Tag Archives: free sports pick

Daily Sports Gambling Update: Baseball, Basketball, and Football

The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves battle it out at SunTrust Park in Smyrna, GA on Thursday afternoon. Atlanta is the favorite on the moneyline. Will the Braves reward their backers? Check out MLB betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Padres vs Braves! For the full article: Padres vs Braves Week 5 Odds, Preview, and Pick

The various TV networks (ESPN & TNT) have messed a bit with the NBA playoff schedule this week. Thus, there’s just one game on slate Thursday and it’s from the Eastern Conference as the second-seeded Toronto Raptors visit the No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers, who opened a very slight underdog on the NBA odds. Read the full article: Raptors vs 76ers 2019 NBA Playoffs Odds & Game 3 Prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies on Thursday, May 2 as a slight favorite. Both Colorado and Milwaukee are contenders to win their divisions this season. Will the Brewers win at home or will the Rockies pull off the upset? Keep reading for MLB betting odds, analysis, and a free pick! The full article here: Rockies vs Brewers MLB Lines, Betting Analysis & Prediction

MMA bettors have two events to choose from on Saturday. There’s a UFC Fight Night card from Canada and Bellator Birmingham, which features a lightweight bout between former champion Brent Primus and Tim Wilde. Here’s a look at the main Bellator fights. Check back for Bellator odds. Read the rest of the article: Bellator Birmingham Odds, Preview & Expert Predictions

Two division leaders throw down in the early afternoon on Thursday when the Houston Astros battle the Minnesota Twins on the road. Houston leads in the AL West while Minnesota leads in the AL Central. Who takes this intriguing matchup on May 2? Check out our MLB lines, analysis, and a free pick for Astros-Twins! Read the full article: How to Bet on Astros vs Twins MLB Odds & Game Preview

For the second time in UFC history, the organization will hold a card in the Canadian capital city of Ottawa. Saturday’s Fight Night event is headlined by a lightweight non-title fight between Al Iaquinta and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, with the former a slight favorite on the latest UFC odds. The full article: UFC Fight Night 150 Odds, Preview & Expert Picks

MyBookie’s props are ahead of the game once again, as a full slate of NFL rookie props are now available under their “NFL Specials” section. Because I was curious and I like to compare odds between sites, I searched the internet trying to find similar props, but was unable to find anything related to or close to the props listed on MyBookie’s site. Read the full article: 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year Props

Basketball Free Handicapping Pick

We win again last night. I am 32-22 in the NBA playoff and went 3-2 in MLB last night Best in the biz, Joe Duffy has NBA side Wednesday.  It is the strongest day of the season for our rage-of-the-industry baseball totals system. Eight MLB winners caps off a sensational day.  Get the picks now

MLB

NY YANKEES (TANAKA -105) Arizona (Kelly) at Bovada

Road teams on a nice series run under specific circumstances that apply today +86.04 units for a solid 5.4 ROI.

NBA sharp money today and all future games: Toronto

Baseball sharp money: Miami, Pittsburgh

  • Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts will be rested today

Top sports service bets

Daily Sports Gambling Update: Kentucky Derby, Football, Baseball, Soccer

Arizona tried to fake out the rest of the NFL by saying they weren’t 100% sure on Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Kyler Murray. Yeah, right. The Cardinals pulled the trigger on Murry like it was nothing. They were so excited about drafting Murray that they didn’t even care that Josh Rosen, their number one pick from last season, is still on their team. For the rest of the article NFL Draft Preview

Despite losing key players like TE Rob Gronkowski and DE Trey Flowers, the NFL reigning champions New England Patriots are favorites to win the AFC again in 2019. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be back, that is pretty much all you need to know to understand why. For the rest of the article: New England Patriots 2019 NFL Season Preview

The NBA’s first round of the 2019 playoffs has frankly been boring. The only series that has a chance to go to a Game 7 is NuggetsSpurs, with San Antonio a short home NBA Betting favorite on Thursday to indeed force a Game 7 back in Denver on Saturday. For the rest of the article: Nuggets vs Spurs 2019 NBA Playoffs Betting Lines & Pick for Game 6

If the Philadelphia 76ers have any realistic hopes of winning their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Toronto Raptors, they have to win Game 2 in Toronto on Monday night. However, the Raptors are solidly favored on the NBA betting lines to take a 2-0 lead. For the full article: 76ers vs Raptors 2019 NBA Playoffs Odds & Pick for Game 2

