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In my handicapping infancy in the late 80s, the Dutchman (recall that bloke scorephone junkies?) was doling out copies of some advice column along the lines of Golden Rules of Handicapping. I can’t even recollect most of the provisions, but do recall they ranged from the obvious like, “Bet with your head, not your heart,” to the total bullshit, “Only wager on an underdog to cover if you think they will win outright.”
All the other theorems were fairly unmemorable. I can’t “credit” the author, because I’m not sure who it was. But yeah, stuff did go viral back then, but before high tech took over the world, it was a 15th generation photocopied note.
Lost in the prudent, yet blatantly evident “not betting with your heart” is a more significant reality: don’t gamble with your broken heart. I’m shocked at how often I hear something along the lines of, “I refuse to bet on any game involving the Detroit Lions. Each time I bet on them whether for or against, I get it wrong.
Though I haven’t done a scientific inquisition, the ensuing soliloquy generally reveals a very small sample size. Further conversations reveals a common pattern is that they bet on them to repeat the performance of the last time they wagered for or against them.
“They lost outright as a 10-point favorite. Next time, I bet against them as an underdog and they won by 20 points,” is a familiar sounding shrieking of annoyance. The fact that sharps bet on capricious teams to be unpredictable notwithstanding, it’s a knee-jerk reflex to eliminate possibilities based on short-term heartache.
It’s as preposterous as swearing off unders because a few tormenting setbacks. Most of us have been there, but only squares abandon the ship.
Perhaps the is a legitimate reason someone has a bad read on a team. If so, assess and determine why. Make alterations accordingly. But if you are basing your next bet on how a certain team performed the last time you place a bet on them—the only bad read you have is on how handicapping works.
The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He’s been dominating handicapping publicly since the 1980s scorephone days. With all the time off during coronavirus, he both added to his systems arsenal and started the dad jokes YouTube channel Hey Abby D with his daughter. The first video is below.
Below you will find spreads for every game NFC North teams will play in 2020.
The odds are broken down by team, and they come courtesy of SportsBetting
Additionally, the bookie recently posted odds for passing, receiving and rushing statistical leaders. Unsurprisingly, two Saints sit atop the board in two categories.
There are more than 35 names on each leader list, but I’ve only listed the top 10 below. Here are the links to find current odds:
North division spreads:
Stats leaders:
Chicago Bears
Bears at Falcons -1
Bears at Panthers +2.5
Bears at Jaguars +6.5
Bears at Rams -3.5
Bears at Titans -3
Bears at Lions PK
Bears at Packers -4.5
Bears at Vikings -4
Lions at Bears -5
Packers at Bears PK
Vikings at Bears PK
Saints at Bears +2.5
Buccaneers at Bears -1
Texans at Bears -3.5
Colts at Bears -1.5
Giants at Bears -6
Detroit Lions
Lions at Cardinals -3
Lions at Falcons -4.5
Lions at Panthers -1
Lions at Jaguars +1
Lions at Titans -6
Lions at Bears -5
Lions at Packers -7
Lions at Vikings -7
Packers at Lions +2
Vikings at Lions +2
Bears at Lions PK
Saints at Lions +5.5
Buccaneers at Lions +2.5
Texans at Lions -1
Colts at Lions +1.5
Redskins at Lions -5.5
Green Bay Packers
Packers at Texans PK
Packers at Colts -1.5
Packers at Saints -5.5
Packers at 49ers -5.5
Packers at Buccaneers -2.5
Packers at Bears PK
Packers at Lions +2
Packers at Vikings -3
Vikings at Packers -3
Lions at Packers -7
Bears at Packers -4.5
Falcons at Packers -6
Panthers at Packers -9.5
Jaguars at Packers -11
Titans at Packers -4
Eagles at Packers -2.5
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings at Texans PK
Vikings at Colts -2
Vikings at Saints -6
Vikings at Seahawks -3
Vikings at Buccaneers -3
Vikings at Bears PK
Vikings at Lions +2
Vikings at Packers -3
Packers at Vikings -3
Lions at Vikings -7
Bears at Vikings -4
Falcons at Vikings -5.5
Panthers at Vikings -9
Jaguars at Vikings -11
Titans at Vikings -3.5
Cowboys at Vikings -2.5
Most Passing Yards
Drew Brees 5/1
Patrick Mahomes 6/1
Aaron Rodgers 8/1
Matt Ryan 8/1
Tom Brady 8/1
Dak Prescott 10/1
Lamar Jackson 10/1
Jared Goff 12/1
Kyler Murray 12/1
Russell Wilson 16/1
Most Receiving Yards
Michael Thomas 6/1
Julio Jones 8/1
DeAndre Hopkins 9/1
Chris Godwin 10/1
Mike Evans 10/1
Odell Beckham Jr. 12/1
Tyreek Hill 12/1
Davante Adams 14/1
Adam Thielen 16/1
Amari Cooper 16/1
DeVante Parker 16/1
DK Metcalf 16/1
Most Rushing Yards
Derrick Hendry 6/1
Christian McCaffrey 7/1
Nick Chubb 8/1
Dalvin Cook 10/1
Ezekiel Elliott 10/1
Saquon Barkley 14/1
Chris Carson 16/1
Joe Mixon 16/1
Josh Jacobs 16/1
Leonard Fournette 16/1
I wouldn’t recommend your kids watch my handicapping videos until they are 18. Mind you, I always say I’m a handicapping degenerate, not a gambling degenerate and my obsession with picking games ATS begin as a pre-teen.
