Tag Archives: nfl betting

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NFL and CFB Free Picks For Weekend

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Joe Duffy has 11 football winners up for the weekend including Thursday Night College Football Total of the Year, CBS SportsNetwork Bet of the Year, NFL Interconference Total of Year.As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. Get at OffshoreInsiders.com  

49ers (-9.5, 43) at Cardinals 

  • Favorites dominate short weeks at 102-54 (49ers)
  • Short week momentum angle is 34-14-2 (49ers)
  • Go with much worse ats team is 292-208-8 (Arizona)
  • Less rested defense in terms of plays during season is 146-105-3 (Arizona)
  • 83 percent of bets, 90 percent of money on Niners
  • Murray sacked 26 times, third most in league
    • Niners 4th in NFL with 27
  • Big dogs in low-scoring games 58.2 percent

The pick: SAN FRANCISCO -9.5

Texans (-1.5, 46.5) at Jags 

  • London calling
  • Jacksonville thinned at WR with Marquise Lee and Dede Westbrook both questionable 
    • Lee No. 1 option when healthy, Westbrook 32 receptions for 383 yards
  • Jags QB Gardner Minshew one of last 2 chances to win starting job
  • Jags won both games since trading Jalen Ramsey 
    • Point of diminishing return
  • Texans JJ Watt out for year, first game without him
  • However Texans LT Laremy Tunsill expected back after leaving last week’s game

HOUSTON -1.5

Redskins at Bills (-9.5, 37)

  • Teams hitting the road off horrific back-to-back offensive efforts are 25-5-1 (Washington)
  • Betting on ice-cold teams 164-108-2 (Washington)
    • Despite being 83-191 SU
      • 30 percent SU, 60 percent ats
  • Bills 3-0 SU road, 2-2 home but laying -10 home despite road team 5-2 SU in their games
    • Big home favorites despite splits saying they are better road is 99-67-3
  • Haskins or Keenum for Washington 
    • Keenum if healthy 
    • Keenum better short-term QB
  • Teams with winning percentage of .700 or above off LHF are 72-57-7 (Buffalo)

The pick: Buffalo -9.5

SMU at Memphis

  • Short away dogs is 649-483-30
    • Moved +3 to +5.5
  • Undefeated underdogs of 2.5 or more in game 6 or later is 128-95-6
  • Surprising offenses (SMU) based on delta points scored, go under 1065-894-48
  • SMU WR Reggie Roberson is questionable
    • 43 receptions for 803 yards and 6 TDs
  • Fact it’s primetime and at night will affect atmosphere and be big for memphis

The pick: SMU +5.5

Oregon at USC

  • Angle about fading a team off a win, but two straight horrible defenses efforts is 114-68-3 (USC)
    • Oregon allowed 66 points last two games
  • Since 1980 only 37 times has a team given up at least 62 points over their last two games combined, but still allow less than 16 ppg on the season. Said teams are 11-24-2 (favors USC)
  • USC has battled a ton of injuries 
  • Cornerback Chris Steele and defensive end Christian Rector are on track for a return to the field.
  • Freshman Kedon Slovas very talented for USC
    • Played well with game in line to Colorado leading to two fourth quarter touchdowns 
  • Top two sack teams 

The pick: USC +5

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Sports Betting News

Miami Dolphins Expert Season Preview From Grandmaster Handicapper

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The Miami Dolphins are a team encumbered in averageness. However, with a season win total of 4.5 to 5 with varying juice, a mediocre season is all they need to put the season total over at Bovada.  

A Pac-12 QB, drafted high, thrown to the wolves, and was baptized by fire in his rookie season. But enough about Jared Goff. The Miami Dolphins have made one of the significant overlooked QB upgrades in recent time. Good riddance to overrated stiff Ryan Tannehill and give a warm welcome to Josh Rosen, the breakout QB of 2019.

Conflicting rooting concerns are a nonstarter for me, so I abandoned fantasy sports decades ago. However, Rosen would be elevated on any intelligent projection of later round heists. The Arizona Cardinals castoff has a decent group of wideouts to heave to led by speedy Kenny Stills, a robust deep threat, plus Devante Parker. Yes, the latter is an underachiever. But with the foreseen enhancement at QB, this could be the season his production finally matches his ability. Albert Wilson is a solid talent bouncing back from injury.

I concur with the mania of electing coaches with offensive-oriented minds as the head man. But, my unapparelled achievements as a handicapper is in no small part to the fact I zig while everyone is zagging. Thus, I believe the counterintuitive procedure of hiring defensive coach Brian Flores to man the sidelines could shell out massive dividends.

