Sports gambling notes for Thursday, Sept 22

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Betting Info

Pittsburgh-Cleveland (-4.5, 38.5)

🏈Opened Cleveland -2.5, 40.5

🏈Side: Pittsburgh with 76% of bets, 75% of money

🏈OU: 52% bets, 87% of money on under

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

NFL

🔥Browns edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Chase Winovich are out. Myles Garrett has been upgraded to probable

🔥Steelers without TJ Watt

🔥Steelers 3-8-1 ATS after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

🔥Cleveland 21-48-1 off loss

🔥Pittsburgh under 44-18 road

🔥Cleveland under 6-1 Thursdays

 NCAAF

🔥VA Tech 1-11 off win

🔥WVU under 53-26 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game

💰💰💰Top expert pick from Joe Duffy. Thursday Night College Football Total of the Year plus NFL side and total on Pittsburgh-Cleveland.

Huge weekend up too at OffshoreInsiders.com

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Over the previous three years, 27 NFL teams started the season 0-2. None of them made the playoffs.

Three teams who made the playoffs last year, including the conference’s top seed and the AFC champion, are not favored to make the tournament after 0-2 starts. 

SportsBetting  updates its NFL Playoffs odds and victory totals for all 32 teams every week of the season, which you can find via the links below. 

If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source.

Here are the numbers, current and preseason, for the aforementioned winless clubs.

Bengals Make Playoffs?

Yes +145 

No -175

(Odds imply a 40.8% probability Cincinnati will not make the playoffs. Bengals were -130 to make playoffs during the preseason.)

Titans Make Playoffs?

Yes +130

No -160

(Odds imply a 43.5% probability Tennessee will not make the playoffs. Titans were -125 to make playoffs during the preseason.)

Raiders Make Playoffs?

Yes +230

No -260

(Odds imply a 30.3% probability Las Vegas will not make the playoffs. Raiders were +170 to make playoffs during the preseason.)

Panthers Make Playoffs?

Yes +550

No -900

Falcons Make Playoffs?

Yes +1800

No -5000

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Inside info for Sunday, September 18, 2022 NFL betting

🔥Houston under 11-of-15 road

🔥 Texas played a full extra quarter and now to go to high altidude

🔥Bengals turned ball over 5 times last week

🔥Away favorites of three or more after 5 or more turnovers in a loss just 16-23-2 ATS

🔥Saints 13-7 home underdogs

🔥Giants corner Aaron Robinson out and two edge rushers doubtful

🔥Tits Mike Vrabel 13-3 underdogs of 4 or more points 

🔥Carson Wentz excelled in his Washington debut and gets to play another horrible defense this week

💰💰💰Top expert pick:  Stevie Vincent swept moneyline dogs of +550, +300 yesterday. He’s 277-146 overall since early June. Perfect Play, moneyline dog lead the way today at OffshoreInsiders.com

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Saturday, September 17 college football market report.

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Utah, Rutgers, Minnesota, Ole Miss

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Utah, Old Dominion, Georgia, Western Kentucky

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Coastal Carolina opened -18.5 now -12.5, Cincinnati -20 to -23.5, Iowa -20 to -23.5, Virginia -10.5 to -7.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: New Mexico, South Florida, Fresno State, Nebraska 

🖥Joe Duffy swept again last night, now 19-7; 3 Game/Totals of Year among 12 winners, 8 Wise Guys. Insane! OffshoreInsiders.com

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

We still have one more game to play in Week 1, but “overreaction week” is already in overdrive. 

The oddsmakers have to account for those knee-jerk reactions from the bettors, as well as key injuries (Dak Prescott), and therefore have made some major changes to the NFL odds board.

Below you will find the latest Super Bowl, conference, division, MVP, OROY, DROY, Comeback POY and Coach of the Year odds. 

