Pro Gambler’s Breakdown of Chiefs vs. Ravens

Week 3 of NFL betting concludes with arguably the biggest game of the season as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens. The possible AFC Championship Game preview sees both teams 2-0 SU. Each team has split their totals going over and under once. KC is 1-1 to the number, Baltimore 2-0. Baltimore is topping the oddsmakers by a league leading 17.2 points per game. Only Green Bay is beating the bookies by an average of more than double-digits, though of course every other teams, sans tonight’s foes, have played three games.

Teams with a 15 or better margin of cover average for the year are 100-124-8, including 88-116-7 if not a home underdog. This of course would say to fade Baltimore and bet on KC.

Odds: Baltimore is either -3 with juice in the -119 or -120 range or -3.5 with juice at even money at books like WagerWeb. The total is as low as 54.5, but as high as 55.5. The game opened at -1.5 and 52. Some consider opening line when all bookies have one, AKA “widely available” opening line. Many love world opener for power lines and other purposes.

Public betting percentages: 58 percent of bets and 64% of money is on Kansas City. On one hand, the public loves favorites, but they do tend to jump on high-quality underdogs, so the fact they love the defending Super Bowl champs as puppies is not a surprise.

Power ratings: The Ravens should be -3.5 with a total of 50. They are projected to win 27-24.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Baltimore winning 29-24 with the Ravens covering -3 at 52 percent of the time and the game going under 55 percent. Even with the pushes, the model represents only a mild lean to the Ravens, but with the added juice at -3, it is essentially a wash. At +3.5, the other elite model has KC covering 55.1-44.9, but only 46.6-44.9 at +3, with about nine percent pushing. At 54.5, 54.9 percent of simulations go over.

Against the spread trends: Kansas City 7-0 after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 4-0-1 MNF, 9-1 away dog. Baltimore is 9-1 to AFC.

Over-under trends: Kansas City over 15-5 underdogs, but under 35-16 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

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NFL Week 4 Opening Lines Released; Sharps Use as Part of Power Ratings

Week 4 NFL odds. Some consider opening line when all bookies have one, AKA “widely available” opening line. Many love world opener for power lines and other purposes. A common belief among sharps is that oddsmakers adjust to the fact the public always overreacts to previous week’s results. At Joe Duffy’s Picks, these are power ratings, adjusted for injuries. Bet these at MyBookie, latest odds.

Thurs SP/RL
8:25 PM
101 Broncos -2 (-112)
102 Jets +2 (-108)
Sun SP/RL
1:05 PM
251 Colts -2 (-110)
252 Bears +2 (-111)
1:05 PM
253 Saints -5½ (-117)
254 Lions +5½ (-103)
1:05 PM
255 Cardinals -5 (-113)
256 Panthers +5 (-107)
1:05 PM
257 Jaguars +3 (-123)
258 Bengals -3 (+104)
1:05 PM
259 Browns +5½ (-109)
260 Cowboys -5½ (-111)
1:05 PM
261 Vikings +3 (+115)
262 Texans -3 (-137)
1:05 PM
263 Seahawks -7 (+101)
264 Dolphins +7 (-121)
1:05 PM
265 Chargers +5 (-106)
266 Buccaneers -5 (-114)
1:05 PM
267 Steelers +2 (-114)
268 Titans -2 (-106)
1:05 PM
269 Ravens -13 (-102)
270 WA Football Team +13 (-119)
4:10 PM
271 Giants +10 (-121)
272 Rams -10 (+101)
4:30 PM
273 Patriots +7 (-111)
274 Chiefs -7 (-109)
4:30 PM
275 Bills -2 (-111)
276 Raiders +2 (-108)
8:25 PM
277 Eagles
278 49ers
Mon SP/RL
8:20 PM
279 Falcons +6 (-111)
280 Packers -6 (-109)

 

Free Winning Picks Cowboys-Seahawks Betting Picks Preview

The Seattle Seahawks take on the Dallas Cowboys in Seattle. Dallas is 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ats, splitting their two totals. Seattle is 2-0 SU and ATS, going over both games. Seattle is third in the NFL in over margin, going over by an average of 16.8 points per game.

Dallas is fresh off a stunning come from behind win against Atlanta. Dogs of 4.5 or more off a comeback win in which they trailed by at least 17 points are go-against of 18-8 including 12-4 since 2006. This says to fade Dallas and go with Seattle. However, anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 185-129-8. One may point out that Dallas has played just two games. Overreaction is enormous early in year, so this angle is 73-43 for 62.9 percent in first four weeks or more accurately, weeks 3 and 4.

When a team, in this case Seattle, is coming off consecutive games in which at least 60 points were scored, and the current total is 57 or higher, it goes over 15-4-1 all-time. It applies here.

Odds: Seattle is -5 and a total of 57. It opened Seattle -3, -116 and 56.

Public betting percentages: Though 55 percent of bets on Seattle, 84 percent of money on Dallas. 79 percent of bets and 94 percent of money on over.

