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Depleted Jazz

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The Utah Jazz haven’t exactly been tearing up NBA hardwoods since the final page was turned on 2006.

And now they’ve added injury to insult.

The Jazz, who are 6-7 since Jan. 5, will be without their starting forwards Monday night against visiting New Jersey. Leading scorer and rebounder Carlos Boozer will miss his first game this season with an injured knee while Andrei Kirilenko is out with a sprained right ankle.

The extent of Boozer’s injury will be known after more tests are conducted. He has enjoyed his finest season at 22 points and 12 rebounds a game, which is fourth in the NBA. Boozer hurt the knee Saturday night when he collided with New Orleans center Tyson Chandler.

Kirilenko, who missed five games earlier in the year with an injury to the same ankle, is expected to return later this week.

The injuries have played a role in the odds for Monday night’s game, but WagerWeb.com still lists the Jazz as 2-point favorites against the Nets, who broke a three-game losing streak Saturday night in Denver.

SIGH OF RELIEF IN WINDY CITY: Chicago Bulls fans must have seen the season go up in smoke when center Ben Wallace crumpled to the floor after a collision with Miami’s Udonis Haslem Saturday night.

They held their collective breath, but didn’t need to fret. An MRI on Wallace’s left knee showed no structural damage. Wallace is listed as day-to-day and could return as early as Wednesday night, when the Bulls start a seven-game road trip against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Wallace is averaging 6.5 points and 10.1 rebounds in his first season with Chicago since signing a free-agent contract during the offseason. He is eighth in the league at 2.12 blocked shots a game.

DRIBBLES: Talk about a glorious return. Milwaukee guard Mo Williams had missed the previous nine games with a sprained shoulder, but he scored a game-high 30 points, including a game-winning running jumper with 3.l seconds remaining, in a 107-105 victory Sunday over New York. … Cleveland threw a brief scare into visiting Phoenix on Sunday, but the Suns pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 115-100 road victory. The Suns will shoot for their 18th consecutive win Monday night in Minnesota. They are a 5-point favorites, according to WagerWeb.com. … The battered Boston Celtics welcomed the return of swingman Wally Szczerbiak, but still lost Sunday to visiting Washington, 105-91. Their 11-game losing streak is their longest in 10 years. They also set a franchise mark by dropping nine in a row at home and have fallen behind Philadelphia into last place in the Atlantic Division. … Wizards forward Antawn Jamison has certainly given high-scoring point guard Gilbert Arenas plenty of offensive help recently. Jamison has scored 69 points on 26-of-45 (58 percent) shooting in the last two games.

Posted by Mike Godsey at 03:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

NBA Props

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

As your resident Fantasy Sensei, it’s my job to provide you with tips and tricks you can use to dominate your fantasy leagues. Winning a fantasy league is great and a real good way to trash talk your friends, but at the end of the day all that smack doesn’t pay the bills. You might win $100-$200 in your league, but there is a way to use that skill to make some real money.

Most of the online sportsbooks offer what are called proposition bets for all the major sports. These are bets that are different from your standard point-spread or over/under bet in that you are usually betting on a single player to do something in a game. The skills you use to do well in fantasy (knowing playing time, hot/cold players, defensive matchups, etc.) can be applied in proposition betting as well.

There are some books (WagerWeb.com included) that offer prop bets for individual NBA players. If you are a winning fantasy player, you can use the same stats you use to set your daily or weekly lineups to win money betting on NBA props. As an example, if you have done research and discovered that Lamar Odom has scored much better at home than he does on the road, you could possibly find a “Lamar Odom over/under x amount of points” bet on the day he has a home game and take advantage of that knowledge. In this case you’d bet Odom over whatever the amount of points is. If he was on the road for that particular game, you would bet under.

There are not many books out there that offer props that are unique to their site (many books copy other books’ lines), so it pays to research as many books as you can and have money in as many of these books with unique lines as possible. The reason to do this is you have access to as many “soft” or beatable lines as you can. When you bet NBA props, it is very important to be able to bet them right as they get posted on the site. If you don’t get them right as they post, sharp bettors will force the book to change the original line, and it will make a less advantageous situation for you.

There are people who are very successful in prop betting, and they use the exact same skill set that any successful fantasy player would use. Defensive matchups in the NBA are extremely important and knowing which teams are stronger or weaker on that end of the court is crucial. You can study the stats for scoring defense, rebound margin, assist differential, and home/road splits and gain a huge advantage over most prop oddsmakers.

There are many soft lines posted, and the reason for that is simply because the oddsmakers don’t have the time to do that in-depth research that a bettor might have. When there are 13 NBA games in a night, you’re talking about bets on up to 60-70 players, and when you see that many players posted, there are bound to be a few exploitable lines in there. The key to being a successful prop bettor is knowing which trends to look at (I use home/road splits, recent performance, and playing-time evaluation in addition to the defensive matchup) and taking advantage.

Before the bets get posted every day, I will set a line in my head for each player that I think will be put up. Let’s say for example, I think Dwyane Wade is going to have a total of 28 points. If I see a line like 25 put up, I’m going to jump on the over as soon as I see it. Being prepared ahead of time is critical because as I said, those lines move very quickly and you have to be ready. If I saw a 31 for Wade, I’d pound the under.

Prop betting is becoming more and more popular as people get more involved in fantasy sports, and I think you’ll see a lot more props for all sports as we go forward. If you are prepared, know which numbers to study, and have access to the bets right as they post, you can become a big winner!

Posted by Mike Godsey at 03:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Colts Take Their Time

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

If we're such a good story, if we're such a hot item, then you can wait a day for us.

In essence, that's what Colts coach Tony Dungy and his AFC champions were saying to the grumpy media types who have been up in arms over the fact that Indianapolis waited until today to arrive in Miami. The Bears? They cooperated and, like most Super Bowl teams, showed up on site, on Sunday afternoon, a full week before the big game.

The Colts? They stayed in Indiana and jumped on a charter Monday morning.

