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March 24, 2020

Sports Gambling Podcast: Exploiting Splits

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , — Joe Duffy @ 9:00 PM

Show notes on Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com superb podcast on betting splits. 

Listen to the full podcast here

What are splits?

  • How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy 
  • Most common usage is home/away stats

Sharp versus square usage 

  • Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team
    • False, such stats rarely hold up
  • Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage 
    • Road favorite is almost always sharp bet
    • “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is

Why do anti-splits do so well?

  • Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde
  • Splits regress to the mean
  • SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up
  • Use oddsmakers knowledge against them
    • Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message”

Conclusion

  • Don’t outsmart yourself
  • Think outside the box
    • Zig while square zag
  • If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell

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