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March 26, 2020

Pro Gamblers Think the Opposite of Square Gamblers; Jaw-Dropping Examples

Most successful systems fit under umbrella of “counterintuitive.” Here are show notes from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s latest sports betting tutorial. Trapped inside while under quarantine? Check out what this vetted sportsbook has going. Hint: a lot of money to be won!

  • If hotter and better teams were the teams that covered most, no bookies would be around
  • Always regression to mean
  • Best teams would generally have to play better to cover
  • Worst teams would generally have to play even worse

Know exceptions

  • NBA totals, especially recent years with rules having scores skyrocketing
    • Most top over systems with high totals
    • Most to under systems with low totals
  • Reasonable explanation as inflated scores have bettors
    • Terrified of low totals under
    • Even over players get sticker shock at 240

Conclusion

  • In sports handicapping “trusting instincts is bad”
    • Oddsmakers know what common beliefs are
  • Toughest bets to root for are generally better bets
    • Colder, inferior teams

Joe Duffy is a predictive sports modeling pioneer and still the best. His bets are at OffshoreInsiders.com   

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