Either way, the fact that former head coach’s Adam Gase’s falsely perceived genius was because Jay Cutler was less pitiful under his tutelage makes me to have faith change for the sake of change will at least bear fruit short-term. With offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea also coming from New England, the offense will get an abundance of emphasis, the hiring a DC as HC notwithstanding.

But how about that defense? Miami is reliable in the secondary with CB Xavien Howard, S Minkhah Fitzpatrick, and S TJ McDonald, who has 75 NFL starts on his resume. Christian Wilkens, a first-rounder DT, will have an immediate impact. Yes, there are holes on defense, especially with the departures of Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn. But with season-win totals ranging from 4.5-5 depending on the juice, they don’t have to be Monsters of the Midway to exceed the season wins total.

Season outlook: With the massive upgrade at QB sneaking under the radar and the short-term boost a new coach gives to a team playing below their potential, look for a .500 season or better.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as the top NFL handicapper in history.

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Daily Sports Gambling Update: Baseball, Basketball, and Football

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The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves battle it out at SunTrust Park in Smyrna, GA on Thursday afternoon. Atlanta is the favorite on the moneyline. Will the Braves reward their backers? Check out MLB betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Padres vs Braves! For the full article: Padres vs Braves Week 5 Odds, Preview, and Pick

The various TV networks (ESPN & TNT) have messed a bit with the NBA playoff schedule this week. Thus, there’s just one game on slate Thursday and it’s from the Eastern Conference as the second-seeded Toronto Raptors visit the No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers, who opened a very slight underdog on the NBA odds. Read the full article: Raptors vs 76ers 2019 NBA Playoffs Odds & Game 3 Prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies on Thursday, May 2 as a slight favorite. Both Colorado and Milwaukee are contenders to win their divisions this season. Will the Brewers win at home or will the Rockies pull off the upset? Keep reading for MLB betting odds, analysis, and a free pick! The full article here: Rockies vs Brewers MLB Lines, Betting Analysis & Prediction

MMA bettors have two events to choose from on Saturday. There’s a UFC Fight Night card from Canada and Bellator Birmingham, which features a lightweight bout between former champion Brent Primus and Tim Wilde. Here’s a look at the main Bellator fights. Check back for Bellator odds. Read the rest of the article: Bellator Birmingham Odds, Preview & Expert Predictions

Two division leaders throw down in the early afternoon on Thursday when the Houston Astros battle the Minnesota Twins on the road. Houston leads in the AL West while Minnesota leads in the AL Central. Who takes this intriguing matchup on May 2? Check out our MLB lines, analysis, and a free pick for Astros-Twins! Read the full article: How to Bet on Astros vs Twins MLB Odds & Game Preview

For the second time in UFC history, the organization will hold a card in the Canadian capital city of Ottawa. Saturday’s Fight Night event is headlined by a lightweight non-title fight between Al Iaquinta and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, with the former a slight favorite on the latest UFC odds. The full article: UFC Fight Night 150 Odds, Preview & Expert Picks

MyBookie’s props are ahead of the game once again, as a full slate of NFL rookie props are now available under their “NFL Specials” section. Because I was curious and I like to compare odds between sites, I searched the internet trying to find similar props, but was unable to find anything related to or close to the props listed on MyBookie’s site. Read the full article: 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year Props

Sports Betting News

Saints vs. Cowboys Thursday Night Football Betting Sharp Intel

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The New Orleans Saints take on the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Dallas is laying -7 to -7.5 with varying juice and the total is 51.5 to 52. The game opened New Orleans -7.5 and 54.5. Thus far, 72 percent of bets and 62 percent of money is on New Orleans, not that high considering the public love of road favorites. Seventy-seven percent of bets and 70 percent of money is on the over at Bovada and other sportsbooks.

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has the Thursday Night Football total plus two college basketball sides. It is the biggest play on the game. Oh both college basketball games are night games. Get the picks now 

NBA sharp intel:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: LA Lakers

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Sacramento, Dallas

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Toronto

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

College basketball sharp intel:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Samford

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: none

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

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Colts-Redskins

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promo/euro

The National Football League gets back on the sporting schedule on Sunday
night, as the Indianapolis Colts meet the Washington Redskins in the annual
Hall of Fame Game as football betting
takes center stage.

However, Indy will be missing a future Hall of Famer
in the game at Fawcett Stadium, as starting QB Peyton Manning won’t be in
uniform. Also skipping the game for the Colts will be WR
Marvin Harrison, who isn’t quite ready to test out his knees. New ‘Skins head
coach Jim Zorn and his West Coast offense will make their debuts in this contest.