"We understand the Super Bowl is not going to be normal. We just felt that that was the way to go," Dungy said of the delayed strategy. "We’ll get a chance to get down there, and let the guys enjoy the city."

Perhaps that's the biggest reason he slowed things down. Miami isn't the greatest place in the world to practice and prepare for the biggest game of the season, the tilt that Indianapolis is a 6.5-point favorite for on WagerWeb.com. There are distractions aplenty. Maybe one less day of those distractions will prove beneficial.

"Miami is a great place to visit and there are all kinds of things you can get into," said Bears rookie return man Devin Hester, who played at the University of Miami. "We do want to have a little fun, but be careful of your surroundings. We’re here to play a football game."

So are the Colts, who will have many a question to answer on Tuesday, when Media Day commences and all those grouchy sportswriters can finally press record on their handhelds.

"We put our schedule together for what we thought was going to be the best for us to win," Dungy said. "My thought was to take a couple of days away from it physically and emotionally."

And it's hard to argue with him. After all, the Colts, unlike the Bears, had to win three games to get to Miami. They've been facing critical games, week after week, for more than a month. Chicago, on the other hand, was on cruise control leading up to the postseason, then had the benefit of the bye week, and didn't have to travel a mile to play either of its two playoff games.

"I just want them to relax," Dungy said.

Mission, apparently, accomplished. Now, it's time to get to work.

HELP FOR ELI: Or so they think. The Giants, late on Sunday, named Chris Palmer their new quarterbacks coach. The former head coach of the Cleveland Browns will now be the primary tutor for struggling starter Eli Manning. Palmer has also worked on the staffs of New England, Jacksonville, Houston and Dallas.

Palmer is a decent hire, but you can look at his past results either way. On one hand, he truly helped Drew Bledsoe while with the Cowboys, and Mark Brunell when he was with the Jaguars. Palmer worked under his current boss, Tom Coughlin, in Jacksonville, by the way.

But the jury is still out on David Carr, whom Palmer mentored in Houston. And Tim Couch, whom the new Browns staked their franchise to, was a complete bust.

Where Eli falls in that mix is anyone's guess.

EXTRA POINTS: Maybe this is the reason we didn't hear much from Richard Seymour this postseason. The Patriots defensive lineman will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason, but shouldn't miss any of Coach Bill Belichick's organized team activities. ... Former Giants running back Maurice Carthon, who was fired as offensive coordinator in Cleveland halfway through this season, could land in Arizona as a running backs coach this week.

Posted by Mike Godsey at 03:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

NBA First-Half Fantasy All-Stars

By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The final results have just come in on this season’s NBA All-Star voting, and while you see the typical names on the list of starters (Wade, LeBron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, etc…) for the East and West, in fantasy basketball all of these guys are pretty much doing what was expected of them. Those aren’t the guys that are going to win you a fantasy title because they give you the same great numbers year after year and you select them with your 1st and 2nd round picks. No, the players that win you fantasy titles are the ones you draft in the late rounds or acquire off free agency early in the year that become solid to outstanding NBA starters, so while you see the big names on the real All-Star squad, my All-Star team is going to look a lot different.

I’ll break these down by position because in fantasy, your lineup usually consists of point guards and shooting guards, not just “guards” like they do in the real All-Star game. Here are the All-Stars from a fantasy perspective:

Point Guard:
Maurice Williams, Milwaukee – Mo was most likely a last-round or next-to-last round selection in most drafts, but has played like a 3rd-4th rounder. Williams was a backup last year to T.J. Ford, but became a starter this year when Ford was traded to Toronto in the off-season. Mo has been very solid across the board, averaging 17 ppg, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and just over 1 3-pointer and 1 steal per game. Unfortunately he got hurt a couple of weeks ago and it’s now looking like he won’t be back for at least another couple of weeks, so hopefully his owners can wait it out until he returns. Williams might not make the end-of-year team because the Bucks acquired Earl Boykins to fill in for him and Boykins has played just as well as Williams did. It remains to be seen what will happen because the team now has 5 guys for 3 spots (Mo, Boykins, Michael Redd, Charlie Bell, and Ruben Patterson), but as far as the 1st half is concerned, Mo is definitely an all-star.

Deron Williams, Utah – After a rookie season where he lagged in comparison to Chris Paul, the other PG taken early in the 2006 draft, Williams has shown why he was so highly regarded coming into it. D.Will was probably taken a few rounds before Mo so he gets the second spot instead of the first on my team, but his numbers are very close to his namesake. The one area where Deron is unquestionably better than Mo is in assists, where he averages 9.1 per game, tied for 2nd in the league with Jason Kidd. The rest of his numbers are almost identical to Mo, with Mo being a slightly better rebounder. There is no reason why Deron can’t continue this play and could take over the top spot by the end of the season.

Honorable Mention: Leandro Barbosa, Phoenix; Earl Boykins, Denver-Milwaukee; Jarrett Jack, Portland

Shooting Guard:
Kevin Martin, Sacramento – Martin is another guy like Mo Williams, who was probably drafted very late if at all, but has put up almost “real” All-Star numbers. Martin has been an outstanding shooter, making almost 50% of his shots from the field and 88% from the line. In leagues that count those two categories he has made a world of difference because he’s taking a lot of shots, enough to average over 20 points per game. Add in 1.6 3-pointers per game and 1.2 steals and you’re looking at some great fantasy numbers. Martin’s not much of a rebounder or passer but you can get those stats from your PG and your big guys.

Mike Miller, Memphis – Miller has just become a fantasy stud this season, combining deadly long-range shooting with a new-found love for rebounding and passing. The new uptempo game they are playing in Memphis is perfect for Miller, who was probably taken in the mid-late rounds in most drafts. Previously he had been known as just a 3-point shooter but this year he has really stepped up his game, going from 1.9 per game to 2.8 this year, which is 4th in the league behind Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, and J.R. Smith. The thing that’s making Miller a much better player this year are his assists (4.4 per game) and rebounds (5.9), which are very strong in comparison to most of the other players at the position. Miller is a true swing player, playing both shooting guard and small forward, but I put him here because there are two small forwards that I couldn’t keep off the team.

