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June 3, 2020

Sports Betting on Jon Jones Next Fight, Conor McGregor Next Foe

Filed under: Sports Betting News — Joe Duffy @ 1:48 PM

Odds are courtesy SportsBetting

Will Jon Jones fight in UFC in 2020?
Yes +140
No -180

Jon Jones next fight
MMA -400
Boxing +250

Which will happen first for Jon Jones?
MMA or boxing match -200
Arrest +150

Additionally, there are odds available for Conor McGregor’s next opponent:

Kamaru Usman +250
Jorge Masvidal +300
Anderson Silva +400
Tony Ferguson +600
Khabib Nurmagomedov +600
Nate Diaz +700
Justin Gaethje +700
Floyd Mayweather +2000

 

June 1, 2020

Sportsbooks: MLB Likely to Be Played; Trump’s Chances of Winning White House on Rise

Will there be an MLB season? SportsBetting says yes. Bettors have odds of yes -300 and no at +200. The line opened at -500 and was wisely bet down.

Despite bipartisan criticism of President Trump’s handling of the nationwide protests and riots, he is still likely to take the White House according to Bovada.

Donald Trump and the Republican Party have seized the momentum with five months left to go before the 2020 US Presidential Election. Trump is the –120 favorite at press time to retain the presidency, and his Republicans are now –125 to be the winning party; they were tied with the Democrats in May.

Sports handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com believes the combination of Trump’s handling of the Covid and George Floyd crisis and the Dem’s surprising nomination of Biden, make the Democrats the favorites.

“Had Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren gotten the nomination, Trump wins in a landslide,” but he adds, “Biden is the most centrist Democratic nominee since JFK. He should be -140.”

Bet on politics at Bovada and get a free 50% bonus. This election is still pretty much a toss-up according to those odds; however, the Margin of Victory futures suggest an even deeper lean towards the incumbent. Of all the potential margins on odds board, the Republicans winning by 101-149 electoral votes is the favorite at +600, followed by a 60-99 margin at +750. Tied for third at +800 are the Dems winning by the same two margins. The optics may not look good for Trump and the Republicans, but the current situation is at least somewhat reminiscent of 1968, when protests/riots swept across America.

While that year’s popular vote was very close, Hubert H. Humphrey and the fractured Democratic Party lost by 110 electoral votes to the GOP, with Richard Nixon running a “law and order” platform courting conservatives in the South. Get your politics odds at Bovada today.

 

 

May 28, 2020

Odds on Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson Partners for The Match III

Filed under: Sports Betting News — Joe Duffy @ 6:34 PM

We wanted to let you know that an online sportsbook we represent is offering odds on which current and former NBA players might be partnered with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson in “The Match III.”

Odds are courtesy of SportsBetting

Who will partner with Tiger Woods?
Michael Jordan -150
Tony Romo +275
Peyton Manning +300
Jerry Rice +850
Charles Barkley +1200
Larry Fitzgerald +2500
Kid Rock +4000
Donald Trump +25000

Who will partner with Phil Mickelson?
Steph Curry -150
Tom Brady +300
Steve Young +400
Aaron Rodgers +500
Drew Brees +700
Aaron Judge +800
Reggie Bush +1200
Barack Obama +8000

The Match III odds
Team Tiger -150
Team Phil +110

The Match III average viewers
Over 5 million
Under 5 million

 

May 26, 2020

German Bundesliga Updated Odds

Filed under: Sports Betting News — Joe Duffy @ 3:59 PM

German Bundesliga odds. Bet at Bovada When American sports return, OffshoreInsiders.com remains the place to go.

  Wednesday SP/RL TOTAL ML
12:30 PM
20249 Hertha BSC +1½ (-103) 3½ (EV) 807
20249 RB Leipzig -1½ (-112) 3½ (-115) -301
20249 Hertha BSC/RB Leipzig Draw 479
2:30 PM
20247 FSV Mainz 05 +½ (-139) 2½ (-116) 227
20247 Union Berlin -½ (+124) 2½ (+101) 127
20247 FSV Mainz 05/Union Berlin Draw 250
2:30 PM
20247 Paderborn +½ (-109) 2½ (-130) 283
20247 FC Augsburg -½ (-106) 2½ (+115) -102
20247 Paderborn/FC Augsburg Draw 279
2:30 PM
20248 FC Koln PK (+102) 3 (-123) 177
20249 Hoffenheim PK (-117) 3 (+108) 151
20249 FC Koln/Hoffenheim Draw 265
2:30 PM
20249 Schalke 04 PK (-106) 2½ (+103) 174
20249 Fortuna Dusseldorf PK (-109) 2½ (-118) 170
20249 Schalke 04/Fortuna Dusseldorf Draw 237
  Friday, 29th May 2020 SP/RL TOTAL ML
2:30 PM
20253 Bayer Leverkusen
20253 SC Freiburg
20253 Bayer Leverkusen/SC Freiburg Draw
  Saturday, 30th May 2020 SP/RL TOTAL ML
9:30 AM
20250 Hoffenheim
20251 FSV Mainz 05
20251 Hoffenheim/FSV Mainz 05 Draw
9:30 AM
20251 FC Augsburg
20251 Hertha BSC
20251 FC Augsburg/Hertha BSC Draw
9:30 AM
20252 Werder Bremen
20252 Schalke 04
20252 Werder Bremen/Schalke 04 Draw
9:30 AM
20254 Eintracht Frankfurt
20254 Wolfsburg
20254 Eintracht Frankfurt/Wolfsburg Draw
12:30 PM
20253 Fortuna Dusseldorf
20253 Bayern Munich
20253 Fortuna Dusseldorf/Bayern Munich Draw
  Sunday, 31st May 2020 SP/RL TOTAL ML
9:30 AM
20252 Union Berlin
20252 Monchengladbach
20252 Union Berlin/Monchengladbach Draw
12:00 PM
20252 Borussia Dortmund
20253 Paderborn
20253 Borussia Dortmund/Paderborn Draw
  Monday, 1st June 2020 SP/RL TOTAL ML
2:30 PM
20251 RB Leipzig
20251 FC Koln
20251 RB Leipzig/FC Koln Draw

