The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday evening football in a start time made possible thanks to the disaster that is 2020. Each team is 4-1 SU and 3-2 in the back pocket. As the over-under is concerned, KC is 2-2-1 but Buffalo is 4-0-1 to the over. In fact, each team is off their first loss of the season. Teams off a loss in a game in which they were laying at least 9.5 bounce back to the tune of 101-72-5, though only 2-5 the last seven. This includes 63-40 on the road. This super system favors the Chiefs. Teams with at least three wins and off their first loss, when it is a blowout of 25 or more points, are 0-6 ats since 1992. That would say to fade Buffalo and bet on KC. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .800 or better are 61-40-3. This would favor Buffalo.
Odds: The Chiefs opened up at -3.5 and 58, but are up to -5.5, though the total has dropped to 55.5.
Public betting percentages: As is almost always the case, the public is betting the road favorite with 64 percent of bets and 87 percent of cash on KC. A slight majority of 55 percent of tickets are on the over, with 52 percent of money on under.
Power ratings: The premier power ratings say Kansas City should be -6.5 and 50.5 with a projected final of the Chiefs winning 28-21.
Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found KC covering the -5.5 by 51 percent, with 62 percent going under the 55.5. Their projected final is 29-22 in favor of the road teams. The other elite simulator has KC covering 53.9 percent of the time with 56.6 percent exceeding the total. Their game projection has KC winning by an average of 32.8-26.3.
Against the spread trends: Kansas City is 8-1 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo is 6-2 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo 7-3 series.
Over-under trends: KC over 11-4 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Promised made, promises delivered does it again. The outlier start that could only happen in 2020 is behind us. Winning days Saturday and Sunday, including 7-1 Sunday, sweeping Wise Guys led by NFL Game of the Year Detroit in a beatdown. In fact, the only NFL winner we had to sweat was big underdog Bengals blowing a 21-point lead but holding on.
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