Honorable Mention: Monta Ellis, Golden State; J.R. Smith, Denver; Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia

Small Forward:
Josh Howard, Dallas – Howard is one guy on this list that might make the “real” team, but that’s more because of his defense and his team’s record. For the fantasy team he makes it because he was probably a mid-round selection who is putting up 2nd round numbers. There is only one out of eight categories where Howard isn’t putting up at least good numbers, and that’s assists, which is no big deal for a small forward. You’d like a guy to have at least 4 assists per game but when he averages 20 points, 7.2 rebounds (outstanding for a SF), 1.5 3’s made, 1.3 steals, and even gets 1 block per game, you’re not going to complain when he’s only getting you 2 assists. Howard is a nice percentage shooter also, making 46% from the field and 83% from the line, so when you add all that up, you have your starter at SF.

Caron Butler, Washington – It’s hard to believe the Wizards got this guy for Kwame Brown, isn’t it? Butler has a shot at making the East All-Stars because of his outstanding improvement and the fact the Wiz currently have the best record in the conference. This guy is probably the biggest reason for the team’s improvement, despite the heroics of Mr. Hibachi Arenas. Caron is having a dream season, averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds (the best rebounding SF in the game if you don’t count Shawn Marion), 4 assists, and 2 steals. He’s also shooting 48% from the field and 88% from the line. Those are just excellent all-around numbers. Butler is not a big shooter of the 3-ball, so hopefully if he’s on your team you’ve got some others who can do that, but with those other fantastic numbers he’s giving you, you’re probably sitting in a very nice position in your league.

Honorable Mention: Luol Deng, Chicago; Kyle Korver, Philadelphia; Matt Barnes, Golden State

Power Forward:
Al Jefferson, Boston – It took a month or so for Jefferson to get into the starting lineup thanks to the brilliant coaching of Doc Rivers, but now that he’s there, he might not come out for 10-12 years. Jefferson has just been a beast down low, averaging 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game since December. For a guy who was probably acquired off the waiver wire, he’s really helping your team right now and is probably the best player that didn’t get drafted in most drafts this year.

David Lee, NY Knicks – If that honor doesn’t go to Jefferson, it might go to Lee, who has come out of nowhere to average almost 11 rebounds per game, and that’s in only 30 minutes per contest. If Isiah Thomas was smart he’d be playing Lee 40 minutes per game and then he’d probably be the leading rebounder in the league. Lee’s not a big scorer yet, only averaging 11 points per game, but he averages a fantastic 61% from the field and 79% from the line, which make him a valuable member of a fantasy team. By having a guy like Lee on your team you can afford to have a couple of low-percentage scorers (i.e. Allen Iverson or Gilbert Arenas) to balance it out.

Honorable Mention: Zach Randolph, Portland and Carlos Boozer, Utah. Both guys are obviously having great years and are very nice values compared to where they were drafted, but remember this team is about guys who are going to win fantasy titles for you, and while I’m sure teams who own Zach and Booz are doing well, there are more 1st place teams who have Jefferson and/or Lee.

Center:
Andris Biedrins, Golden State: Anytime you can draft a guy who will get you 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per game in the last round, you’ve done very well for yourself. Biedrins is the guy who fits that description this year, and while he’s fallen off a bit recently, owners who have had him since the beginning of the year are sitting pretty. It remains to be seen how the recent trade the Warriors made where they acquired Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington will affect Biedrins, but as long as he gets the minutes, he’ll keep producing the rebounds and blocks. He also shoots a lovely 62% from the field, so he’s like David Lee with the added bonus of 2 blocks per game.

Eddy Curry, NY Knicks: I didn’t think I’d ever see this guy on anyone’s all-star team because of his supposed attitude problems, but apparently Isiah has made one good coaching move this year. Curry’s having a career-best season, averaging 19.5 points on 59% shooting. Eddy was probably a late-round selection and while he doesn’t rebound as well as most big guys (7 per game) and doesn’t really give you any other numbers except good shooting and scoring, for his price tag he’s been a very nice value. If he could ever use that body to get some boards and block some shots he could be a real All-Star, but fantasy owners are still happy with him this year.

Honorable Mention: Mehmet Okur, Utah; Nick Collison, Seattle; Mark Blount, Minnesota; Alonzo Mourning, Miami

If you have a few of my All-Stars you are probably sitting pretty in your league and could be dominating if your stud players (the “real” All-Stars) have been healthy. The key for the 2nd half of the year is to pay attention the box scores every night and see who’s getting more playing time than they used to. That’s the way you can acquire guys ahead of your competition and stake your claim to your fantasy championship!

Posted by Mike Godsey at 03:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Like most of America, Robert Walker stared at the TV in February 2002 and watched as Adam Vinatieri's 48-yard field goal won the Patriots Super Bowl XXXVI. Unlike most of America, Walker figures the kick saved his job.
Walker is the director of the race and sports book at MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. He sets the lines for 14 different properties in Vegas, and on this day he was sweating out the largest bet he'd ever taken on the big game.

Someone bet $4.6 million on the Rams to beat the Patriots on that day. When Vinatieri's kick cleared the crossbar, Walker may have been the happiest man in America.

"I've always had a soft spot for the Patriots and Adam Vinatieri since then," Walker said. "If he doesn't make that field goal, you might be talking to someone else right now."

Next Sunday is the biggest holiday of the year in Las Vegas. Last year, a record $94 million was bet legally on the Super Bowl. This year, Vegas hopes to reach $100 million. The men in charge of bringing in all that money spent last weekend trying to figure out the best point spread to make the most amount of money.

Set the number too high and the underdog takes in too much money. Set it too low and everyone jumps on the favorite.

For Walker and his brethren, these are the two biggest weeks of the year. From the regular betting line to prop bets, they have to make placing a bet on the big game as tempting as possible.

This year's matchup between the Colts and Bears has them thinking big bucks.

"I think it's a phenomenal matchup," said Chuck Esposito, the assistant VP of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace. "The Bears are one of the most popular teams with the public. The Colts have arguably the most popular player in Peyton Manning. You have the Colts offense vs. the Bears defense."

