I have not been in the business since 1986 on the scorephone and 1988 as a full-time handicapper by whistling Dixie. I told you gambling history was being made. “Get the Thursday Night Interdivision Game of the Year in the NFL. But it is clearly the best Thursday night of football season as we have Pac-12 Game of the Year one of the few times in history I have had two GOYs in the same day.”
So how did the almost unprecedented two Games of the Year do? You tell me. This is why every damn gambler who demands the best is a client of Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
Yes, every damn one of them!
NEW ORLEANS +3.5 Atlanta
Thursday Night Interdivision Game of the Year
Last week we gave you a rare system that has never lost as far back as our database went and that is back to 1989. Well okay last week it did lose, but of course because of the Andrew Luck injury we told you to buy back and middle. We even told clients who did not bet Houston +1 early in the week that Indy with the overreaction was still the play. So the only loss ever in that system has an asterisk.
Lightening strikes twice as it applies two weeks in a row. Last week we gave you the exact angle because we did not want you to blindly trust us. Because several other handicappers are discovering the greatness of computer software and systems that other sharps and I have exploited for decades, I generally no longer reveal precise parameters.
It has to do with teams off overtime games playing in a very short week though there are other parameters. So it is 13-1 since 1989, yet applies for the second straight week.
We have said time and time again, the most overrated stat in handicapping games is straight up record. Atlanta is a deceptive 5-0. Falcons three of their wins outscored foes in regulation by a combined six (plus an OT TD). Another was come-from-behind to injury ravaged Cowboys team.
When a team is much worse (11 or more points net difference) in margin of cover after at least five games they are 267-197-8 against the spread. That favors the Saints.
STANFORD -6.5 ucla
Pac-12 Game of the Year
We have our best bubble burst angle. When teams are off of a heartbreaking loss under the specific parameters they face tonight, they are a 50-8 go-against. Oh and actually the percentage is higher when they are off a bye week.
Jim Mora Jr. is a classic example of a great recruiter and rah-rah guy when things are going well. But responding to adversity and making adjustments, no.
Stanford lost to Northwestern in their first game. We explained why is was a great spot at the time. They have literally gotten better every game. UCLA has already lost four key defenders to injury Mossi Johnson, Myles Jack, defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes and cornerback Fabian Moreau and wore down to ASU. Just imagine what will happen to a physical Stanford team. Johnson is also a receiver.
Stanford is a young team that gets better each week. Christian McCaffrey, a sophomore, is second in the nation in all-purpose yards, averaging 229.8 per game. He has 608 yards rushing and a team-high 15 receptions for 168 yards. Stanford can do what they do best, run the ball.
If you have not raised the bar, do it now at OffshoreInsiders.com