Notable movements in below odds from last Monday to today from SportsBetting   

– Eagles Super Bowl: 20-1 to 14-1

– Eagles division: +130 to -180

– Cowboys Super Bowl: 22-1 to 50-1

– Cowboys division: +145 to +550

– Bengals Super Bowl: 16-1 to 28-1

– Bengals division: +170 to +300

– Patrick Mahomes MVP: 9-1 to 5-1

– Jahan Dotson OROY: 22-1 to 5-1 (new favorite)

– Travon Walker DROY: 12-1 to 5-1 (new favorite)

– Saquon Barkley Comeback POY: 12-1 to 4-1 (new favorite)

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AFC East                      

Buffalo Bills                 -350

Miami Dolphins          +400

New England Patriots +850

New York Jets             +5000

AFC North                   

Baltimore Ravens                    +110

Cincinnati Bengals                  +300

Cleveland Browns                   +350

Pittsburgh Steelers                 +550

AFC South                   

Indianapolis Colts                   -145

Tennessee Titans                    +225

Jacksonville Jaguars                +650

Houston Texans                      +1400

AFC West                    

Kansas City Chiefs                   +150

Los Angeles Chargers              +190

Denver Broncos                      +300

Las Vegas Raiders                   +800

NFC East                      

Philadelphia Eagles                 -180

Dallas Cowboys                       +550

New York Giants                     +550

Washington Commanders      +550

NFC North                   

Green Bay Packers                  +115

Minnesota Vikings                  +120

Detroit Lions                           +950

Chicago Bears                         +1000

NFC South                   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           -275

New Orleans Saints                 +250

Carolina Panthers                   +1400

Atlanta Falcons                       +5000

NFC West                    

Los Angeles Rams                   +120

San Francisco 49ers                +150

Arizona Cardinals                    +450

Seattle Seahawks                    +1400

Super Bowl                 

Buffalo Bills                             +500

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           +750

Kansas City Chiefs                   +800

Los Angeles Chargers              +1100

Philadelphia Eagles                 +1400

Baltimore Ravens                    +1600

Green Bay Packers                  +1600

Los Angeles Rams                   +1600

Denver Broncos                      +2000

San Francisco 49ers                +2000

Minnesota Vikings                  +2200

Indianapolis Colts                   +2500

Cincinnati Bengals                  +2800

Miami Dolphins                      +2800

New Orleans Saints                 +2800

Cleveland Browns                   +4000

Las Vegas Raiders                   +4500

Arizona Cardinals                    +5000

Dallas Cowboys                       +5000

Tennessee Titans                    +5500

New England Patriots             +6600

Pittsburgh Steelers                 +6600

Washington Commanders      +6600

Chicago Bears                         +10000

New York Giants                     +10000

Carolina Panthers                   +15000

Detroit Lions                           +15000

Jacksonville Jaguars                +15000

Houston Texans                      +20000

Seattle Seahawks                    +20000

Atlanta Falcons                       +30000

New York Jets                         +30000

AFC                  

Buffalo Bills                             +300

Kansas City Chiefs                   +450

Los Angeles Chargers              +650

Baltimore Ravens                    +1000

Denver Broncos                      +1000

Cincinnati Bengals                  +1400

Indianapolis Colts                   +1400

Miami Dolphins                      +1400

Cleveland Browns                   +2000

Las Vegas Raiders                   +2200

Tennessee Titans                    +2800

New England Patriots             +3300

Pittsburgh Steelers                 +3300

Jacksonville Jaguars                +8000

Houston Texans                      +12500

New York Jets                         +12500

NFC                 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           +300