BetUs Sportsbook oddsmakers
like Washington’s chances of starting the preseason with a win, as they’ve been
pegged as 6-point favorites for Sunday. The game’s total is at 31.5 points.

The top football sports service
in the land GodsTips has both the side and total for the game plus baseball,
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On the diamond the Cubs and Brewers will both send stud pitchers to the
mound on Sunday. Carlos Zambrano (12-4, 2.80 ERA) will get the ball for Chicago
in their home game against Ian Snell (4-8, 6.04 ERA) and Pittsburgh.
Ben Sheets (10-4, 3.14 ERA) will be the starter for the Brewers against Atlanta
and Jorge Campillo (5-4, 2.76 ERA).

Other NL games on Sunday: Colorado at Florida, Cincinnati at Washington, the
Mets at Houston, San Francisco at San Diego, Arizona at the Dodgers, and
Philadelphia at St. Louis (with Brett Myers (4-9, 5.46 ERA) battling with Todd Wellemeyer (8-4, 4.13 ERA)).

Over in the American League Daisuke Matsuzaka (11-2, 3.04 ERA) will be
looking for his 12th win of the year when the Red Sox host Dallas
Braden (2-1, 4.39 ERA) and the Athletics. The Yankees will finish out their
series against the Angels and ace John Lackey (9-2, 2.93 ERA), while the Rays
will once again host the Tigers in Tampa
Bay.

Rounding out Sunday’s Junior Circuit slate are the White Sox at Kansas
City, Baltimore
at Seattle, Toronto
at Texas, and Cleveland
at Minnesota. Twins pitcher
Francisco Liriano is now back from the minor leagues,
and he’ll get the start on Sunday afternoon.

In the Sprint Cup Series, Jimmie Johnson will be looking to make it two wins
in a row on Sunday when he takes to the track at Pocono Raceway for this year’s
Pennsylvania 500.

Johnson took the checkered flag in the troubled Allstate 400 at the
Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway last weekend, keeping his tires from
exploding just long enough to grab the victory. That was Johnson’s second win
of this Sprint Cup season.

Kurt Busch won the Pennsylvania
500 last year, while Kasey Kahne
visited victory lane in the Pocono 500 on this track back in June. Jeff Gordon
took the checkered flag in the Pocono 500 last year, and he has four career Cup
victories on the Pennsylvania track.

Meanwhile, overseas, Lewis Hamilton is back on top of the drivers
championship as the Formula One series hits the track in Budapest
for the Hungarian Grand Prix on Sunday.

Hamilton picked up his second
straight victory last time out, beating Nelsinho
Piquet across the finish line to take the checkered flag in the German Grand
Prix. The win pushed Hamilton four
points ahead of Felipe Massa in the current F1 driver
standings.

Hamilton won the Hungarian Grand
Prix in 2007, holding off Kimi Raikkonen
and Nick Heidfeld for the victory. Fernando Alonso,
Robert Kubica, Ralf Schumacher, Nico
Rosberg, and Heikki Kovalainen rounded out the Top 8 finishers in Budapest
last year.


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Beating NFL Odds

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Before burying the recently concluded NFL season, savvy
gamblers will want to sift through those decaying bones to determine if the
gridiron carcass left any clues that could be used to uncover a successful NFL
betting strategy when the 2008 campaign kicks off in September.

One angle that has clicked for several straight years again took the blue
ribbon in 2007: If you want to be an NFL betting winner, bet a winner. Simply,
teams that were straight up (SU) winners on the field also were highly
successful at the windows, against the spread (ATS).

In fact, of the 13 teams that posted regular season winning records, 12 of them
also had winning marks against the spread. The 13th team, the
Washington Redskins, was .500 ATS, meaning that no team with a straight up
winning record had a losing record against the spread. The overall pointspread
log for these 13 teams was 126-77-5, a
62.0 win percentage, a figure for which any NFL betting enthusiast would sell
his throwback jersey.

Yes, hindsight always is 20/20 but was it so difficult to predict that teams
such as the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Seahawks and Cowboys would have straight
up winning records? Some shrewd bettors even allowed the oddsmakers and
bookmakers to do their homework for them, relying on regular season over/under
win total propositions as the basis for their wagers. The above-mentioned teams
all had totals of 10 victories or more entering last season.

On the other cleat, of the 15 teams that had straight up losing records, only
one, the Buffalo Bills, had a winning mark against the spread. Maybe it was the
snow that was the great pointspread equalizer in Buffalo.