Power ratings: The best power ratings anywhere, say that Seattle should be laying -2.5 with a total of 52 and project Seattle to win 27-24,

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Dallas covering about 52 percent of the time, going under 67 percent with 30-26 final in favor of the Hawks. Another has Dallas covering 56.6 percent of the time at 4.5. The same percentage applies at 5 except the probability of a push goes up to two percent. It has the game under 53.6 percent of the time. Their power line is Seattle -3 and 55.

Against the spread trends: Dallas 10-3 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Seattle 3-7 at home.

Over-under trends: Dallas over 13-3 off spread loss. Seattle over 12-5 off SU win.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. 10 NFL Sunday, season-high four Wise Guys, plus Monday Night Football winner. All this and more at OffshoreInsiders.com with new much more mobile friendly website.

Our official free pick is DALLAS +5 at NFL live lines.

Sportsbook Releases Odds on First Coaches Fired in Each Power Conference

As you enjoy the new website at OffshoreInsiders.com and its mobile friendliness, we present prop odds. With three of the Power 5 conferences in action this weekend, oddsmakers took a look around the college football landscape and wondered which coaches might be on the hot seat.

Below you will find odds for the first head coach fired in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. Odds do not take into account a coach resigning or retiring.

Odds from SportsBetting are subject to change and your readers can view real-time numbers via the link below.

Head Coach odds:

First ACC head coach fired

Dino Babers  3-2

Dave Doeren  2-1

Pat Narduzzi  6-1

Justin Fuente  6-1

Manny Diaz  10-1

Mike Norvell  10-1

David Cutcliffe  12-1

Mack Brown  14-1

Geoff Collins  16-1

Jeff Hafley  20-1

Scott Satterfield  20-1

Dave Clawson  20-1

Bronco Mendenhall  25-1

Brian Kelly  33-1

Dabo Swinney  100-1

First Big 12 head coach fired

Tom Herman  3-2

Matt Wells  3-2

Neal Brown  3-1

Les Miles  6-1

Chris Klieman  8-1

Gary Patterson  10-1

Mike Gundy  10-1

Matt Campbell  14-1

Dave Aranda  20-1

Lincoln Riley  28-1

First Big Ten head coach fired

Lovie Smith  2-1

Scott Frost  3-2

Jim Harbaugh  5-1

Pat Fitzgerald  5-1

Tom Allen  8-1

Jeff Brohm  9-1

Kirk Ferentz  12-1

Mike Locksley  14-1

Paul Chryst  20-1

PJ Fleck +2500

Mel Tucker  33-1

Greg Schiano  50-1

James Franklin  50-1

Ryan Day  100-1

First SEC head coach fired

Will Muschamp  2-1

Derek Mason  2-1

Jeremy Pruitt  3-1

Gus Malzahn  5-1

Sam Pittman  8-1

Lane Kiffin  10-1

Mike Leach  10-1

Jimbo Fisher  14-1

Eli Drinkwitz  20-1

Mark Stoops  20-1

Kirby Smart  33-1

Dan Mullen  33-1

Ed Orgeron  50-1

Nick Saban  100-1

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TNF Betting Preview Jaguars vs. Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins take on the Jacksonville Jaguars as week 3 NFL betting begins. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, going over 1-1. The Jags are 1-1 SU, covering both games and both went over the total. The Jags games have gone over by an average of 10.9 points per game.

Odds: Jacksonville is -3 but very low juice, in fact +105 at some books, The total is 48 at MyBookie. Last week, it opened at -1.5 and 44.

Public betting percentages: The Jags have 69 percent of bets and a stunning 90 percent of cash on them. The over is favored by 69 and 90 percent respectively.

Power ratings: The top power ratings have Jags -4.5 and 48.5 with Jacksonville projected to win 27-22.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Miami covering the field goal 49 percent of the time, a mild plurality because of the expected pushes on the key number. 55 percent of their simulations go over and their predicted final score is Jacksonville coming out on top 27-25. The other widely respected model has Miami covering 56.4 percent to 35.6 for Jacksonville, with a ton of pushes. They have 56.6 percent of simulations going under 48, with 40.9 exceeding the total. They have Jacksonville winning by two with 45 points scored.

Against the spread trends: Miami 7-2 off loss, 16-37 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Jacksonville is 8-2 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Over-under trends: Miami has gone under 8-2 on Thursdays but over 6 straight off loss. Jacksonville has gone under 9-4 home.

Injuries: Jaguars WR DJ Clark, who has seven catches in two games for 109 yards and a touchdown in questionable. Weather is not expected to be a big factor, though at 87 degrees, depth could be a factor. Winds will be at 12 mph.

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College Football Free Pick Week 3 Army-Cincinnati

Joe Duffy already has a big portfolio up for the weekend. Thursday Night College Football Total of the Year, NFL Thursday, four Saturday football and a lot more coming at OffshoreInsiders.com

ARMY +14 Cincinnati

Angle that has to do with big underdogs in games not expected to be high scoring is 276-178-20. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Army covering 67 percent of the time, losing by just six points. Another simulator has Army covering 58.3-40 with rest falling on 14, projected as 11 points better. Another has power line at Cincinnati -6.5.

