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Clemson vs. Florida State With @JeffNadu Betting Preview, Free Pick

Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

It was one of the great rivalries in football, though not so much lately. Joe Duffy and Jeff Nadu preview FSU vs. Clemson on the latter’s popular Big Man on Campus show.

Clemson is a prohibitive favorite at MyBookie of -27.5 with a total of 60.5. The total varies, so shop around. This game debuted at -25.5 and 61. A clear split is among the bettors here. Fifty-one percent of tickets are on Clemson, but a slight majority of 52 percent of the cash is on the Noles. Sixty-five percent of bets and a stunning 97 percent of money is on the under.

Here, the experts break it down.


Appalachian State at Louisiana Lafayette Sports Betting Week 7 College Football

The debut of Wednesday night football for 2019 sees Appalachian State at Louisiana Lafayette. UL Lafayette is -1.5, with a total of 68.5 at Bet Now. It opened at -1 and 69.5. The public likes the tiny road underdogs with 54 percent of bets and 69 percent of the money on Appalachian State. Fifty-three percent of wagers and 58 percent of cash is on the under.

App State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, going over 3-1. Appalachian State is the top over team in the nation in terms of margin, exceeding the total by an average of 20.6 points per game, a full five points more than the No. 2 team Charlotte. App is averaging a stunning 47 points per game. However, teams averaging at least 47 points per game or more in game five or higher have gone under 194-157-6. Such organizations are only 239-281-12 ATS, including 98-136-3 road for just 41.9 percent.

UL Lafayette is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 in the back pocket, going over 4-1. ULL is third in the country in margin of cover with a 14.6 sweat barometer.

Appalachian State is sensational on offense getting 5.8 yards per rush teams regularly allowing 5.1, 8.4 yards per pass to units that permit an average of 7.1, and yards per play is 6.8 to 6.0. ULL’s best numbers are on offense with rushing yards per attempt being 7.4 relative to 5.9 for the cumulative average of their foes. Though below average passing, overall, they get 7.6 yards per play to squads generally permitting 7.0. They average a stunning 9.4 yards per play at home on 9.6 yards per rush and 9.1 passing yards per attempt.

Against the spread trends: Appalachian State 16-5 overall, but 1-5 in October. ULL is 13-3 overall but just 2-5 off a bye.

Over-under trends: The Rajin’ Cajuns have gone over 28-10-1 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous contest.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. The most excellent college football handicapper builds on a 7-2 college football run with another winner, the side on Appalachian State-Louisiana Lafayette. Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This portfolio includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. Get the picks now

Week 7 College Football Betting Picks

Week 7 college football betting free picks and inside information. Here is the news and notes from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com I am on a 7-2 college football run and 34-22 NFL. 

We start out with Wednesday, yes Wednesday side in college football. Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year.  Get the picks now as NFL is coming and possibly more football. 

Syracuse at NC State

  • When both teams have been spread disasters lately, it goes under 141-81 though over 26-16-2 since 2017
  • Syracuse Peter Principle team
    • Three games against inferior outscore them 117-36
    • Two best foes outscored 104-26
    • NC State fits into latter category 
  • Syracuse under by an average of -6.1
  • NC State under by average -6.5
  • Syracuse starting QB Tommy DeVito left last game but it probable 
    • Banged up on short week 
  • NC State starting QB Matt McKay pulled but backup QB Bailey Hockman tweaked his knee
  • Third stringer Devin Leary finished up
  • Syracuse starting defensive backs Andre Cisco and Ifeatu Melifonwu have missed the previous two games because of minor injuries

The pick: Syracuse UNDER 57.5 at Bovada college football odds

Colorado at Oregon 

  • Fading road underdogs of 19 or more off home loss as favorite or small dog is 224-169-7 for 57 percent (favors Oregon)
  • Oregon only was competitive against Auburn, thus if they run the table, chance of playoffs 
  • Oregon under 4-1 by -13 points per game, fourth best UNDER team in country 
  • Early money has 52 percent of picks on Colorado and 84 percent of money on Oregon
    • If holds, Oregon would be sharp bet