Those 15 teams were 92-141-7 against the spread, a cover percentage of .394,
meaning that those who wisely bet against those teams collected on more than 60
percent of their wagers.

Predictably enough, the four teams that finished with straight up .500 records
also were right around that mark against the spread.

NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU WINNING RECORDS

Team

SU

ATS

New England Patriots

16-0

10-6

Green Bay
Packers

13-3

12-3-1

Indianapolis
Colts

13-3

9-7

Dallas Cowboys

13-3

9-7

Jacksonville
Jaguars

11-5

11-5

San Diego
Chargers

11-5

11-5

Cleveland
Browns

10-6

12-4

New York
Giants

10-6

10-6

Seattle
Seahawks

10-6

9-6-1

Pittsburgh
Steelers

10-6

9-7

Tennessee
Titans

10-6

8-7-1

Tampa Bay
Buccaneers

9-7

9-7

Washington
Redskins

9-7

7-7-2

Total (13 teams)

145-63

126-77-5

 

NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU LOSING RECORDS

Team

SU

ATS

Miami Dolphins

1-15

5-9-2

St. Louis Rams

3-13

5-11

Oakland
Raiders

4-12

6-10

New York
Jets

4-12

6-9-1

Atlanta
Falcons

4-12

7-8-1

Kansas City
Chiefs

4-12

7-8-1

Baltimore
Ravens

5-11

3-13

San Francisco
49ers

5-11

5-11

New Orleans
Saints

7-9

6-10

Cincinnati

7-9

6-9-1

Detroit

7-9

6-9-1

Chicago

7-9

7-9

Carolina

7-9

8-8

Buffalo

7-9

10-6

Total (15 teams)

79-161

92-141-7

 

NFL TEAMS WITH REGULAR SEASON SU .500 RECORDS

Team

SU

ATS

Houston Texans

8-8

8-8

Philadelphia
Eagles

8-8

8-8

Minnesota
Vikings

8-8

7-7-2

Arizona
Cardinals

8-8

9-7

Total (4 teams)

32-32

32-30-2

So, when it comes to NFL betting, if you want to be a winner, bet a winner.

This article was written on behalf of OffshoreInsiders.com
by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com.

 


Sports Betting News

Week 8 Fantasy Football and NFL Betting Injury Information

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Week 8 NFL betting: now let’s take a look at late game NFL
injuries and key information for sports bettors, fantasy football gurus
and more. The early NFL injuries for online gamblers are here.

Bills-Jets

Despite it being an inter-state east coast battle, it is a
4:00 EST start or 1:00 for Las Vegas
sports bettors. Struggling New
York is a three-point favorite at most sportsbooks. The Jets are without
linebacker Jonathan “Stone” Vilma.

Texans-Chargers

Houston
quarterback Matt Schaub is considered probable to
questionable. San Diego starting
defensive tackle Jamal Williams is a game time decision. San
Diego will fight the distractions of being displaced
because of the California
wildfires. Houston should have the
services of running back Ahman Green.

The world’s top NFL betting service GodsTips.com has a season high four NFL
Wise Guy plays fresh of a monster 6-3 Saturday that included moneyline 280 dog winner Georgia and Iowa
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Jaguars-Buccaneers

Tampa varies
among sportsbooks as a 3.5 or
four-point favorites. Jacksonville’s
running back Maurice Jones-Drew is a game time decision. WFAN
radio’s Mike Francesca believes the Jaguars will be “as conservative as a team
can be today” because the Jags are without quarterback David Garrard. “It will
be a 10-6 type game” according to the talk show host. Garrard may miss four
weeks.

Saints-49ers

Darrell Jackson is doubtful. Running back Frank Gore is
now considered questionable after being listed as probable early in the week.

Redskins-Patriots

New England’s running back Sammy
Morris and tight end Ben Watson are questionable.

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Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Critical Betting and Gambling Notes, Secrets of the Pros, Handicapping Formulas

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It’s been awhile since we authored a volume in this series.

However more anticipated than a Harry Potter novel, the Tid-Bets return to take a look at various sports handicapping and betting issues.

How Do Handicappers Work Overtime? 

CBS announcer Gary Danielson accurately observed how college football overtimes can greatly distort statistics. From a handicapping standpoint, this is certainly true for those who use deceptive rankings or points per game statistics. Luckily sharp bettors do not or they are weighted very lightly.