Nevertheless, with a lot more time on our hands that we wanted, my daughter and I started a nice clean, family friendly dad jokes channel. Follow us on Twitter. The magic of dad jokes are that bad=good. So I hope you hate/love our first episode.
Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com previews AFC North 2020 with Scott Reichel and Scott Steehn.
NFL AFC North Division
Thu 9/10 8:25PM odds from 5 Dimes
Baltimore Ravens, -175
Lamar Jackson off career year
Unless they have track record of Russell Wilson, Aaron Rogers, or Tom Brady, will definitely bet on regression
Not the passer of Mahomes
Several pending free agents on defense
Matthew Judon
Michael Pierce
Jimmy Smith
Brandon Carr
Patrick Onwuasor
Need to improve pass rush
OL weak
Need another WR to compliment Marquise “Hollywood” Brown
Draft is deep at WR
Deep at RB
Pittsburgh Steelers, +310
Tomlin great job without Triplets
Added TE Eric Ebron
Roethlisberger works well with TE
Pittsburgh will lose DT Javon Hargrave, who had four sacks in 2019
Ageing OL protecting ageing QB
Likely to grab WR to maximize Benji’s final year or two
JuJu Smith-Shuster
Several close losses last year
Cleveland Browns, +550
Browns were everyone’s chic breakout team with Baker Mayfield
Many sportsbooks admitted if Browns won SB they’d take a bath
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, among best 1-2 punches in NFL
TE Austin Hooper a massive addition
With David Njoku great 1-2 TE punch
Hope Myles Garrett plays whole season on defense
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
New HC Kevin Stefanski
Cincinnati Bengals, +3400
A.J. Green is back
Likely draft Joe Burrow, definitely upgrade from Andy Dalton
Joe Mixon at RB
Physical
Defense, despite spending so much time on field, got stronger
Zac Taylor with year under his belt
2019 first-rounder OLT Johan Williams returns to health
Still OL is a weakness they will likely address in draft
NFL live lines, latest odds once NFL resumes from MYBookie
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Check out these money management strategies from superstar handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com
Essential to my handicapping prosperity has been zigging while many gamblers are zagging. However, in this essay, I will hop on the bandwagon in chattering about bad beats.
Consistent with not being part of the echo chamber, I do differentiate between “bad beats” and heartbreaking losses, though they are far from mutually exclusive. My top two criterion for true bad beats:
The 2014 Bahamas Bowl is widely deemed one of the ugliest if not the No. 1 bad beat of all-time.
Central Michigan outscored Western Kentucky a breath-taking 34-0 in the fourth quarter, then missed on a two-point conversion to lose by one, getting 3.5 points. Soul-crushing if you were on the downside of the miracle, but because every point mattered in the straight-up outcome, I can’t regard it a top 5 bad beat, though certainly a stunner for the ages.
Also, it was nationally televised, and the only game played that day. Higher-profile games will always be more memorable and bias people.