The Western Conference semifinal series between the St. Louis Blues and Dallas Stars shifts to Big D on Monday night for Game 3 and it tied 1-1. The Stars are home favorites on the NHL betting lines to take a 2-1 lead. Full article here: Blues vs Stars 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Lines & Game 3 Prediction

Tottenham hosts Ajax on Tuesday in Leg 1 of their UEFA Champions Leg Semifinal versus the top team in the Dutch Eredivisie, Ajax Amsterdam. The Hotspur knows they must step it up in the first leg because in the second leg they take on Ajax in Amsterdam. Will Tottenham get the win? Or, will Ajax pull off the upset? Check out UEFA Champions League odds and predictions for Leg 1 between Tottenham and Ajax! Full article: Tottenham vs Ajax UEFA Champions League Game 1 Odds, Preview, and Predictions

Two of the best soccer clubs on planet Earth battle it out at Camp Nou on Wednesday when Messi leads Barcelona against Salah and Liverpool. Barcelona should win La Liga while Liverpool has a great chance of winning the Premier League. Who takes the first leg of this UEFA Champions League Semifinal clash? Check out UEFA Champions League betting odds, a preview, and predictions for Barcelona-Liverpool. The rest of the article at: Barcelona vs Liverpool UEFA Champions League Game 1 Odds, Preview, and Predictions

The 145th Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4. Already, horseplayers are looking at past performances, circling the names of potential key horses, and figuring out their Derby wagers. Check out our 2019 Kentucky Derby odds and a preview of the Run for the Roses! Full article at 2019 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds, TV Schedule, Entry List & Preview

The Kentucky Derby is America’s most famous horse race. Because it’s America’s most famous horse race, not only can players wager on Derby win futures and the race itself, but they can also wager on several props. Check out our 2019 Kentucky Derby props as well as information on some of the most popular Run for the Roses prop wagers. Full article here: 2019 Kentucky Derby Props

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is on May 4. Because the Derby allows for 20 entrants, it helps to break down our handicapping into favorites and dark horses and longshots. Check out a run down of the favorites, horses offering Kentucky Derby odds less than +2000, to win the Run for the Roses! Full article: 2019 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorites

The 2019 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4. As is almost always the case, 20 horses will enter the starting gate. Because so many three-year-olds run for Derby glory, it helps to handicap favorites and then handicap dark horses and longshots. Check out Kentucky Derby betting odds for dark horses and longshots to win on the first Saturday in May! Full article at: 2019 Kentucky Derby Dark Horses and Longshots

Can the Tampa Bay Rays keep up the impressive play that has them sitting at the top of the AL East right now? Can the Pittsburgh Pirates get a win this coming week to snap out of their ugly funk? Will Cody Bellinger blast a few more long balls before the end of the month to extend his record-setting April? Full Article: Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – April 29th

It’s going down on Tuesday when Tottenham hosts Ajax in one of two UEFA Champions League semifinals showdowns that will be taking place over the next three days and two of the worst teams in Major League soccer square off on Friday night. Full article: Top Soccer Betting Picks of the Week – April 29th

Okay eSports betting buffs, with the start of a new week at hand, it’s time for another round of value-packed eSports picks of the Week. After a solid 2-1 week on three Stage 2, Week 4 Overwatch matchups last weekend, I’m coming back to the wildly popular game this week for another trio of picks that I believe are all offering a ton of value. Now, let’s find out who’s in action for Overwatch betting. Read the full article: Top eSports Betting Picks of the Week – April 29th

 

Free Sports Pick from Top Handicapper

Stevie Vincent has 10 free days TODAY ONLY with purchase of monthly pick pack. Yes one month=41 days today. The Great One, Stevie Vincent keeps the streak alive with pro basketball OU and pro baseball side. Both are Level 5 bombs.  Get the picks now

Free NBA pick

PORTLAND +4 Denver at Bovada

Much more rested team in the postseason under specific circumstances that apply today is 25-13.

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College Basketball Predictions For Today ATS TCU vs. Kansas State

Same old song: despite another one-point loss, we win again at Joe Duffy’s Picks. It’s 13-8 over the weekend and six NBA led by Wise Guy up for Monday. Let’s just say one of the stats on the Wise Guy will make your balls spin (if you are a male).  Get the picks now

Today’s free winning pick: 

KANSAS STATE -1.5 Texas Christian at MYBookie

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1722-1384-79.

