Tag Archives: sharp bets

College Football Week 1 Saturday Sharp Moves, Linetrackers

August 31, 2019 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Georgia, Ohio State, Missouri, West Virginia, Alabama

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Michigan, Georgia, Iowa, Florida State, SMU; Miss State OVER, UNC UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: NC State UNDER at books such as Bovada

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Penn State opened -36.5 now -44, Air Force -15 to -20, Michigan -29.5 to -35, USC -9.5 to -13.5 at books such as Bet Now

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Tuesday Night College Football, NBA, College Basketball Sharp Bets, Pros-Joes

November 20, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Joe Duffy is 9-3 with Wise Guy plays in all sports. Tuesday college football Wise Guy is up for Tuesday. Night college basketball and NBA. Let’s roll! Get the picks now

Northern Illinois is at Western Michigan. North Illinois ranges from a 6 to 6.5-point favorite, though juice varies. One can bet them at -7 and +105 at some shops. The total is 49.5 almost across the board, though I see a 50 at Bovada. Offshore and Vegas sportsbooks have seen 68 percent of bets and 76 percent of the money on Northern Illinois. We have a very substantial difference on total with 68 percent of bets on over, yet 67 percent of money on under.

Ball State is at Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio ranges from a -17 to -18 point favorite, so shop around at the vetted sportsbooks at OffshoreInsiders.com. The total is a fairly steady 54.5. Bookies are seeing 69 percent of bets and 62 percent of cash on Miami, but that’s somewhat low for a large chalk. A substantial 81 percent of bets and 79 percent of money are on the over. That makes it the second and fifth strongest consensus bets in respective categories.

NBA sharp intel:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: LA Clippers OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Portland OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

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Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Duke, Washington, Arizona OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Temple, Nebraska, Duquesne, Duke, Gonzaga, Arizona OVER, Auburn OVER, Citadel OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Florida Gulf Coast OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Boise State opened pick but now -4, Maryland Eastern Shore -17.5 down to -14.5.

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College Football Weather, Pros vs. Joes and Sharp Intel College Football, NBA, College Basketball (Must See)

November 17, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Here is the sharpest of sharp bets for Saturday, November 17. Where the pros are betting? Joe Duffy is on an 859-695 explosion, a massive Saturday with six Wise Guys including Mountain West Conference Total of the Year plus five Majors. Outworking the competition and the bookies, I have eight basketball winners, two are Wise Guys. Get the picks now

Sunday six NFL winners, plus Wise Guy plays on both side and total Monday so far. Alert: we go to 17-2 with primetime NFL and we have the sides and totals for SNF and MNF!

College football sharp:

High winds

Michigan State-Nebraska 19 mph

Texas Tech-Kansas State 19 mph

Air Force-Wyoming 16 mph

UNLV-Hawaii 18 mph

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: NC State, Boston College, Ohio State, West Virginia OVER, Ole Miss OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: NC State, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Ole Miss OVER, NC State OVER, Ohio State OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: TCU, Wake Forest OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Minnesota opened +3 now -2.5, Southern Miss opened +2.5 now -2, Marshall opened -24 now -27.5, Virginia Tech opened +3.5 now +6.5

NBA sharp:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Golden State

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: LA Lakers

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Phoenix, Orlando

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

College basketball sharp:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Michigan, Villanova

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Providence, Michigan

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes:

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

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Mid-Week Sharp Betting Report For Weekend NFL and College Football

November 14, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Here is the mid-week super sharp report for this weekend’s college football and NFL betting.

Thursday NFL total builds on a stunning 16-2 NFL primetime run. Two college football Wise Guy plays Thursday as well. Friday, two college football bombs. A massive Saturday with six Wise Guys including Mountain West Conference Total of the Year plus five Majors. Sunday four NFL up so far. As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. So get Bet it Trinity or Joe Duffy’s Picks seven-day pick pack or longer. Get the picks now

CFB

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Toledo, Boston College, Vanderbilt; Ole Miss over

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Toledo, Boston College, North Texas; Duke OVER, Minnesota UNDER, Texas A&M UNDER, Cincinnati OVER, Memphis OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: New Mexico, Missouri OVER, Texas UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Marshall opened -24 now -27

NFL

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Kansas City, Tennessee OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Green Bay OVER, Tennessee OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: none

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Pittsburgh opened -3.5 now -6, New Orleans -7 to -9

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MNF, NBA Sharp Action, Pros vs. Joes, Major Live Moves, Computer System

November 5, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Rare, I mean utterly rare losing day for JDP. So now is the time to jump on because the bookies have hell to play. Oh, we had one of our worst NFL Sundays in 30 years in the business and finished the football weekend five games above .500. Let that sink in. A nightmare for us is going five games above .500 in football.

