Monday Night Football will have fantasy football and
betting experts alike watching the Green Bay Packers take on the Denver
The top all-time NFL handicapper Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com says that one of the keys to
finding overvalued versus undervalued teams is comparing straight up records
and points per game stats to the “real stats that handicappers use”, teams net
There is not a huge edge there as Green
Bay is 5-2 straight up, but 4-2 in winning net yards
margin. Denver is 3-3 straight up
and 2-4 with the “net yardage margin” win-loss record. However, they have been
beaten statistically in four straight games.
On offense, Green Bay
is getting 5.5 yards per play against teams normally allowing 5.3. Denver
gets 4.7 yards per carry against teams normally allowing 4.3 and 7.5 yards per
pass against teams normally allowing 6.5. That’s a cumulative 6.2 to 5.5.
On defense, the Cheese Heads allow just 3.8 yards per rush
to teams normally getting 4.3. Their opponent, Denver
allows 5.1 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.4 and 7.2 yards per
pass against teams normally allowing 6.7. That’s 5.9 yards per play against
teams normally allowing 5.9.
Green Bay has
played only two road games, but won both averaging 29 points per game and
allowing just 14.5.
The Broncos have won two straight Monday night games at
Invesco Field, and 10 of their last 13 Monday home games. Brett Favre has lost
five straight on MNF.
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