Tag Archives: MLB handicapping

Today’s Free Winning Pick

Alert: night Wise Guy MLB added at 10:12 AM. We win again yesterday led by only Wise Guy on Phillies UNDER. 3:37 ET MLB winner and two night MLB led by a west coast Wise Guy! Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has both NBA sides, both totals for Thursday.  Get the picks now

Free winning pick:

San Francisco-Colorado UNDER 9.5 (Holland-Freeland) at Bovada

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 2629-2111. Also, day games off a high-scoring night game go under 1779-1531-140. When both apply, it goes under 218-162-18.


  • Kevin Durant will miss game 6 for Golden State

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Basketball Free Handicapping Pick

We win again last night. I am 32-22 in the NBA playoff and went 3-2 in MLB last night Best in the biz, Joe Duffy has NBA side Wednesday.  It is the strongest day of the season for our rage-of-the-industry baseball totals system. Eight MLB winners caps off a sensational day.  Get the picks now


NY YANKEES (TANAKA -105) Arizona (Kelly) at Bovada

Road teams on a nice series run under specific circumstances that apply today +86.04 units for a solid 5.4 ROI.

NBA sharp money today and all future games: Toronto

Baseball sharp money: Miami, Pittsburgh

  • Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts will be rested today

Top sports service bets

Daily Sports Gambling Update: MLB and NBA

Even before the new season begins, we generally have an idea of which teams in the MLB are going to be leading the way on the path to the playoffs. While the favorites have made a habit of blazing the trail ahead, we always see a couple of teams come out of nowhere and make a run that is more than a little unexpected. While those runs may not translate to success in the postseason, it is always cool to see a dark horse emerge from the pack and make things very interesting. For the full article: Padres vs Braves MLB Week 5 Betting Lines & Expert Pick

Whenever you see a good team get off to a slow start, the general feeling is that it’s probably going to be nothing more than a minor blip that no-one will remember at the end of the season. The longer that poor start continues, though, the more difficult it becomes to imagine that good team finding a way out of the hole that they have dug for themselves. Read the full article: Athletics vs Red Sox MLB Odds & Prediction for Monday Night

The Seattle Mariners will look to take care of business at home to tame the red-hot Chicago Cubs when they host their NL counterparts in the opener of a two-game Inter-League set on Tuesday. Now, let’s find out whether the M’s are the pick to hold it down at home or whether Chicago is a better pick despite being on the road. The rest of the article here: Cubs vs Mariners MLB Betting Odds, Preview & Predictions

After bouncing back from their humbling sweep over the weekend by beating the rival Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 on Monday, the San Francisco Giants will look to put on a repeat performance when they host L.A. in Game 2 of their three-game series on Tuesday. Now, let’s find out if Frisco is the pick in this one or whether the Dodgers are looking good despite being on the road. The full article: LA Dodgers vs SF Giants MLB Lines, Expert Analysis & Pick 

The New York Yankees will look to extend their winning ways when they hit the road to take on an Arizona Diamondbacks team that will be looking to snap its modest losing streak when the two teams square off in the opener of a two-game Inter-league set on Tuesday night. Now, let’s find out which one of these teams is offering the best value in this matchup. Read the rest of the article: Yankees vs Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Game Preview & Pick

The Houston Rockets take on the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinal series on Tuesday, April 30. Will the Warriors go up 2 games to 0? Or, will the Rockets manage a victory in Oracle Arena? Check out NBA Playoffs betting odds, analysis, and free pick for Warriors-Rockets Game 2! For the full article: Warriors vs Rockets NBA Playoffs Game 2 Odds, Preview & Prediction

After a tough Game 1, the Portland Trail Blazers look to even their Western Conference Semifinal series with the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, April 30. Will the Nuggets go up 2-0? Or, will Portland head home for Game 3 with the series tied? See below for NBA Playoffs betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Nuggets-Trail Blazers Game 2! The rest of the article: Nuggets vs Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Game 2 Odds, Preview & Prediction

The Eastern Conference top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks looked dominant in their first-round sweep of the Detroit Pistons. However, they got a major wake-up call in a Game 1 semifinal loss to the Boston Celtics. The Bucks are favored on the NBA betting lines to even things up Tuesday night. Read the full article: Celtics vs Bucks 2019 NBA Playoffs Odds & Game 2 Prediction


MLB Free Handicapping Pick

JDP has three NBA winners led by a Wise Guy. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are in near unanimity considered the strongest bet in sports wagering by bookmakers, pro gamblers, oddsmakers, and fellow handicappers alike.  

Get five world-famous MLB totals and a side. That’s nine winners in all. Our totals angles are based on the same basic and proven concept that can be adjusted for all sports, especially pro.  Get the picks now

Free winning pick for April 30 in MLB is on:

BOSTON (PORCELLO -1.5 +115) Oakland (Brooks)

Bad favorites off a win, both runline and moneyline is +147.03 on moneyline. Ice cold pitchers bounce back as big favorites at +122.53, but in both cases the ROI is better on the runline. Thus, we will bet -1.5. When both apply in the same game, the ROI is a stunning +37.4!

