All posts by Joe Duffy

Opening College Football Bowls, Week 15 NFL Line Moves, Sharp Bets, Vegas Sportsbook Liabilities

Super sharp info for both opening weekend of college football bowls and week 15 NFL betting. Top expert picks are from Joe Duffy, America’s only Grandmaster Sports Handicapper: Four bowl winners up Saturday. Wow, both NFL totals and a side Saturday. Supplemental rotation college football winner Saturday added! Then Sunday NFL Wise Guy and nine Majors! Get the picks now from OffshoreInsiders.com

First to the Saturday bowl games:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: North Texas OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: North Texas OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Georgia Southern

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Utah State opened -11 now -7.5, Fresno State -6 now -3, GA Southern P now -3 at MYBookie

Now to Saturday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football NFL picks of the pros:

Weather: 

Baltimore 70 percent chance of rain

San Francisco 52 percent chance of rain

NY Giants 15 mph winds

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New England, New England OVER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Chicago UNDER,

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: NY Jets

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: LA Rams opened -8.5 now -12.5 (Carson Wentz out), Buffalo opened P now -2.5 at Bovada

 

 

 

Free College Basketball Added Rotation Winners for Tonight

Added rotation games using the same techniques that our regular rotation games do. Bet Now releases “added rotation” games sooner than any vetted sportsbook in the world. They are Joe Duffy’s preferred book for the added rotation games in football and basketball. 

CBB

Major

NJIT +3 Fordham at Bet Now

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1618-1281-77.

GRAMBLING +7 UL Monroe at Bet Now

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1618-1281-77.

MISS VALLEY STATE +24.5 Louisiana Tech at Bet Now

Regression to the mean angle that crosses all sports, so we rate it even higher than the pure numbers would dictate because it is a proven theory in other sports. This one has to do with spread margin, AKA sweat barometer is 457-359-15. This includes 9-3 this month.

SAVANNAH STATE +26 South Dakota State at Bet Now

Regression to the mean angle that crosses all sports, so we rate it even higher than the pure numbers would dictate because it is a proven theory in other sports. This one has to do with spread margin, AKA sweat barometer is 457-359-15. This includes 9-3 this month.

Regular rotation games are up as Joe Duffy is on a 19-10 explosion. Two NBA winners increase the run to 21-10. This includes a Wise Guy with an angle that is 71.4 percent all-time. Oh the angle even makes perfect sense and dollars. We explain.  Get the picks now

12-6 in football last week and that does not, not even include 2-1 in added rotation games. Four bowl winners up Saturday. As long as you have a package that includes Monday you can access all week’s picks. So get Bet it Trinity or Joe Duffy’s Picks seven-day pick pack or longer. First drop of NFL hopefully Tuesday and possibly more football including added rotation, before the week is out.

Bet Now odds are below:

6:00 PM
30820 So Carolina St +20½ (-110) 140½ (-110) 2125
30820 Liberty -20½ (-110) 140½ (-110) -4250
REGULAR SEASON
7:00 PM
601 Villanova -7½ (-110) 140 (-110) -330
602 Pennsylvania +7½ (-110) 140 (-110) 270
7:00 PM
603 Georgia Southern +10 (-110) 144½ (-110) 425
604 Central Florida -10 (-110) 144½ (-110) -550
EXTRA GAMES
7:00 PM
30819 Albany NY +13½ (-110) 153 (-110) 800
30820 Yale -13½ (-110) 153 (-110) -1250
7:00 PM
30820 Charleston Southern +12½ (-110) 148½ (-110) 650
30820 Furman -12½ (-110) 148½ (-110) -1000
7:00 PM
30820 Towson +7 (-110) 135½ (-110) 255
30820 MD Baltimore Co -7 (-110) 135½ (-110) -310
7:00 PM
30820 UMass Lowell +3 (-110) 158 (-110) 135
30820 St. Francis NY -3 (-110) 158 (-110) -155
7:00 PM
30820 Loyola Maryland +22½ (-110) 142 (-110) 2375
30821 Maryland -22½ (-110) 142 (-110) -4750
7:30 PM
30821 Miss Valley St +24½ (-110) 150 (-110) 5000
30821 Louisiana Tech -24½ (-110) 150 (-110) -12500
8:00 PM
30821 NJIT +3½ (-110) 133 (-110) 150
30821 Fordham -3½ (-110) 133 (-110) -170
8:00 PM
30821 Grambling +7 (-110) 139 (-110) 265
30821 UL Monroe -7 (-110) 139 (-110) -325
8:00 PM
30821 Prairie View A&M +14 (-110) 151 (-110) 925
30821 UL Lafayette -14 (-110) 151 (-110) -1400
8:00 PM
30821 Savannah State +25 (-110) 178½ (-110) 4000
30822 South Dakota St -25 (-110) 178½ (-110) -10000
9:00 PM
605 Colorado -4½ (-110) 165½ (-110) -190
606 New Mexico +4½ (-110) 165½ (-110) 165
ADDED GAME
9:00 PM
607 Denver U +7 (-110) 149½ (-110) 245
608 Wyoming -7 (-110) 149½ (-110) -290
9:00 PM
30822 North Florida +15 (-110) 156½ (-110) 1000
30822 Minnesota U -15 (-110) 156½ (-110) -1500