Philadelphia Eagles                 +525

Green Bay Packers                  +650

Los Angeles Rams                   +650

Minnesota Vikings                  +900

San Francisco 49ers                +900

New Orleans Saints                 +1400

Arizona Cardinals                    +2200

Dallas Cowboys                       +2500

Washington Commanders      +2800

New York Giants                     +4000

Chicago Bears                         +5000

Carolina Panthers                   +6600

Detroit Lions                           +7500

Seattle Seahawks                    +8000

Atlanta Falcons                       +12500

MVP                

Josh Allen                    +450

Patrick Mahomes        +500

Justin Herbert             +800

Tom Brady                  +900

Jalen Hurts                  +1400

Lamar Jackson            +1400

Kirk Cousins                +1600

Russell Wilson             +1600

Aaron Rodgers            +2000

Joe Burrow                  +2000

Derek Carr                   +2200

Matthew Stafford       +3300

Trey Lance                   +3300

Jameis Winston           +4000

Tua Tagovailoa            +4000

Jonathan Taylor          +5000

Kyler Murray               +5000

Carson Wentz             +6600

Justin Jefferson           +6600

Mac Jones                   +6600

Matt Ryan                   +6600

Daniel Jones                +7500

Derrick Henry              +7500

Justin Fields                +7500

Mitch Trubisky            +7500

Trevor Lawrence         +7500

Baker Mayfield            +10000

Cooper Kupp               +10000

Davante Adams          +10000

Ja’Marr Chase             +12500

Christian McCaffrey    +15000

Deebo Samuel            +15000

Jared Goff                   +15000

Jimmy Garoppolo       +15000

Ryan Tannehill            +15000

Alvin Kamara               +20000

Nick Chubb                  +25000

Dalvin Cook                 +30000

OROY              

Jahan Dotson              +500

Drake London             +900

George Pickens           +900

Dameon Pierce           +1000

Chris Olave                  +1200

Isaiah Pacheco            +1200

Skyy Moore                 +1200

Kenny Pickett              +1400

Romeo Doubs             +1400

Treylon Burks              +1400

Christian Watson        +1600

Breece Hall                  +2000

Garrett Wilson            +2000

Kyle Phillips                 +2500

Desmond Ridder         +3300

James Cook                 +3300

Rachaad White           +3300

Malik Willis                 +4000

Sam Howell                 +10000

DROY              

Travon Walker            +500

Aidan Hutchinson       +550

Kayvon Thibodeaux    +900

Ahmad Gardner          +1400

Derek Stingley Jr         +1400

Jordan Davis                +1400

Kyle Hamilton             +1400

George Karlaftis          +1600

Jermaine Johnson II    +1600

Devin Lloyd                 +2000

Nakobe Dean              +2000

Quay Walker               +2000

Kaiir Elam                    +2500

Trent McDuffie           +2500

Jaquan Brisker            +2800

Sam Williams              +3300

Andrew Booth Jr         +4000

Daxton Hill                  +4000

Kyler Gordon               +4000

Lewis Cine                   +4000

Arnold Ebiketie           +5000

Drake Jackson             +5000

Roger McCreary          +5000

Boye Mafe                  +5500

Malcolm Rodriguez     +6000

Devonte Wyatt           +6600

Jalen Pitre                   +6600

Leo Chenal                  +6600

Brian Asamoah           +7500

Christian Harris           +7500

Comeback POY                       

Saquon Barkley           +400

Jameis Winston           +600

Derrick Henry              +650

Christian McCaffrey    +900

Lamar Jackson            +900

Khalil Mack                 +1000

Michael Thomas         +1200

Mitch Trubisky            +1400

Julio Jones                   +1600

JuJu Smith-Schuster    +1800

Marcus Mariota          +2500

Allen Robinson III        +3300

Chris Godwin              +3300

Daniel Jones                +3300

JK Dobbins                  +3300

Travis Etienne             +3300

Chase Young               +5000

Danielle Hunter          +5000

Robert Woods             +5000

Cam Akers                   +6600

Drew Lock                   +6600

DeAndre Hopkins        +7500

Marcus Peters             +7500

Raheem Mostert         +7500

Will Fuller V                +7500

Coach of the Year                   

Brian Daboll                +700

