Anyone who has followed me over the years knows I preach
that small favorites and underdogs are where the best value can be found in
betting baseball odds. Who would have thought in a million years
that I’d be looking at Randy Johnson or the New York Yankees as undervalued?
But that’s where we are thanks to slow starts by both. One
of our credos in betting all sports is the Yogi Berra-ism
of “90 percent of the game is half-mental”. Getting Roger Clemens into the
starting rotation will pay wonders for them, not just in games he pitches.
He can be a true stopper, a pitcher who can end a team’s
funk with a pitching gem. Underachieving teams are so often buoyed by a manager
firing, major trade, or in this case, midseason free agent addition.
Admittedly, Johnson being undervalued will be
short-lived. Just as your sportsbook was releasing odds
reflective of the gambler’s belief that Johnson finally was showing his age,
the future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame has been untouchable in his last four
He’s given up four earned runs in his last 23 2/3 IP
allowing 16 hits and just one walk. His .675 WHIP in those four starts is
Whether it’s an overachieving or underachieving player or
team, sharp players know that over a 162-game schedule, more times than not,
they will play back to their mean. A high profile pitcher and a high profile
team top our list of current entities bettors must keep a sharp eye on.