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Sports Gambling Podcast: Exploiting Splits

Show notes on Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com superb podcast on betting splits. 

Listen to the full podcast here

What are splits?

  • How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy 
  • Most common usage is home/away stats

Sharp versus square usage 

  • Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team
    • False, such stats rarely hold up
  • Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage 
    • Road favorite is almost always sharp bet
    • “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is

Why do anti-splits do so well?

  • Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde
  • Splits regress to the mean
  • SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up
  • Use oddsmakers knowledge against them
    • Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message”

Conclusion

  • Don’t outsmart yourself
  • Think outside the box
    • Zig while square zag
  • If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell

Why Are Computer Programs the Ultimate Betting Sports Weapon?

Show notes from the top sports betting podcast on earth. Joe’s Duffy’s podcast traces roots back to 1980 on the scorephones.  

Eliminates Biases

Most love favorites, some dogs; over/under

Road favorites sucker plays in NFL, yet very good NBA

Underdogs, especially big ones, generally good bet; but not college football

Facts first

Situations where I’ve gone with big favorites in MLB, which I hate

Takes advantage of biases!

Thousands of Man Hours; Never Miss

Computer software stores the system and tells you when it applies

Old days with unranked favorites to ranked teams

So many of the best opportunities are small college football totals

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Jeopardy Betting Takes Off During Coronavirus Lockdown

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Jeopardy! March 23 – How Many Daily Doubles Will Be Correctly Answered? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • 2 EVEN 
  • 3 +225 
  • 1 +250 
  • 0 +1500 

Jeopardy! March 23 – What Percentage Of Player’s Balance Will Be Risked On The First Daily Double? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Over 77.5%-130 
  • Under 77.5%EVEN 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Who Will Win Tonight’s Episode? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Michonne (Left Contestant)+135 
  • Far Right Contestant+175 
  • Middle Contestant+175 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Will All Three Competitors Advance To Final Jeopardy! ? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Yes-1400 
  • No+650 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Will All Three Competitors Answer Final Jeopardy! Correctly? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • No-500 
  • Yes+300 

If all three do not advance to Final Jeopardy! then No is the winner

Jeopardy! March 23 – Will Someone Forget To Answer In The Form Of A Question? 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • No-700 
  • Yes+400 

Jeopardy! March 23 – Winning Competitor’s Balance 

3/23/20 10:30 AM 

Winner 

  • Over $18,000-115 
  • Under $18,000-115