Ultimate Bowl Betting Guide 2018-19

Top betting site OffshoreInsiders.com, the top website for sports handicappers and vetted sportsbooks, has critical news and notes for bettors.

Worst spread teams in terms of margin of cover.

Team ATS Record ATS margin

Wisconsin 3-9 -8.6

South Florida 4-8 -7.9

San Diego State 3-9 -6.5

TCU 4-8 -6.2

LA Tech 6-6 -5.0

Western Michigan 4-8 -4.8

Best spread teams in terms of margin of cover.

Team ATS Record ATS margin

Cincinnati 7-5 +10.4

Utah State 9-3 +8.0

Iowa 7-5 +7.6

Washington State 10-2 +7.5

Fresno State 9-4 +7.3

Temple 8-4 +6.9

Syracuse 8-3-1 +6.8

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Players who are skipping the bowls to prepare for NFL draft: Iowa tight end Noah Fant, Michigan defensive lineman Rashad Gary, Houston defensive lineman Ed Oliver and Oklahoma State running back Justice Hill.

Bowl sharp intel:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Ohio State, UAB, Syracuse, Penn State, North Texas OVER, Michigan UNDER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Syracuse, Ohio State, Memphis, Iowa State, North Texas OVER, West Virginia UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arkansas State, Purdue, Central Florida, West Virginia UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Fresno State opened at +3 now -4, West Virginia -6.5 now -1.5, Utah State -11 now -8, Memphis -2.5 now -5

 

Monday Night Football Betting: Vikings vs. Seahawks

The Minnesota Vikings take on the Seattle Seahawks on ESPN Monday Night Football. The Vikings range from a 3-point favorite with juice ranging from -115 to -120 or -3.5 with the juice ranging from +105 to +110. The total is 45.5 to 46. Seattle has 67 percent of bets and 65 percent of the money, with 69 percent of bets and 81 percent of money on the over. The opening line was Seattle -3.5 and 46. 

Strongest bet on the game: A nice 11-6 in football this week, not, repeat not even including 2-1 in added rotation games as we count them separately. MNF total. We went 2-1 in hoops yesterday. Eight NBA winners, five are sides.  Get the picks now

The Vikings are 6-5 against the spread, going under 7-5. However, they have gone over 4-2 on the highway. Seattle is 7-3 in the back pocket, splitting their games 6-6 on the total. The Seahawks +5.8 margin of cover is second best in the NFL. Seattle has gone over the total by an average of 2.3 points per game, with the Vikes going under by an average of 1.3.

The Vikings hold teams to .6 yards per rush below their normal average. Seattle gets 7.5 yards per pass attempt to teams that normally allow 7.0. However, they allow 5.1 yards per carry teams normally accumulating 4.6.

Against the spread trends: Minnesota 22-8 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 34-16 off loss, 2-9 on Mondays, 1-7 with a winning record. Seattle 5-0 to NFC.

Over-under trends: Minnesota under 15-7 after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Series over five straight.

 

NFL Odds Week 15, Saturday NFL Commences

Week 15 NFL opening odds. There are now Saturday games in the NFL to bet and OffshoreInsiders.comwill have the winners, just like through the bowls. Odds are Betonline,home of the opening line.

