This is Part-2 where the Center of the Handicapping
Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of
the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 23-Dec. 27.
East Carolina-Boise State
Boise is much
better on both sides of the ball. They get 4.9 more first downs per game on
98.6 total yards per game and .7 more yards per play. East Carolina
holds their own in ball control though as the teams are dead even in rushing
yards per attempt. Boise gets 1.5 more passing yards per attempt but their
passing yards per reception is actually less than many may think, getting a
minimal .5 more than the Pirates.
The Broncos actually have slightly better margins of
advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Boise
boys allow 5.7 fewer first downs per game, 107.7 fewer yards on .8 less yards
per play allowed. The superiority is pretty consistent though as they allow .4
less rushing yards per attempt and 1.1 less passing yards per attempt. However,
ECU allows .2 fewer passing yards per reception. Boise
has a commanding advantage in pass completion percentage allowing 10.2 less.
Before you conclude the stats say Boise
should be an even bigger chalk, note ECU protects the ball much better with a
turnover ratio 10 better than BSU.
Offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched
statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets
27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2
more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per
attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more
passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per
Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but
not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7
fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper
hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3
less passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better
than CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are
slightly better overall offensively, but Arizona
State is better in the air. The Longhorns
amass 52 more yards per game on .8 more yards per play. Texas
has the smash mouth upper hand by a significant 1.5 more yards per rush.
However it’s ASU that accrues .4 more passing yards
per attempt and .7 more passing yards per reception.
Contrary to the stereotype of the Pac-10, the Sun Devils
allow 3.3 fewer first downs per game, 35.9 fewer yards and .2 less yards per
play. Texas though allows 7.8
fewer yards per rush. The Longhorns get the edge in rushing yards per attempt
allowed by .6, but ASU allows 1.0 passing yards per
attempt but Texas .4 less passing
yards per reception allowed.
ASU has significant superiority
on passing percentage allowed by 10.1 and turnover ratio by 10.
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