We’re six days away from the seedings coming out for the NCAA Tournament and to whet your appetite, there are 21 conference tournaments ongoing this week.
With March Madness on the horizon, conference tournaments offer bettors the first real taste of high-stakes postseason college basketball. The odds are out for several mid-major conference tournaments, and we break down the favorites, sleepers, and long shots.
ASUN Conference Tournament
Favorite: Lipscomb (4/7, -175) enters as the clear frontrunner, dominating conference play.
Top Challenger: North Alabama (5/2, +250) has the firepower to challenge if Lipscomb stumbles.
Sleeper Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (10/1) has enough experience to surprise in a short tournament format.
Long Shot: Central Arkansas (250/1) has an uphill battle but would provide an astronomical payout.
Keywords: ASUN, Lipscomb, North Alabama, Florida Gulf Coast, Central Arkansas, college basketball, betting odds
Big South Conference Tournament
Favorite: High Point (2/5, -250) is heavily favored, expected to cruise through the tournament.
Contenders: Radford (7/1) and Winthrop (15/2, +750) could pose threats if they get hot.
Long Shot: South Carolina Upstate (200/1) has been inconsistent but could make noise with a Cinderella run.
Keywords: Big South, High Point, Radford, Winthrop, South Carolina Upstate, college basketball, betting odds
CAA Conference Tournament
Tight Battle: UNC Wilmington (2/1) and Charleston (7/2, +350) lead a competitive field.
Best Value Bet: Towson (15/4, +375) has the defense and experience to make a push.
Long Shots to Watch: Northeastern and Delaware (both 33/1) have underperformed but could make things interesting.
Three-Way Race: Robert Morris (5/2, +250), Milwaukee (11/4, +275), and Cleveland State (13/4, +325) are in a close battle.
Best Underdog: Purdue Fort Wayne (5/1) could be a dark horse.
Ultimate Cinderella: IUPUI (250/1) has struggled all season but could shock the field with a deep run.
Keywords: Horizon League, Robert Morris, Milwaukee, Cleveland State, Purdue Fort Wayne, IUPUI, college basketball, betting odds
OVC Conference Tournament
Top Pick: Southeast Missouri State (8/5, +160) is the team to beat.
Challenger: SIU Edwardsville (2/1) will look to knock off the top seed.
Best Value Bet: Little Rock (16/5, +320) has been playing well down the stretch.
Keywords: OVC, Southeast Missouri State, SIU Edwardsville, Little Rock, college basketball, betting odds
Patriot League Tournament
Favorite: Bucknell (11/10, +110) leads the way.
Biggest Threat: American University (5/2, +250) has the tools to challenge.
Long Shot: Holy Cross (150/1) would provide a massive payout for bettors seeking a miracle.
Keywords: Patriot League, Bucknell, American University, Holy Cross, college basketball, betting odds
Summit League Tournament
Best Bet: South Dakota State (11/5, +220) and North Dakota State (12/5, +240) are in a tight race.
Dark Horse: St. Thomas-Minnesota (11/4, +275) is a team to watch.
Ultimate Underdog: Oral Roberts (200/1) will need a historic run.
Keywords: Summit League, South Dakota State, North Dakota State, St. Thomas-Minnesota, Oral Roberts, college basketball, betting odds
Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Front-Runners: Arkansas State (7/4, +175) and South Alabama (5/2, +250) are the teams to beat.
Sleeper Team: James Madison (3/1) has been strong in conference play.
Heavy Long Shots: Louisiana, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, and UL Monroe (all 250/1) need a miracle.
Keywords: Sun Belt, Arkansas State, South Alabama, James Madison, Louisiana, college basketball, betting odds
West Coast Conference (WCC) Tournament
Top Dog: Gonzaga (2/3, -150) remains the favorite as usual.
Main Challenger: Saint Mary’s (11/10, +110) could give Gonzaga a fight.
Best Long Shot: Santa Clara (14/1) has the potential to upset.