Thursday, Dec 13, 2018 – NFL Football Game
08:20 PM 301 Los Angeles Chargers +3½ -110 150 56½
302 Kansas City Chiefs -3½ -110 -170 56½
 
Saturday, Dec 15, 2018 – NFL Football Game
04:30 PM 303 Houston Texans -6½ -107 -265 42
304 New York Jets +6½ -113 225 42
 
04:30 PM 305 Cleveland Browns +3½ -118 155 44½
306 Denver Broncos -3½ -102 -175 44½
 
Sunday, Dec 16, 2018 – NFL Football Game
01:00 PM 307 Miami Dolphins 8 -110   44½
308 Minnesota Vikings -8 -110   44½
 
01:00 PM 309 Oakland Raiders 3 105   46
310 Cincinnati Bengals -3 -125   46
 
01:00 PM 311 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 -110   47½
312 Baltimore Ravens -8 -110   47½
 
01:00 PM 313 Dallas Cowboys 3 -115   46½
314 Indianapolis Colts -3 -105   46½
 
01:00 PM 315 Detroit Lions pk -105   38
316 Buffalo Bills pk -115   38
 
01:00 PM 317 Green Bay Packers 4 100   46½
318 Chicago Bears -4 -120   46½
 
01:00 PM 319 Tennessee Titans +2½ -115   43½
320 New York Giants -2½ -105   43½
 
01:00 PM 321 Washington Redskins +6½ -113   36
322 Jacksonville Jaguars -6½ -107   36
 
01:00 PM 323 Arizona Cardinals 9 -115   44
324 Atlanta Falcons -9 -105   44
 
04:05 PM 325 Seattle Seahawks -4½ -105   44½
326 San Francisco 49ers +4½ -115   44½
 
08:20 PM 329 Philadelphia Eagles +8½ -105   52
330 Los Angeles Rams -8½ -115   52
 
Monday, Dec 17, 2018 – NFL Football Game
08:15 PM 331 New Orleans Saints -6½ -110   54
332 Carolina Panthers +6½ -110   54

 

NFL Sharp Moves, Weather, NBA and NCAAB Pros vs. Joes; Tons of Critical Betting Info

Biggest bets NFL is from Joe Duffy’s Picks, as usual. Already in the with Jags and Army UNDER as we 2-0 in football this week, plus 2-1 with added rotation games. 15 Sunday NFL winners led by a Wise Guy. That is an all-time record in my 31st year of my winners public. Be a part of history!  As if that’s not enough, the Grandmaster has added three NBA winning picks.  Get the picks now

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New Orleans

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New Orleans; Indianapolis OVER, Philadelphia OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: San Francisco (very strong) 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Washington opened -1 now +3, Tampa +7.5 now +10, Kansas City -8.5 to -6 (crosses a key number), Cleveland +2.5 now a pick

Critical weather:

Saints-Buccaneers

50 percent chance of precipitation.

Patriots-Dolphins

15 mph winds

NBA sharp intel

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Toronto, Milwaukee OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: New York UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

College basketball sharp action

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Gonzaga

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Grand Canyon, Gonzaga; Virginia UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Grand Canyon

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Tennessee State opened -10 now -7

At SportsBetting get a $10,000 new player freeroll plus best NFL live betting, all at SportsBetting

 

 

 

 

 

2018-19 Bowl Odds Updated, Action Starts December 15th

Bowl odds 2018 are updated. Even the sharpest players must, must shop for the best available lines. These are the ONLY thoroughly vetted sportsbooks we recommend without hesitation: MYBookie | Intertops |Betonline SportsBettingBovadaGTBets |BetDSI |

