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Free NCAA Football Picks Against the Spread

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To say the least, the greatest handicapper off all-time Joe Duffy is the hottest. JDP is 48-28 since preseason on NFL. I already nailed easy TNF Total of Year. Now it’s the TNF Game of the Year on Chiefs-Broncos. I am 18-7 college football.  Friday college football side. Saturday 11 college football winners led by two Wise Guys. BONUS: Added Rotation Game of the Year in college football as well.  Sunday, NFL Wise Guy gets us started!  Get the picks now

Here are free picks for this weekend:

Temple at SMU

  • Rested, ranked home teams are 104-74-4 (SMU)
  • SMU 5-1 ats +10.7, 5th best in nation
  • SMU over all six by average of 10.2, 7th best OVER team
  • Teams off triple OT wins 22-17 ATS for 56.4 percent (SMU)
    • Also off bye
  • SMU Shane Buechele is completing 67 percent of his passes this season and he has thrown 12 touchdowns
  • RB Xavier Jones has rushed for 646 yards and 12 scores for Mustangs
  • Temple 2-0 to ranked teams Maryland and Memphis

The pick: Temple +7.5

Arizona at USC

  • USC very competitive in loss to ND, but five starters on defense banged up
  • Arizona is second in the Pac-12 with 103 plays of at least 10 yards, second in plays of at least 20 yards (41), first in plays of at least 30 yards (20) and first in plays of at least 40 yards (15). It also leads in plays of 50, 60 and 70-yard plays. 
  • USC also predictably unpredictable
  • Consider live total, keep betting overadjusted line
  • USC gets 8.2 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.9 and average 9.5 at home
  • Arizona has one of the more anemic pass rushes in the country with just five total sacks in six games, tied for No. 123 in the nation.
  • Arizona has one of the more anemic pass rushes in the country with just five total sacks in six games, tied for No. 123 in the nation

Pick: OVER 67

Texas A&M at Ole Miss

  • Texas A&M has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to this point of the season. The Aggies’ three losses have come at the hands of No. 1 Alabama, No. 3 Clemson and No. 11 Auburn
  • Since John Rhys Plumlee took over the starting quarterback position for Ole Miss on Oct. 28, the Rebels have covered the spread in all of his starts
    • Redshirt freshman Matt Corral still will see extensive playing time
  • General rule of thumb: freshman-laden teams improve and are more dangerous at home

The pick: Ole Miss +6.5

WVU at Oklahoma (-33.5, 65)

  • Big favorites in high scoring games are 163-113-12 for 59.1 percent (Oklahoma)
  • Letdown after Texas
  • Second biggest underdog that WVU has ever been
  • WVU short-handed
    • Starting cornerback Hakeem Bailey will miss the first half after getting ejected for targeting
    • Fellow starter Keith Washington was inactive against Iowa State due to a muscle injury that affected his ability to run, so his return against Oklahoma is no guarantee.
    • Starting quarterback Austin Kendall, an OU transfer is questionable
    • Kendall was primarily a backup for two Heisman Trophy winners, completing 28 of 39 passes for three touchdowns in two seasons with the Sooners
    • 66 percent completions, 1247, 9 TDs, but 7 INT
    • Backup Jack Allison 18-of-24 for 140 yards

The pick: Oklahoma -33.5

Boise State at BYU

  • Dogs of 5.5 or more in two-game or more losing streak versus an opponent in a four-game or more winning streak 93-56-4 (BYU)
    • Momentum exception
  • Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier is doubtful
  • Redshirt sophomore Chase Cord finished 12-for-18 passing for a career-high 175 yards and a QB rating of 203.3.
  • Jaylon Henderson was 6-for-10 passing for a career-best 82 yards
  • Boise one of three undefeated non-Power 5 teams
    • Only SMU could leapfrog them but style points still a consideration
  • Significant pressure on Boise State though road game, likely with BU QBs

The pick: BYU +6.5

 