The pick: OREGON -20 Bovada college football odds

Oklahoma at Texas

  • Texas RB Jordan Whittingham doubtful 
    • Highly touted freshman has yet to play, but was thought of possibly making his debut this week 
  • Texas WR Collin Johnson is probable 
    • Top returning WR has seven catches before betting injured in second game
  • Big favorite in expected blowouts (-9.5 or more) and games expected to be high scoring are 86-42 (Oklahoma) 
  • Fade ranked large underdogs is 73-56 under specific circumstances that apply today (Oklahoma) 
  • Double-digit dog is 6-1 in this rivalry (Texas)
  • Texas only loss to LSU
  • OK QB Jalen Hurts leads the nation in passer rating, ranks second in total offense (404.4 yards per game) and is averaging a ludicrous 14 yards per pass attempt
  • Oklahoma travels 172 miles, Texas 183
  • When total is much higher than each teams previous total it goes OVER 276-227-4

The pick: OVER 75 MyBookie

FSU-Clemson 

  • Just FSU second road game
  • Big favorites off bye 91-43-5 (Clemson)
  • Great rushing teams as big favorites 334-243-15 (Clemson) 
  • Road underdogs off cover as home favorites are 215-135-11 (FSU)
  • FSU off consecutive double-digit wins
  • Teams laying -26 or more versus an opponent off double-digit wins are 19-10 (Clemson)
  • FSU deep at WR with 7 players with 10 catches and 100 yards on season
  • 14 TDs, 2 INT
  • Clemson is 9th nationally with 3.80 sacks per game while FSU is 125th nationally with 3.80 sacks allowed per game.

The pick: Clemson -25.5 MyBookie

Washington State-Arizona State

  • Short road underdogs when not conflicting with our momentum angles are 650-488-29 (Washington State)
  • Go against ranked teams in tough home games is 196-156-4 (Washington State)
  • Rested ranked teams off a 114-83-6 (ASU)
  • WSU DC Tracy Claeys resigned, generally a short-term bump

The pick: WASHINGTON STATE +2 GTBets

MNF Betting Preview Browns vs. 49ers, Market Report, Odds, Betting Systems

The Cleveland Browns take on the San Francisco 49ers on MNF. San Francisco is -4.5, with a total of 47 at NFL live lines after opening up at -5 and 47.  The market report says 56 percent of bets are on Cleveland, yet 58 percent of the money on San Francisco. Many say this equates to a sharp move on the home team. The public prefers betting overs and 57 percent of tickets, with 75 percent of the money is on the over, making the over a small sharp move.

The road team is a stunning 4-0 SU and ATS in the Browns contest. This sets up a unique situation in which road teams in week five or later, who are undefeated on the road and winless at home, are 10-6 to the number. San Francisco is 3-0 SU, but likewise the road team is 3-0 ATS in their contests. 

San Francisco is home off a bye week, while Cleveland played last week. It sets up a half-decent situation in which road dogs of 3.5 not off a bye playing a team off a bye is a solid 130-115-4 ATS. While this angle is just 53.1 percent, it screams to avoid the traditional thinking that a home team off a bye has a significant advantage of a much less rested squad.

Cleveland’s offense has been terrific getting 4.9 yards per rush teams typically allowing just 4.2, 7.6 yards per pass to 7.3 and 6.5 yards per play to 6.1. Their defense is a notch below average using such parameters. The Niners offense has been more sensational getting 32 points per game to teams that usually allow 26.2 on 4.6 yards per rush to 3.9, 8.7 yards per pass to 7.5, and 6.4 yards per play to 5.9.

San Francisco’s defense is solid, especially against the pass. They allow 6.0 yards per pass teams, regularly accumulating 6.7 and 4.9 yards per play to 5.5.

Against the spread trends: Cleveland is 12-28-1 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 0-6 off win of 14 or more. San Francisco is 7-17 at home and 0-6 off a bye week. 

Over-under trends: San Francisco over 15-5 off the bye. 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy, who enters Sunday 8-2 overall and 33-16 with all NFL. MNF total is up from the Grandmaster.  Get the picks now.