Joe Duffy has bowl winners up now at OffshoreInsiders.com

Sat. Dec.15 SP/RL TOTAL ML
CELEBRATION BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
12:05 PM  @ Mercedes Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
199 Alcorn St +7½ (-115) 47 (-110) 250
200 N. Carolina A & T -7½ (-105) 47 (-110) -300
CURE BOWL
1:35 PM  @ Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL
203 Tulane -3 (-125) 59 (-110) -165
204 UL Lafayette +3 (+105) 59 (-110) 145
NEW MEXICO BOWL
2:05 PM  @ Dreamstyle Stadium – Albuquerque, NM
201 NorthTexas +9 (-110) 66½ (-110) 285
202 Utah State -9 (-110) 66½ (-110) -345
LAS VEGAS BOWL
3:35 PM  @ Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
205 Arizona State +4½ (-110) 52 (-110) 165
206 Fresno State -4½ (-110) 52 (-110) -190
CAMELLIA BOWL
5:35 PM  @ Cramton Bowl – Montgomery, AL
207 Eastern Michigan +1 (-110) 47½ (-110) -103
208 Georgia Southern -1 (-110) 47½ (-110) -117
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
9:05 PM  @ Mercedes Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
209 Middle Tenn St +7 (-115) 50½ (-110) 230
210 Appalachian St -7 (-105) 50½ (-110) -270
Tues, 18thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
BOCA RATON BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
7:05 PM  @ FAU Stadium – Boca Raton, FL
211 No Illinois +2½ (-110) 43½ (-110) 115
212 UAB -2½ (-110) 43½ (-110) -135
Wed., 19thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
FRISCO BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
8:05 PM  @ Toyota Stadium – Frisco, TX
213 Ohio -3 (-115) 54 (-110) -160
214 San Diego State +3 (-105) 54 (-110) 140
Thur.,20thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
GASPARILLA BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
8:05 PM  @ Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
215 Marshall -2½ (-110) 55½ (-110) -135
216 SouthFlorida +2½ (-110) 55½ (-110) 115
Fri.,21st Dec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
BAHAMAS BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
12:35 PM  @ Thomas Robinson Stadium – Nassau, Bahamas
217 Florida Intl +6 (-110) 68 (-110) 195
218 Toledo -6 (-110) 68 (-110) -235
POTATO BOWL
4:05 PM  @ Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID
219 BYU -12 (-110) 48½ (-110) -460
220 Western Michigan +12 (-110) 48½ (-110) 365
Sat. 22nd Dec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
BIRMINGHAM BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
12:05 PM  @ Legion Field – Birmingham, AL
221 Wake Forest +5 (-110) 74 (-110) 175
222 Memphis -5 (-110) 74 (-110) -210
ARMED FORCES BOWL
3:35 PM  @ Amon G Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX
223 Houston U +3 (-105) 67 (-110) 140
224 Army -3 (-115) 67 (-110) -160
DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL
7:05 PM  @ Ladd Peebles Stadium – Mobile, AL
225 Buffalo U -2½ (-115) 53½ (-110) -140
226 Troy +2½ (-105) 53½ (-110) 120
HAWAII BOWL
10:35 PM  @ Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, HI
227 Louisiana Tech +1 (-110) 60 (-110) -102
228 Hawaii -1 (-110) 60 (-110) -118
Wed., 26thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
FIRST RESPONDER BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
1:35 PM  @ Cotton Bowl Stadium – Dallas, TX
229 Boston College +3 (-115) 55 (-110) 130
230 Boise State -3 (-105) 55 (-110) -150
QUICK LANE BOWL
5:20 PM  @ Ford Field – Detroit, MI
231 Minnesota U +4 (-110) 60½ (-110) 160
232 Georgia Tech -4 (-110) 60½ (-110) -185
CHEEZ-IT BOWL
9:05 PM  @ Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ
233 TCU PK (-110) 40½ (-110) -110
234 California PK (-110) 40½ (-110) -110
Thur.,27thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
INDEPENDENCE BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
1:35 PM  @ Independence Stadium – Shreveport, LA
235 Duke +3 (+105) 56 (-110) 150
236 Temple -3 (-125) 56 (-110) -170
PINSTRIPE BOWL
5:20 PM  @ Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
237 Miami Florida -4 (-110) 47 (-110) -190