Each of the sports-book directors interviewed said they entered last weekend with an idea of what the line would be for each potential matchup. Walker even posted lines at the Mirage for each scenario to gauge the public's feelings. They all felt the Colts would be around 61/2- or 7-point favorites if they wound up matched with the Bears. When watching the games, they paid attention for any injuries or performances that might affect the way the public would bet.

John Avello, the director at race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas, thought the line would be Colts minus-61/2, but then decided on 7 after watching the Colts' performance in the second half against the Patriots.

"In the third and fourth quarter, all cylinders were firing," Avello said. "That was the last impression left in watchers' or bettors' minds. I'm thinking we have Peyton Manning, one of the best passers, against the Bears, who have a quarterback [Rex Grossman] that people are unsure of. But the Bears do have a great following. Instead of 61/2, I'm going to use 7."

The line was posted immediately after the Colts-Patriots game ended last Sunday. Walker, who posted the Colts minus-61/2, saw the first seven or eight bets come in on the Colts and moved it to 7.

Most directors rely on staffs of handicappers to help them come up with the number. Once the line is posted, plenty of other people also offer up opinions.

"When I post that number, I get people running back telling me I made a mistake," Walker said. "If some think it's too high and some think it's too low, I know I have it right."

After the line and over/under are set, the sports book staffs try to finalize their prop bets, which have increased in popularity in recent years. Esposito said his staff has been working on them for the last six weeks. Caesars is credited with staring the prop bet when it posted odds on William "Refrigerator" Perry scoring a touchdown in Super Bowl XX.

"We'll have 200 to 250 different prop bets on the board," Esposito said. "You name it, we've got it on the board."

Source: NY Post

Posted by Mike Godsey at 03:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

He reaches for his new set of specs, just another indication that Kenny White's eyes spend way too much time staring at these dizzying digits.

''I just started wearing glasses three or four days ago,'' said White, the CEO of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ``My eyes are shot from all these numbers.''

White digs through a stack of papers within this organized mess he calls his desk. He's in search of his team power ratings, which he develops through statistical analysis to help him devise the betting lines for nearly every national sporting event.

Two unsuspecting tutorials surface near the pile as he searches: there's a book titled Sports Betting 101 and a cassette tape called How to be a Winning Sports Bettor. Indeed, it is an odd sight, like finding sheet music for Chopsticks near Mozart's piano.

White knows numbers. He knows them better than bettors, which is why 90 percent of the sports books in Las Vegas consult him before they accept a single wager. White also knows this: Only one number matters more than all of the rest.

It's the Super Bowl betting line. And it's Indianapolis by seven.

''Absolutely,'' said White, who devised the line with a group of oddsmakers in this office after last week's conference championship games. ``It's extremely important.

``It's the most important line of the year, simply because of the volume that will be wagered on this game.''

That, of course, is the reason White has all of these binders full of depth charts and injury reports and statistics. It's why he still immerses himself in nearly every book written about sports betting.

A blunt reminder of his job's significance can be found simply by looking out one of the windows in this unsuspecting office building.

On the other side of the airport runway, about a mile from this dark corner of the glittery city, is the Las Vegas Strip. By the time Sunday's game kicks off, more than $80 million will have been wagered on the Super Bowl at the casinos on The Strip.

''It's almost like a national holiday,'' said Chris Andrews, who runs Leroy's Race & Sports Book inside the same building as the Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ``A lot of people gear their vacation around coming out here for the Super Bowl.''

Even as online overseas gambling sites have surged in recent years, the amount of money wagered on the Super Bowl has continued to increase. Each of the past two Super Bowls has broken the previous record for the amount of money wagered on the big game, White said. Along with his staff, White plays a major role in who ends up with the loot.

But for now, on this particular Thursday in mid-January, there isn't much sports action within any of those casinos. At the MGM Grand, the area where sports bets are placed (called the sports book) isn't bustling as it will be this weekend.

Only a few of the 85 seats are filled, and guests have the option to watch 49 TV screens. On this afternoon, there are 15 sports events being shown.

On Sunday, however, there only will be one: the Super Bowl. Every sports book in town will be packed with people tuning into that same money-pulling game.

''It's just a mass of people,'' said Robert Walker, the director of the sports book at the Mirage. ``It will be wall-to-wall, people sitting on the floors in the front. And it's like that at every book in town. It's like those two minutes of the Kentucky Derby. That's how the whole first quarter of the Super Bowl is. It's crazy.''

Walker, like White, also faces some serious stress when it comes to the betting line on Super Bowl Sunday. Most of Walker's worries begin to build on the actual day of the game, unlike White, who faces his tough tasks weeks before when he sets the line.

`RULE OF 10'

Walker, whose sports book at the Mirage actually serves as the hub for the sports books at Mandalay Bay, the Bellagio and MGM Grand, will watch as weeks of hype culminate within those casinos. That's when his ''rule of 10'' kicks into gear.

''Everybody bets 10 times as much as they normally do,'' Walker said.

And in some cases, those bets can creep excessively high. In 2002, Walker accepted the highest bet ever taken inside a Las Vegas sports book wagered on a Super Bowl. The wager of $4.6 million, which first had to be approved by Bellagio president Bill McBeath, was for the St. Louis Rams to beat the New England Patriots with the money line.

''The Patriots won outright, thank God,'' Walker said. ``Otherwise, you'd be talking to somebody different right now.''

Still, even when considering the significance and magnitude of the bet, Walker said the Super Bowl has an intriguing way of bringing people from all different classes of society together.

Whether the bettor is making big wagers or small, the goal is the same: to win.

''That's the one thing about that game that's unique,'' Walker said. ``You might have a guy that bet $100 sitting next to a guy that bet $50,000 or more, and they're still cheering the same way. The camaraderie is unique between those two people who have the same bet, no matter how much they put down.''