Key injuries

  • Milwaukee’s Malcolm Brogdon missed last game, but is probable tonight
    • 16.1 points per game, 4.7 boards, 3.3 assists
  • Bucks Eric Bledsoe expected back after missing last game
    • 16.8 points per game, 5.7 rebounds, 5.5 dimes
  • Pelicans Anthony Davis game-time decision
    • 27.3 points per game, 12.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists

 

Free National TV Winning Pick ATS Syracuse-North Carolina Odds, Spread Winner

Tuesday, Joe Duffy’s Picks has six winners in college and the NBA. I will continue to win more than anyone else because I will continue to work much harder than any bookmaker, oddsmaker, and indeed any sports service.  Get the picks now

Free:

SYRACUSE +11 North Carolina

Underdogs in a stretch of low-scoring games are a right place at 574-463-20 including 515-397-17 when not at home. Syracuse’s famed 2-3 zone defense will limit UNC’s ability to get high percentage shots, something they have thrived on all year. Syracuse is built to slow down the Heels fast break just enough to keep it close.

Bovada has a welcome bonus right now of $250 plus live dealers in blackjack.

 

Sharp Bets, Free Sports Handicapper Pick, Pros vs. Joes, Contrarian Bets, College Football Line Moves

College football super sharp intel. This is what bettors must know for Saturday. Here is contrarian betting intel, pros vs. Joes, pros vs. shmoes, biggest Vegas line moves, sharp bets, free pick from #1 handicapper, and more.

Top service pick: Joe Duffy’s picks is 61-28 in football and 768-606 overall! Saturday, it is 10 college football winners led by seven Wise Guys! Angles proven, most cross to other sports! Sorry, if you have not been making a fortune for the last 30 years, especially the last 14 months, don’t come bitching to me. Your financial fortune is in front of your damn eyes. Oh, three NBA added.  Get the picks now

NFL Game of the Week among eight winners for all those who have a pick pack that includes Sunday.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Texas A&M, Tulsa; Louisiana Tech OVER, Clemson OVER, Indiana OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Houston, Tulsa, Fresno State, Texas A&M, Colorado, Middle Tennessee State; WKU UNDER, Akron UNDER, Texas State UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Georgia State, North Texas, California, Kansas; Pittsburgh UNDER, Stanford UNDER, SMU UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: UNLV from -3.5 to +3, Fresno State -21.5 to -25.5, Arkansas -2.5 to +1, Michigan State -2.5 to +1.

MTSU-Old Dominion

Wind gusts up to 17 mph, light rain

UMass-UConn

Wind 15 mph, rain, temps near 40

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks and his magical computer database!

Wake Forest-Louisville OVER 67

When key offensive and defensive numbers imply total should be lower, use oddsmakers knowledge against them as it goes over 881-683.

Alert! Alert! Alert! MyBookie is now a 100% bonus up to $1000. Yes, hurry for a limited time! Deposit $1,000 and have $2,000 to bet now at MyBookie!

Sports Handicapping Experts Say Top Betting Weekend Yet is Forthcoming

This weekend has the makings of the biggest one of the
year in sports gambling. It’s a rare example of the marquee game that is also
one to exploit the sportsbooks

Tom Brady, Randy Moss and his undefeated New England
Patriots travel to Irving, Texas
and take on the Dallas Cowboys. Not surprisingly, Cowboys Terrell Owens has
cast the first of what could be many stones, claiming he is the “original No.
81”.

Currently BetUs
Sportsbook
has New England as a 5.5 point favorite
with a total of 53.5.

The big story on the Cowboys-Patriots clash is the Dream
Team at GodsTips has their Inter-conference
Game of the Year on this contest. Last week, they nailed Washington
over Detroit as the NFC Game of the
Year.

A 3.5 point online sportsbook favorite, Washington
won 34-3. GodsTips has also built up a great reputation picking moneyline
winners outright and three dog moneyline winners go Saturday in college
football as does the Big 10 Game of the Year. Elite gamblers can get the
GodsTips four-day pass for just $55 Click now to
purchase

Meanwhile, mastering
over/under
plays is high on the list of why forensic
handicapping
founder Stevie Vincent has replaced Dr. Bob and Phil Steele’s
Preferred Picks as the top choice among betting syndicates. Stanford and TCU is his Non-Conference over/under bet of the Quarter
Century. Stevie’s plays can be had for four-days at
just $125.

Gamblers can fellow their radio and purchase Jonathan
Stone’s stone cold locks, Wayne Allan Root’s winning edge, Tony Smith the
alleged Vegas legend or some guy named Bobby Ventura, who we’ve been told does
a hard boiler room sell.