Kevin O’Connell          +700

Brandon Staley           +800

Mike McDaniel            +800

Nick Sirianni                +1200

Sean McDermott        +1400

Mike Tomlin                +1600

Nathaniel Hackett       +1600

Dan Campbell             +1800

Doug Pederson           +2200

Kevin Stefanski            +2200

Matt Eberflus              +2200

Dennis Allen                +2500

Frank Reich                 +2500

Lovie Smith                 +2500

Ron Rivera                   +2500

John Harbaugh            +2800

Josh McDaniels           +3300

Kyle Shanahan            +3300

Andy Reid                    +4000

Matt Lafleur                +4000

Todd Bowles               +4000

Zac Taylor                   +4000

Arthur Smith               +5000

Mike Vrabel                +5000

Pete Carroll                 +5000

Robert Saleh               +5000

Kliff Kingsbury             +6600

Matt Rhule                  +6600

Mike McCarthy           +6600

Sean McVay                +6600

Bill Belichick                +10000

Sunday, September 11🇺🇸, 2002 NFL betting primer, week 1 footbal picks. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Baltimore, Carolina, Jacksonville

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Carolina

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Minnesota +2 to -1.5, Kansas City -3 to -6.5,  Cleveland +1.5 to -1.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: NY Giants, Houston, Chicago

🖥 1 ET. Big Red’s syndicate betting one of their strongest NFL total bet at 1 ET. Big Red is a major figure and pioneer in offshore betting. He has unique access to professional oddsmakers and gamblers. All his bets are based on consulting with elite handicappers, pro bettors and linesmakers and tops the list of sources for LateInfo. OffshoreInsiders.com

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

NFL Betting Inside Information

🔥Kevin O’Connell takes over as HC for Minnesota 

🔥System: week 1 divisional dogs are 15-5 ATS, 12-7-1 SU since 2018, 28-8 ATS since 2014, 21-16 SU. Favors Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New England, Houston, Minnesota, Las Vegas

🔥Above stat includes 4-0-1 SU, 5-0 ATS at home since ’18, 10-2 ATS,  8-3-1 SU since 2014: Atlanta, Houston, Minnesota 

🔥Saints have won four straight SU in Atlanta and Falcons off 0-7 ATS home campaign 

🔥Marcus Mariota takes over as QB for Atlanta, Jameis Winston for New Orleans 

🔥Lions shuffling OL because of injuries 

🔥Eagles won last year in Detroit 44-6

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🔥Steelers starters play a lot more in preseason than Bengals

🔥Cincinnati swept Pittsburgh last year by a combined 65-20 even though Pittsburgh outgained them

🔥Steelers start journeyman Mitch Trubisky at QB, keeping seat warm for local kid Kenny Pickett as Pittsburgh begins post-Roethlisberger era 

🔥Jets current starting QB Joe Flacco may be extra motivated facing his old team, but has lost seven straight as a starting QB SU

🔥Ravens looked substantially better than Jets in NFLX

🔥Another QB facing old team as Panthers Baker Mayfield taking on the team that gave up on him

🔥Browns start journeyman Jacoby Brissett at QB; regular starter Deshaun Watson is suspended

🔥Oft injured superstar Christian McCaffrey is healthy for now for Panthers

🔥Browns 0-16-1 SU in season openers, including pair of 30-point losses last three

🔥Super Bowl winning coach Doug Peterson takes over the dysfunctional Jags hoping to transform Trevor Lawrence into a franchise QB

🔥Fins debut new HC Mike McDaniel 

🔥Pats with a lot of question marks on OL ad lost OC Josh McDaniels 

The NL East is all tied up at the top following the Braves’ six-game streak and a three-game skid by the Mets.

However, according to the odds from SportsBetting, the Mets are still favored to capture the division crown, and they have better World Series odds.

Just two weeks ago, the Braves were +450 for the division. They were +575 to take the NL East three weeks ago and reached as high as +700 on August 9.

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Atlanta was as high as +1800 for the World Series back in the first week of June.

The mercurial Yankees have seen their division, pennant and title chances trend the other way of late. 

New York had World Series odds as low as +300 on August 1. They are currently fourth on the odds board at +525.

If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source.