In Miami, the score of the game will dictate the winners and losers. In Las Vegas, however, it will be the outcome of the spread that dictates the mood of many. So, unless the Colts win by more than seven points, it won't matter whether they hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

If the Colts fail to beat the spread, they still would be Las Vegas' biggest losers this weekend -- which is precisely what makes oddsmakers like White so important.

''Ideally, if seven is the number, we would open at seven and stay there [rather than moving the line because too many bettors are picking one side],'' Andrews said. ``That would be great. We also want the game to end nowhere near the number so we don't have to refund anybody. That would be fantastic.''

IT'S UNPREDICTABLE

Problem is, it doesn't always work out that way. Over the years, oddsmakers and sports books have faced their share of devastating days -- few as terrible for the industry as the 1979 Super Bowl.

Although White is quick to note he wasn't around for this one, the line for the Super Bowl matchup between the Steelers and the Cowboys was initially set at 3 ½ with the Steelers as the favorites. But because of lopsided betting, the line moved to 4 ½ by the day of the game.

The final score? The Steelers won by four points, 35-31.

''That was one of the biggest nightmares this state has seen,'' White said. ``Because if the number lands in the middle like that, you end up paying both sides.''

Under his watch, though, White said the Las Vegas Sports Consultants has provided a line that has yielded winning results for casinos -- and losing results for the fans -- each year.

So pick your team, and decide what you will about White's decision to give the Colts a seven-point edge. You also might want to keep in mind this one little piece of advice from Bears defensive end Alex Brown about that ever-important Las Vegas line:

``Those people in Vegas don't play football.''

That's true. White's profession involves something far different. In the end, however, Brown and White are after the same goal: They both want to win.

''Crunching numbers,'' White said. ``That's all it is. I'll be in here all day long, just constantly trying to make sure we're picking the perfect number.''

Source: Miami Herald

Posted by Mike Godsey at 03:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Formula One Changes

By Brit Fryer
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The deck was shuffled again in Formula One. So, if you haven’t been following which driver is driving what in 2007, here’s a brief overview.

At The Front
Ferrari: Finn Kimi Raikkonen (+125 to win the F1 championship on WagerWeb.com), formerly of McLaren, inherits Michael Schumacher’s car, one that won’t lose a wing or suffer mechanical failure every other race. And Brazilian Felipe Massa, who broke through in 2006, vows not to play second fiddle to his new teammate.

Vodafone McLaren Mercedes: Ron Dennis’ team lured Fernando Alonso (+200, WagerWeb.com), the two-time defending world champion, away from Renault. He’ll pair up with Lewis Hamilton, last year’s GP2 winner.

Renault: Clearly fielding the dominant car the past two seasons with Alonso, boss Flavio Briatore will rely on veteran Giancarlo Fisichella. Heikki Kovalainen was promoted from a testing role to a race seat.

In The Middle
BMW Sauber: The team terminated Jacques Villeneuve last year and replaced him with Polish upstart Robert Kubica, who performed admirably. Kubica and teammate Nick Heidfeld should do fairly well in the team’s second season under BMW control.

Honda: Formerly British American Racing, Honda closed the gap in 2006. Englishman Jenson Button posted his first grand prix victory in thrilling fashion at the Hungaroring and outperformed teammate Rubens Barrichello.

Red Bull Racing: Red Bull regressed in 2006, scoring 18 less points than in 2005. David Coulthard, who earned the team’s lone podium finish last season, welcomes Australian Mark Webber, who’s trying to rebound from a disastrous
stint at Williams.

Toyota: The team with the ultimate financial backing posted one podium in all of 2006, but Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli enter their second season on Bridgestone rubber.

Williams: Frank Williams’ once-powerful team has been rubbish lately. Nico Rosberg limped through his first season in F1 as Williams totaled 20 DNFs. Austrian Alexander Wurz gets his first chance at a full-time drive.

At The Back
Spyker: In September, the former Jordan and Midland team was sold to Dutch sports car manufacturer Spyker. The drivers? Christjian Albers has never scored a point in his two F1 seasons, and Adrian Sutil has never made a grand prix start.

Super Aguri: Short on speed and just about everything else, the Japanese team retained Takuma Sato and handed the second seat to England’s Anthony Davidson, once an impressive test driver for Honda.

Toro Rosso: The Red Bull-backed team, at times, outran its big brother. Though no official announcement has been made, Italian Vitantonio Luizzi and American Scott Speed are expected to return in 2007. Remember, Toro Rosso
was lowly Minardi not long ago.

NEW DRIVES: January is the month Formula One teams show their hand.Renault and Honda unveiled their 2007 machines Wednesday — Renault the R27 and Honda the RA107. Red Bull followed with its RB3. This all came after BMW Sauber, Ferrari, McLaren and Toyota showed off their stuff.McLaren is particularly proud of its new MP4-22.

“Once we get the MP4-22 on track, the progress we can make from now until the first race will be really big,” Alonso said, “and I have no doubt that we will fight for the championship.”

The season begins with the March 18 Australian Grand Prix.

WORKAHOLIC: Seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher just can’t stay away. After announcing his retirement from Formula One last season, Schumacher is remaining at Ferrari as a consultant. He has unlimited access to Ferrari’s F1 program.

“He’ll come over whenever he wants to, and he will attend some GPs. He knows everything about racing and F-1. He will help us with our decisions,” Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo told Italy’s Gazzetta dello Sport.

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US restrictions on online gambling may be challenged by the European Union, the bloc's top financial regulator said today.

The legality of Internet gambling in the United States was ambiguous for many years, but it was effectively banned last October when President Bush signed legislation outlawing financial transactions for gaming.

Several British online gambling firms were forced out of the US market as a result.

"In my view it is probably a restrictive practice, and we might take it up in another fora," EU Internal Market Commissioner Charlie McCreevy told the European Parliament.

The United States was protecting its own gambling industry by stopping foreign companies from entering the online betting sector, Mr McCreevy said.

However, Mr McCreevy said: "It's not my intention to bring forward a harmonised piece of legislation on gambling in the European Union."

Mr McCreevy had declared that the US rules were a "prima facie" case of protectionism and that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) was a possible venue for tackling them. However, due to the WTO's protracted negotiations to secure a new world trade agreement, he would not rush to file a complaint.