238 Wisconsin +4 (-110) 47 (-110) 165
TEXAS BOWL
9:05 PM  @ NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
239 Vanderbilt -3½ (-110) 55½ (-110) -175
240 Baylor +3½ (-110) 55½ (-110) 155
Fri.,28thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
MUSIC CITY BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
1:35 PM  @ Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
241 Auburn -4 (-110) 54½ (-110) -190
242 Purdue +4 (-110) 54½ (-110) 165
CAMPING WORLD BOWL
5:20 PM  @ Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL
243 Syracuse +1½ (-110) 68½ (-110) 105
244 West Virginia -1½ (-110) 68½ (-110) -125
ALAMO BOWL
9:05 PM  @ Alamodome – San Antonio, TX
247 Iowa State +4 (-110) 54½ (-110) 158
248 Washington State -4 (-110) 54½ (-110) -180
Sat.29thDec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
PEACH BOWL
12:05 PM  @ Mercedes Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
249 Florida +7½ (-110) 51 (-110) 255
250 Michigan -7½ (-110) 51 (-110) -310
BELK BOWL
12:05 PM  @ Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
251 SouthCarolina -4 (-110) 54½ (-110) -190
252 Virginia +4 (-110) 54½ (-110) 165
ARIZONA BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
1:15 PM  @ Arizona Stadium – Tucson, AZ
245 Arkansas State -1½ (-110) 60 (-110) -123
246 Nevada +1½ (-110) 60 (-110) 103
COTTON BOWL
4:05 PM  @ AT+T Stadium – Arlington, TX
255 Notre Dame +12½ (-120) 55 (-110) 350
256 Clemson -12½ (EV) 55 (-110) -440
ORANGE BOWL
8:05 PM  @ Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
253 Oklahoma +15 (-125) 81 (-110) 450
254 Alabama -15 (+105) 81 (-110) -600
Mon., 31st Dec. SP/RL TOTAL ML
MILITARY BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
12:05 PM  @ Navy-Marine Corps Stadium – Annapolis, MD
257 Virginia Tech +5 (-110) 53½ (-110) 175
258 Cincinnati U -5 (-110) 53½ (-110) -210
SUN BOWL
2:05 PM  @ Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, TX
259 Pittsburgh U +7 (-130) 52 (-110) 215
260 Stanford -7 (+110) 52 (-110) -255
SAN FRANCISCO BOWL
3:05 PM  @ Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
261 Michigan State +3 (-110) 48 (-110) 133
262 Oregon -3 (-110) 48 (-110) -153
LIBERTY BOWL
3:50 PM  @ Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN
263 Missouri -7½ (-105) 74 (-110) -290
264 Oklahoma State +7½ (-115) 74 (-110) 245
HOLIDAY BOWL
7:05 PM  @ SDCCU Stadium – San Diego, CA
265 Northwestern +7 (-130) 45 (-110) 215
266 Utah -7 (+110) 45 (-110) -255
GATOR BOWL
7:35 PM  @ TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
267 NC State +4½ (-110) 58½ (-110) 175
268 Texas A&M -4½ (-110) 58½ (-110) -210
Tues, 1st January SP/RL TOTAL ML
OUTBACK BOWL – (Full Limits Available On Game Day)
12:05 PM  @ Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
269 Iowa +7 (-130) 44½ (-110) 210
270 Mississippi St -7 (+110) 44½ (-110) -250
CITRUS BOWL
1:05 PM  @ Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL
271 Kentucky +7 (-130) 48 (-110) 210
272 Penn State -7 (+110) 48 (-110) -250
FIESTA BOWL
1:05 PM  @ U of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ
273 LSU -8 (-105) 55½ (-110) -310
274 Central Florida +8 (-115) 55½ (-110) 255
ROSE BOWL
5:05 PM  @ Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA
275 Washington U +7 (-130) 58 (-110) 210
276 Ohio State -7 (+110) 58 (-110) -250
SUGAR BOWL
8:50 PM  @ Mercedes-Benz Superbowl – New Orleans, LA
277 Texas +11 (-110) 58 (-110) 345
278 Georgia -11 (-110) 58 (-110) -430

 

Kyler Murray 2018 Heisman Trophy Likely Winner Say Sportsbooks

It is a two-man race for the Heisman Trophy and offshore sportsbooks say the two-sport star Kyler Murray will win the 2018 away. All odds based on $100 per bet. Hence +1000 would be the same as 10-1. OffshoreInsiders.comwill  have all the bowl winners.

ODDS TO WIN 2018 HEISMAN TROPHY
8:30 PM
15309 Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) 6500
15319 Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) -300
15330 Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) 200