 

May 22, 2020

UFC Fight Night, UFC 250 Odds Updated

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — Joe Duffy @ 8:24 AM

UFC Fight Night and UFC 250 odds are set. Bet at MyBookie  Joe Duffy will have outsourced picks at OffshoreInsiders.com  and hopes for baseball season returning in early July.

Saturday, 30th May 2020 ML
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24201 Gilbert Burns 155
24202 Tyron Woodley -175
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24205 Hannah Cifers 330
24206 Mackenzie Dern -410
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24209 Augusto Sakai -120
24210 Blagoy Ivanov EV
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
11:00 PM  .
24213 Klidson Abreu 110
24214 Jamahal Hill -130
Saturday, 6th June 2020 ML
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24101 Felicia Spencer 450
24102 Amanda Nunes -600
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24105 Raphael Assuncao 125
24106 Cody Garbrandt -145
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24109 Devin Clark 185
24110 Alonzo Menifield -225
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24113 Gerald Meerschaert 105
24114 Ian Heinisch -125
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24117 Jussier Formiga 120
24118 Alex Perez -140
UFC 250 (Time and Location TBA)
11:00 PM
24121 Maki Pitolo 155
24122 Charles Byrd -175

 

May 18, 2020

Francis Ngannou vs. Jon Jones and Other UFC Odds Posted

Filed under: Sports Betting News — Joe Duffy @ 2:11 PM

According to the odds, Jon Jones will find himself in unfamiliar territory if he ever faces off with Francis Ngannou. 

SportsBetting made Ngannou a -150 favorite over Jones in a heavyweight bout. Bones is listed as a +130 underdog at SportsBetting  

Ngannou vs. Jones
Francis Ngannou -150
Jon Jones +130

Ngannou is also listed as a favorite, even a smaller favorite, in a hypothetical match against the retired Daniel Cormier. 

Ngannou vs. Cormier
Francis Ngannou -140
Daniel Cormier +120

Additionally, the sportsbook put up a few Conor McGregor related prop bets, including his next opponent and odds for a Floyd Mayweather rematch.

Conor McGregor next opponent
Nate Diaz +250
Khabib Nurmagomedov +300
Justin Gaethje +450
Tony Ferguson +500
Dustin Poirier +650
Jorge Masvidal +600

McGregor vs. Mayweather II (Must be boxing match. Fight must occur before Jan. 1, 2021)
Conor McGregor +800
Floyd Mayweather -2000

Gaethje vs. McGregor
Justin Gaethje +125
Conor McGregor -145

Gaethje vs. Nurmagomedov
Justin Gaethje +200
Khabib Nurmagomedov -235

Finally, these are the location odds for UFC 250.

UFC 250 location
Nevada -125
Florida +150
Arizona +800
Georgia +1200
Fight Island +2000

May 16, 2020

When Will We See Team Sports Again? With Winners and Whiners, We Opine

Filed under: Sports Betting News — Joe Duffy @ 9:32 AM

With Scott Reichel and Scott Steehn of WinnersAndWhiners, Joe Duffy and OffshoreInsiders.com solves all of the world’s problems. When will sports return? Let’s just say there are specific reasons given why none of the three are optimistic.

May 15, 2020

UFC Odds Saturday Night; Joe Duffy With Picks

Filed under: Sports Betting News — Joe Duffy @ 5:22 PM

UFC Saturday night odds. Bet at Bovada

Joe Duffy has three winners led by a large underdog. It’s only $11 at OffshoreInsiders.com