"It's not something of major momentum," Mr McCreevy said. There have been no face-to-face talks about the issue with Peter Mandelson, the EU trade commissioner, he added.

US pressure on the industry continues. The US Justice Department recently demanded information from some of the world's biggest investment banks as part of the investigation into online gambling companies such as Britain's Partygaming.

Source: Ireland.com

Posted by Mike Godsey at 07:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Underdog Bears

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

The line has dipped since Sunday night on WagerWeb.com, which means the Super Bowl public, at least early on, is leaning towards the Bears. Sure, they don't have the sentimental angle. That belongs to Tony Dungy. Sure, the Bears don't have the explosive offense. That belongs to Peyton Manning.

Maybe it's the fact that the Bears were the No. 1 seed in the NFC, with the most dominant defense for two-thirds of the season. Who knows, perhaps it's just the 6.5 points they're getting. Either way, there are quite a few out there who believe in the Bears.

Now that doesn't mean Chicago coach Lovie Smith isn't going to play up the "nobody believes in us" theory. Even if many do believe in them, Smith doesn't want to hear it. Not yet.

"As far as us being underdogs, if you look at what all the Colts bring to the table I could see why they would make us underdogs," Smith said. "But we've been in that role before, and our guys like the underdog role. I wouldn't bet against the Bears if I were a betting man."

Which, of course, he's not. But it's worth remembering when it comes time to head to the betting window. Keep in mind, the Bears used that same motivational ploy last week, when, despite Chicago being a small favorite, most of the country loved the Saints in the NFC title game.

Nevermind that New Orleans was playing the in cold, had never won two straight playoff games and was appearing in its first championship contest. But we digress. Either way, the Bears played up that angle and that worked OK, didn't it?

So, now it's onto Miami, where again the Bears will be the second story. And perhaps, that's warranted. After all, Smith is not Dungy. Rex Grossman is not Manning. Rashied Davis is not Marvin Harrison. Heck, Robbie Gould isn't Adam Vinatieri.

"It's a special time," Smith said, "and I think just having the two weeks helps you enjoy it more."

Smith is -- and will continue -- to say the right things, the politically correct things. But clearly, the Bears will throw out the "disrespect" card behind closed doors. And we'll see just how far that card will take them next Sunday.

CROWDED BACKFIELD: Jacksonville running back Greg Jones, who missed the entire season with a torn ACL, is back at work and expects to be full-go at training camp in August. Jones is a bruiser from Florida State, a definite jewel on the goal line and quite capable of breaking a few as well.

Problem is, Maurice Jones-Drew had quite the rookie season, and don't forget the franchise's all-time leading rusher, Fred Taylor. But Greg Jones, when healthy, is a quality back. So much so, that Coach Jack Del Rio and Co. may have to consider dealing Taylor, the oldest and most worn down of the group. He's also the one most likely to attract outside interest.

Clearly, it's something to monitor during the offseason.

LATE-NIGHT PLEA: Just in case you didn't think Eagles backup quarterback Jeff Garcia wasn't going to shop his services around during the free-agency period, he made sure of everyone knew his plans when he announced them on The Late Show with Jay Leno.

"I'll definitely be testing the waters," he said. "I've got to see what's out there."

He's sure to find something.

Posted by Mike Godsey at 01:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Chase Changes

By Brit Fryer
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer


CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It’s hard for Kasey Kahne to argue with NASCAR’s changes to the points system and Chase for the Nextel Cup.

Kahne won a series-high five races for Evernham Motorsports before the 2006 Chase ever began, but he entered the postseason in 10th. Had Monday’s announcement been in place five months ago, Kahne’s No. 9 Dodge would have started the Chase first with 10 points to spare.

“Winning is what the sport is all about,” NASCAR CEO Brian France said on the annual media tour. “Nobody likes to see drivers content to finish just in the top 10. We want our sport — especially the Chase — to be more about
winning.”

Starting with the Feb. 18 Daytona 500, race winners throughout the 36-race season will receive 185 points — a five-point increase. Counting the five-point bonuses available for leading at least one lap and leading the most laps, a winner now can earn a maximum of 195 points, creating a potential maximum of 25 points between the first- and second-place finishers.

Then comes the Chase, which now will consist of the top 12 drivers rather than 10. After race No. 26, all 12 drivers will have their point totals reset to 5,000, and they’ll then be seeded based on the number of victories amassed that season, each of which carries a 10-point bonus.

Bobby Labonte, the series champion in 2000, is slowly coming around to the whole Chase thing.

“I can honestly say I didn’t like the deal three years ago when they started doing it,” Labonte said, “but I think it’s like anything else. You grow accustomed to it and it’s OK now. If you win more during the season that puts you in different places for the final 10. I think it’s all good.”
OUCH: Kevin Harvick (+1,200 to win the Nextel Cup on WagerWeb.com) let Teresa Earnhardt have it Tuesday.

Earnhardt operates Dale Earnhardt Inc., the Nextel Cup team founded by her late husband Dale Earnhardt, who died in the 2001 Daytona 500. As usual, Harvick pulled no punches, calling Teresa Earnhardt an absentee owner.

“It’s hard when you have what I call a deadbeat owner that doesn’t come to the race track,” Harvick said during a stop at Richard Childress Racing.

“You always see Richard Childress. You always see Chip Ganassi. All these owners, they all come to the race track. It’s not just a money pit that somebody says, ‘Well, I can make money off of Dale Jr. I can make money off of Dale Earnhardt.’ ”

Dale Earnhardt Jr., Teresa’s stepson, drives for DEI and is involved in a tense contract negotiation.
MORE CHANGES: The Nextel All-Star Challenge underwent a bit of a facelift. Four 20-lap segments, with no inverted restarts and various requirements scattered about, will decide this May’s $1 million race at Lowe’s Motor
Speedway. And two drivers — not one — will transfer from the Nextel Open.
NUTS AND BOLTS: Petty Enterprises, based in the Level Cross, N.C., since 1949, will move to Salisbury in the next year or so. … Toyota plans to purchase 89 acres in North Carolina’s Rowan County for a NASCAR support facility. … After an interview during preseason testing, Jeff Gordon found himself locked inside the Daytona garage area and climbed a fence to get out.

