You just might be a complete buffoon if you are still on the outside looking in. At Joe Duffy’s Picks we have had a whole heck of a lot more peaks than valleys in 28 years as a full-time pro gambler and handicapper and several years previous before going pro.

My 25^th best season in any sport is better than most will ever experience on their own. This time last week I was in the midst of a top 12 football season. Twelve consecutive wins later (both overall and just in football), it has been elevated to one of the greatest seasons ever in any sport. Here is what every pro gambler has gotten the last few days.

For the rest of you, welcome to your wake-up call. Joe Duffy’s Picks always has an always will be the best ever at OffshoreInsiders.com

Saturday sweep:

CFB

Wise Guy

TULANE +23 Navy

American Athletic Conference Game of the Year

Tulane fits into our remarkable bubble burst angle in which previously undefeated teams are off of a loss under very specific parameters. It is 51-9 against the spread. A week off does not slow the angle down at all.

OLE MISS -5.5 Texas A&M

A&M famed bubble burst off heartbreaking and deflating loss to Alabama. They hit road at good Ole Miss team. Yes Ole Miss off tough loss too, but A&M was first of year and fits into 51-9 bubble burst. If A&M pulled off the mild upset it  would have put them firmly into title talk.

Kyle Allen, one of the most accurate quarterbacks during the first five games this season, had three interceptions returned for touchdowns by Crimson Tide. He completed only half of his attempts (20 of 40), well below his season mark of 60.9 percent. His confidence has to be fragile as he plays at a very hostile environment.

Southern Mississippi-Charlotte UNDER 64

Charlotte is most definitely a run-first team and they are off easily the two best rushing efforts of the season. They only get 5.6 passing yards per attempt to teams normally allowing 7.1 but have combined for 532 yards on the ground the last two games.

Likewise their yards per pass attempt, yards per pass, and yards per play on defense suggest they are much better than the points per game statistic indicates. Look for Charlotte to go heavy with Kalif Phillips, who has 125 carries for 703 yards and four touchdowns to lead C-USA in rushing.

Southern Miss is going to focus on taking care of the ball this week, which means likely a more conservative approach. Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) has a total of 56. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves.

Major

OKLAHOMA STATE -33.5 Kansas

We have an angle that has to do with well-rested big favorites that is 62-23-4.  The winning percentage is even better when off a win. Kansas has an abysmal defense. OSU has one chink in the armor in that they do not run well. But Kansas cannot stop the run.

Georgia Tech-Florida State UNDER 57

We have a splendid angle that has to do with a team coming off a dominating rushing effort that has gone under a crazy 332-211.  We also know of some sharp action on the under.

OKLAHOMA -14.5 Texas Tech

We have a splendid momentum angle that is 666-492-26. Tech struggled on the road last week to a bad Kansas team. Sure they may have been in a look ahead but they are a team that gave up 63 and 55 to TCU and Baylor. While Oklahoma may not be as dominant, they are the third best offense Tech has faced this season and they failed miserably in the other two.

Oklahoma has their offense is thriving under OC Lincoln Riley as the Sooners are averaging 127 more passing yards per game than last season. Oklahoma will host Texas Tech at full strength and redshirt freshman Joe Mixon along with sophomore Semaje Perine will be looking to rack up the yards in the same fashion that the Sooners did last season. T Tech is allowing a very generous 5.9 yards per rushing attempt versus squads that usually get 5.4. This will get ugly.

USC -3.5 Utah

This game fits into the old adage of using oddsmakers knowledge against them. We have unranked team is laying 3.5 (more than normal home field advantage to No. 3 team in nation great example.

We have always said W-L is overrated.  USC is 3-3 straight up while Utah is 6-0 yet both have +17 points per game margin as Utah has had close wins and USC close losses.

USC more talented, especially on offense. Staseen preseason consensus had USC No. 9 in the country and Utah was No. 47.

This is a classic overachieving and underachieving game. We will listen to what the oddsmakers are saying and go with USC.

Thursday sweep

NFL

Wise Guy

SEATTLE -5.5 San Francisco

Teams that are winless in road games and are road favorites in game 6 or later are 19-4 since 2007. Seattle has a deceptively bad record. Seahawks four losses were at St. Louis, at Green Bay, at Cincinnati and at Carolina. Those are losses to 3-of-5 undefeated teams and 2-of-3 teams with six wins.

Over the year first year head coaches on Thursday Night Football have been great fades. This is especially when someone has not been a head coach previously as is the case with Jim Tomsula.

The Niners are all but assured of coming out flat in this one off a rare quality effort.

Georgia Southern-Appalachian State UNDER 62

I especially expect Georgia Southern with their one-dimensional offense to struggle overall to App State. However they are too good of a rushing team to be completely shut down, so I expect them to have long sustained drives that eat up the clock.

GA Southern was shutout by the best defense they faced all season Clemson. Of course App State is not as dominant, but is the second best defense they have faced. They allow just 11.8 points per game to teams averaging 20.3 on 3.2 yards per rushing attempt to 3.5 and 5.9 yards per pass to 6.9. The matchups indicate decent success on the ground but little in the air for Southern as they get a mere 5.7 yards per pass to teams normally allowing 8.

