Tag Archives: baseball betting

Facts Over Agenda In MLB Betting: Big Chalks Are Good Bets

I recently conducted a video explaining just a handful of the motives why computer software is so significant in thrashing the bookmakers. High atop the list of reasons is that it helps eliminate biases. 

To this day, I get the shakes just thinking about laying heavy lumber in MLB. Bearing in mind home field advantage, I defined big favorites as more than -255 at home or -211 on the road. But I did eliminate the outlier of bigger than -308. Disclaimer, one could argue there was some back-fitting to maximize units won. Still, it does not nullify the truth that goes against my DNA: large favorites are +88.85 percent on the moneyline and much better +105.91 on runline for 7.9 ROI. 

I suppose it’s always easy to back fit theories. The reality that the runline is even more advantageous gets back to another fundamental of betting: the best way to maximize profits is to minimize losses. I’ve underscored when line-shopping, it’s not just about getting the hook, but also and more so about getting the best juice. Excluding key numbers, a half-point is generally worth about .04 to .06 juice at most. For example, I’d rather get +4 -102 than +4.5 and -110. 

You must acknowledge that you will lose 40something percent of the time. Reduced juice is imperative to acquiring the biggest payouts. When wagering the runline on large favorites, you save an enormous amount of money with each loss or winning a lot more with each win (depending on if your bet amount is based on “to win” or “to risk.”)

The drawback is you do get banged if the garganuan favorite wins by exactly one-run.  But the scientific results demonstrate the tradeoff says to lay -1.5 runs. 

I don’t exercise contrarian information when it comes to baseball moneylines or even runlines because they also incorporate juice. Hence, I’m not the expert that I am in other sports in studying betting tendencies. However, it does stand to reason that even the chalk-lovers among us get sticker shock with numbers above -200. 

In fact, I have noted, certified by data, that in NBA with totals, there are limits to how much is too much. Once totals get in the 240 range, the public backs off overs. Hence the posted price on favorites well above 200 is such a deterrent even to Joey Bagofdonuts that their value manifests.

Regardless of hypothesis, facts are facts, and I have to bite the bullet often, but luckily more with runlines. Still even at -1.5 in the -170 range pays off, despite my apprehension on risking so much vigorish. 

It is less of a surprise that big favorites execute even better on Opening Day, be it home or road. Just as one example, road favorites of -125 or more have a whopping 18.2 ROI on the moneyline and 15.9 on runline in the first game of the season. 

Perhaps one would theorize home underdogs would do well. That’s about the only “intangible” one could argue, but 35-plus years of experience decrees that intangibles are overplayed. Additionally, there are clearly no letdown or lookahead situations (they are playing the same team in their next game anyway), so it makes perfect sense that there is nothing to counterbalance the straightforward superior team winning. 

I’ve built my reputation as “undisputed king of the underdog and small favorites,” but isolated some notable exceptions. I never thought I’d say this, but the newest weaponry in my betting arsenal is laying the lumber—though by and large on the runline. 

The author Joe Duffy is one of the most quoted sports bettors of all-time. CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place for both approved sportsbooks and winning sports handicapping advice. Check out this video on bad beats

Tuesday Pitchers Report Card Betting

Check out some news and notes from Joe Duffy’s Pitcher’s Report Card for Tuesday. Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

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Vincente Valasquez batting practice 15 ER last 18 IP

  • Worse on road with 5.31 ERA and stunning .347 OPB and 1.43 WHIP
    • Not bad at home at .281

Alex Wood 6.06 ERA, .329 OBP last three starts

  • Worse at home 7.82 ERA, .413 OBP, 2.05 WHIP


Jacob deGrom 2.66 ERA for the year, 1.02 WHIP

  • Last three starts 2.57 ERA, .195 OBP, .71 WHIP
  • Even better at night .259 OBP against in 133 night innings
  • No chinks in the armor

Max Sherzer 9-5 2.46 ERA, .266 OBP

  • Though numbers slightly less dominating at hom, he’s just consistently good
  • Also, slightly worse at night


Zach Greinke 14-4 .266 OBP in 177.1 IP

  • Off rare bad outing of 5 ER in 5.2 IP
  • Even slightly better road numbers of 2.85, .245, and .91
    • His teams a combined 6-7 in his road starts

Jordan Lyles 4.55 ERA, .320 OBP

  • 1 ER last 11 IP
  • Slightly better at home at 4.22 ERA, though WHIP and OBP say otherwise

Free Sports Pick From #1 Ranked MLB Handicapper 2019

Third winner added at 10:51 AM. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has two MLB dogs among three winners including Juicy Lucy. Previously referred as a Dandy Dog, a Juicy Lucy is either a moneyline underdog or runline favorite in which we get at least +140 juice. We changed the name to reflect it includes runline chalk. Get the picks now

MLB free pick: 

HOUSTON (JAMES -1.5 +130) LA Angels (Canning) at Bovada

Runline angle based on same-series stats is +72.56 on runline for an ROI of 24.9 percent.