Posted by Mike Godsey at 01:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

P.J. Steps Up

By Marty Gitlin
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

A trade for Pau Gasol hasn’t developed beyond the discussion stage, but apparently Chicago power forward P.J. Brown has been inspired.

After all, he would be the odd man out of the starting lineup if the Bulls did acquire Gasol.

Brown put in his two cents and then some Thursday night against the torrid Dallas Mavericks. He scored six points down the stretch and held Most Valuable Player candidate Dirk Nowitzki to just 7 of 22 shooting in a 96-85 victory in Chicago.

The Mavericks had entered on an eight-game winning streak and having won 21 of their last 22.

“Things were rolling and the ball felt good,” Brown told the Associated Press. “Sometimes you have to want to take the shot. I got in a nice rhythm and after that I just kept shooting. It was just one of those nights.

“I didn’t think we needed much from me on the offensive end. Most important was for me to stay with Dirk and not let him have a monster night.”

The Bulls, who are second in the NBA at defensive field goal percentage, also held Josh Howard in check. Nowitzki’s frontcourt mate connected on just 4 of 20 shots. The Mavericks hit a season-worst 31.2 percent from the field.

Dallas (35-9) no longer boasts the best record in the league. That distinction belongs to Phoenix (34-8), which will shoot for its 16th consecutive win Friday night at battered Milwaukee. WagerWeb.com lists the Suns as rare (11 points) double-figure road favorites.

UNFAIR FOR TELFAIR? Boston guard and former highly coveted high school standout Sebastian Telfair has taken another step back in his NBA career.

Telfair lost his starting job after Christmas and is now a third-string point guard with one of the worst teams in the league. He has averaged four minutes of playing time in the last three games and has dropped behind emerging Delonte West and Rajon Rondo in the rotation.

West is averaging 21.7 points and 6.3 assists in those three games while Rondo is contributing 6.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists off the bench.

The Telfair saga continues Friday night in Toronto, where the Celtics are 9-point underdogs, according to WagerWeb.com.

DRIBBLES: Is it more frustrating to be blown out or to lose at the buzzer? The New Jersey Nets are finding out these days. They suffered their third consecutive one-point defeat, 102-101, at the Los Angeles Clippers on a 3-point bomb by Cuttino Mobley with 0.6 seconds remaining. The Nets have fallen behind first-place Toronto in the Atlantic Division. … The top seven teams in the Eastern Conference sit within three games of each other. Current top seed Detroit hosts second-seeded Washington Friday night. WagerWeb.com lists the Pistons as 5.5-point favorites.

Posted by Mike Godsey at 01:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

NHL Western Conference Report

By Dan The Man Leach
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

It has been a truly exciting season in the NHL so far, and as we enter the second half of the season, let's take a look top 5 teams in the Western Conference. These are the teams I feel will be there in the end fighting for Lord Stanley’s Cup, as well as couple of sleepers that could make a lot of noise come playoff time.

1. Nashville (71 points, 1st place Central Division): Could this be the Predators' year? Many people thinks so as the former late-1990s expansion team is fast becoming a power in the Western Conference. The leadership of Paul Kariya has been key as he has 53 points, most on the team heading into the second half. WagerWeb.com lists the Preds as +800 to win the Stanley Cup.

2. Anaheim Ducks (68 points, 1st place, Pacific Division): With some of the best goaltending in the league, the Ducks are a team that can shut an opponent down and in a hurry. The play of the forwards will be a key come playoff time. The Ducks know they can stay in games with their defense and goaltending, and that is truly dangerous in today’s NHL. WagerWeb.com lists the Ducks as the favorites to win the Cup at +350.

3. Calgary Flames (Co-1st place, 56 points, Northwest Division): The Stanley Cup finalists from a few years ago are catching fire, no pun intended, and have been playing great defense heading into the break. The second half will be key for the Flames to dominate more as a balanced team instead of one-dimensional at times. WagerWeb.com lists the Flames as +1500 to win the Cup.

4. Detroit Red Wings (65 points, 2nd place, Central Division): The Wings no longer have Steve Yzerman, but they have Nick Lidstrom and some of the best young talent in the league in Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Dominik Hasek is capable of winning a Cup by standing on his head, but has been inconsistent at times this year and will need to go into the second half confident and, most important, healthy. WagerWeb.com lists the Wings as +900 to win the Cup.

5. San Jose Sharks (64 points, 2nd place, Pacific Division): The Sharks have been too up and down for their liking, but when they are up they are a team that can control the blue line and shut the other team down with great defense. WagerWeb.com lists the Sharks as +800 to win the Cup.

SLEEPERS

Dallas Stars: This team has the depth and leadership to make a run.

Vancouver Canucks: One of the NHL’s best offensive teams can be very dangerous when it gets hot, plus the Canucks have Roberto Luongo in net.

Posted by Mike Godsey at 01:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Hey, Brother

By Tim Sullivan
WagerWeb.com contributing writer

Eli Manning is a world away from where his brother, Peyton, is. Sure, they both made the playoffs, but Peyton won three games and advanced to Super Bowl XLI. Eli? He was gone, it seemed, before the tournament even started.

But in New York, a story's a story. And this week -- with not much going on except the dysfunctional Knicks losing games left and right in the Big Apple -- Eli's thoughts on his brother's run became one of those stories.

So the Giants cooperated, and he graciously spoke with the media.

"I was excited for Peyton. I know everything he’s been through, being another player who is going through the same things and has been to the playoffs and been disappointed," Eli said. "I’ve only been twice, and he’s been a number of times and has been through it. It’s tough. The road they took to get to the Super Bowl, having to beat Kansas City, Baltimore, who was playing about as good as anybody, and New England, who is as good in the playoffs as anybody. To win those three games and to get to this position, it’s a tough deal, and I’m just excited for him. I know how hard he’s worked."

