Show notes on Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com superb podcast on betting splits.
What are splits?
- How a pitcher or team does in a subcategory, the most popular being home/road dichotomy
- Most common usage is home/away stats
Sharp versus square usage
- Prevailing theory if one or both teams substantially better at home than road, go with home team
- False, such stats rarely hold up
- Fool’s Gold is going with home underdogs if their home winning percentage much better than road teams away winning percentage
- Road favorite is almost always sharp bet
- “Louder” the statement, the stronger it is
Why do anti-splits do so well?
- Very rarely, especially in pro sports, is a team truly Jekyll and Hyde
- Splits regress to the mean
- SU stats overrated anyway, though even points per game margin splits don’t hold up
- Use oddsmakers knowledge against them
- Counterintuitive odds; follow the “message”
- Don’t outsmart yourself
- Think outside the box
- Zig while square zag
- If your capper advises you to ride splits, run like hell