Army with good speed at RB with Buchanan, Robinson, McCoy. This is Army’s toughest opponent of season, so they can put all their focus on this game. Dogs of 10.5 or more off consecutive 20 point or more wins are 85-61-1 if not playing at home. Favors Army.

I bet at NFL live lines, latest odds

Official Monday Night Football Betting Preview of Saints vs. Raiders

The New Orleans Saints take on the Las Vegas Raiders to finish off week 2 of NFL live lines. Las Vegas opens their billion-dollar stadium. Both teams are 1-0 SU and ATS, going over their only game. Home underdogs of two or more are 41-17-3 since 1991, including 19-9 in week 2. That would favor the Raiders.

Odds: Saints are -5.5 on the road with a total of 48.5 or 49. It opened -4.5 and 50.5.

Public betting percentages: The public as usual loves the road favorite, but at a reasonable rate with 64 percent of bets and 53 percent of money on the Saints. The over is being bet at 62 and 54 percent respectively.

Power ratings: The power line is New Orleans -4.5 and 51.5 with a projected Saints win of 27-23.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found New Orleans covering 52 percent at -5.5 with 52 percent going over 48.5. The other has Raiders overing 56.3 percent at +5.5 and 61.4 percent going over 48.5.

Against the spread trends: New Orleans 20-6 versus an opponent winning home record, but 1-7 overall in week 2. Vegas is 6-2 home underdogs,

Over-under trends: New Orleans over 20-8 after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vegas under 4-0 MNF.

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Official Betting Preview Seahawks-Patriots, Live Stream, Odds

It is Sunday Night Football, New England vs. Seattle on NBC and streamed live. Each team is off double-digit wins and covers. New England went under, Seattle over in their initial contests.

Odds: Seattle is mostly a four-point favorite on live NFL lines but there are some 3.5s, though must with added juice. That total is predominately 45, though 44.5 has been seen at some books. The game opened Seattle -3, but with a whopping -137 juice, so in reality the line has not moved much as -4 was the price with normal juice. The total is up though from its 44 debut.

Public betting percentages: 68 percent of bets and money are on Seattle, but a massive discrepancy in the total with 70 percent of tickets on over, but 59 percent of money on under. Sharps say this implies the smart money is on the under.

Power ratings: New England winning 23-22 with power line of Pats -.5 and 44.5.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Seattle covering 51 percent of the time with the total going over 50 percent at 45, so with pushes, also a slim edge to the over with a projected final of Seattle 25-22. Another has New England covering at a 52.6-44.5 rate, with some pushes at 4. They have 60.1 percent of simulations exceeding 44.5. At 45, it’s 57.2-39.9 on the over, the rest pushes.

Against the spread trends: New England is 20-8 after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game but 0-4-1 versus an opponent with a winning record. Seattle 3-7 off cover and 2-6 home favorites.

Over-under trends: Seattle over 9-3 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Series has gone over five straight.

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Week 3 NFL Lines Posted at Sportsbooks

Week 3 NFL lines are up at top sportsbooks such as MyBookie and Bovada. Many sharp bettors believe these are effective power ratings because odds will overreact to previous week’s results. These lines came out before kickoff of the previous week games. Obviously best football handicappers  must account for for injuries.

  Thurs SP/RL
 
8:25 PM
301 Dolphins +1½ (-110)
302 Jaguars -1½ (-110)
  Sunday SP/RL
 
1:05 PM
461 Raiders +6½ (-110)
462 Patriots -6½ (-110)
1:05 PM
463 Rams +3 (-121)
464 Bills -3 (EV)
1:05 PM
465 Texans +5½ (-121)
466 Steelers -5½ (EV)
1:05 PM
467 49ers -6½ (-105)
468 Giants +6½ (-115)
1:05 PM
469 Titans -1 (-110)
470 Vikings +1 (-110)
1:05 PM
471 WA Football Team +5½ (+105)
472 Browns -5½ (-125)
1:05 PM
473 Bengals +6 (-108)
474 Eagles -6 (-112)
1:05 PM
475 Bears +3 (-115)
476 Falcons -3 (-105)
4:10 PM
477 Jets +6½ (EV)
478 Colts -6½ (-120)
4:10 PM
479 Panthers +6 (-116)
480 Chargers -6 (-104)
4:30 PM
481 Lions +3½ (-110)
482 Cardinals -3½ (-110)
4:30 PM
483 Buccaneers -3½ (-110)
484 Broncos +3½ (-110)
4:30 PM
485 Cowboys +3½ (-109)
486 Seahawks -3½ (-111)
8:25 PM
487 Packers +4 (-110)
488 Saints -4 (-110)
  Monday SP/RL
 
8:20 PM
489 Chiefs +2 (-109)
490 Ravens -2 (-111)

 

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