times
  • We will get your money to you within 24 hours for Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrency) and any player transfer vouchers

Guaranteed Gameplay

We have a zero-tolerance approach towards interruptions to your play.

  • No matter the season or the circumstances – you will always have a variety of exciting wagers to choose from in the sportsbook
  • No pre-match wager cancellations due to incorrectly posted lines or information
  • We will always follow our onsite Poker Tournament Cancellation Policy

Self-service Solutions

We want any questions you may have answered – even faster.

  • We will continue to expand our onsite Help Centre based on your feedback
  • You have access to a fully-moderated and player-led Bovada Community
  • When required, we will use a 3rd party resolution to ensure every player feels fairly treated
  • Every bonus will be issued to you according to the Bonus Terms and Conditions onsite
  • If you do prefer an agent, we’ll answer all of your chat requests within minutes and reply to your emails within 48 hours

‘No Excuse’ Notifications

We guarantee honest and timely communication without any excuses.

  • If an unexpected site outage occurs, we will let our players know the details within 60 minutes
  • If we determine that any player deserves extra consideration as result of unexpected downtime, we will resolve it within 2 days
  • You will be given notice a minimum of 24 hours before any planned maintenance
  • We will let you know 7 days in advance of any changes to existing programs, products or bonuses

Our commitment to every Bovada player is to continue working hard at improving every day, giving you the best online gambling experience possible.

Thank you for playing with us.

April 23, 2020

Last Minute NFL Draft Betting Props and More

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 4:03 PM

Football fans are having a good week. 

The NFL Draft is tonight, Rob Gronkowski un-retired and Tom Brady is going to tee it up with Peyton Manning, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. 

Details of the Champions for Charity golf match that will be televised live on TNT next month have yet to be released, but that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers at SportsBetting from creating some very fun and unique prop bets for the event.

Do you think Tiger and Peyton will say “deflate” to get under Brady’s skin with a little trash talk? The odds say there’s a chance. Or how about an “audible” or “Omaha” on the course? Will there be a hole-in-one?

Woods and Manning are decent favorites in the match odds. Manning is favored to record the most birdies, and find the fairway on the first hole.

Current odds:

The Match: Champions for Charity winner

Tiger Woods/Peyton Manning -200

Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady +160

Which logo will be on front of Tom Brady’s hat?

TB12 -400

Buccaneers +250

Will “Gronk” be said by any player?

Yes -300

No +200

Will “audible” be said by any player?

Yes -120

No -120

Will “Omaha” be said by any player?

Yes +175

No -250

Will “deflate” be said by any player?

Yes -200

No +150

Will any player spike a football?

Yes +150

No -200

Will any player spike a golf ball?

Yes -150

No +110

Will a Lombardi Trophy be seen during broadcast?

Yes -800

No +450

First player to have football highlight shown

Peyton Manning -130

Tom Brady -110

Total commercials Peyton Manning is in during broadcast

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Which player will have the most birdies? 

Peyton Manning -175

Tom Brady +135

Which player will have the most bogeys or worse? (Must finish par stroke to count. Manager’s decision.)

Peyton Manning +120

Tom Brady -160

Will Peyton Manning record an FIR on Hole No. 1?

Yes -150

No +110

Will Tom Brady record an FIR on Hole No. 1?

Yes -120

No -120

Will Peyton Manning record a GIR on Hole No. 1?

Yes +110

No -150

Will Tom Brady record a GIR on Hole No. 1?

Yes +150

No -200

Will there be a hole-in-one?

Yes +950

No -3500

Will Donald Trump attend?

Yes +800

No -1500

Bucs’ odds drop after Gronk trade

The Buccaneers are beginning to feel like the Browns of last offseason. Every football fan was buying into the hype, and Cleveland became one of the most bet on teams to win the Super Bowl. 

The Bucs are now one of the top three favorites on the Super Bowl LV odds board. Here are the five teams with the best odds:

Chiefs 13/2

Ravens 7/1

49ers 12/1

Buccaneers 12/1

Saints 14/1

However, a representative from the sportsbook suggests that the Gronkowski trade didn’t really impact the odds for anything other than public perception. 