NBA sharp action including games not played today: Milwaukee, Portland, Denver UNDER

MLB sharp action for Tuesday: Cleveland

Top betting picks today

Tuesday Sports Betting News and Notes

Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from
the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he
faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0
lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.


Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late,
sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie
Vincent, one of the OffshoreInsiders.com
top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers. Texas
has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.


The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper
Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or
less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.


enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight


southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP
dictates. Fresh off the DL, he takes on
the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly,
Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in


Florida is
ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer
John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18
innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the
Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is
1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their
previous 10 games.


Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago. Over his last two starts he’s given up three
runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their
last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.


Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to OffshoreInsiders.com

MLB Handicapping: Back To Basics

We are often asked what our best sport is in handicapping. At OffshoreInsiders.com we’ve gotten to the point where we are at the top of the list in every sport, so it’s difficult to single one out. However there is no question that our mastery of baseball in the early 1990s is what vaulted me to the point where professional sports handicapping would be my lifelong profession.

Yet, to be perfectly frank, while continuing to improve upon our results in other sports, over the last year and a half, I returned to the pack in baseball.  It was time for some serious introspection. Fortuitously, going back to my handwritten spiral notebook scorephone days, I saved my picks, 
analysis, and results from decades past.

Was I doing something different all of a sudden? After a few hours of soul searching, it became obvious I slowly but surely abandoned some of the basics that got me to the pinnacle in the first place.

In some respects, I became a victim of my own success betting picks winners. In 2005, I had probably my best year winning what we call “Dandy Dogs”. Dandy Dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more
(includes runline plays getting back 140 or more).

The downside was it led me to develop a bias against even small favorites. I’ve known and preached for years the basics of risk/reward ratio. For example, a 150 favorite needed to have a 60 percent chance of winning to be a break even bet or based on our threshold had to have 70
percent chance of winning to be a premium play. Yet there were nights I’d go 3-4 and still win money because of betting all dogs. Bit by bit, I developed personal chalk reluctance in betting.

Too many well-handicapped favorites of more than 120 became passes for me simply because of my increasing acute prejudice against laying the juice. Since returning to my roots, the 120-160 favorites have been a major reason behind my return to MLB handicapping prominence.

But even with picking
our baseball underdogs, we became victims of the successes we had in other sports. We take great pride in being ahead of the curve with modern technology. The Internet made every team the “local team” from a handicapping standpoint because once regional information is now so easily accessible.

The World Wide Web has been a boon to us in preseason NFL with accurate key player rotation and motivation info. In college football and basketball it has revolutionized the way sharp players bet.

While super systems have been a great addition in all sports including baseball, our self scrutiny brought to light that we were allowing the Billy Beane
and Bill James inspired new fangled stats to convince us out of winning picks.

In our first two decades of handicapping, we have had significant success with big underdogs by riding either hot but non-elite pitchers and/or fading struggling star pitchers. Yet information overload had us finding a fly ball/ground ball ratio or walks/strikeout percentage that talked us out of the same kind of plays that for decades won for us.

Let there be no doubt whatsoever that ERA and WHIP are still the two most important statistics in foretelling future results of pitchers. Likewise in handicapping offense we have streamlined with great success. Just like for 20 plus years, we returned to utilizing on base percentage and slugging percentage foremost.

We never stop fine-tuning our techniques but our introspection reminds us sometimes we need to remember “if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”. Since returning to our roots in baseball handicapping, not so coincidently we have returned to the results our clients and we desire.

With all other sports, utilizing the Internet and cutting edge computer software is imperative to staying ahead of the curve, but MLB is the clear exception. Baseball handicapping is much like playing the game: master the basic fundamentals.

Are Parlays Good Bets? No, Plus More Sports Gambling Info

We are presenting the latest in a series of a series of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Parlays are Par to Lay Off

We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout.” First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.

But to answer the oft-asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of OffshoreInsiders.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”

This is even truer in baseball, whereby design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet again widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.

We believe there are actual “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self-control and little delusions.

Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often but do so to have a good time first and foremost.  Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.

It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him, that is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.

We see no other use for parlays.  

No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers

Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the most significant gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually every sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.

He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records,  yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore, they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI.”

Stevie Vincent believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports.  “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”  

Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of OffshoreInsiders.com, agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well-marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”

The World Keeps Getting Smaller

We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge.  That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.

As we’ve said, Internet radio is precious in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few.  Finally, the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online.

A real sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices.  No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game-time decision.”

The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.  

The number of sources for real-time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.

Joe Duffy’s premium selections are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Also get his exclusive daily news and notes, free sports service picks, approved sportsbooks, and more at www.joeduffy.net.