Friday sweep:

CFB

Major

MEMPHIS -10 Tulsa

At first glance, I was worried about Memphis with a possible letdown on short week. As a new power, cannot see them overlooking anyone. In fact, they now are a true fly-in-the-ointment team that has to go into statement mode.

Memphis could be highest rated non-power 5 team or even dark horse playoff team. The have 13 straight wins going back to last year and if they win the AAC, which is gaining respect, they can sneak into playoff conversation.

Paxton Lynch has thrown for 1,919 yards, 13 TDs, completing nearly 71 percent of passes with just the one interception, so they have the firepower to do it. On national TV, they can show the country they are for real

MLB

Wise Guy

KANSAS CITY (VENTURA +124) Toronto (Price)

David Price is 0-7 as a starting pitcher in the playoffs in his career. He is turning into Clayton Manning/Peyton Kershaw. On the other hand Yordani Ventura has been somewhat of an ace (yes pun intentional). The Royals have won six of his seven career postseason starts.

Toronto is under .500 on the road, while home underdogs KC is 55-31 at home. Enjoy the World Series Royals fans.

CFB

Major

APPALACHIAN STATE -6 Georgia Southern

We have a super strong momentum angle that favors App State that is 666-492-26. Yes I am very aware that Georgia Southern also has momentum, but I ran several queries that asked if their opponent is coming off five straight blowout wins, does it cancel out the angle? Nope, it does not. In fact, most raised the winning percentage, albeit with a substantially smaller sample size.

The Mountaineers lead the conference in total defense, while Latrell Gibbs is tied for the conference lead with five interceptions, including two he returned for touchdowns. Ronald Blair is second in the conference with four sacks.

That is bad news for a Georgia Southern offense that struggles to pass. Appalachian State is the better team because of defense and a more balanced offense. ASU was the favorite to win the conference after showing drastic improvement with young players last season, finishing the year 6-0 straight up. Clearly they are for real and ready to make a statement in a revenge game. But App State is substantially better than when they met last year and playing at home.

GA Southern was shutout by the best defense they faced all season Clemson. Of course App State is not as dominant, but is the second best defense they have faced. They allow just 11.8 points per game to teams averaging 20.3 on 3.2 yards per rushing attempt to 3.5 and 5.9 yards per pass to 6.9. The matchups indicate decent success on the ground but little in the air for Southern as they get a mere 5.7 yards per pass to teams normally allowing 8.

Begin the rest of your gambling life at OffshoreInsiders.com

 

I have not been in the business since 1986 on the scorephone and 1988 as a full-time handicapper by whistling Dixie. I told you gambling history was being made. “Get the Thursday Night Interdivision Game of the Year in the NFL. But it is clearly the best Thursday night of football season as we have Pac-12 Game of the Year one of the few times in history I have had two GOYs in the same day.”

So how did the almost unprecedented two Games of the Year do? You tell me. This is why every damn gambler who demands the best is a client of Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com

Yes, every damn one of them!

NFL

Wise Guy

NEW ORLEANS +3.5 Atlanta

Thursday Night Interdivision Game of the Year

Last week we gave you a rare system that has never lost as far back as our database went and that is back to 1989. Well okay last week it did lose, but of course because of the Andrew Luck injury we told you to buy back and middle. We even told clients who did not bet Houston +1 early in the week that Indy with the overreaction was still the play. So the only loss ever in that system has an asterisk.

Lightening strikes twice as it applies two weeks in a row. Last week we gave you the exact angle because we did not want you to blindly trust us. Because several other handicappers are discovering the greatness of computer software and systems that other sharps and I have exploited for decades, I generally no longer reveal precise parameters.

It has to do with teams off overtime games playing in a very short week though there are other parameters.  So it is 13-1 since 1989, yet applies for the second straight week.

We have said time and time again, the most overrated stat in handicapping games is straight up record. Atlanta is a deceptive 5-0. Falcons three of their wins outscored foes in regulation by a combined six (plus an OT TD). Another was come-from-behind to injury ravaged Cowboys team.

When a team is much worse (11 or more points net difference) in margin of cover after at least five games they are 267-197-8 against the spread. That favors the Saints.

CFB

Wise Guy

STANFORD -6.5 ucla

Pac-12 Game of the Year

We have our best bubble burst angle. When teams are off of a heartbreaking loss under the specific parameters they face tonight, they are a 50-8 go-against. Oh and actually the percentage is higher when they are off a bye week.

Jim Mora Jr. is a classic example of a great recruiter and rah-rah guy when things are going well. But responding to adversity and making adjustments, no.

Stanford lost to Northwestern in their first game. We explained why is was a great spot at the time. They have literally gotten better every game. UCLA has already lost four key defenders to injury Mossi Johnson, Myles Jack, defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes and cornerback Fabian Moreau  and wore down to ASU. Just imagine what will happen to a physical Stanford team. Johnson is also a receiver.

Stanford is a young team that gets better each week. Christian McCaffrey, a sophomore, is second in the nation in all-purpose yards, averaging 229.8 per game. He has 608 yards rushing and a team-high 15 receptions for 168 yards. Stanford can do what they do best, run the ball.

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