“Bettors react to big news and Gronk coming out of retirement to reunite with his quarterback is big news,” Robert Cooper, odds manager at SportsBetting.ag, said. “We have to move the odds because we anticipate additional action from bettors, but in terms of the algorithms and power rankings we use to formulate the numbers Gronk doesn’t move the needle.”

All at SportsBetting

April 18, 2020

The Last Dance Betting Props; Michael Jordan Documentary ESPN

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 8:02 PM

The sports world has been teased about the Michael Jordan documentary for months, and we finally get our first look this weekend.

‘The Last Dance’ will air on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, and some bookies are offering up ways to wager while you watch (you know, since there aren’t any actual sports to bet on at the moment.) Jordan should probably approve.

SportsBetting has created a dozen prop bets for first of two episodes set to air Sunday. All props except the last one are for Episode 1 (the first hour) only. 

Here there are, along with some unrequested commentary some of you might enjoy (for those that don’t, sorry).

Will “The Last Dance” documentary win an Emmy Award in 2020?

Yes +300

No -500

(Ouch. No love from the early voters.)

Will Michael Jordan cry?

Yes -120

No -120

(There’s an MJ teary-eyed meme waiting to happen)

Will LeBron James be seen? 

Yes -120

No -120

(Will the GOAT be interviewed in the other GOAT’S feature doc?)

Will Kobe Bryant be seen?

Yes -300

No +200

(Have to imagine the producers feature him early after January’s tragedy)

Will “gambling” be said?

Yes -200

No +150

(We know Jordan skipped White House visit to golf and gamble, but when will that story be told?)

Will “Space Jam” be said or clip shown?

Yes -120

No -120

(Come on…we could all use some Wayne Knight on Sunday night.)

Will “Sirius” song be heard?

Yes -500

No +300

(This feels like the lock of the century, take out the mortgage.)

When will Air Jordan logo be seen?

Before 10 minutes (+150)

After 10 minutes (-200)

(Tough one…will Disney/ESPN try to hide their non-products?)

Will Jordan’s game-winning national championship shot be shown?

Yes -300

No +200

(Patrick Ewing here we come.)

Will impeachment trial of Bill Clinton be shown or mentioned? 

Yes -140

No +100

(Significant event in October 1998, the setting of Episode 1.)

Will Yankees World Series Championship be shown or mentioned? 

Yes +100

No -140

(See above. And (un)fortunately, they left off Britney Spears’ debut single “…Baby One More Time.”)

Will Barack Obama tweet about the documentary?

Yes +200

No -300

(He’s in it at some point, but probably more important matters to tend to this week.)

First person to be shown? 

Phil Jackson +300

Scottie Pippen +350

Kobe Bryant +400

Magic Johnson +500

Dennis Rodman +500

Deloris Jordan +800

Barack Obama +1000

Steve Kerr +1000

Bob Costas +1200

Charles Barkley +1400

Justin Timberlake +1400

Jerry Seinfeld +2000

Pat Riley +2000

Adam Silver +2500

(We all assume MJ will be the first person shown, so who’s next?)

OffshoreInsiders.com will hopefully resume being the top place for sports picks very soon. Get vetted sportsbooks and more. Check out the best dad jokes YouTube channel Hey Abby D. 

April 17, 2020

Facts Over Agenda In MLB Betting: Big Chalks Are Good Bets

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 2:54 PM

I recently conducted a video explaining just a handful of the motives why computer software is so significant in thrashing the bookmakers. High atop the list of reasons is that it helps eliminate biases. 

To this day, I get the shakes just thinking about laying heavy lumber in MLB. Bearing in mind home field advantage, I defined big favorites as more than -255 at home or -211 on the road. But I did eliminate the outlier of bigger than -308. Disclaimer, one could argue there was some back-fitting to maximize units won. Still, it does not nullify the truth that goes against my DNA: large favorites are +88.85 percent on the moneyline and much better +105.91 on runline for 7.9 ROI. 