Top trends:

  • Detroit 300-489 since May 5, 2008 underdog -94.12 units
  • Braves 148-139 +55.63 on the road +55.63 since April 15, 2016
  • Royals 73-168 since August 1, 2017 underdogs -57.75 units

Minnesota Twins Skyrocketing Among World Series Betting Favorites

At the two-month mark of the MLB regular season, it’s time to take a look at which teams have improved their championship odds. SportsBetting has updated its World Series odds for 2019. 

While Houston remains a hefty favorite, the home-run hitting Twins have incurred the largest drop in odds, going from 50/1 to start the season to now just 10/1.

The Rays, Pirates and Mariners have also seen notable movement in their favor, with Tampa Bay going from 33/1 to 14/1, Pittsburgh from 80/1 to 40/1 and Seattle 66/1 to 33/1.

Among the preseason favorites that have seen their odds significantly worsen are the Red Sox, Indians, Cardinals, Nationals and Mets.

World Series odds
(odds on 3/28/19 listed first, current odds in parenthesis)

New York Yankees 6/1   (7/1)
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/1   (6/1)
Houston Astros 7/1   (7/2)
Philadelphia Phillies 8/1   (10/1)
Boston Red Sox 8/1   (12/1)
Cleveland Indians 12/1   (20/1)
Chicago Cubs 14/1   (no change)
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1   (20/1)
Milwaukee Brewers 16/1   (14/1)
Washington Nationals 16/1   (25/1)
New York Mets 18/1   (33/1)
Atlanta Braves 20/1   (no change)
Colorado Rockies 25/1   (40/1)
Tampa Bay Rays 33/1   (14/1)
Oakland Athletics 33/1   (50/1)
Los Angeles Angels 40/1   (50/1)
Minnesota Twins 50/1   (10/1)
San Diego Padres 50/1   (no change)
Arizona Diamondbacks 50/1   (no change)
Seattle Mariners 66/1   (33/1)
Chicago White Sox 66/1   (100/1)
Cincinnati Reds 66/1   (150/1)
San Francisco Giants 66/1   (150/1)
Pittsburgh Pirates 80/1   (40/1)
Toronto Blue Jays 100/1   (250/1)
Texas Rangers 250/1   (100/1)
Kansas City Royals 250/1   (500/1)
Detroit Tigers 250/1   (no change)
Baltimore Orioles 500/1   (no change)
Miami Marlins 500/1   (1000/1)

Get the latest updates from top sportbook. Want the best daily winning picks from top sports bettors of all-time? It’s OffshoreInsiders.com to the rescue.

Pitcher’s Reports for Baseball Betting Sunday, May 26

Sunday’s MLB Pitcher’s Report for Sunday, May 26 from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place to go for sports service picks that have been winning since the scorephone days, long before the internet. Want free information like this all the time? Support our sponsors such as MyBookie Casino, which has a $1,500 sign-up bonus to play with live dealers at blackjack, roulette (American and European), baccarat, and super 6.

Dodgers at Pirates

  • Dodgers Meada 0 runs allowed last 2 starts (12 2/3 IP) and none allowed 3-of-4 starts
    • But 5.68 road with .363 OBP against, compared to 1.38 and .208 at home
    • Also worse in day games
  • Pirates Chris Archer 10.66 ERA last 3 with unearned runs in each of his last two
    • Stunning 1.97 WHIP last 3
    • Though he’s been better both home and day games
  • LA Dodgers 117-71 since May 17 of last year +15.94 units and 5.3 percent ROI
  • Pittsburgh over 15-5-1 lately

Red Sox at Astros

  • Sox Eduardo Rodriguez 11 ER last 11 IP, allowing 15 hits
    • Much worse on road with 7.77 ERA and .407 OBP against
    • Home team 6-1 in his starts
  • Verlander 8-1 2.24 ERA, .208 OBP against
    • Home 1.55 and .181 with .62 WHIP
  • Boston over 45-27-1 since Sept 19 of last year
  • Houston 32-12 at home since Sept 1 of last year +10.7 units, but 27-17 on runline for 25.8 percent ROI

