Oddstrader: San Francisco 27-21 (good edge to Niners)
BetQL: San Francisco 27-23
Massey: San Francisco 26-23
Betting pros: San Francisco -2.8, 47.3 with UNDER covering 56%, Seattle 52%
Action Network: San Francisco -3, 47.5 (lean UNDER)
Systems:
Road teams that had at least one fumble last game versus opponent that had 11 or fewer third down attempts are 567-439-20. (SFN)
Trends:
Seattle 10-1 on a short week and off a game of two or fewer interceptions is 10-1
Free pick from Joe Duffy:
UTEP +19.5 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky blew a 13-point fourth quarter lead last game. Teams that blew at least an 11-point fourth quarter lead is 101-72-3. Sportsline has us covering 58% of simulations, winning 40-17.
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Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet.
Systems:
Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)
Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home team’s home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)
First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)
Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)
Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)
Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)
Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)
Public loves overs, so books need unders says it’s not coincidental
Trends
Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years
Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lights
Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetime
Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogs
Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him
Notes:
Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68
Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson
Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer
Prop bets
Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards
Integrated more into offense and Tampa’s WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passes
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carries
He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries
The Fins are far and away the worst spread team in the NFL at 0-4 and -15.6 margin of cover. Regression towards the mean angle that says go with a horrible ATS team is 292-196-7. Speaking of regression, in the name of full disclosure its historic success is greater than in recent years. Underdogs looking for at least their third straight win in the series are 19-4. Teams that have allowed substantially more points than expected over the last two games, based on delta points allowed are 40-10-2. Fading favorites that are almost always in an underdog role is 167-103-13. The Fins have looked poor, but this week they are the NFL winning bet.
🏈 3 Thursday night sides: NFL and 2 CFB. 📊 Friday CFB total 🔥 Saturday: CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors. 🏈Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner. All this at OffshoreInsiders.com
Are the Commanders for real? Can anyone beat Minnesota? Will the Jags ever earn a W? The best NFL handicappers know this answer.
A lot of storylines emerged from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and again, there were a lot of upsets.
Below, we take a peek ahead into Week 5.
Every Friday, Betonline releases look-ahead lines for the following week. The look-ahead numbers are taken down on Sunday right before the games start, and then they are re-opened Sunday evening.
If there’s significant movement (1.5 points or more) from the look-ahead spread or total that are released prior to Week 4, that will be notated under the opening line below.
NFL Week 5 spread are subject to change at Betonline from these NFL opening lines.
NFL Week 5 Opening Odds
Thursday, October 3
Bucs @ Falcons (-2.5, 42.5)
Sunday, October 6
Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5, 41.5)
Panthers @ Bears (-4.5, 43.5)
Ravens @ Bengals (+1.5, 48.5)
(Look-ahead total was 47)
Dolphins @ Patriots (PK, 36)
(Look-ahead total was 42.5)
Browns @ Commanders (-3, 44)
Colts @ Jags (-2.5, 45.5)
Bills @ Texans (+2.5, 47)
(Look-ahead spread was Bills -1)
Raiders @ Broncos (-2, 36)
Cardinals @ 49ers (-7, 48.5)
Packers @ Rams (+3, 46.5)
Giants @ Seahawks (-6, 42)
Cowboys @ Steelers (-2, 41)
(Look-ahead spread was a pick ‘em)
Monday, October 7
Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43)
(Look-ahead total was 45.5)
Get the winning bets at OffshoreInsiders.com We uses NFL opening lines, lookahead lines, with other power ratings, computer sims, betting models and more.
Free winning pick from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com
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Bubble burst angle that has to do with fading teams off a heartbreaking loss. We have several versions of it with similar concept, but slightly different metrics, all with uncanny results. This one is 96-29-4. It has to do with teams off their first loss of the season and it being a blowout loss.
Frankly, because it has not been as automatic in recent years, it is not a premium bet at this moment, but our free picks are either premium bets or our top games that we are considering for premium.
Joe Duffy has💥 2 Friday bets, including an insane 62-14-1 super system
Saturday🔥 FSI Total of the Year !🎯 Another named play winner among 4 Wise Guys 🤯 and 11 Majors 🎲
🏆 11 Sunday NFL: AI super systems 🤖, outsourced bets (biggest picks from MasterLockLine), contrarian intel
Opening Line: Cowboys -4, Total 44.5 Current Line:Cowboys -6, Total 45.5 Betting Percentages:
Dallas: 83% of bets, 80% of money
Over: 66% of wagers, 60% of handle
Key Systems & NFL Betting Trends:
Thursday Night Road Teams in Close Games: Teams like Dallas, playing on the road on a Thursday night when the game is not expected to be a blowout, have historically thrived, going 35-9 ATS (Against The Spread).
Home Underdogs Off a Road Win: The Giants find themselves in a favorable spot here. Home underdogs coming off a win as a road underdog, in specific situational trends like this, are 164-117-13 ATS, pointing to a potential cover by New York.