Arizona State at Utah

  • Teams off dominant win 583-414-28 (Utah)
    • Sub-system takes it to 59.1 percent
  • ASU won previous two meetings by combined 38 points
  • Utah QB Tyler Huntley season ended last year against ASU
  • ASU off dramatic win to WSU
  • When the total is substantially less than each team’s previous total, it goes under 391-262-15
    • Utah total 60 last week, ASU 61

The pick: Utah -13.5

 

Bet Now has a 50 percent signup bonus and are the best place to bet added rotation games in both college football and basketball. Joe Duffy has his Added Rotation Game of the Year this weekend in fact. OffshoreInsiders.com has every vetted sportsbook.

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Georgia Bulldogs Still In National Championship Picture

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Despite Georgia’s home loss to South Carolina as a 21-point favorite, the Bulldogs still have better CFP odds than seven undefeated teams, including two from the Big Ten.
SportsBetting sent out updated College Football Playoff odds Sunday, and after the loss Georgia went from 7-1 to 12-1, but that number is still sixth-lowest among the 24 teams on the betting board.
Last week, early CFP spreads were released and Georgia was an 8.5-point underdog against Alabama, +4.5 versus Clemson and +2 against Ohio State.

LSU’s odds moved from 7-1 to 10-2 while Florida dropped to 50-1 after being 30-1 last week. 

In a pivotal matchup this week, Penn State opened as an 8-point favorite over Michigan.

Current odds:

College Football Playoff

 

Alabama

5-2

Clemson

5-2

Ohio State

5-1

LSU

10-2

Oklahoma

6-1

Georgia

12-1

Wisconsin

16-1

Penn State

25-1

Auburn

40-1

Michigan

40-1

Notre Dame

40-1

Utah

40-1

Florida

50-1

Oregon

50-1

Baylor

66-1

Texas A&M

80-1

Arizona State

150-1

Boise State

150-1

Minnesota

150-1

Texas

150-1

Iowa

250-1

SMU

250-1

Washington

250-1

Oklahoma State

500-1

Appalachian State

1000-1

Joe Duffy’s Picks is on another historic run at 47-27 NFL and 18-7 college football. Lock in long-term at OffshoreInsiders.com

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NFL Opening Lines Week 7

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Opening lines week 7 from Betonline. These are lookahead lines posted before week 6. Many sharps, including the top NFL handicapper of all-time Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com use these as power ratings. It’s a common belief the biggest oddsmaker (knowing the public does such) overreaction is based on previous week’s results. Pro gamblers of course make adjustments for injuries, but these lines are both exploited early and late and ideal for “bet middlers.”

303

Kansas City Chiefs

-5½

-110

50

-110

304

Denver Broncos

+5½

-110

50

-110
 

451

Arizona Cardinals

+2½

100

49½

-110

452

New York Giants

-2½

-120

49½

-110
 

453

Houston Texans

1

-110

47½

-110

454

Indianapolis Colts

-1

-110

47½

-110
 

455

Miami Dolphins

+16½

-110

40½

-110

456

Buffalo Bills

-16½

-110

40½

-110
 

457

Minnesota Vikings

pk

-110

44

-110

458

Detroit Lions

pk

-110

44

-110
 

459

Oakland Raiders

7

-110

46½

-110

460

Green Bay Packers

-7

-110

46½

-110
 

461

Jacksonville Jaguars

-3½

-120

47½

-110

462

Cincinnati Bengals

+3½

100

47½

-110
 

463

Los Angeles Rams

-3½

-110

53

-110

464

Atlanta Falcons

+3½

-110

53

-110
 

465

San Francisco 49ers

-9½

-120

43

-110

466

Washington Redskins

+9½

100

43

-110
 

467

Los Angeles Chargers

2

-105

40½

-110

468

Tennessee Titans

-2

-115

40½

-110
 

469

Baltimore Ravens

+3½

-115

50

-110

470

Seattle Seahawks

-3½

-105

50

-110
 

471

New Orleans Saints

4

-112

39

-115

472

Chicago Bears

-4

-108

39

-105
 

473

Philadelphia Eagles

3

-105

47½

-110

474

Dallas Cowboys

-3

-115

47½

-110
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Week 6 NFL Injuries, Sharp Moves, Public Consensus, Weather

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In no shock, the public loves road favorites this week, with the only two overwhelming public consensus bets on Atlanta and Arizona. Tennessee is slight road underdog, but opened as a favorite on the Betonline lookahead line. Plus with home field being worth three-points, they are the implied better team playing on the road.

