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Chargers-Bills
- Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Chargers)
- 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
- Home underdogs off a loss of 40 or more are 10-3 against the spread
- Philip Rivers predictably unpredictable
- Bills abysmal
- Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa is out
- Yes home underdogs of 7 or more 53.6 percent but only 33-40 when hosting a team off a loss of seven or more
- Fading teams that average 3 or less points per game, unless they are home favorites is 18-8 (San Diego)
- Josh Allen makes first career start after going 6-of-15 for 74 yards passing and 26 yards rushing
- Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 (Bills)
- Home underdogs of 6.5 or more off loss of 24 or more 68-39 for 63.6 (Bills)
- But 4-8 since 2013
Eagles-Buccaneers
- Tampa has terrible last season and undervalued, while Eagles had everything to right
- Tampa WR DeSean Jackson upgraded to probable
- 5 catches in week 1, 106 previous two years
- Both teams with backup, but very experienced QBs
- Eagles Nick Foles
- Bills Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Road favorites that had at least 200 fewer total yards than their opponent did previous week are 20-9
- Listen to what the oddsmakers are telling you
- Eagles RB Darren Sproles is out
- 3,376 career yards rushing on 4.9 yards per carry
- Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery who has had five straight seasons of 52 or more catches is out
Browns-Saints
- Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Saints)
- Fade teams that have no more than one win last 22 SU is 27-10 (Saints)
- Teams off loss as large favorite are 95-66 (Saints)
- Large home favorites with statistically worse defense is 79-57 (Saints)
- Browns tie, mentally draining, but Saints loss motivating
- Teams off a tie 6-14 (go with Saints)
- Saints still without Mark Ingram
- 1124 yards rushing last year, averages 4.5 yards per carry in 5362 lifetime yards
- NO plays Atlanta next week
- Browns dangerous WR Josh Gordon will be cut
- Browns without one of their best pass rushers in Emmanuel Ogbah
- New Orleans defense is more healthy this week
- Saints top scoring home offense since 2015
- When Saints home game total has gone up by up to two points, the OVER is 23-10
- After being most improved defense last year, Saints torched for 529 yard and 48 points to backup Ryan Fitzpatric last week
Pick: NEW ORLEANS -9
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Cardinals-Rams
- Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Cardinals)
- 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
- Cards starting OT Andrew Smith is out
Lions-49ers
- Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Lions)
- 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
- Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Lions)
- Lions starting T T.J. Lang is out
- Jimmy Garoppolo now facing burden of high expectations
- Many examples of QBs being great fade once they go from hunter to hunted
- Stafford 7-14-1 underdogs of six or more
- Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 (Lions)
Giants-Cowboys
- Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Giants)
Colts-Redskins
- Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Colts)
- 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
- Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Colts)
- Solid momentum angle that has to do with undefeated team versus a winless team under specific circumstances that apply today is 70-49-2 (Redskins)
- Skins undervalued as not sure Cousins to Smith is drop-off, Colts overvalued
- Colts Anthony Castonzo is out after being considered probable early in the week
- OL ravaged by injury and they were counting on his return
- Home teams in week 2 that covered by seven or more previous week 39-29-4 (Washington)
- Andrew Luck a stunning 22-6 off SU loss, covering by 6.9 points per game
- 10-1 as underdog by 13.4 points per game
Panthers-Falcons
- Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Panthers)
- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman is doubtful
- Averages 4.3 yards per carry in his career and twice rushed for over 1,000 yards
- Panthers WR Curtis Samuel, fellow WR Damiere Byrd and G Trai Turner all are out
- Samuel 15 receptions in 9 games, 4 starts last year
- Byrd had 10 catches last year
- Panthers OL Matt Kalil, Daryl Williams and superstar TE Greg Olsen remain out
- But Falcons defense with LBs Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, both devastating injuries
- Playoff teams from previous season are 42-28 against the spread in week 2 home openers
- Cam Newton 29-19 against the spread as underdog including 8-6 last 14 SU for +9 units
Texans-Titans
- Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Titans)
- Titans starting QB Marcus Mariota limited in practice
- Look for both Mariota and journeyman Blain Gabbert to get playing time
- Texans star WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable and will be limited if he does play
- Among 4 Texans WR dealing with injuries
- Going against teams that open the season with back-to-back road games is 28-16 including 15-4 in the second of those two road games (Tennessee)
- Including walking wounded, one could argue Tennessee most injured offense in NFL
Patriots-Jaguars
- Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette is game-time decision
- 9 carries, 45 yards off 1,040 yards last year at 3.9 yards per carry
- New England RB by committee but banged up
- Brady 44-19-5 against the spread to AFC foes with a winning percentage above .500
Vikings-Packers
- Packers QB Aaron Rogers is practiced Saturday for the first time and is listed as probable
- Backups DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle
- Will likely have Davante Adams
Miami-Jets
- Dolphins WR DeVante Park is probable
- 56 and 7 catches the last two years
- Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Dolphins)
- Teams off impressive prime-time win 123-72-8 (Jets)
- Jets LB Josh Martin is out
- 14 games, 9 starts last year with 48 combined tackles
- Jets DB Marcus May out
- 16 starts last year with 79 combined tackles
- LG Josh Sitton, who played every offensive snap in game 1 it out for the year
- 4 time Pro Bowler
- Ted Larson, who has 73 starts in 111 games, takes over
- Jets 2-6 against the spread under Todd Bowles off win as an underdog previous week, failing by 9.2 points per game
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Chiefs-Steelers
- Ben Roethlisberger has missed practice this week with bruised right elbow, but probable
- 99.1 QBR at home, compared to 88.7 road
- Le’Veon Bell still out
- Teams off a tie 6-14 (fade Pittsburgh)
- Fading home favorites off a tie is 75-54 (KC)
- Chiefs star S Eric Berry is doubtful, opening up passing game for Pittsburgh
- Ben Roethlisberger is most profitable QB to the UNDER, when fading total line move, going under 49-37
- Gone from 49.5 to 54
- Antonio Brown last four games to Chiefs averaging 6 receptions for 113 yards
- Going against teams that scored 28 or more in week 1 is 52-28 (fade KC, go with Pittsburgh)
- 7-17 if they also allowed 28 or more
Raiders-Broncos
- Oakland down both starting defensive tackles
- Raiders short week and going to high altitude
- Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 percent (Oakland)
Giants-Cowboys
- Two winless teams, go with underdog is 88-66-5 (Giants)
- 58.8 percent road
- Cowboys nobody to catch ball, Zeke Ellliot looking like physical style already caught up to him
- Just 69 yards last week, though only carried 15 times
- Six year starting LB Olivier Vernon is out for Giants
- Dallas with 61 percent against the spread home winning percentage under Jason Garrett
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Biggest line moves:
Green Bay opened -2.5 to Minnesota, now +2.5
Jets P to Miami, now -3
New Orleans -7 to -9.5
Percentage of bets: Houston, LA Chargers, Minnesota, Philadelphia
Percentage of money: Minnesota, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LA Chargers, New Orleans, Houston