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NL East Odds              

New York Mets                       -155

Atlanta Braves                        +125

AL East Odds               

New York Yankees                  -800

Tampa Bay Rays                      +900

Toronto Blue Jays                   +1100

AL Central Odds                     

Cleveland Guardians               -145

Minnesota Twins                    +240

Chicago White Sox                  +425

World Series Odds                 

Los Angeles Dodgers               +300

Houston Astros                       +425

New York Mets                       +475

New York Yankees                  +525

Atlanta Braves                        +800

Toronto Blue Jays                   +1800

Seattle Mariners                     +2000

St. Louis Cardinals                   +2000

Tampa Bay Rays                      +2500

San Diego Padres                    +2800

Philadelphia Phillies                +3300

Cleveland Guardians               +5000

Baltimore Orioles                    +8000

Chicago White Sox                  +8000

Milwaukee Brewers                +8000

Minnesota Twins                    +8000

AL Pennant Odds                    

Houston Astros                       +155

New York Yankees                  +200

Toronto Blue Jays                   +750

Seattle Mariners                     +900

Tampa Bay Rays                      +1000

Cleveland Guardians               +2200

Minnesota Twins                    +3300

Baltimore Orioles                    +4000

Chicago White Sox                  +4000

NL Pennant Odds                   

Los Angeles Dodgers               +150

New York Mets                       +235

Atlanta Braves                        +375

St Louis Cardinals                    +1000

San Diego Padres                    +1400

Philadelphia Phillies                +1600

Milwaukee Brewers                +3500

There are a ton of question marks surrounding the quarterback contingent going into the 2022 NFL season.

QB battles played out during the preseason, and now we have our final list of 32 starters (kind of). But we certainly know that some will be on short leashes.

SportsBetting  has set odds on which signal caller will be the first sidelined due to poor performance (non-injury related), and the man replacing Ben Roethlisberger apparently has the shortest leash.

Steelers’ starting quarterback (or perhaps not since Mike Tomlin hasn’t officially named a starter) Mitch Trubisky tops the list with rookie Kenny Pickett breathing down his neck.

Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones and Davis Mills round out the four candidates with the lowest odds.

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Four, yes four free college football picks for this weekend, plus week 1 NFL trends on the Tailgate Party

First QB Benched Odds

Mitch Trubisky            3-1

Baker Mayfield            6-1

Daniel Jones                6-1

Davis Mills                   7-1

Carson Wentz             9-1

Marcus Mariota          9-1

Geno Smith                 10-1

Trey Lance                   10-1

Jameis Winston           12-1

Jared Goff                   12-1

Justin Fields                14-1

Ryan Tannehill            14-1

Tua Tagovailoa            16-1

Jalen Hurts                  25-1

Other than unranked Florida knocking off No. 7 Utah, there weren’t any major upsets during the first weekend of college football, and that wasn’t even much of an upset given the 3-point spread.

However, the outcomes of Week 1 did impact the CFP Championship and Heisman odds. 

Here are some notes, courtesy of SportsBetting :

– CJ Stroud remains the Heisman favorite

– Bryce Young moved into second, going from 5-1 to 3-1

– Caleb Williams dropped to third, going from 4-1 to 6-1

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– Anthony Richardson made the second-biggest move, going from 33-1 to 14-1

– Stetson Bennett made the biggest move, going from 60-1 to 20-1

– Bijan Robinson went from 33-1 to 25-1

– Georgia moved into second, going from 5-1 to 7-2 (+350)

– Ohio State fell from 7-2 to 4-1

– USC made a big move, going from 22-1 to 14-1

– Notre Dame fell from 40-1 to 50-1

– Utah went from 60-1 to 100-1

– Oregon went from 100-1 to 250-1

– Florida remained at 100-1

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Here are the biggest public wagers in terms of percentages of bets and money for week 1 of college football. It is the popular market report!

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LSU, Tulsa, Houston, Oklahoma

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Michigan, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Miss State

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Nevada opened -8 now +1.5, Kentucky -20.5 down to -14.5, Appalachian State +3, now -2.5, Tulsa -1.5 to -6.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Troy, Miss State.

🖥 Stevie Vincent is ripping. Hell yes, TGO’s historic baseball season goes on during football. Three gridiron winners, two pro baseball in the midst of a historic 262-142 explosion since early June. Get the picks now 

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.