As one can see below, with top advisor to pro gamblers Joe Duffy in another groove, high rollers are putting a beating on the books.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Atlanta, Arizona

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Atlanta, Tennessee; Atlanta OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Jacksonville

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds. This includes true opening lines over the summer when books had “games of the year” lines posted: Dallas opened -1.5 to Jets now -7; Kansas City -8.5 now -4, Carolina P now -2.5.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from I am 40-24 NFL since preseason. I am 18-7 in college football! Updated: Ten NFL led by Wise Guy side. I swept Wise Guys already with Friday Night GOY on Miami, Big 10 Total of the Year Wisconsin UNDER. Also, Army UNDER was a Wise Guy. Added the ALCS total, plus a side or runline.

Simply put, you never have runs like this on your own. My clients expect it and get it delivered. I am smoking hot. Get the picks now

Two sites have fairly high winds today. Here is the week 6 NFL weather report:

Game Wind Speed
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 mph
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns 16 mph

Critical NFL injuries:

  • Saints star RB Alvin Kamara will play
  • Rams RB Todd Gurley is out
  • Cardinals RB David Johnson probable
  • Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill is probable
  • Ravens WR Marquise Brown is doubtful
  • Dallas is ravaged with injuries with starting ORT La’el Collins out and OLT Tryon Smith doubtful. WR Randall “Tex” Cobb is game-time decision
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LCS, Updated World Series Odds; Astros Faves

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As has been the case most of the season, the odds remain heavily slanted toward the Houston Astros to collect their second World Series championship. 

The latest from SportsBetting.ag have the Astros better than a 2-1 favorite in the World Series odds. They are the odds-on favorite to defeat New York in the ALCS.

The Cardinals and Nationals have identical title odds, while Washington is a small favorite over St. Louis in the NLCS. 

Current postseason odds from SportsBetting

World Series

 

Probability

Houston Astros

+140

41.67%

New York Yankees

+250

28.57%

Washington Nationals

+450

18.18%

St. Louis Cardinals

+450

18.18%

 

AL Pennant

 

Probability

Houston Astros

-160

61.54%

New York Yankees

+140

41.67%

 

 

 

NL Pennant

 

 

Washington Nationals

-130

56.52%

St. Louis Cardinals

+110

47.62%

OffshoreInsiders.com is the place to go for both winning sports picks and vetted sportsbooks.

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Week 7 College Football Sharp Betting Report

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North Texas is one of the most significant consensus bets of the year. The public loves betting favorites. The general exception is they do happily bet highly ranked underdogs. But six-point underdog North Texas has gotten a stunning 87 percent of wagers. Here is the sharp rundown.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: North Texas, Army, UAB, Maryland, Wake Forest

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Army, UAB, Vanderbilt

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: South Florida, Louisville, Charlotte

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. 39-24 NFL since preseason. Heating up big time in college football with 7-2 Saturday. Football’s first drop is up Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. NFL Thursday Night total plus first three Sunday NFL!  Get the picks now 

Best team this year in terms of “Sweat Barometer” or margin of cover.

