A nice 3-0 sweep with two underdogs is the beginning of promised delivered. We have already nailed three straight NBA picks, all Wise Guys. Now with so much data in, we know the best is yet to come in MLB. Example:
SAN DIEGO (STULTS -121) Arizona (Cahill)
San Diego has won 5-of-7. Trevor Cahill has a 7.94 ERA in his last four starts. His last three it is 8.64 with a 1.860 WHIP. In 13 starts Eric Stults has 1.151 WHIP. Last three starts his ERA and WHIP are 1.64 and 0.727. In six starts to the Diamondbacks he has an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.146.
Arizona is coming off quite the emotional series with LA, so this is a great spot for a letdown. San Diego (32-34) is 27-19 since its 5-15 start. They are 18-7 at home.
KANSAS CITY (MENDOZA +151) Tampa (Moore)
Matt Moore has hit the wall. After starting out 10-1 in his starts, the Rays have dropped his last two. He has been plastered for 14 runs, all but one earned, in just 13 IP in that period. His WHIP is an absurd 3.571 in those two starts. Moore went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA in his first 11 starts. He may be the leading regression to the mean pitcher in MLB right now.
Luis Mendoza is one of those pitchers who is better on the road with 3.03 ERA and 1.213 WHIP. Last four starts his ERA is 2.04, giving up no unearned runs. For the last several years, we have always specified pitchers unless otherwise noted, but this game definitely screams of an overvalued hurler.
TORONTO (BUERHLE +121) Texas (Grimm)
This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
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