All posts by Joe Duffy

Top Vegas Experts & Vegas Insiders Preview Tonight’s Game

The Gamecocks of South Carolina host the Wildcats of
Kentucky. The staff of OffshoreInsiders.com
takes a look at key computer betting trends. All records are against
the spread.

Kentucky is
9-2 off a straight up win in their last 11 and 20-8 going back further. They
have covered seven straight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous
game and also on a perfect 6-0 run to teams with a winning record.

However, South Carolina
is 12-3 off a game in which they forced one or fewer turnovers. They are 7-0 teams
with a winning record and 10-1 after allowing less than 170 passing yards in
their previous game. The GoCocks are also 20-7 to the bookmakers after allowing less
than 275 total yards in their last game.

This year, Kentucky
is 5-0 straight up and 4-0 in the wallet according to the online sportsbooks. USC is 4-1 outright, but
after failing to cover their opening game to Louisiana Lafayette, they have
covered three straight lined games.

From a standpoint of betting on the total, the Gamecocks
have gone over 10-2 to teams averaging more than 6.25 yards per play, while the
Wildcats have gone under 7-0 on the road when playing against teams with a
winning record.

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Kentucky-South Carolina Sports Betting Preview

Kentucky-South Carolina gives sports gamblers one of the
best betting opportunities of the year for a nationally televised game on ESPN according
to several professional gamblers.

Sportsbooks
have South Carolina as a 3.5
point favorite with an over/under of 58. The premier sports
betting expert
Joe Duffy of GodsTips and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
has explained how elite gamblers exploit statistics
the media rarely talks about.

So let’s take a look at those key betting numbers. Kentucky’s
offense has been remarkable averaging 5.8 yards per rush against teams normally
allowing 4.9 and 7.7 passing yards per attempt against teams normally allowing
6.7. Overall they get .7 more yards per play than their opponents normally give
up.

The Wildcats defense is actually better than many would
think. They allow just 5.7 yards per pass to teams normally getting 6.9 and
they hold opponents to a full half-yard below their normal average.

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South Carolina,
meanwhile, gets 5.3 yards per play against teams normally allowing 5.0, but in
what is not so Steve Spurrier like, it’s the defense carrying them. The
Gamecocks allow 4.4 yards per play to teams normally getting 5.0.

Not surprisingly, USC is a better team at home, averaging
34.7 points per game in three contests while allowing 12.7.

OffshoreInsiders.com
is your one-stop shop for college football. We have the latest live odds, plus CFB
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, CFB
Matchups
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Matchups
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Trend Sheet
with ATS info, CFB
Game Reports
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Beer

Although we all work for different entities, several of us
professional handicappers have been known to gather for a few beers at various
watering holes around Atlanta. The
Real Animal, Oscar Charles Dooley, our favorite of the sports advisors Trace
Adams, all at one time worked together, first at the scorephone know known as scoresandodds or sometimes Sports.com or the Sports
Advisors. Then we went to Freescoreboard.com, which like scoresandodds,
we decided to confuse people by also calling ourselves Scorephone.com. Actually scores-and-odds is
also known as Vegas Advisors, I believe.

Anyway, if the Phillies and the Yankees make it to the
World Series, it could be a grudge match between Trace Adams, a Yankee fan and
me a Phillies fan. The loser has to go on a date with the androgynous Dooley.

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Marshall-Memphis Sports Betting Preview

The Marshall Thundering Herd and the Memphis Tigers will both be trying to
pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Liberty Bowl.

The top Online
Sportsbook
has the Tigers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Thundering
Herd, while the game’s total is sitting at 60.

The Thunderding Herd were crushed 40-14 last week
by the Cincinnati Bearcats, as 24.5-point underdogs. The 54 points were a PUSH
against the posted total of 54.

Bernard Morris completed 20-of-30 pass attempts for 255 yards with two
touchdowns in a losing effort.

The Tigers got up early, and failed ot hold on in a 35-31 loss last time out. The Tigers failed
to cover the 6-point spread at home, while the 66 runs made it OVER the posted
total of 62.

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The Tigers had two rushing touchdowns, and Martin Hankins caught another in
the loss.

Current streak:
Marshall has lost 4 straight games.
Memphis has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Marshall: 0-4 SU, 1-2 ATS
Memphis: 1-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS

Marshall most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6

Memphis most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marshall’s last 6 games on the road
Marshall is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Marshall is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Marshall is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
Memphis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

Next up:
Marshall at Tulsa,
Saturday, October 13
Memphis home to Middle Tennessee,
Saturday, October 13

 


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NFL

Wise Guy…

MINNESOTA +2 Green Bay

Minnesota
has the league’s best run defense and a great one-two punch at running back
with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. Yes Taylor
is expected to play and start. Who starts at QB for Minnesota,
really isn’t as important because there is no edge in the raw quarterback of
the future versus the journey of Kelly Holcomb.

