Sports Betting Watch List 6-13-07

Joe Duffy (

Sharp players examine
our daily news and notes on
Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports
gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets on what to look for based on drastic
changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how
the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Mets top hitters are getting healthy. Shawn Green is
returning from the DL and David Wright is red hot.

Insight: The Mets June swoon has been a team effort—or lack
thereof. Their pitching and offense have both been dreadful. However, last year
the Mets offense was able to conceal their pitching deficiencies. Often having a margin of error is the
difference for borderline set-up men being effective and not being successful.

Shawn Green was one
of the Mets most productive hitters before going on the DL. He returns just as
David Wright is swinging the bat well. This will take some of the heat off of
slumping Carlos Delgado.

Their offense will
come around and with a larger margin of error their mediocre bullpen will pitch
better. It’s time to stop fading the Mets
and ride the domino effect.

Update: Houston ousted closer Brad Lidge
is back in a groove. He’s given up just three earned runs in his last 26 1/3 IP
and has tentatively regained the role as closer.

Insight: In the name of full disclosure, as we are finishing off
our article, Lidge gave up that third run to blow a
save. But blowing a one-run lead aside, he is pitching much better. Lidge can be among the game’s best. A reliable closer is important not just for
the obvious reasons, but also psychological reasons. Among them is that nothing can be as
disconcerting as consistently blowing leads.
The damaging snowball effect leads to prolonged slumps. If Lidge is back,
the Astros have their edge back. We look
for underachieving
Houston to finally get on a roll.

Update: Roger Clemens is back, but the jugs gun says his fastball
is not.

Insight: Clemens was so/so against an offensively challenged Pirate
team. Clemens has stated in the past he
is a power pitcher and will never be a finesse hurler. We doubt if he can adjust the way a more
willing Curt Schilling has. Ironically
because Clemens gives the Yankees some swagger, he may actually help them more
in games he doesn’t pitch.

For those raising
their eyebrows and saying how little sense that makes, be aware, we are huge
believers in the Yogi-ism of “90 percent of the game is half mental”. This is more so in baseball where teams play
every day. Sometimes it takes either a
wake-up call or an emotional lift to turn a season around. That’s why we know from experience that
getting arguably the greatest pitcher of all time will help the Yanks even when
he’s not in the ballpark. Getting him
past his prime though could mean good investment opportunities going against
him when he pitches.

Joe Duffy is CEO of and is
the Chief Analyst for Joe Duffy’s Since his “JD of
the ACC” scorephone days, he has been accepted as the top underdog and small
favorite handicappers in the industry.


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