Eli works just as hard, or so we think. It would help, of course, if his receivers -- Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress -- went through the same offseason program with him. Perhaps a better chemistry would evolve. But those two combustible parts choose to train at the University of Miami, while Manning, for the most part, works with backups in New Jersey.

"I still have a lot of time to try to get my opportunity to get down there," Eli said of making the big game. "I want to be on the other side and not have to be down in Miami going to events and things like that. I want to be in the hotel studying film and getting ready to play for a championship."

He may get his chance. It may not be with Tom Coughlin at the helm, but he may get there nonetheless. But he won't do it alone. The Giants need a clear-cut workhorse running back to replace Tiki Barber. They have Brandon Jacobs, but he's more unproven than Eli is. They need a more reliable secondary. And they need a healthy group of linebackers.

Right now, they have none of that.

"That’s what you play for," Eli said. "That’s the only thing that’s on players’ minds as they play through the season, is to try to win games, to try to get into the playoffs and then, from there, you try to get to the Super Bowl and win a championship."

Peyton has his opportunity against the Bears and he's a 6.5-point favorite on WagerWeb.com to cash it in.

Eli, well, he has to wait.

MIKE'S MESSY MIX IN JACKSONVILLE: Mike Shula didn't get the Dolphins' head coaching job, but he made it to the NFL nonetheless. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio brought Shula in to be the quarterbacks coach this week, and immediately, he has his work cut out for him.

Shula, of course, is no stranger to messy situations considering the probation-laden program he assumed at Alabama. But what he'll do with David Garrard, who started 10 games last season, and Byron Leftwich, who started six? Who knows.

EXTRA POINTS: Safety Rodney Harrison may not fit in the Patriots' plans next season. He is oft-injured, he is 34, and he stands to make $2.7 million next season. That's a recipe for a release when Bill Belichick is your head coach. ... Despite rumors to the contrary, disgruntled Raiders wide receiver Jerry Porter appears to be in the mix for next season as Coach Lane Kiffin reworks the offense. Porter demanded a trade during the brief Art Shell Era, Part 2.

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FA Cup Fourth Round

By Tim Robertson
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

Birmingham City will take aim at another Premiership scalp in this weekend’s FA Cup fourth round.

Having humiliated Newcastle in a 5-1 win at St James’ Park, the Blues host Reading on Saturday, and despite what the league table says Royals manager Steve Coppell believes his team should not travel to the midlands with the idea that they are facing a Championship side.

Birmingham, hit hard by injury, went down last season but look like coming straight back up as they sit second in the Championship with two games in hand on leaders Derby.

"If you look at the season they had last year injuries determined their season,” Coppell said. “If they had had all their personnel available they would still be a Premiership club.

"I would see them as a Premiership club even though, at the moment, they are outside it. And given their position in the league, they are rehearsing for the Premiership now.

"Just look at the money they have spent since last summer. They have spent significant amounts of money mainly on strikers and they have serious intent. They want to play in the top flight and they have invested to do that."

Indeed, Steve Bruce demonstrated his determination to push for the Premiership on Friday when he insisted that West Ham target Matthew Upson is not for sale.

Bruce has already rejected bids of £4 million and £6 million for the want-away defender, and told West Ham not to bother bidding again.

“He is not going, full stop,” Bruce said. “Whether it is £8million, £9million, £10million, it wouldn't matter.”

With the new TV deals kicking in next season, Bruce knows that a return to the Premiership would be worth far more to Birmingham than any fee they could get for Upson now.

Birmingham won this fixture in the Cup after a replay last season, but are well-fancied to do the job in one go this time at home.

Bruce will field the same team that embarrassed Newcastle, while Reading are without defender Ibrahima Sonko and striker Kevin Doyle.

WagerWeb cannot split them, offering both at +150, but it is tempting to back Birmingham to do the job at St Andrews.

Another Premiership club that has Championship opposition is Blackburn, who must travel south to face Luton Town, managed by former player Mike Newell.

Newell was a member for the Rovers team that won the Premiership title in 1995, but he does not intend to do his old employers any favours on Saturday afternoon.

“We had a great few years there and we had great spirit," Newell said of his time in Lancashire. "A lot of the players were at the top of their game and a lot of them went on to be even better than they were at Blackburn.

"That time is something to look back on when you finish playing, which I have done, but it won't give us any advantage at all on Saturday."
Luton are at the wrong end of the Championship, and unlike Birmingham, do not have the sort of winning form that might worry Blackburn.

But Newell’s teams are nothing if not battle-hardened, and with Blackburn now minus skipper Robbie Savage through injury, the +300 odds being offered in favour of Luton do seem a little generous.

Middlesbrough face a potential banana skin as they head to high-flying League One side Bristol City.

Gareth Southgate’s team are nothing if not unpredictable. Quite where last week’s 5-1 win over Bolton came from, no one quite knows, nor would anyone have been too surprised if that scoreline had been reversed.

Whichever version of Boro turns up at Ashton Gate on Saturday afternoon will face a man in form as City striker Enoch Showumni has scored in each of his last five games.

The 24-year-old came into the game late but is blossoming after three years as a professional.

"He is not the finished article yet but he has been performing very well recently," manager Gary Johnson said. "He is on a good run of form and hopefully that will continue against Middlesbrough.”

City will have a sell-out crowd cheering them on in hope of a win that would be surely the biggest upset of the fourth round if they pull it off, but they must overcome a confident Boro team and odds of -110 in favour of the Premiership club.

In London, Tottenham will look to rebound from the disappointment of Wednesday’s 2-2 Carling Cup draw with Arsenal when they face Southend at White Hart Lane.

Spurs had led 2-0 against what was effectively an Arsenal youth team, but they were lucky to hold on for a draw by the end.

Southend were one of their victims early in the Carling Cup, and the Shrimpers will return to London intent on revenge having only lost that last game to a late and distinctly offside Jermaine Defoe goal in extra time.

Southend are battling relegation from the Championship, but far from seeing this game as a distraction, manager Steve Tilson is happy to have a game where the pressure is all on the o