We are sold on Green Bay
being a good team, but not on the verge of being 4-0 squad. Going with any team
on the moneyline after a loss of 6 or less against foe after scoring 25 or more
points in two straight games is +81.6 on the moneyline.

NY GIANTS +3 Philadelphia

The Eagles personify both ends of one of our gambling
Golden Rules: each week there are 3-5 teams that are not nearly as good as they
looked and 3-5 teams that are not nearly as bad as they’ve looked.

Remember, Philly put it all together after looking abysmal
in Weeks one and two. Philly’s Brian Westbrook is a gametime
decision, but we don’t expect him to be 100 percent even if he plays. He is
huge for Philly. He did not practice this week. Meanwhile, our sources tell us
key Giants weapons Plaxico Burress will start.

Major…

SEATTLE -2 San Francisco

Shaun Alexander will wear down the league’s No. 25 run
defense. Though we are actually sold on
the 49ers being a team on the verge of breaking out, they are without key chain
mover tight end Vernon Davis.

Seattle can
also move the ball in the air as they average 7.4 passing yards per attempt
against teams normally allowing 6.4. Seattle’s
domination of San Francisco
suffered a setback last year when they were swept.

To be sure, the formula for beating Seattle
will be more complicated than it was last season. In both games, the 49ers kept
pounding running back Frank Gore into the line and when he broke into the
secondary, the Seahawks safeties tackled – or rather, didn’t tackle – like Chickenhawks. Holmgren didn’t
mess around. He dumped both of the old safeties last winter and signed two new
ones, Deon Grant (from Jacksonville)
and Brian Russell (from Cleveland).

Grant and Russell can tackle. With Alexander and Hasselbeck both in the
line-up, which was not the case last year, they are one of the top teams in the
NFC. They get the win today.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 -115 Denver

The last two times Denver
has come to Indianapolis, the Colts
scored 90 points. This is a competitor consensus. If we do not have a lean towards one side but
it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or
consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a
“competitor consensus”.

ARIZONA +230 (Moneyline) Pittsburgh

Arizona’s
head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm know the Steelers
as well as their current coaching staff. Going with any team on the moneyline
after a loss of 6 or less against foe after scoring 25 or more points in two
straight games is +81.6 on the moneyline.

ATLANTA +3 Houston

Houston’s best
weapons Ahman Green is likely out and Andre Johnson
is out. Houston may be without
three of their top five receivers. Atlanta
has a very winnable game. While we
singled out Houston as a dark horse
team before the year, it was because of several weapons they will be without
today.

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Fantasy Football and Sports Betting News and Notes

Here are real-time fantasy football and
football betting news and notes for today’s NFL directly from the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

 

In an ugly battle, the Raiders take on the Dolphins. Dante
Culpepper gets the start for Oakland
at quarterback. Miami is a
four-point favorite (NFL betting odds). For the
Fins, middle linebacker Zach Thomas is a game time decision.

 

Speaking of game time decisions, Houston
running back Ahman Green is just that, with Ron Dayne his replacement. They will be sans big weapon, wide
receiver Andre Johnson. Playing at Atlanta,
the Texans are 2.5 point road favorites according to BetUs
Sportsbook

The Ravens are laying four-points on the road to the
Browns. Cleveland
tight end Kellen Winslow says he will play. The
headline on this game for NFL bettors is that it’s a Level 5 play from Stevie
Vincent, Senior Handicapper at OffshoreInsiders.com

 

Vincent is a sensational 11-4 the last two weeks in
football, a smooth 73.3 percent.

 

The Rams are without running back Steven Jackson, who led
the NFL in total yards from scrimmage last year. St. Louis
is getting 13 points from Dallas
according to NewBodog

 

The Bears are laying three-points at the Detroit Lions, but Chicago
has several injuries on defense. They will be without starting cornerbacks
Charles Tillman and Nate Vasher.
Meanwhile defensive tackle Tommie Harris and linebacker Lance Briggs are
questionable.

 

Detroit’s star
weapon, wideout Calvin Johnson is also a game time
decision.

 

Tampa is getting three-points at Carolina according to BetUs
Sportsbook
, but the home favorites are without quarterback Jake Delhomme
and instead have journeyman David Carr starting. The Panthers are also without
linebacker Dan Morgan.

 

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Fantasy Football and Sports Betting News and Notes For Week 4

Here are sports betting and fantasy football
news and notes for Sunday’s action.

Houston-Atlanta

So-called “intangibles” handicappers, note that Houston
starting quarterback Matt Schaub returns to Atlanta
where he backed up disgraced signal caller Michael Vick. Houston
running back Ahman Green is questionable and wide receiver Andre Johnson is
likely out.