Keywords: WCC, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, college basketball, betting odds
Final Thoughts
Conference tournaments provide excellent betting opportunities, especially for those looking to cash in on long shots or value bets. While favorites like Lipscomb, High Point, and Gonzaga appear strong, history has shown that upsets are a staple of March basketball. Keep an eye on trends, injuries, and team momentum as tournament play unfolds.
Keywords: college basketball, conference tournaments, March Madness, betting odds, sleeper picks, underdogs, favorites
Mr. March, Joe Duffy, will have all the betting picks winners at OffshoreInsiders.com He is the best handicapper in history.
When a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 896-610-31.
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Army fits into a momentum angle that is 137-67-6. Plus, Army has a legit chance at a Cinderella season along with appropriately Navy. Thus, you can see how they can use style points as much as anyone. While NFL and NBA are about regression to the mean, college football is the biggest momentum sports in betting.
Big bets this weekend!
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Oddstrader: San Francisco 27-21 (good edge to Niners)
BetQL: San Francisco 27-23
Massey: San Francisco 26-23
Betting pros: San Francisco -2.8, 47.3 with UNDER covering 56%, Seattle 52%
Action Network: San Francisco -3, 47.5 (lean UNDER)
Systems:
Road teams that had at least one fumble last game versus opponent that had 11 or fewer third down attempts are 567-439-20. (SFN)
Trends:
Seattle 10-1 on a short week and off a game of two or fewer interceptions is 10-1
Free pick from Joe Duffy:
UTEP +19.5 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead last game. Teams that blew at least an 11-point fourth quarter lead is 101-72-3. Sportsline has us covering 58% of simulations, winning 40-17.
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Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet.
Systems:
Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)
Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home team’s home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)
First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)
Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)
Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)
Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)
Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)
Public loves overs, so books need unders says it’s not coincidental
Trends
Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years
Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lights
Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetime
Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogs
Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him
Notes:
Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68
Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson
Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer
Prop bets
Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards
Integrated more into offense and Tampa’s WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passes
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carries
He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries
The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
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Are the Commanders for real? Can anyone beat Minnesota? Will the Jags ever earn a W? The best NFL handicappers know this answer.
A lot of storylines emerged from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and again, there were a lot of upsets.
Below, we take a peek ahead into Week 5.
Every Friday, Betonline releases look-ahead lines for the following week. The look-ahead numbers are taken down on Sunday right before the games start, and then they are re-opened Sunday evening.
If there’s significant movement (1.5 points or more) from the look-ahead spread or total that are released prior to Week 4, that will be notated under the opening line below.
NFL Week 5 spread are subject to change at Betonline from these NFL opening lines.
NFL Week 5 Opening Odds
Thursday, October 3
Bucs @ Falcons (-2.5, 42.5)
Sunday, October 6
Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5, 41.5)
Panthers @ Bears (-4.5, 43.5)
Ravens @ Bengals (+1.5, 48.5)
(Look-ahead total was 47)
Dolphins @ Patriots (PK, 36)
(Look-ahead total was 42.5)
Browns @ Commanders (-3, 44)
Colts @ Jags (-2.5, 45.5)
Bills @ Texans (+2.5, 47)
(Look-ahead spread was Bills -1)
Raiders @ Broncos (-2, 36)
Cardinals @ 49ers (-7, 48.5)
Packers @ Rams (+3, 46.5)
Giants @ Seahawks (-6, 42)
Cowboys @ Steelers (-2, 41)
(Look-ahead spread was a pick ‘em)
Monday, October 7
Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43)
(Look-ahead total was 45.5)
Get the winning bets at OffshoreInsiders.com We uses NFL opening lines, lookahead lines, with other power ratings, computer sims, betting models and more.
Free winning pick from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com
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Bubble burst angle that has to do with fading teams off a heartbreaking loss. We have several versions of it with similar concept, but slightly different metrics, all with uncanny results. This one is 96-29-4. It has to do with teams off their first loss of the season and it being a blowout loss.
Frankly, because it has not been as automatic in recent years, it is not a premium bet at this moment, but our free picks are either premium bets or our top games that we are considering for premium.
Joe Duffy has💥 2 Friday bets, including an insane 62-14-1 super system
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