Week 6 Lookahead NFL Lines Posted

Lookahead lines for week 6 are posted at Betonline, the home of the opening line. Many sharps like these odds as power ratings to exploit lines over-adjusted because of the previous week’s results. Joe Duffy is having a spectacular football season. At press time, he is off 8-2 college football and is a stunning 33-17 NFL since preseason, winning since 1988 publically.

ROT.

TEAM

SPREAD

103

104

New York Giants

New England Patriots

13.5

-13.5

251

252

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0

0

253

254

Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore Ravens

9.5

-9.5

255

256

Seattle Seahawks

Cleveland Browns

2.5

-2.5

257

258

Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs

8

-8

259

260

New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars

1

-1

261

262

Philadelphia Eagles

Minnesota Vikings

2.5

-2.5

263

264

Washington Redskins

Miami Dolphins

-6

6

265

266

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Rams

4

-4

267

268

Atlanta Falcons

Arizona Cardinals

-3

3

269

270

Dallas Cowboys

New York Jets

271

272

Tennessee Titans

Denver Broncos

0

0

273

274

Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles Chargers

5.5

-5.5

275

276

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

4.5

-4.5

Free NFL Pick Week 5 ATS

Yesterday, OffshoreInsiders.com offered a historic sale on Bet It Trinity and both Joe Duffy and MasterLockLine went 8-2!

NFL free pick:

MINNESOTA -5.5 NY Giants

Go with a team playing consecutive road games, team off a loss under specific circumstances that apply today is 329-243-10. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 133-87-13.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. The Big Ten East Total of the Year on Ohio State completes a 7-2 day in football! It was 8-2 overall. I am 3-0 MLB last two days! Only like to bet a few games? Then check out our Wise Guys! You are either with us our subsidizing us. Those of you in the latter, thanks! 33-16 NFL since preseason is the Grandmaster. Four NFL Wise Guys plus eight Majors. NFC South Total of the Year among the winners.  Both four NFL Wise Guys and 12 winners in the same day are substantial! The intel I have on these games is sickening. Why have a lasted 32-plus years? Info like this

The Top Sports Handicapper 2019 and All-Time Does It Again

Advanced analytics and proprietary software doing thousands of manhours of work. That is Joe Duffy’s Picks. It was 7-2 yesterday and we are on a 32-year NFL winning streak. How are you doing betting on your own?

Were you on the outside looking in on this?

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.

Saturday

Wise Guy

Navy-Air Force UNDER 45

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 764-458-34. Comparing current total to previous totals angle results in an under of 379-252-15. When both apply, it goes under a stunning 143-70-4 for 67.1 percent.

Ohio State-Michigan State UNDER 49

Big Ten East Total of the Year

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 764-458-34. We have a subsystem that goes under 186-85-8.

Iowa-Michigan UNDER 47

Extra enhanced version of teams off great rushing games goes under 226-111,

Major

UTEP-UTSA UNDER 45.5

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 764-458-34.

Tulane-Army UNDER 45

Teams off a dominant rushing effort go under 444-265-23. The extra-enhanced version goes under 226-111. Another one that applies when at least one team is off a high scoring contest has gone under 80 percent in the history of our database.

Kent-Wisconsin UNDER 57.5

Teams off a dominant rushing effort go under 444-265-23

MISSOURI -24.5 Troy

Big favorites off bye 88-43-4. Great rushing teams as big favorites 329-243-15. When the two above are combined and is in games expected to be high scoring is 10-2 all-time for 83.3 percent.

LSU -27.5 Utah State

Big favorites off bye 88-43-4. Great rushing teams as big favorites 329-243-15. When the two above are combined and is in games expected to be high scoring is 10-2 all-time for 83.3 percent. Combining two momentum angles is 406-278.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -26 Umass

Big favorites off bye 88-43-4. Great rushing teams as big favorites 329-243-15. When the two above are combined and is in games expected to be high scoring is 10-2 all-time for 83.3 percent

MLB

Major

HOUSTON (COLE -1.5 -150) Tampa (Snell)

Big favorites on runline are +104.41 under specific circumstances that apply today and yes very much including playoffs.