Green Bay-Minnesota

Green Bay,
with Dallas, is one of two NFC
undefeated teams. The Packers have a seven-game winning streak dating back to
last year, the longest in the NFL. Minnesota,
much like last year, has a dominant run defense. They allow a conference best 67.3 yards per
game. Though Pack QB Brett Favre lost nine of his first 11 starts at the
Metrodome, he has turned it around winning 3-of-4 in the Twin Cities.

Who will start at quarterback for Minnesota,
Tarvaris Jackson or Kelly Holcomb, still remains to be seen. NFL guru, Mike Godsey of GodsTips, echoes a
common theme among sharpies, “It’s not that consequential from a handicapping
standpoint. Jackson will have
growing pains and the jury is still out. Holcomb is what he is—a journeyman
emergency starter.”

Oakland-Miami

Dante Culpepper gets the start at QB for Oakland.
Culpepper is another quarterback returning to play the team he played for last
year. Fresh off a knee injury, he had a career worst season in his brief four-game
stint with the Fins. Miami
is 6-0 straight up in the series.

Bears-Lions

As the world knows, the Bears have finally benched
incompetent quarterback Rex Grossman in favor of Brian Griese. Chicago
has some injuries on defense. Defensive tackle Tommy Harris is doubtful. Starting linebacker Lance Briggs is
questionable to probable and starting cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nate
Vasher are questionable.

Rams-Cowboys

Admitting he has not fully handicapped this game in
particular, OffshoreInsiders.com expert Cy
McCormick of the MasterLockLine, warns “beware the oddsmakers know the public
will love an undefeated home team against a winless road team,” while
emphasizing it’s a rule of thumb, he continued, “the betting value is almost
always with the road team.”

Neutralizing that fact is that the Rams will be without
Steven Jackson, who led the NFL in yards from scrimmage last year. Dallas
defense is improving each week allowing just 10 points and 239 yards to Chicago
last week. But then again, it was the
Bears and Rex Grossman.

Note that a major conglomerate owns several radio tout
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Ravens-Browns

Baltimore was
6-2 outright on the road last year. They
are 5-3 at Cleveland. Starting
quarterback Steve McNair is hurting and head coach Brian Billick promised to be
“cautious”. Former starter Kyle Boller has shown some spark in relief.

Browns running back Jamal Lewis will have extra incentive
going against his former team which cut him despite being the franchise leader
in total yards and touchdowns. In the last nine series matchups, Cleveland
has been held to 256 yards or less.

Jets-Bills

A healthy Jets quarterback Chad Pennington goes against a
ravaged Bills defense. Also, Buffalo
starting quarterback J.P. Losman is likely out with a knee injury which means
rookie Trent Edwards gets the call.

Seahawks-49ers

Seattle’s
Shaun Alexander will play with a broken wrist. San
Francisco
will be without Vernon Davis, their reliable
target at tight end. Second half bettors note that Seattle
has given up only 17 combined second half points. The Niners swept the series last year
following a six game Hawk winning streak.

Buccaneers-Panthers

David Carr appears the likely starter at QB for Carolina
as Jake Delhomme has an elbow injury. Carolina
is 7-1 straight up to Tampa, but
with Delhomme as the starter. Tampa,
led by new quarterback Jeff Garcia, has averaged 27.5 points per game in their
last two. Oft injured Panther middle linebacker Dan Morgan is questionable with
an ankle injury.

Chiefs-Chargers

KC ranks 31st of 32 teams in scoring at 8.7.

Denver-Indianapolis

“Indy has all the makings of a top dichotomous ATS and SU
team,” says OffshoreInsiders.com NFL Guru Mike Godsey of GodsTips. Often used
in the NBA, he explains, “We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven
to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around the Net,
basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa,
you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under
or overvalued.” The Colts are 3-0 SU,
yet just 1-2 in the back pocket.

The Colts are 19-2 straight up in September under Tony
Dungy including 11 straight wins. Denver
is the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. However, their last two trips to Indianapolis,
they’ve allowed a combined 90 points.

Steelers-Cardinals

Arizona’s
head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm know the Steelers
players and many think one of them should have gotten the job that went to Mike
Tomlin. Pittsburgh has outscored
their first three teams by 97-26. Pittsburgh
is 13-1 straight up to the AFC, but will likely be without top wide receiver
Hines Ward.

Arizona is
1-2 with all three games being decided by a field goal in the closing seconds.

Eagles-Giants

Eagle’s running back Brian Westbrook is questionable.
Giants are without their top running back Brandon Jacobs. Their top weapon
Plaxico Burress is seeing a specialist because his injured ankle is not
improving.

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