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Phillies at Brewers

  • Phillies Zach Efflin, 1 run (including unearned) or less in 4 of last 5 starts
    • .264 OBP against in day games
  • Brewers Brandon Woodruff 5 ER last 5 starts, 30 IP
    • 22 hits and 8 BBs in span
    • But worse at home than road
    • 2.52 road ERA, 4.31 home with OBP against at .263 but .341 respectively
  • Brewers 151-111 at home since May 1, 2016 +32.78 units and 10 percent ROI

Braves at Cardinals

  • Julio Teheran 2 ER last 4 starts last 20 2/3 IP just 10 hits and 11 BBs
    • ERA much worse on road at 4.46 compared to 2.35 home
    • Better at night 3.35 compared to 4.60 day
  • Jack Flaherty 11 ER last 21 1/3 IP
    • 2.48 home, .243 OBP against
    • Compared to 6.20 road, .364
  • Braves 11-3 lastly for 51.1 percent ROI

Bet on these games before the lines move at Betonline, home of the opening line.

Tuesday Sports Betting News and Notes

Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from
the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he
faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0
lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.


Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late,
sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie
Vincent, one of the OffshoreInsiders.com
top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers. Texas
has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.


The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper
Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or
less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.


enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight


southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP
dictates. Fresh off the DL, he takes on
the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly,
Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in


Florida is
ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer
John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18
innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the
Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is
1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their
previous 10 games.


Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago. Over his last two starts he’s given up three
runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their
last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.


Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to OffshoreInsiders.com

MLB Handicapping: Back To Basics

We are often asked what our best sport is in handicapping. At OffshoreInsiders.com we’ve gotten to the point where we are at the top of the list in every sport, so it’s difficult to single one out. However there is no question that our mastery of baseball in the early 1990s is what vaulted me to the point where professional sports handicapping would be my lifelong profession.

Yet, to be perfectly frank, while continuing to improve upon our results in other sports, over the last year and a half, I returned to the pack in baseball.  It was time for some serious introspection. Fortuitously, going back to my handwritten spiral notebook scorephone days, I saved my picks, 
analysis, and results from decades past.

Was I doing something different all of a sudden? After a few hours of soul searching, it became obvious I slowly but surely abandoned some of the basics that got me to the pinnacle in the first place.

In some respects, I became a victim of my own success betting picks winners. In 2005, I had probably my best year winning what we call “Dandy Dogs”. Dandy Dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more
(includes runline plays getting back 140 or more).

The downside was it led me to develop a bias against even small favorites. I’ve known and preached for years the basics of risk/reward ratio. For example, a 150 favorite needed to have a 60 percent chance of winning to be a break even bet or based on our threshold had to have 70
percent chance of winning to be a premium play. Yet there were nights I’d go 3-4 and still win money because of betting all dogs. Bit by bit, I developed personal chalk reluctance in betting.

Too many well-handicapped favorites of more than 120 became passes for me simply because of my increasing acute prejudice against laying the juice. Since returning to my roots, the 120-160 favorites have been a major reason behind my return to MLB handicapping prominence.

But even with picking
our baseball underdogs, we became victims of the successes we had in other sports. We take great pride in being ahead of the curve with modern technology. The Internet made every team the “local team” from a handicapping standpoint because once regional information is now so easily accessible.

The World Wide Web has been a boon to us in preseason NFL with accurate key player rotation and motivation info. In college football and basketball it has revolutionized the way sharp players bet.

While super systems have been a great addition in all sports including baseball, our self scrutiny brought to light that we were allowing the Billy Beane
and Bill James inspired new fangled stats to convince us out of winning picks.

In our first two decades of handicapping, we have had significant success with big underdogs by riding either hot but non-elite pitchers and/or fading struggling star pitchers. Yet information overload had us finding a fly ball/ground ball ratio or walks/strikeout percentage that talked us out of the same kind of plays that for decades won for us.

Let there be no doubt whatsoever that ERA and WHIP are still the two most important statistics in foretelling future results of pitchers. Likewise in handicapping offense we have streamlined with great success. Just like for 20 plus years, we returned to utilizing on base percentage and slugging percentage foremost.

We never stop fine-tuning our techniques but our introspection reminds us sometimes we need to remember “if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”. Since returning to our roots in baseball handicapping, not so coincidently we have returned to the results our clients and we desire.

With all other sports, utilizing the Internet and cutting edge computer software is imperative to staying ahead of the curve, but MLB is the clear exception. Baseball handicapping is much like playing the game: master the basic fundamentals.