They can listen to boob tube and get Scott Sprietzer, Jim Feist or Dave Cokin.
But those who want to listen to sharp players and their own wallet will choose
only the elite handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

The top sports handicapper site in America
is OffshoreInsiders.com and
features Mike Godsey and sports
betting expert
Joe Duffy of GodsTips, Stevie Vincent and MasterLockLine.com, which has all the top
sports service plays from all the top handicappers in their highest rated
sports.


Are Parlays Good Bets? No, Plus More Sports Gambling Info

We are presenting the latest in a series of a series of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Parlays are Par to Lay Off

We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout.” First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.

But to answer the oft-asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of OffshoreInsiders.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”

This is even truer in baseball, whereby design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet again widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.

We believe there are actual “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self-control and little delusions.

Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often but do so to have a good time first and foremost.  Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.

It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him, that is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.

We see no other use for parlays.  

No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers

Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the most significant gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually every sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.

He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records,  yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore, they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI.”

Stevie Vincent believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports.  “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”  

Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of OffshoreInsiders.com, agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well-marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”

The World Keeps Getting Smaller

We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge.  That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.

As we’ve said, Internet radio is precious in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few.  Finally, the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online.

A real sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices.  No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game-time decision.”

The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.  

The number of sources for real-time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.

Joe Duffy’s premium selections are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Also get his exclusive daily news and notes, free sports service picks, approved sportsbooks, and more at www.joeduffy.net.

 

 

Sharp vs. Square Betting, WHIP, NHL Betting Myths

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.  

Sharp versus Square FAQ

As clients know, we have had enormous success with sharp versus square plays. That means most of the sharp players are going one way and most of the sucker players the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and “outlaw” contacts.  We go with the sharp money.  Our article “Sharp Players Don’t Disappear, They Just Fade Away” explains why such data truly works. 

It was a question from a loyal client who made us aware we were a bit fallible when we said “money” rather than “players”. Sharp players are almost always high rollers, but they are greatly outnumbered by the square investor, who covers a wide profile ranging from a $5 player to the $5,000 a game degenerate.

It’s “one man, one vote” as far as we are concerned.  Contrarian information from a $10 four-team parlay player can be as valuable as, and in most cases arguably more valuable than that from a dime player.  Also parlay selections are tabulated the same way individual plays would be.

As enlightened above, parlay players are a contrarian kingpin’s best friend. 

Can’t Claim Any Myths in the NHL

We’ve made a lot of money over the years exposing myths in sports betting.  Many of the false convictions, as we point out, are examples of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.  However in the NHL playoffs, a hot goalie and quality special teams are the big X-factor.  The difference between the two elements is that overall not recent performance would be most important when handicapping power play and penalty killing.  But the common idea it true, nothing is better than a netminder who enters the postseason “in the zone.”

WHIP it Real Good Baseball Handicapper

We had written an article that many of you raved about as being enlightening on ERA versus WHIP in baseball handicapping. Add one of the sharpest minds in sports handicapping history, Stevie
Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com to list of sharp players who believe WHIP is the most underutilized tool in handicapping.

Vincent, a veteran actually uses walks/hits per game as his official stat.  It’s the same statistic just calculated over a full game rather than by inning. Vincent was using it before WHIP became chic by the roto geeks. Hence the slight difference which is nothing more than semantics. 

Vincent in fact believes “picking baseball totals is now the easiest way to win in any type of gambling: horses, craps, poker, blackjack, you name it.” Vincent weighs walks/hits per game first with each starter, using last three starts, last seven starts, year to date both overall and home/away, and then he utilizes each starter’s career stats in the game day ballpark.  Like us, he prefers bestowing a pitcher’s cumulative batting average against to the opposing team’s current players much more than the more widely used pitcher’s career stats against that team.

“That way if an AL pitcher came from the NL and faced Gary Sheffield when he played for the Braves, Dodgers, Florida, San Diego and Milwaukee, those stats are factored in.”  As Vincent points out, when lesser handicappers would instead simply use a pitcher’s career stats against the Yankees, it may take into consideration players who are no longer on the Bronx Bombers.

He acknowledges that can be the case when he uses ballpark stats, but as he points out “that’s what I want to measure, if a certain park caters to a pitcher’s strengths or exploits his weaknesses.”

Vincent says otherwise the ballpark stats would in many ways simply overlap with a pitcher’s lifetime stats against an opponent. “Gamblers’ double jeopardy” he calls it. Vincent than says that bullpen must be considered, but reading the boxscore from the night before is mandatory in knowing the availability of relief pitchers for the next day. 

Joe Duffy’s premium plays are available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com. Get his exclusive news and notes from his own clipboard at JoeDuffy.Net home of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown of top sports service plays.