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The Initial God’s Tid-Bets
God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 1
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Most of the articles I’ve written are one basic concept or theory discussed in great length and detail. But this is the era of the Internet blogger. Random thoughts are in vogue. Of course we have our daily “blog” in which we amass news and notes compiled from websites and hometown newspapers from around the county.
But consider this my “evergreen” blog, a synopsis of recent discussions, debates and questions that I’ve had on gambling theory.
In response to a question about crowd sizes and homecourt advantage—in this particular case it was college hoops:
There are endless quotes from players and coaches alike who have spoken of which are the toughest arenas in which to play. There have been many articles written by said participants.
Back when Penn State played in their gym, it was considered one of the great home court advantages in all of hoops. Ditto for the West Virginia Coliseum. Sharp players are very aware of home/road dichotomy. The even more acute look beyond the stats and scratch the surface. It stands to reason that home court advantages become even bigger when a sell-out crowd is on hand.
I’ve spoken in the past of a handicapper who while I admit at times is blinded by what he calls intangibles. I must confess that I used to laugh when he would go nuts over such things as a team with their first sell-out in three years or first game on national television, etc. But in hindsight, these nuggets can have some use, though unlike the aforesaid handicapper, I prefer to use it as part of the preponderance of evidence rather than basing a huge play on solely it.
I have found home court advantages are much less when students are on Christmas break or particularly in the smaller conferences on Spring break because of the condensed crowds. This has been especially true in the NIT where many teams host games while students are on Spring break.
Using revenge in handicapping:
Revenge is among the most misused angles in selecting winners. It seems 95 percent of the time I hear someone touting “revenge” it’s predicting one team (almost always a favorite or at least virtual pick ‘em games) annihilating their combatant
But in yet another example of what separates the discerning from the “dis-earning” is knowing where retaliation pays its biggest dividends. Year in and year out, we have found ill will is a huge factor when a big dog is avoiding being thoroughly embarrassed again.
For example if an inferior team lost by 40 points to a superior team and is getting 15 points in the rematch, the dog is much more motivated to preserve one’s dignity by avoiding another whitewash.
There is no better motivation to have a big underdog provoked to keep a score respectable than to have previously been obliterated by their opponent.
Top teams taking out their frustrations following a loss:
John Q. Public loves betting on a top shelf team following a rare loss. In the elongated NBA or MLB seasons, often it would be an embarrassing loss needed for a wake-up call. We are not minimizing this consideration, but knowing the public embraces this theory, oddsmakers can ready for the square who blindly bets it. However win, lose or draw, the unsophisticated gambler disregards this dogma after the ensuing game.
Especially in college football, basketball and the NBA, we have found top shelf teams heed the lesson and take out their anger for several games.
The premier teams did not become that way by subscribing to a philosophy that one win cancels out a loss. There is more spread value in riding preeminent teams two and three games following a loss. In fact in our daily news and notes, so often we give you nuggets like “Since their loss to Acme State, Generic University is 4-0 with the average margin of victory 23.2 points.”
If you would like to ask a question or suggest a topic for future blogs, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.
Paying For Picks, the Pros and the Cons–Literally
Are You Handicapped Without a Handicapper?
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
It’s a conundrum that many ATS fortune hunters face. Sports gambling can be a great leisurely activity for all, but for the well-versed sports prophesier, it can be a lucrative enterprise.
There are sharpies and wise guys who do make a lot of money sports gambling, but it takes the ability to both line-shop and forebode the outcome of games to make it profitable.
While my clients’ line-tracking skills are their own, the most important doomsday machine that an odds protégée can harbor is knowing the right sides and totals to monitor. Go to any search engine and enter “Godspicks” you will find endless articles on the intel needed for advantageous prophecy, but as the musician was told on the way to Carnegie Hall, the only solution is practice, practice, and practice.
Let there be no doubt that there are a limited number of qualified professional handicapping experts. Unfortunately the consumer is forced to ferret through the much more commonplace coin flippers with a grandiloquent sales pitch before unearthing the maestro confidants.