Team

ATS Record

ATS Margin

Ohio State

5-1-0

18.0

Wisconsin

4-1-0

16.6

LA Lafayette

5-0-0

14.6

Penn State

3-2-0

14.5

Navy

3-1-0

12.8

Hawaii

3-2-0

11.6

Best teams to bet against thus far

Team

ATS Record

ATS Margin

Nevada

2-3-0

-17.1

Akron

0-5-0

-13.5

VA Tech

1-4-0

-12.2

U Mass

1-5-0

-12.2

Rutgers

1-4-0

-12.0

Bowling Green

1-4-0

-12.0

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College Football Free Picks From Sports Betting Podcast

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Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

So far Sunday, six NFL led by Wise Guy side. Get the picks now 

Memphis (-6, 50) at Temple

  • Memphis opened -3 now -6
  • Memphis last 4 games, a combined 154 points
  • Total of 50 or less despite one team combining for at least 144 points last four games goes under 192-136-6
  • Memphis defensive back Chris Claybrooks is expected to make his season debut
    • Speed and coverage ability, great return game
    • Very key player especially after giving up 319 passing yards to ULM
  • Memphis RB Patrick Taylor questionable after missing four games
  • Best defense Memphis has seen all season, ranked No. 1 in conference in scoring defense
  • Hold teams to .9 yards per rush, 1.0 yards per pass, and .9 yards per play below normal average
  • Memphis holds teams to .8 yards per rush, 1.1 yards per pass and .9 yards per play below
  • Temple beat only other ranked opponent Maryland

The pick: UNDER 50.5 at MyBookie

USC at Notre Dame (-11, 59)

  • Going with home teams off a dominant win is 581-412-28 (Notre Dame)
    • Subsystem takes it to 59.2 percent at 408-281
  • With ND’s only loss a close one on road to UGA, still in national title picture
  • USC off bye and got starting QB Kedon Slovis back
    • True freshman went 60-of-77 for 732 yards, five touchdowns and four touchdowns in four games
    • Tough road game
    • 3 starting QBs in five games because of injuries
    • Slovis still ranks second in the FBS in completion percentage (.779), trailing only LSU’s Joe Burrow
  • USC gets back S Talanoa Hufanga who was leading tackler when he got hurt
  • Also cornerback Olaijah Griffin probable to return

The pick: USC +11 at Bovada college football odds

 

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Game 5 Picks: Braves-Cardinals, Nats-Dodgers, Astros-Rays

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Three MLB series will see a pivotal Game 5. Get the official betting preview on all three. The first goes in early evening today, the Cardinals vs. Braves.

The Cardinals were about ready to give up on their 2019 pennant dreams in Game 4. Somehow, someway, they managed to pull a huge victory from the ashes. They beat the Braves 5-4 in the 10th inning. Now, they’ll look to take down Atlanta in Game 5.
Ace Jack Flaherty takes the mound. Flaherty pitched okay in Game 1, throwing for 7 innings and giving up 3 runs on 8 hits. Flaherty struck out 8. It was enough for the victory. If Flaherty repeats his performance, the Cardinals can take this on Wednesda

Full preview below

Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy: We start out another winning football week with Wednesday, yes Wednesday side in college football. Plus, MLB Wise Guy at 5:02, Major at 8:37. Get the picks now  

Washington Nationals vs. LA Dodgers gambling tips are below.

The Washington Nationals and L.A. Dodgers send two of their top starters to the mound on Wednesday, Oct. 9. Game 5 of the 2019 National League Divisional Series will be the final time one of these teams plays this year. Will the Nats pull off the major upset over a World Series favorite? Or, will the Dodgers head to their third straight NLCS? See below for the MLB odds, a preview and a free pick for Nationals vs Dodgers Game 5!

MLB betting news below

Now to tomorrow where Tampa has a Ray of hope.

The Rays got to Justin Verlander but that’s because Verlander threw on only 3 days of rest. His control was way off. Many of his pitches sailed on him. Cole heads to the mound on Thursday after 5 days of rest.
He’ll be ready to dominate the Rays again. Almost as important are two facts about the Rays in this matchup. They beat the Astros in Game 2 by chasing Glasnow off the mound after 4.1 innings. Glasnow could have the same trouble in Game 5 he had in Game 2

The free pick is below.
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Week 7 College Football Parlay Bets, ATS Picks, Totals, Moneyline Winners

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Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

So far Sunday, six NFL led by Wise Guy side. Get the picks now 

Sharps have made a fortune already this season, but we are just getting started. Joe Duffy remains in fire, but so are some free picks.