UFC on ESPN+
6:05 PM  
24087 Rodrigo Nascimento 1½ (-130) -110
24088 Don Tale Mayes 1½ (+110) -110
UFC on ESPN+
6:35 PM  
24079 Cortney Casey 2½ (-460) -152
24080 Mara Romero Borella 2½ (+365) 132
UFC on ESPN+
7:05 PM  
24083 Darren Elkins 2½ (-185) -127
24084 Nate Landwehr 2½ (+160) 107
UFC on ESPN+
8:05 PM  
24071 Anthony Hernandez 2½ (-200) -110
24072 Kevin Holland 2½ (+170) -110
UFC on ESPN+
8:35 PM  
24091 Matt Brown 1½ (-135) 132
24092 Miguel Baeza 1½ (+115) -152
UFC on ESPN+
9:10 PM  
24067 Song Yadong 2½ (-135) -185
24068 Marlon Vera 2½ (+115) 160
UFC on ESPN+
9:40 PM  
24063 Eryk Anders 2½ (-200) 127
24064 Krzysztof Jotko 2½ (+170) -147
UFC on ESPN+
10:10 PM  
24059 Edson Barboza 2½ (-175) -135
24060 Dan Ige 2½ (+155) 115
UFC on ESPN+
10:40 PM  
24055 Claudia Gadelha 2½ (-355) -220
24056 Angela Hill 2½ (+295) 180
UFC on ESPN+
11:10 PM  
24051 Alistair Overeem 1½ (-150) 125
24052 Walt Harris 1½ (+130) -145
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
3:00 AM  
24201 Gilbert Burns 135
24202 Tyron Woodley -155
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
3:00 AM  
24205 Hannah Cifers 260
24206 Mackenzie Dern -320
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
3:00 AM  
24209 Augusto Sakai 105
24210 Blagoy Ivanov -125
UFC Fight Night (Time to be announced)
3:00 AM  
24213 Klidson Abreu 155
24214 Jamahal Hill -175

 

May 12, 2020

Delta Points Scored/Allowed a Major Part of Handicapping’s Holy Grail

Breaking news: delta point margins are a handicapper’s lesser-known weapon, particularly when it comes to forecasting totals. And now the self-evident question, what are delta points? It’s the implied number of points a team will score and allow based on the point spread. Using rounded numbers for streamlining, let’s state a team is favorite by 10 points and the posted total is 30. This means the implied projected points scored by the favorite is 20 and implied points allowed would be 10.

If they scored 27 points, they’d have a plus-7 delta points scored. When applied as season-to-date averages, we can measure overachieving and underachieving offenses and defenses and yet again, use the oddsmakers wisdom against them.

Not shockingly—here we go again—teams regress to the mean. Heavily overachieving offenses are usually good wagers for an under, underachieving offenses a good antes for the over.

Of course, this is especially true when corroborated by both units on both teams or at least when equally compelling numbers aren’t conflicting.

Let’s talk college football for instance. Teams that have a delta points scored of seven or better go under 1083-913-48, a nice 54.3 percent. When their opponent also has a DPS of +6, it goes under nearly 60 percent at 192-131-9.

Sure enough, disappointing offenses incline to be good over plays. A team with a delta points scored of -14 or less goes over 161-135-5-5 for 54.4.

Underachieving defenses? Teams that allow an average of at least 9.5 points per game more than the oddsmakers expected go under 544-460-15. Great defenses…of course go over. Defenses allowing at least 12 fewer points per game than expected go over 243-205-8 for 54.2 percent.

This is another hypothesis that crosses sports. It should as it’s based on a primordial, but ingenious truth. Oddsmakers are not wrong often. That’s bad news for the square player. But delta points scored/allowed essentially disarms them. What the oddsmakers tell us can and will be used against them.

Want delta points and every other sharp edge to be on your side every sports season? Joe Duffy’s premium bets have been winning publicly since June 1, 1988 on the scorephones. Get them now at OffshoreInsiders.com, which is also home to vetted sportsbooks.

 

May 9, 2020

How to Exploit Yards Per Point Stat In Mastering Football Betting

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 4:09 PM

Every season all sports are an enriching experience in sports betting. I constantly reflect and critique myself, evaluate what modifications have been implemented by the oddsmakers and how the alterations in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the register of strategy refinements many football seasons ago was the understanding that I stumbled upon a football handicapping Holy Grail about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slide through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s enterprises. I believe that was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by points scored. On defense, its yards allowed divided by points given up. The supposition is it measures efficiency on both sides of the ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not waste yardage or leave points on the field so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful defensive stands. However, conventional thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one would be better off fading the stat. That is, one should bet on the least efficient team. Here is that magic phrase yet again: regression to the mean.

In fact, based on net yards per play (offensive yards per play-offense yards per play allowed) favorites with a net edge of at least two yards per play are a go-against of 248-208-7. We have a subsystem in our database that is even better.

That being said, such teams that are underdogs despite an efficiency edge 43-32-1. Perhaps this 57.3 angle, albeit with a low sample size, suggests a team is what the stats say they are. That is, when the statistically better team is getting points, take the dog.

I’ve typed countless articles and recorded sports betting podcasts on how we measure the accuracy and validity of a team’s performance. In summation, I exploit net yardage record (a team that gets more yards wins) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others rank teams by total yards per game in passing, rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to the cumulative average of their opponents to date. Foxsheets is quite good for that.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com, but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated they are capable of more than their bottom-line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats. The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal of fortune–literally.

Many years ago, I beta tested (tracked but did not bet) the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially, it proved to be a great a great way to buy low and sell high and apply it to handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The sharpest bettor thanks to facts-based proven systems and theories is Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

 

 

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