In the name of full disclosure, of course I recall that game very well and may be partial. It was my all-time miracle cover, though probably not topping “good/bad beat” catalog for reasons nuanced above. But the overwhelming part for me individually is that it occured in the midst of one of my worst declines and bad beat runs ever. In fact, it concluded it. It’s crazy how being on the right side of such truly turns the worm.
Christmas continues to be my favorite holiday and my eldest child was born Christmas Eve. So December 24 (when said game was played) is a joyous time for me. As we were celebrating his birthday at my son’s favorite restaurant, I observed the score-in-progress on my phone and concluded it was clear my almost unheard-of rough patch would endure.
We ventured home and I seized a much-needed mental nap. Several hours later upon waking, I checked my computer and swore I was still asleep and dreaming…or awake and hallucinating. I went to probably 4-5 sites at least before I trusted the score. Yep MyBookie posted it as a winner in my account. In fact, I went to the little boys room, cleared out some cobwebs, reassured myself I was awake and corroborated the final tally one last time. What a great Christmas gift.
If I were on the other side, granted I may not have yet recovered, but for perhaps semantical reasons, some lower profile games were worse beats.
As you are about to observe, I can’t recollect every detail or even the exact teams of my most terrible bad beats. But they were lower-profile games. I long to have the photographic memory of respected capper Jeff Nadu for this assignment.
Twice in 2019, I lost unders that went into overtime more than 25 points below the total. Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern had a posted total of 45 on Oct. 19. No problem, they are tied at 10 at the end of regulation. Oh a mere 37 points in overtime kills me.
I cannot immediately recall the other one, but all but certain, we went into extra period more than 30 points below the total. And lost.
Sunday, June 13, 2004, I made one of my biggest bets ever. It was my IL Total of the Year. Overwhelming evidence all pointed towards the New York Yankees-San Diego UNDER 10.5.
What a call. Or so I thought. San Diego leads 2-0, two outs, bottom 9, nobody on. And then all hell broke loose. Of course Yankees tie and send to extra innings. Then the teams combined for seven runs in the 12thas the Bronx Bombers put it over the total with two outs to end it!
The reason I suck on my bar trivia team is because I battle to recall meticulous particulars, even teams involved. Despite my research acumen, only recalling conferences, not opponents robs me from presenting easily quantifiable nominations. But premise and basic essentials of these are accurate if not slightly imprecise.
Circa 1990, pretty certain it was a Colonial Athletic Conference game on Sports Channel America. Though I don’t swear it was Navy-George Mason, I did unearth that in the ’90-‘91 season Mason beat them 85-79 at a bad Navy team. I could not uncover an archived synopsis nor odds, but it may be said game. Or maybe not.
But the gist is accurate. I had the underdog +5.5 and they are winning outright by one. Favorite has last possession and gets back into front court and calls timeout with seconds remaining. The only realistic scenario I get screwed is if chalk gets fouled, makes 1-of-2 and the game continues into overtime.
But then the impossible took place. Chalk makes a three-pointer to go up by two. Underdog calls a timeout…but they had none. I believe the dead ball technical meant two-shots, plus loss of possession. Yep, chalk hits two free throws. They inbound, get fouled and convert two more free throws.
Presuming I did not fumble a detail, I am pretty certain it was seven-points in seconds to cover by a half.
A great beat I had, was possibly the first year of overtime rules in college football, 1995. Either way, mid-to-late 90s. I had the favorite laying about 9.5 in what I am all-but-certain was a late-night Pac-12 game. My team got a touchdown in overtime, but of course their opponent got possession at the “bottom” of overtime. My chalk ends it with a defensive TD to win by 13 in overtime.
If those with more unerring memories can help me fill in the blanks, please let me know!
High-profile games are clearly easier to recall. But after well-over 50,000 bets in my lifetime, I assure you the obscure ones bring every bit as much suffering or sometimes ecstasy.
The legendary Maya Angelou said, “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”
Essentially that theory applies in gambling, but not always in a positive way. I’ve learned I will forget the exact opponents, I will forget the precise details, but I will never forget how those bad beats made me feel.
Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and widely accepted as the best capper in sports gambling history.
The Patriots have been favored in 78 straight games during the regular season. That’s right, the last time they were an underdog was September 20, 2015, at Buffalo.
But according to the the oddsmakers, New England will find itself an underdog more than once this year.