Very rare case of MNF side and total. Buy early because we have four NBA led by two Wise Guys led by systems we got from a powerful syndicate. These lines are all but certain to move. Get the picks now

Tennessee-Dallas (-5, 40)

Total opened at 42. Sportsbooks such as Bovada have seen 66 percent of bets and 65 percent of money on the OVER with 64 percent of bets and 58 percent of money on Dallas.

Free pick is New York-Chicago OVER 212.5

Analysis: When two teams are trending UNDER, the game goes over at an 840-665 rate. Plus our outlaw total is 216.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Orlando, Golden State, Houston OVER, Boston OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Orlando, Golden State, Cleveland OVER, Houston OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Golden State OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Utah opened at -1, now +2, Denver -2.5 now pick, Detroit -5.5 now -3.5.

Best teams to bet on in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Milwaukee 6-2-1 covering by an average of 11.4 points per game, Portland 7-3 by 7.1, Charlotte 7-3 by 6.8 points per game, LA Clippers 5-4 by 6.7.

Best teams to bet against in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Houston 2-6 -9.8, Washington 2-7 -9.7, Cleveland 4-5 -7.7.

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College Football Critical Weather, Free Pick, Pros vs. Joes, Other Urgent Gambling Intel

November 2, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Super sharp report for Saturday November 3 including weather, biggest service plays, free pick, injuries, line moves, sharp bets, more.

Biggest bets: Joe Duffy is 791-633 since August of last year! Historic explosion continues with another football sweep last night with Pittsburgh UNDER and MTSU to go to 72-41 in football! JPD has six Wise Guys, eight Majors in college football Saturday! Get the picks now

NFL time from the NFL Specialist! Three NFL Wise Guys and eight Majors. As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. So get Bet it Trinity or Joe Duffy’s Picks four-day pick pack or longer.

CFB:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Iowa State; West Virginia OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Iowa State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Georgia Tech; Arizona State OVER, Oklahoma OVER, Maryland UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: USC, Notre Dame, UCLA OVER, Georgia Tech OVER, Kansas UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Notre Dame opened -7 now -10, Oregon -13 to -10, Oklahoma -10.5 to -13.5

Free pick is from Joe Duffy’s Picks:

Texas A&M-Auburn UNDER 49

At least one high scoring team but fairly low total and either or both have a total much less than previous week goes under 406-248.

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Weather:

Michigan State-Maryland

16 mph winds

Air Force-Army

17 mph winds

Oklahoma State-Baylor

18 mph winds

North Texas-Old Dominion

16 mph winds

San Jose State-Wyoming

26 mph winds

Kansas State-TCU

22 mph winds

West Virginia-Texas

18 mph winds

UTEP-Rice

15 mph winds

Connecticut-Tulsa

16 mph winds

Houston-SMU

16 mph winds

Oklahoma-Texas Tech

16 mph winds

Stanford-Washington

76% percent chance of precipitation.

Kent-Buffalo

21 mph winds

California-Washington State

53% percent chance of precipitation.

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Best teams to bet on in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Army 5-2-1 +13.5, Utah State 7-1 +12.6, Fresno State 7-1 +12.1, Cincinnati 5-3 +10.3, Florida International +10

Best teams to bet against in terms of margin of cover (against the spread record followed by margin): Louisville 1-7 -16.4, Florida Atlantic 1-7 -11.8, New Mexico State 2-7 -10.3, Florida State 3-5 -9.4

Biggest over teams (over-under record followed by margin; number of OVERS listed first): Houston 5-3 +12.9, Utah State 7-1 +12.6, Oklahoma 7-1 +12.1, Old Dominion 8-1 +10.6, Oregon State 6-2 +10.6

Biggest under teams: (over-under record followed by margin; number of UNDERS listed first): Miss State 6-1 -13.7, Kentucky 6-2 -13.1, Tulsa 7-1 -11.1, Washington 8-1 -9.6, UAB 7-1 -9.1

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Week 8 NFL Free Pick! Line Moves, Pros vs. Joes

October 28, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Free week 8 NFL pick. Line moves, betting intel from sportsbooks, contrarian, pros vs. Joes, sharp bets in both NFL and NBA for Sunday. Top service bet is: All Wise Guys are 1 ET or later. We are 26-10 NFL and that is fresh of spectacular preseason again! Seven NFL at 1 ET or later led by two Wise Guys including NFL Game of the Week. All Wise Guys are 1 ET or later. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. 774-615 all, 65-34 football.