I suppose it’s always easy to back fit theories. The reality that the runline is even more advantageous gets back to another fundamental of betting: the best way to maximize profits is to minimize losses. I’ve underscored when line-shopping, it’s not just about getting the hook, but also and more so about getting the best juice. Excluding key numbers, a half-point is generally worth about .04 to .06 juice at most. For example, I’d rather get +4 -102 than +4.5 and -110. 

You must acknowledge that you will lose 40something percent of the time. Reduced juice is imperative to acquiring the biggest payouts. When wagering the runline on large favorites, you save an enormous amount of money with each loss or winning a lot more with each win (depending on if your bet amount is based on “to win” or “to risk.”)

The drawback is you do get banged if the garganuan favorite wins by exactly one-run.  But the scientific results demonstrate the tradeoff says to lay -1.5 runs. 

I don’t exercise contrarian information when it comes to baseball moneylines or even runlines because they also incorporate juice. Hence, I’m not the expert that I am in other sports in studying betting tendencies. However, it does stand to reason that even the chalk-lovers among us get sticker shock with numbers above -200. 

In fact, I have noted, certified by data, that in NBA with totals, there are limits to how much is too much. Once totals get in the 240 range, the public backs off overs. Hence the posted price on favorites well above 200 is such a deterrent even to Joey Bagofdonuts that their value manifests.

Regardless of hypothesis, facts are facts, and I have to bite the bullet often, but luckily more with runlines. Still even at -1.5 in the -170 range pays off, despite my apprehension on risking so much vigorish. 

It is less of a surprise that big favorites execute even better on Opening Day, be it home or road. Just as one example, road favorites of -125 or more have a whopping 18.2 ROI on the moneyline and 15.9 on runline in the first game of the season. 

Perhaps one would theorize home underdogs would do well. That’s about the only “intangible” one could argue, but 35-plus years of experience decrees that intangibles are overplayed. Additionally, there are clearly no letdown or lookahead situations (they are playing the same team in their next game anyway), so it makes perfect sense that there is nothing to counterbalance the straightforward superior team winning. 

I’ve built my reputation as “undisputed king of the underdog and small favorites,” but isolated some notable exceptions. I never thought I’d say this, but the newest weaponry in my betting arsenal is laying the lumber—though by and large on the runline. 

The author Joe Duffy is one of the most quoted sports bettors of all-time. CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place for both approved sportsbooks and winning sports handicapping advice. Check out this video on bad beats

April 16, 2020

UFC 250 Odds Posted

Filed under: Uncategorized — Joe Duffy @ 2:36 PM

With the full fight card for UFC 250 confirmed, oddsmakers wasted little time setting lines for each of the bouts. 

According to SportsBetting Tony Ferguson is a -175 favorite for the interim lightweight title fight against Justin Gaethje. 

In the other two title bouts, Henry Cejudo is a -225 favorite over Dominick Cruz and Amanda Nunes is a -430 favorite versus Felicia Spencer. 

The complete list of UFC 250 odds is below and you can access real-time odds (subject to change) here:  

Of course, the bookies are skeptic that this event will occur in less than a month as planned, not even giving it a 50-50 shot.

Will UFC 250 take place on May 9, 2020?

Yes +150

No -200

(Odds equate to a 40% implied probability that it will happen on schedule)

UFC 250 Odds

Tony Ferguson -175

Justin Gaethje +150

Henry Cejudo -225

Dominick Cruz +190

Amanda Nunes -430

Felicia Spencer +330

Francis Ngannou -275

Jairzinho Rozenstruik +235

Jeremy Stephens +205

Calvin Kattar -240

Donald Cerrone +130

Anthony Pettis -150

Greg Hardy -180

Yorgan de Castro +155

Alexey Oleynik +260

Fabricio Werdum -310

Carla Esparza -135

Michelle Waterson +115

Ronaldo Souza -145

Uriah Hall +125

Vicente Luque -250

Niko Price +210

Charles Rosa +165

Bryce Mitchell -190

When sports returns, OffshoreInsiders.com resumes being the headquarters for winners. See JoeDuffy.Net for recommendations on best casino bonuses while we are social distancing. 

April 14, 2020

Bored? Not at MyBookie; Incredible Bonuses During Covid Lockdown

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 8:16 PM

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