Last week, SportsBetting released spreads for 100 games involving South division teams and their opponents (email me back if you missed them). This week, the AFC and NFC East is on deck.
The Pats are listed as underdogs in seven of their 16 games, including two at home against San Francisco and Baltimore.
Dallas is favored in two historic rivalry games against the 49ers and Steelers.
All odds are courtesy of SportsBetting
Search for your team below and if it’s not listed, spreads for two more divisions will be sent out next week so keep an eye out for that email.
NFC East
Cowboys at Ravens -7
Cowboys at Bengals +5.5
Cowboys at Rams -1
Cowboys at Vikings -2.5
Cowboys at Seahawks -3
Cowboys at Redskins +6
Cowboys at Giants +3
Cowboys at Eagles -2.5
Redskins at Cowboys -11
Giants at Cowboys -7.5
Eagles at Cowboys -2
Browns at Cowboys -4.5
Cardinals at Cowboys -6.5
49ers at Cowboys PK
Steelers at Cowboys -3
Falcons at Cowboys -5.5
Giants at Ravens -13
Giants at Bears -6
Giants at Bengals -1
Giants at Rams -6.5
Giants at Seahawks -8.5
Giants at Redskins PK
Giants at Eagles -3.5
Redskins at Giants -5
Eagles at Giants +3.5
Cardinals at Giants PK
49ers at Giants +6.5
Browns at Giants +1.5
Steelers at Giants +2
Buccaneers at Giants +3
Eagles at Cardinals -2.5
Eagles at Browns -1
Eagles at Packers -2.5
Eagles at Steelers -5.5
Eagles at 49ers +6
Eagles at Redskins -1
Redskins at Eagles -10.5
Rams at Eagles -3.5
Seahawks at Eagles -2
Ravens at Eagles +2
Bengals at Eagles -10
Saints at Eagles PK
Redskins at Cardinals -6.5
Redskins at Browns -9
Redskins at Lions -6
Redskins at Steelers -10
Redskins at 49ers -14
Rams at Redskins +5
Seahawks at Redskins +6
Ravens at Redskins +10.5
Bengals at Redskins -1
Panthers at Redskins -1
Bills at Cardinals +1
AFC East
Bills at Broncos PK
Bills at Raiders +2
Bills at 49ers -6
Bills at Titans -2
Bills at Dolphins +3.5
Bills at Jets +2.5
Bills at Patriots -1.5
Dolphins at Bills -8
Jets at Bills -7.5
Patriots at Bills -3
Chiefs at Bills +2.5
Chargers at Bills -5.5
Rams at Bills -3
Seahawks at Bills -2
Steelers at Bills -3
Dolphins at Cardinals -5
Dolphins at Broncos -5
Dolphins at Jaguars +1
Dolphins at Raiders -4
Dolphins at 49ers -11.5
Dolphins at Jets -3
Dolphins at Patriots -7.5
Jets at Dolphins -1.5
Patriots at Dolphins +2.5
Chiefs at Dolphins +7.5
Chargers at Dolphins PK
Rams at Dolphins +3
Seahawks at Dolphins +4
Bengals at Dolphins -3.5
Patriots at Texans -1
Patriots at Chiefs -8.5
Patriots at Chargers PK
Patriots at Rams -3
Patriots at Seahawks -4
Patriots at Jets +1.5
Jets at Patriots -7
Broncos at Patriots -5
Raiders at Patriots -6
Cardinals at Patriots -5.5
49ers at Patriots +2
Ravens at Patriots +3
Jets at Colts -7
Jets at Chiefs -13
Jets at Chargers -4
Jets at Rams -7
Jets at Seahawks -8.5
Broncos at Jets PK
Raiders at Jets -1.5
Cardinals at Jets -1
49ers at Jets +6
Browns at Jets +1
Bovada has odds posted for 2021 “Comeback Player of the Year.” Three superstars coming back from injury, Ben Roethlisberger, J.J. Watt, and A.J. Green lead the way. Green is tied for third though with no-respect poster child Nick Foles.
Cam Newtown, whose career has been in downward spiral since his MVP season is +750, tied with perennial bust Matt Stafford.
At +10,000 A.J. Rosen is an excellent long shot. Though some may argue he is too young and has not had an injury to have comeback from anything. However, he has already been written off as a bust, despite minimal chance to prove otherwise.
Winner
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