Too often desperate gamblers are clay pigeons for a windbag who talks the talk, but cannot walk the walk. Sometimes the other extreme happens. Ironically so many clients thinking they are suave patrons fall prey to the wolves in sheep’s clothing.
They are bamboozled into thinking virtuous means a virtuoso. It befuddles me how these people are the most easily hoodwinked considering how they present themselves as the more discriminating shoppers of sports investment advisors.
I have seen on Internet posting boards for example gamblers assign credibility to handicappers using the bottom rung criterion of merely admitting to losing days. Any huckster can merely come clean on heads covering when he picked tails. Professional gamblers can only sneer at such easily mislead gamblers who keep the bookmakers in business for the rest of us.
The polished magnate is much more concerned with handicappers who have few losers to proclaim than those who think sportsbooks are merely confessional booths. “Bookmaker forgive me for I have lost, it has been three weeks since my last winner.” If you can find a bookmaker who accepts “Hail Marys” and “Our Fathers” as payment, more power to you. The rest of you, I would implore you to set the bar much higher when purchasing advice.
In Advertising 101, they teach to “Sell the sizzle and not the steak.” But there really is no correlation between hard-sell/soft-peddle and legitimate/illegitimate in this field.
Let me elaborate though. This is not to say that one should give merit to the notorious snake oil salesmen. Rest assured anyone who claims “inside information” or implies that a game is a sure thing; the only forgone conclusion is that you better hope the shyster that you paid used the lucky paper clip.
A sharp player never merely gives the squeakiest wheel the oil, but also does not fall for the façade of legitimacy that uninformed consumers effortlessly acquiesce to the soft-peddlers.
Some brag because they can do it, others ballyhoo because a sales pitch is all they have got.
Quite often I get an email from someone saying that they want me to give them my premium picks for a few weeks and than if they are satisfied they will purchase a long-term package.
Even though gambling by its mere definition involves, well a “gamble” I wish all the worldly endeavors that by their nature involve less risk than gambling could come with such guarantee and free lunches as requested by the likes that I just mentioned.
Well speaking of free lunches, my only other obsession besides triumphant prognostication is dining. Could you imagine if I went in a restaurant and told them they should give me a few free meals before I determined if I wanted to consent to buying a meal?
Do not misconstrue what I assert, restaurants and many other businesses give free samples. Oh, I am so enlightened on that. My wife saw on television one day about how easy it is to acquire free samples via the Internet. Our life and mailbox has never been the same since. But I digress.
Car dealers certainly allow test drives. Likewise, reputable handicappers allow you to not only get free selections, but also even more importantly enable you to experience, savor and partake in their expertise. Well-informed and experienced handicappers should have no problem proving their proficiency before a game even starts with the profoundness of their accompanied analysis.
What, there was no reasoning and justification given with their free play? Purchase at your own risk. Caveat emptor. If a selection looks like a shot in the dark, it probably is. If a sports stockbroker is well informed, he has no reason not to flaunt it. But if a robber baron is trying to simply pawn off a guess, it is tough to present scrutiny and research when it consists of a wink and a smile.
But again, those who happily make payment for blind faith underwrite the bookmakers so they can painlessly benefact those of us who live and breathe sports betting.
A learned foreteller should have articulate widely published articles on gaming theory and strategy. Any handicapper who wants your patronage would be happy to showcase gaming scholarly doctrine. It is his best sales tool.
An educated buyer is good for both the gambler and top shelf handicapper. But those who want to judge all professional speculators by the actions of the most notorious are doing themselves and the true pros an injustice. Prejudice against members of any profession may be more politically correct than preconceived notions against someone because of their race, color or creed, but it is narrow-minded bigotry nonetheless.
Neither blind faith nor McCarthyism towards professional handicappers will do you fairness. But investing money in the proper middleman is most conducive to making coach potatoism a bull market.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.
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