The main statistics that we use: yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense compared to the cumulative average of their opponents are not debased by overtime play. The same is true for ace football handicapper Joe Duffy who utilizes net yard advantage/disadvantage cumulative statistics.

We’ve explained in previous articles why straight up wins and losses, point margin, and offensive and defensive rankings are the most popular choices of square players planning their own sportsbook death sentence.

“If a team wins by eight points in four overtimes, it looks the same as an eight-point win in regulation,” says Mike Godsey, referring to those who use the above fatal stats.

https://youtu.be/qa6H7tcWGeM

“But if the losing team is stopped on the three-yard line trying to tie the game, it is very much accounted for in our statistics,” brags Godsey.

Godsey adds that while as a fan he despises the fact that teams start 25 yards from pay dirt; it is built-in insurance that the more reliable numbers don’t get too distorted in overtime.

Will the Pitching and Defense Cliché Ever Die?

In 2007, no surprise, seven of the top eight offenses based on a team’s on base percentage made the playoffs. Two of the three teamsthat finished with 70 wins or less, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, ranked in the top five in defense, ahead of six of the eight playoff teams. And six of the top 10 pitching teams missed the playoffs.

This is on the heels of St. Louis winning the World Series with Chris Carpenter and a cast of rejects on their pitching staff. Their closer was a converted rookie starting pitcher. The year before the White Sox had a good starting pitching staff and an abysmal bullpen. In recent years, Arizona won with Johnson and Schilling and the rest of the staff worth killing.

The Toronto Blue Jays this most recent campaign had the best pitching staff in MLB with A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. All they did was finish 13 games out of first place.

This year the Colorado Rockies enter the World Series having won an historic 21-of-22 games. The ace of their staff is Jeff Francis, a very solid pitcher indeed. Problem is, he’d be the No. 3 starter on the Atlanta Braves, a team that the media said failed to make the playoffs because of lack of pitching. But not to worry, rounding out the Rockies pitching staff is Ubadlo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Combined, they have seven career wins under their belt. Yes, combined they have seven more wins at the Major League level than I do.

Pitching and defense wins in the media, but the teams with the best clutch hitting are the squads that professional gamblers laugh with
all the way to the bank.

ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for Proposition Bettors

Over the last several years, online gamblers have been able to bet on the production of individual players in their respective sports. An elite gambler in fantasy football betting is Mike Snow of BettorsAdvice.com.

He says there is no better starting point than the ESPN fantasy football projections. “We of course make adjustments for injuries, but contrasting the player proposition odds to the ESPN simulations has proven to be great foundation in fantasy NFL betting.”

Lower betting limits make it more challenging for sharp players to clean house on the sportsbooks, but Snow says some of the highest return on investments have been in betting NFL player propositions.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are the best in the industry! He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

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Sports Betting News

MNF Betting Preview

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The NY Giants take on the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night
Football. Sportsbooks have The
Giants a 4.5 point favorite (as much as five at NewBodog) with a
total of 43.5 to 44.

After an 0-2 straight up and ATS
start, the Giants have won and covered three straight with each of the wins by
a touchdown or more. Meanwhile, Atlanta
is 1-4 SU and all four losses are by six or more.

The Giants are giving up just 4.1 yards per play during
their winning streak. For the year, they allow 5.3 yards per play against teams
normally allowing 5.6. They have been their best against the run allowing 3.6
yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.1.

Actually, the Giants are getting only 4.9 yards per play
during their three game winning streak. This compares
to 5.5 yards per play for the year against teams normally allowing 5.2.

New York offensively
averages a sensational 4.4 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 3.8. Atlanta’s
defense has been respectable allowing 20 points per game to teams normally
getting 20.3 and 5.5 yards per play to teams normally getting 5.5.

Amazingly the road team has won 11 straight outright in
this series, covering the last six. Atlanta
is ravaged by injuries on their offensive line minus both tackles Wayne Gandy
and Todd Weiner. Starting in their place is an undrafted
rookie Renardo Foster and an unproven second year
player Tyson Clabo.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning has won seven straight
October games.

Sports betting trends say that Atlanta
has gone over 15-4 since 1992 to teams with a winning percentage in the .500s. Atlanta
is 15-35 against the spread since 1992 to teams averaging 24 or more points per
game. New York is 32-8 in the
back pocket after getting more than 150 yards rushing last game.

Joey Harrington will start at QB for the Falcons, but he
and is 24-48 career record could be on a short leash as recently signed Byron
Leftwich has had several weeks to learn the offense.

Atlanta can
find solace in knowing the Giants have struggled against receiving tight ends
and they have one of the best in Alge Crumpler.