NFL Week 5 Super Sharp Betting Report, Sweat Barometer

Here is week five NFL sharp report, which includes the so-called sweat barometer. As usual, the public consensus biggest bets are dominated by road favorites, the road underdog Arizona is in the house. Please note, the line moves are from in the preseason when many sportsbooks had odds posted.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New England, Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New England, Arizona, Minnesota

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Denver, Atlanta

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Philadelphia opened -6.5 to the Jets but now -14; Pittsburgh -4 to Baltimore now +3.5; New Orleans -6 to Tampa now +5

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. 33-17 NFL since preseason is the Grandmaster. Four NFL Wise Guys plus Major on Sunday. NFC South Total of the Year among the winners. Monday NFL winner too. Four NFL Wise Guys in the same day is substantial!  Get the picks now

These have been the best teams to bet on:

Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
San Francisco 2-1-0 12.7
New England 2-2-0 11.0
Tennessee 2-2-0 8.4
Kansas City 3-1-0 4.6
Carolina 2-2-0 4.5

These have been the best teams to bet against.

Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
Miami 0-4-0 -18.8
Cincinnati 2-2-0 -8.9
Washington 1-3-0 -6.9
Atlanta 1-3-0 -6.8
Arizona 2-2-0 -5.6
Denver 1-3-0 -4.6

Weather looks good and no major problems to worry about.

College Football Sharp Report Includes Sweat Barometer

College football sharp report for week 6 college football heading into Friday night football games. Suffice to say, bettors adoring road favorites even more than usual this week. Even the games that fell short of our criterion were also road teams laying the lumber. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Maryland, Memphis, Boise State, North Carolina

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Air Force, Stanford, Memphis, Penn State, Maryland

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Stanford, Georgia State, Pittsburgh

Please keep in mind that these line moves include preseason lines posted by sportsbooks. It is a tool to measure overreaction.

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Penn State -11 now -28.5 to Purdue; Michigan opened -13 to Iowa but now just -3.5; Florida -6 to Auburn now +2.5; Miami -6 to Virginia Tech now -14.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy with 15 college and NFL Wise Guys up Saturday-Monday and more coming. Big Ten East Total of the Year and NFC Divisional Total of the Year among them. 33-16 NFL since preseason is the Grandmaster. Get the picks now

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. These are the best teams to bet on

 

Team

ATS Record

ATS Margin

Ohio State

4-1

20.9

Penn State

3-1

18.2

Wisconsin

3-1

17.5

UL Lafayette 5-0

14.6

SMU

5-0

14

These are the best teams to bet against year-to-date. MYBookie has up to a $1,000 bonus with initial deposit.

Team

ATS Record

ATS Margin

VA Tech

0-4

-20.5

Neveda

2-3

-17.1

Akron

0-5

-13.5

Bowling Green

1-3

-13.4

UMass

1-4

-11.4

Florida International

0-4

-11.4

Free College Football Picks Week 6

Big weekend already up at OffshoreInsiders.com led by Joe Duffy, widely accepted as the top sports betting expert in history.

UCF at Cincinnati

  • Can’t manufacture emotion and Cincy hosting conference powerhouse on national TV
  • Cats only loss was to Ohio State
  • When both teams off large win margins goes under 177-121-8
  • UCF two weeks off heartbreaking loss to Pitt, tougher to get up for big games
  • Cincinnati 0-13 SU to ranked teams
  • UCF very aggressive DL line 4th in defensive havoc by FootballOutsiders, while Cincy OL 114th in sack rate
    • UCF big edge on DL
    • Ohio State’s DL humiliated Cincy

Pick: UCF -4 at Bet Now

New Mexico at San Jose St

  • New Mex first three games 70, 80, 104 points scored
    • Last week to Liberty 27
  • New Mexico allowing 6.8 yards per play teams normally getting 5.6
  • San Jose only home game in middle of three road games
  • Total opened 66, but now 64

Pick: OVER 64 at GTBets