I am 10-0 in primetime football. SNF included. Get the picks now

NFL:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Washington, New England, Indianapolis, San Francisco (not usual public love of road favorites), Cincinnati; New Orleans OVER, Green Bay OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Green Bay, Houston, San Francisco, Pittsburgh; New Orleans OVER, Green Bay OVER, Indianapolis OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Buffalo, Green Bay; Indianapolis OVER, Green Bay OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Minnesota opened -2.5 to +2, Chicago -6 to -9, Carolina P to +2.5, Cincinnati -4 to -6. This is probably as many moves of at least two points that you will see in the NFL.

NBA:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Golden State; Golden State OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Golden State, Washington; Golden State OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Washington; Golden State OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free pick NFL from Joe Duffy’s Picks:

NY JETS +8 Chicago

Regression to the mean angle based on turnovers, winning percentage and other factors is 512-384.

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Sharp Bets, Free Sports Handicapper Pick, Pros vs. Joes, Contrarian Bets, College Football Line Moves

October 27, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

College football super sharp intel. This is what bettors must know for Saturday. Here is contrarian betting intel, pros vs. Joes, pros vs. shmoes, biggest Vegas line moves, sharp bets, free pick from #1 handicapper, and more.

Top service pick: Joe Duffy’s picks is 61-28 in football and 768-606 overall! Saturday, it is 10 college football winners led by seven Wise Guys! Angles proven, most cross to other sports! Sorry, if you have not been making a fortune for the last 30 years, especially the last 14 months, don’t come bitching to me. Your financial fortune is in front of your damn eyes. Oh, three NBA added. Get the picks now

NFL Game of the Week among eight winners for all those who have a pick pack that includes Sunday.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Texas A&M, Tulsa; Louisiana Tech OVER, Clemson OVER, Indiana OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Houston, Tulsa, Fresno State, Texas A&M, Colorado, Middle Tennessee State; WKU UNDER, Akron UNDER, Texas State UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Georgia State, North Texas, California, Kansas; Pittsburgh UNDER, Stanford UNDER, SMU UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: UNLV from -3.5 to +3, Fresno State -21.5 to -25.5, Arkansas -2.5 to +1, Michigan State -2.5 to +1.

MTSU-Old Dominion

Wind gusts up to 17 mph, light rain

UMass-UConn

Wind 15 mph, rain, temps near 40

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks and his magical computer database!

Wake Forest-Louisville OVER 67

When key offensive and defensive numbers imply total should be lower, use oddsmakers knowledge against them as it goes over 881-683.

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Oct 13 College Football Betting Free Pick, Pros vs. Joes, Vegas Line Moves, Best Teams to Bet On/Against

October 13, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

Off another sweep with Air Force and Tulsa UNDER Joe Duffy is 37-11 in football including Tulsa under and Air Force last night. Saturday, three Wise Guys, five Majors in college football. We added MLB Wise Guy and Major. Get the picks now

Biggest sharp versus square, AKA “pros versus Joes” moves: Southern Miss (by wide margin), Nevada, Arkansas

Biggest public consensus based on percentage of bets: Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Hawaii, Ohio State, Northwestern

Biggest public consensus based on percentage of money: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, Ohio State

Biggest line moves: Utah State opened at -18, now -27; Northwestern -9 down to -3, Auburn -20 down to -14.5

Free pick: Big momentum angle is 514-382-29 OLE MISS -6.5 to Arkansas

Best teams to bet on based on margin of cover (ATS record, margin of cover): Appalachian State (already played this week) 4-0 by +18.5, Utah State 5-0 by +16.1, Cincinnati 5-1 by +15.1

Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover (ATS record, margin of cover): Louisville 1-5 by -16.8, UL Monroe 1-5 by -14.8, Navy 1-4 by -13

Top over teams by margin: Toledo over 5-0 by 19.6 points per game, UMass 6-1 by +16, Utah State 5-0 by 14.4

Top under teams by margin: Miss State under 4-1 by -14.2, Auburn 5-1 by -10.2, Kentucky 4-2 by -9.2

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

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Major Sports Betting Info For Tonight in College Basketball and NBA

March 21, 2018 Joe Duffy Leave a comment

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Wednesday betting intel, free college basketball winner, nba inside info from Joe Duffy

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Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.