Parlay picks are up for the weekend.

UVA comes off a bye week. It lost 35-20 at No. 10 Notre Dame on Sept. 28. Virginia (4-1) led 17-14 going into the half, but was outscored by 21-3 in the second. Bryce Perkins threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns in the first half for UVA. Wide receivers Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed each had over 100 yards receiving and scored a touchdown for the Cavaliers. Dubois became the 41st Cavalier to reach 1,000th career receiving yards.
Virginia had 338 total yards on offense, passing for 334 of those yards, but had five turnovers. The Irish forced the Cavaliers into a total of 4 rushing yards on the day, the fourth-lowest total by a Notre Dame opponent since 1996. The Irish also had eight sacks.

More below

The most popular way to win bets is picking games against the spread. There are some standout picks.

Michigan State saw their modest two-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in their humbling 34-10, Week 6 loss against Ohio State. The Spartans are averaging a decent 27.8 points per game (75th) while limiting the opposition to 18.2 points per contest defensively (21st).
Wisconsin moved to 5-0 on the season by routing overmatched Kent State 48-0 this past weekend. The Badgers are putting 43.4 points per game (11th) while limiting the opposition to a mind-boggling 5.8 points per game to lead the nation in fewest points allowed. Wisconsin has also won two of the last three meetings in this rivalry including an emphatic 30-6 blowout road win a year ago. With the way the Badgers are playing on both sides of the ball, I see almost no way that Michigan State gets the upset road win in this Big Ten battle.

Full betting tips linked below

Some love office pools and many bet the winners straight up. You don’t want to miss this preview

Can the Illinois Fighting Illini’ pull off the big upset in their Big Ten battle against a Michigan Wolverines team that hasn’t looked overly powerful this season? Are the Georgia Bulldogs locks to avoid a home upset in College Football Week 7 against visiting South Carolina? Last but not least, could the Texas Longhorns make it two regular season wins in a row when they host the explosive Oklahoma Sooners in the latest edition of their annual Red River Showdown?
If you’re a betting aficionado that loves making simple straight-up, moneyline wagers, then look no further. I’ve got a trio of College Football Week 7 SU picks that looks simply salivating!

Article in full below

Now to over-under action. Joe Duffy is 39-24 NFL since preseason. Heating up big time in college football with 7-2 Saturday. Football’s first drop is up Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. NFL Thursday Night total plus first three Sunday NFL! Get the picks now

Texas Tech recorded an impressive, 45-35 upset win over Oklahoma State on Saturday and the Red Raiders are averaging 31.6 points per game (58th) while allowing 26.2 points per contest defensively (63rd). Baylor remained unbeaten by downing K-State 31-12 this past weekend and the Bears are putting up a healthy 38.8 points per game (19th) while limiting the opposition to just 15.4 points per contest defensively (15th).
While Baylor has not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season, Texas Tech gave up a whopping 55 points to Oklahoma two weeks ago and 28 points to Arizona in another loss the week prior, not to mention the 35 points they allowed Oklahoma State to put on the board on Saturday.

More winning tips below
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Washing State vs. Arizona State Gambling Preview with @JeffNadu

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Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

So far Sunday, six NFL led by Wise Guy side. Get the picks now 

The Big Man on Campus, Jeff Nadu and guest Joe Duffy preview the Washington State vs. Arizona State contest from a gambling standpoint. ASU is laying -1 with a total of 58.5 at Bovada. Shop around on the total because both 58 and 59 can be had. The Sun Devils opened -2 and 57.5. Though 57 percent of bets are on Arizona State, 53 percent of the cash is on WSU.

The experts break it down!