Fumbles and Third Downs: Dallas also benefits from a key stat—teams that fumbled in their previous game but are now playing an opponent with fewer than 12 third-down conversions (as the Giants have) are 562-435-20 ATS. This stat edges in Dallas’ favor.
High Fumble Totals and the Over: Since 2015, if one team had at least one fumble in its last game and the current total is 45 or higher, the game tends to go over the total, hitting at 137-99-4. This points toward a potential over play in this matchup.
NFL Picks Organic Factors to Consider:
Motivation vs. Perception: Bettors should be cautious of wagering on the “team that needs it more.” Dallas may have shown fight in their previous game, but some argue the final score made it look closer than it was.
Series Dominance: The Cowboys completely dominated the Giants in last season’s matchups, winning both games by a combined 89-17. However, division games can be notoriously unpredictable, especially with erratic quarterbacks on both sides.
Sharp Insight on 1st Quarter: One sharp bettor loves Dallas to come out strong after last week’s humiliating performance. Their first-quarter bet on Dallas -0.5 is a strategy to watch for those seeking early game value.
NFL Handicapping Trends to Watch:
Giants’ Resilience: New York has shown a knack for bouncing back after being an underdog. They are 13-0 over the past three seasons in games where they were an underdog of 4.5 points or more and were tied no more than once during the game. This suggests they perform well under pressure.
Brian Daboll’s Magic: Giants head coach Brian Daboll is 15-2 ATS when his team is not winless and coming off a game in which they were not favored by at least 4.5 points.
Giants’ Home Under Trend: Since 2020, Giants home games have trended under the total, going 24-8 in games where they aren’t seeking revenge within the same season.
Computer Models & Power Ratings:
BetQL: Cowboys 27.5, Giants 19 (Slight lean to Dallas)
Sportsline: Cowboys 25, Giants 19
Action Network: Cowboys -4.7, Total 45.1
Massey Ratings: Cowboys 24, Giants 19
Oddstrader: Cowboys 26, Giants 17 (Lean to Dallas)
BettingPros: Cowboys -6, Total 42.5 (Slight lean to the under)
Despite some variance across models, the consensus leans toward a Dallas win by roughly 5-6 points.
Player Prop Bets to Watch:
Wan’Dale Robinson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ zone defense is likely to leave Robinson as a safety valve. He could see a boost in targets, especially if the Giants are trailing.
Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ two-headed running attack with Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott suggests the younger, fresher Dowdle could see significant work, especially if Dallas builds a lead. The Giants have been vulnerable against the run, making this a solid play.
CeeDee Lamb Over Props: Lamb should be motivated after owning up to mistakes from the previous week. With Andru Phillips out for the Giants, Lamb finds himself in a major mismatch against Deonte Banks, setting him up for a potential breakout performance.
Conclusion: Dallas looks poised to cover, especially with systems favoring Thursday night road teams and fumble-related trends working in their favor. However, the Giants’ impressive home underdog trends and Brian Daboll’s track record suggest they could keep it closer than expected. This game may also lean toward the over, given the historical trends surrounding higher totals with fumbles in play. Prop bettors should focus on Lamb, Robinson, and Dowdle for value plays.
Expect a competitive NFC East clash with plenty of betting angles to explore!
Spread: 83% of bets and 80% of the money are on the Cowboys.
Total Points: 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle are on the OVER.
Analysis
The betting splits for this Thursday Night Football game show a significant public lean towards the Dallas Cowboys. With 83% of bets and 80% of the money backing Dallas, this presents a classic opportunity for contrarian bettors to fade the public. Historically, betting against the public in such lopsided scenarios can be profitable, especially when the line has moved from its opening position of Cowboys -4 to -6 at sportsbooks.
The total points market also shows a majority of bets on the OVER, with 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle. This indicates that the public expects a high-scoring game, which might be another angle for contrarian bettors to consider.
Joe Duffy’s Insights
Joe Duffy, a renowned sports handicapper, is kicking off his third consecutive winning week with a strong lineup of bets. His picks for Thursday Night Football include both the side and total, along with a college football side, an NFL player prop, and an MLB side. Duffy’s track record this season is impressive, with a 6-0 record on named plays in football and an 11-5 record in the NFL. His latest success includes hitting the Bills OVER as the Monday Night Football Total of the Year.
For more detailed analysis and picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com.
Every Thursday or Friday, Betonline opens up look-ahead lines for the following week. They are taken down on Sunday right before the games start. Here are the opening lines and lookahead lines for week 4.
Then they are re-opened once the games end. OffshoreInsiders.com exploits this intel.
Sometimes there can be a massive change based on injuries or poor play.
If there’s a big line movement from the look-ahead lines, that will be notated.
As you’ll see below, Week 4 has had by far the biggest changes from the look-ahead lines.
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